DeMarre Carroll’s War on Possessions

Andy Larsen —  May 23, 2013 — 6 Comments

dmc

In today’s basketball analytics paradigm, all of the talk is on efficiency, and for good reason: efficiency is highly correlated with winning. Per possession statistics like Offensive and Defensive Rating, and Synergy’s PPP rule the roost, and when they don’t, per shot statistics like eFG% or TS% step forward. Again, this makes sense: being efficient on both ends of the floor is obviously a good thing.

But when a player dramatically alters the possessions themselves, sometimes we analysts overlook that influence. Enter DeMarre Carroll. Last season, he shot an average-looking 46% from the field (though that was by far the best percentage of his career), and just 28.6% from 3: about average to below average overall for his position. Most look at these numbers and pigeonhole Carroll right there: wing players who can’t shoot tend not to be productive players.

DeMarre, though, is incredibly productive, by uniquely influencing the possession. Let’s look at how he does this:

GIVING PROHIBITED 

DeMarre Carroll led the Jazz last season in turnovers per 36 minutes, allowing just 1.1 in that timeframe. To give you a comparison, Gordon Hayward finished with 2.1 TO/36, Alec Burks with 2.3 TO/36, and catch-and-shooters Randy Foye and Marvin Williams ended up with 1.3 and 1.5 TO/36, respectively. Yes, he even beat out notoriously turnover-stingy Al Jefferson, who ended with 1.5 TO/36.

Carroll’s total leaves him 15th in the NBA overall amongst players with over 1000 minutes, with most of the players above him of the extreme catch-and-shoot variety (such as Steve Novak, Shane Battier, Kyle Korver, etc.). Given that estimates for the value of a turnover range from -.9 points to -1.5 points, Carroll may be giving up a point fewer per game than his counterparts in this category alone. But we’re just getting started.

EYE-POPPING OFFENSIVE REBOUND NUMBERS

I wish there were a way to make a player famous for a certain facet of their game, but alas, that generally happens through the vagaries of public opinion. DeMarre Carroll’s offensive rebounding at his position is absolutely world-class. Let’s begin with his per 36 numbers again: Carroll averages 2.8 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes, compared to just 0.9 for Gordon Hayward, 1.2 for Alec Burks, 1.1 for Marvin Williams, and 0.3 for Randy Foye. Pretty impressive, no?

But when you compare him to the league overall, Carroll really shines. DeMarre ranks first in the league (again, minimum 1000 minutes) amongst non-PF and non-Cs in offensive rebounds overall: his 2.8 ORB/36 total beating the nearest challenger, Dante Cunningham, by over 10%. Carroll is the only player amongst all PGs, SGs, and SFs to rank in the top 50. He garners 9.1% of the possible offensive rebounds when he’s in the game, another league-leading performance for his position.

This isn’t just a single season fluke either. He led the league for non-big offensive rebounding in 2011-2012.  In his second season, he played only 50 minutes. Even in his rookie season, 2009-2010, he led the league! We have very significant evidence that DeMarre Carroll is very significantly great at offensive rebounding.

The linear weights estimates (link above) for an offensive rebound seem to put the value at about 0.75 points, but I would argue that the value is even greater for Carroll: via Synergy, he averaged 1.31 PPP on his offensive rebounding scoring opportunities last season, good for 11th in the league. That improves significantly on the Jazz’s overall 1.09 points per possession on offensive rebound opportunities. This may just be wish casting, but lets put the value of an Carroll offensive rebound at 0.9 points. Doing the multiplication, he’s getting 1.5 to 2.3 more points per 36 minutes than his wing counterparts based on his offensive rebounding alone.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S “STEAL” MORE

Carroll also leads the Jazz with 1.9 steals per 36 minutes. This is again higher than his playing time competition: Hayward has 1.0 STL/36, Burks 1.1 STL/36, Foye 1.1 STL/36, and Marvin Williams finished with 0.8 STL/36.

Here, too, DeMarre Carroll compares extremely well with the rest of the league. Carroll ranks second in the league in steals per 36 minutes for a SF, and third in the league for non-guards, only Corey Brewer and Andray Blatche (strangely) finished higher. Again, the Jazz have someone who is world-class at his position at an aspect of the game.

Much like with turnovers, linear weights estimates the value of a steal at about 0.9-1.5 points. Once again, Carroll gains a point on his competition.

 

 

So how does it all add up? In these three respects of the game, Carroll is helping the Jazz by somewhere between 2.7 and 4.8 points per 36 minutes. That is a massive improvement: that jump would put the Jazz somewhere between 5th and 10th in the league in scoring margin, up from 15th. In short, the Jazz would have almost certainly made the playoffs, and may have even had home court advantage in the first round.

