5 on 5: Trading The #12 Pick

May 23rd, 2015 | by Aaron Hefner
Dennis Lindsey, from June. (Getty Images)

Dennis Lindsey, from June. (Getty Images)

1.  Jazz trade #12, OKC 1st, & Trey Burke to the New Orleans Pelicans for Jrue Holiday

Ben Dowsett: All day, and twice on Sundays. I wrote about Holiday recently, and think he’s a great target for the Jazz. I don’t see New Orleans letting him go this cheap, and think someone like Trevor Booker (at minimum) or another rotation player would need to be involved.

Andy Larsen: I like this idea quite a bit, though wonder if the Pelicans agree to it. While the Jazz love Dante, Holiday is a great replacement for the minutes Burke was using last year, and great insurance in case Exum doesn’t improve. His size fits perfectly in the Jazz’s lengthy defensive system.

D. Clarke Evans/NBAE via Getty Images

D. Clarke Evans/NBAE via Getty Images

Denim Millward: Where do I sign? Holiday upgrades Utah’s biggest position of need and gives the Jazz a more-than-capable scorer and facilitator. I think the Jazz would jump at this or a similar deal, as it’s a great opportunity to combine the assets that have been compiled and convert them to a tailored fit for the team.

Matt Pacenza: Yes. Holiday is a plus defender who is young and improving – with a shaky injury history. If he stays healthy, he’s almost certainly better than any PG on the Jazz roster. It’s worth $20 million over two years and two middling draft picks to find out.

David J. Smith: Absolutely yes. Holiday would be a major difference maker. While injuries are a concern, he would add an established distributor, shooter, and defender to the mix as a third guard. In this deal, Utah would getting a 24-year old former All-Star for one valuable asset (#12), a late first, and a struggling Burke. You have to do this, if it became a possibility.

 

2.  Jazz trade #12, OKC 1st, GSW 2017 1st, Rodney Hood, & Trey Burke to the New York Knicks for #4 pick & Jose Calderon

Ben Dowsett: The only way I’d consider this is if it was made during the draft, with D’Angelo Russell still available at 4 – and even then, it’d give me pause. Hood and three first-round picks are a hefty price to pay, both future-wise and right away.

Andy Larsen: To me, this trade only makes sense if D’Angelo Russell is still on the board. Russell projects statistically as an excellent draft prospect, one just as likely to be a star as Towns and Okafor. I suspect, though, that Phil Jackson won’t want to trade his first splash in NYC for a bench of lesser assets.

Nathaniel Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

Nathaniel Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

Denim Millward: My knee-jerk reaction was a quick no, but the more I consider the deal, the more I think I’d do it. Though the mere thought of giving Hood away this early in his career is stomach churning, this is your home-run swing opportunity to nab a superstar without sending out a key component of your team in return. The only question now is who would the Jazz pick, D’Angelo Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay?

Matt Pacenza: Yes, but there is no way the Knicks make this trade. Let’s say Burke-Calderon are a wash (the latter is better, but the former could improve) you’re basically trading the #4 pick this year (someone you’d hope could be an All Star) for four mid-to late first rounders (i.e. bench players.)

David J. Smith: If D’Angelo Russell is available at #4, yes. He is the real deal. For someone like Kristaps Porzingis, not sure I’d swing on this one. If the former, the Jazz would surrender two valuable pieces in #12 and Hood, but three lesser ones for a potential franchise cornerstone. Plus, Calderon would be a very good vet point guard and mentor for Dante Exum.

 

3.  Jazz trade #12, Rodney Hood, Trevor Booker, & Non-Guaranteed contracts to the Golden State Warriors for David Lee, Harrison Barnes, and GSW #30 2015 pick

Ben Dowsett: Barnes is tempting, but Hood is still a big piece to give up, and Booker is better than Lee at a fraction of the cost. I likely pass and make the pick if this is my best offer.

Andy Larsen: The Jazz did have interest in acquiring Lee at the deadline, but ultimately decided flexibility was the way to go. Barnes is nice, but the Jazz would need to have decided that Lee is the best way to use their FA dollars by June 25th, something that is unlikely. They’ll want to test the waters, at least, in July.

AP Photo/Mark Humphrey

AP Photo/Mark Humphrey

Denim Millward: I’m laughing as I hang up the phone on this one. You’re essentially bailing on Hood’s future potential, trading a key energy guy and beloved cereal enthusiast, and assuming the albatross of David Lee’s contract (albeit expiring), and trading down 18 spots for Harrison Barnes, a guy I like but don’t love. No deal.

Matt Pacenza: No. I’m just not that excited about Barnes. Yes, he’s young, but even as the fourth or fifth option on the Warriors, his PER was only 13. Is he definitely better than Hood? I also really don’t want to watch Lee lumber up the court for $15 million next year.

David J. Smith: Yes. Lee is due $15.5M, but is expiring. While his defense is atrocious, he is one year removed from 18 and 9 – a potentially nice scorer off the pine. The real prize, though, would be Barnes, who has been quietly terrific in the postseason. He has tremendous upside. Losing Hood would sting, but getting #30, too, would be a boon.

 

4.  Jazz trade #12, OKC 1st, Trey Burke, & Trevor Booker to the Toronto Raptors for Grevis Vasquez, Patrick Patterson, & #20 pick

Ben Dowsett: This one is pretty close, but I think I’d do it to add some very cheap shooting in Patterson. Dennis Lindsey and his group have proven they can strike gold on later first round picks.

Andy Larsen: I understand the proposal here: the Jazz would fill two items of need in backup PG and shooting big. But Patterson and Vasquez are not big enough upgrades on Burke or Booker to justify giving up a pick and downgrading from 12 to 20 in a 15 player draft, in my opinion.

Layne Murdoch Jr./NBAE via Getty Images

Layne Murdoch Jr./NBAE via Getty Images

Denim Millward: I can’t say it’s not a fair deal, but I would pass. Utah would essentially would be shipping out a future first and trading down 8 spots for what I surmise to be a decent upgrade at point guard and a very minor upgrade on your front court depth. I don’t know Patterson would fit as well as Booker does in Quin Snyder’s offense, and Vasquez can bolt after a single season, re-opening the point guard conundrum.

Matt Pacenza: Yes, but this one is very close. Both Vasquez and Patterson are decent and on good contracts. The former would pair will with an improving Exum, while the latter is a good third stretch big for the Jazz. If they’re both good additions to the team culture, and the Jazz don’t love anyone at #12, I’d go for it.

David J. Smith: Yes. Vasquez and Patterson would address some of Utah’s offseason needs: improved shooting (particularly a stretch 4), better point guard play, and veteran contributors for depth. The fact that they are on decent contracts helps. In this transaction, #12 would be the biggest loss, but the Jazz could find a nice player at #20 or swing it in another deal.

 

5.  Jazz trade #12, GSW 2017 1st, Detroit 2017 2nd, Trevor Booker, & Bryce Cotton to the San Antonio Spurs for Tiago Splitter & Patty Mills

**This deal assumes the Spurs strongly believe they will sign LaMarcus Aldridge or Marc Gasol in free agency.

Ben Dowsett: This one would be a no for me. Just too much to give up, and Splitter adds a slightly pricey third big who can’t shoot. I’m not as high on Mills as some, and wouldn’t send two first-rounders plus the rest of that haul for those two.

Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images

Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images

Andy Larsen: While I can’t imagine Splitter would be thrilled, this deal fills the Jazz’s needs nearly perfectly with an upgrade at PG and a real, long-term, quality 3rd big. I just don’t think that the Spurs would make a decision this big without having a signed contract from LMA or Gasol, something they can’t have until 2 weeks later.

Denim Millward: Who’s on the other end of this deal? San Antonio? Then no, absolutely not. Have they EVER been on the wrong end of a player transaction? Utah sends out nothing of huge value other than this year’s pick, but I can’t see Mills playing any better elsewhere than he has in San Antonio. I also can’t remember anything memorable Splitter has done this season, other than occasionally look hilariously similar to Butthead of Beavis & Butthead fame.

Matt Pacenza: No. This one is also really tough, but I don’t think Splitter pairs well with Favors and Gobert (the Jazz need their third big to have good shooting range) and I’m just not sure how good Mills is, is anyone? It’s very similar to the Toronto trade, but those two fit better and you don’t have to give up the Warriors pick.

David J. Smith: Probably not, though Lindsey’s San Antonio connection and insights might be a factor in such a trade. Splitter’s contract does not match his production. He also has injury woes and though he would be a capable reserve, he would not stretch the floor. Mills is intriguing, but the Jazz may have a similar, change-of-pace player already in Cotton.

 

Aaron Hefner

Aaron Hefner

Aaron Hefner, a maniacal Jazz addict, currently resides in Austin, Texas. He is a recent BYU business grad and a current supply chain project manager. When not working, he enjoys quality time with his pregnant wife and his daughter. Aaron writes about the Jazz to avoid annoying his family and coworkers with NBA propaganda.
Aaron Hefner
Aaron Hefner

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13 Comments

  1. Aaron says:

    Interesting trade scenarios, with some major problems that you haven’t addressed.

    1. Good value for Jrue, which is why the Pelicans hang up as their response after asking, is that all? Even if the Jazz could pull of the trade, Jrue has been a starter for several years and is a former All Star. He’s not going to backup Exum, and in fact, Exum will get less than 20mpg with Jrue on the team, which will hamper his development.

    2. I like the idea of trading up to the #4-#6 range in this draft as there are a few players with potentially high ceilings in the range, including Mudiay, Porzingis, and Hezonja. However, this is an overpay from the Jazz side, and unfortunately, does not give the Knicks what they want to avoid a rebuild. I’ll make an alternate proposal below.

    3. This deal is screwed up. If we give up Hood, we better get something back that is really valuable as he is potentially starter quality. I like Barnes, but he plays the same position as Hayward- how is that going to work out when Barnes needs to be extended a year from now? Moreover, Lee is only going to come off the bench with a team that has a chance of a championship (he’s said it himself). He’d be cancer to the team after being asked to back up Favors.

    4. This one is tempting, but I’d rather keep the #12 and go for a stretch big on a rookie contract and try to get back into the bottom of the first round and pick up a PG there (such as Delon Wright).

    5. I’d maybe give up the OKC pick with the rest of what is offered, but not the #12. Younger guys on rookie contracts are huge. 30 yr old backup centers might be big, but not in the same way.

    I’ve said it again on this site, but leveraging Lawson (who is available) could net the Jazz a swap for the Kings #6 pick or perhaps even the Knicks #4 pick.

    The Nuggets couldn’t get two first round picks for Lawson at the trade deadline, so Trey, a future 1st and two 2nds is a reasonable offer.

    With Lawson, flip to Sacramento (George Karl loves Lawson) with #12 pick for Collison and another player (my choice would be Landry, but I would even take on Jason Thompson to get pick). One of Mudiay, Hezonja, and Porzingas will be at #6 (as will several other potentially good players).

    Alternatively, Lawson, the #12, and the OKC pick to the Knicks for #4 and Calderon. The Knicks need another star player to put next to Melo and attract a free agent or two to avoid a rebuild (which neither Phil Jackson or their owner want). Calderon is pretty much a negative asset for them at this point, but would make a great backup PG for the Jazz. The #12 pick could be used for a good stretch big for KYK or traded for another player. (For the record, this would involve Trey, two future 1sts, the #12 pick and two 2nds to pull off, and is very realistic).

  2. Mewko says:

    1. YES..
    2. No. Don’t mess around w/Team Chemistry too much. Mudiay or Winslow aren’t that enticing.
    3. HECK NO. David Lee is too expensive. I prefer Hood over Barnes
    4. Tempting, but no. There’s not much Utah can do with the 20th pick, and Booker is a fan favorite.

    5. Yes. It’s a gamble, but worth it. Patty Mills gets to mentor Burke AND Exum. Splitter fits the bill for backup center. Split 96 minutes between Gobert, Favors, and Splitter.

  3. Don says:

    Leave Hood out of this!

    He started rough with his injuries, but by the end of the season he was winning player-of-the-month awards. So when he was healthy, he was playing better than Wiggins!

    How sure are we that he doesn’t have the potential to be in the same ballpark as Wiggins?

    It seems like a stretch, but once healthy, he proved his potential on the court.

    • Mewko says:

      I wouldn’t be so optimistic on an 18 game sample size. Alec Burks also showed flashes of being a 20 pt. scorer at the end of 2013-14. I predicted he would be the most improved player on the Jazz, and take the leading-scorer load.

      It turns out that starter’s minutes are more grueling, because you have to guard starting wings, initiate plays against a defense of starting-caliber players. It’s a lot harder than lighting up the 2nd unit.

  4. Chris says:

    Ty lawson does not like utah, is 5’8 and not worth the investment, please stop bringing up ty lawson

    • Aaron says:

      You either need to actually read the post, or work on your comprehension skills. No where do I say that the Jazz sign and keep Lawson.

  5. Spencer says:

    I say no in all regards. #1 is the only one that gives pause, but Exum still has potential to be the best player on the Jazz. I agree with Aaron here.

    I honestly don’t know why the Jazz would trade for anyone who is not LeBron, Kevin, Russell, Curry, Thompson, Davis. In other words the absolute untouchables.

    Kawaii Leonard, Butler, Carroll, Millsap, Middleton, Wesley Mathews, Danny Green, Tobias Harris are all free agents. All but Harris are surefire team players who love to win. With the talent and coaching here they will at least listen.

    I personally like Hood better than Barnes as well. I believe that Hood has the intelligence and skill to be an all-star. He has Klay-Thompson potential I believe.

    Many of the free-agents this summer seem to be the exact type of players the Jazz would love and who would consider the Jazz. I think/say we get one.

    Draft one of Looney, Stanely Johnson, Oubre, Booker, Kaminsky, Dekker, and let the PG position develop one more year before you make changes. We really couldn’t ask for a better combination of potential, skill-set and attitude at the point right now.

  6. Matt Pacenza says:

    I like how much disagreement there is among the five of us — and then the commenters. I do think that nearly all of you overvalue mid- to late- first round draft picks.

    Here’s an interesting study: http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

    So the “average” #12 pick is someone like Nick Collison. Now, I like Collison, but he’s what: a serviceable 3rd big? And the average #25 pick (roughly what the Warriors and/or Thunder pick might be) is Tracy Jackson, John Morton. If you say: Who? Then I agree. Who?

    I’m pro-trade for those reasons. I think the Jazz are a near playoff team. Meaning that they’re done with lottery picks. Their picks won’t be, and the extra #1s won’t be either. Maybe they can package several of these picks to move up, but I’m not sure that will work. Time to go sign/trade for some guys.

  7. Jeremy says:

    What do you think of trading our #12 pick for JJ redick? The clippers need to salary dump, they want draft picks and he fills a shooting need for the Jazz.

  8. Aaron Orgill says:

    I’m not one to get too serious and go on the offensive about made-up trades, but it’s a joke that anyone said yes to the #2 scenario. That’s a total of FIVE first-round draft picks, including Hood and a lottery pick this year, for #4 and Calderon? You people must think DeAngelo Russell is the next Jordan. I think he’ll have a nice career, better than Evan Turner, potentially a little bit better than Alec Burks, but we’ve already got him, and at a nice price. Burke, Hood, and ONE first-rounder for Calderon and #4, I’d have to consider. I can’t see Dennis Lindsey doing your version of the deal unless he’s convinced Russell is a future perennial all-NBA first-teamer.

    • Mewko says:

      The prospects in this draft don’t have much star potential. There’s a little star potential at the top, but its unlikely they’ll reach it.

      Complimentary star: Karl-Anthony Towns

      Borderline All-star: Jahlil Okafor, D’Angelo Russell

      4th or 5th wheels: Justise Winslow, Emmanuel Mudiay, Kristaps Porzingis, Willie Cauley-Stein, Stanley Johnson, Mario Hezonja, Devin Booker, Frank Kaminsky, Jerian Grant

      Bench players: Sam Dekker, Trey Lyles, Myles Turner, Cameron Payne, RJ Hunter, Bobby Portis, Kelly Oubre, Montrezl Harrell, Delon Wright, Kevon Looney.

  9. Kimball says:

    My initial inclination is to say no to all of them. I’m now on board the first two, but am not OK with any of the others.

    1. Jrue is overrated and never should have been an all star. He put up inflated numbers (17/8) in the Eastern Conference on a bad team. Still, a 15/7 pg with solid D would make a huge difference on our team right now. I think I’d say yes to this one, but NO would not go for it and giving up more would not be worth it for the Jazz.

    2. I’d hate to give up Hood as I could see him ending up better than the player we take at #4. That said, I’m no expert on prospects, so if one of the available players at #4 is projected to be a star, you have to do it.

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