The brilliant part about Carroll’s season last year, however, was that he was still an effective player even ignoring his war-on-possessions specialties. Carroll’s FG% (46%) was a full 5 percentage points higher than any other season in his career, and his 0.98 PPP on personal offensive possessions was 95th in the league out of 400-500 players. The Jazz offense improved when he was on the floor, even in shooting percentage (albeit by less than 1 percent).

His defense, which I heavily attacked last year, became average this season: metrics on his performance range from somewhat below average (his 0.93 PPP allowed in Synergy) to very good (a 4 point DRTG jump when he was on the floor, via NBA.com, and his 12.6 PER allowed on 82games.com). Carroll is no longer limited to a specialist’s role.

The end result: a player who has largely eliminated his weaknesses, and improved his league-leading strengths. DeMarre Carroll’s unconventionality shouldn’t stop us from appreciating just how effective he was when on the floor last season, and a free agency offer representative of his talents should be extended.

 

In DeMarre Carroll, Utah Jazz ,
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On Kevin O’Connor’s Luck

Andy Larsen —  May 21, 2013 — Leave a comment

MoWillIntro

Kevin O’Connor’s probably wearing his lucky green today. But will he be so sad tonight?

Kevin O’Connor has reason to complain. Just 14 months ago on March 21, 2012, the Jazz seemed to have their 2012 pick perfectly positioned. After acquiring a 2012 Golden State (top-7 protected) first round pick in the Deron Williams trade, the Warriors seemed to be doing their part with a record (19-25) just 6 games below .500, good for the 9th worst record in the league. Even better, they had amassed a 4 game “lead” on the 7th worst spot, making it probable that they didn’t slip back down to keep their pick. Unfortunately for Jazz fans, the Warriors went just 4-18 for the rest of the season, and ended up in a tie for the 7th lottery position.

(Just how likely was Golden State’s collapse? Treating each game as an independent outcome, and using a chi-squared test, the probability of a team that had started the season with a 19-25 record to finish it with a 4-18 streak is just 4.4%. Of course, each game in an NBA season is not independent: injuries can (and did) happen, a team’s schedule can become more difficult, and fatigue can begin to set in. Those factors do increase the odds of a team’s collapse many times over, but even given the compounding nature of these losses, the odds were very slim.)

However, the draft pick was still within reach. While no lottery balls were exchanged, on April 27th, the NBA flipped a coin to determine who would keep the 7th spot if no draft order changes took place between the Warriors and Raptors. The Jazz had a 50/50 chance of keeping their pick, but lost that chance when the coin flip came up heads for the Warriors.

Opportunity #3 for the Jazz to keep their pick came on lottery night. The Jazz still had one final possibility: if a team in the 8th-14th slots of the lottery had their lottery combination called, it would move themselves up to the top 3 slots and bump all the other teams down, creating a domino effect that would see Utah keep its pick. The odds of this: 27.34%.  Indeed, there was a lot of discussion that the Warriors would give up an asset to hedge away that chance they could lose the pick. Utah’s asking price, however, was too steep, and no hedge-away trade occurred. This again was to the Warriors benefit, as the bottom half of the lottery held. They had cleared the final hurdle, and in the process, broke Utah’s hearts. There would be no addition to Utah’s young core.

Even worse, the Warriors surprised the NBA in the 2012-2013 season, moving up to the 10th best record in the league. The Jazz are now stuck drafting 21st, rather than the top 10 pick they could have so reasonably expected less than a year ago. Given the sequence of events of last season, it’s clear why O’Connor feels he’s unlucky.

But it’s worth remembering that he attended the draft lottery in 2011 as well, and on that night (captured in this grainy Youtube video) the Jazz moved up from the 6th slot to number 3, despite having just a 25.23% chance at doing so. With the 3rd pick, the Jazz drafted Enes Kanter, who looks like a good NBA player. The 6th pick? Jan Vesely, the hero of the entertainingly sparse @JanVeselyStats Twitter account. That’s a massive break for the Jazz.

Indeed, even ignoring the specific players involved, the luck “tradeoff” seems to make come out favorably for the Jazz. Check out this study done by 82games.com in 2008:

draftpickstats

 

The rating system used is primitive at best: it’s simply career PPG + RPG + APG. That being said, it nevertheless illustrates the point quite nicely: the graph of the expected output of any draft pick is non-linear. The drop off from the 3rd pick to the 6th pick is about 7.3 rating points, whereas the dropoff from the 8th pick all the way down to the 21st is just 2.1 rating points! Even after applying a smoothing function to help balance out the influence of luck (for example, the fact that the 21st pick is a better bet than the 15th pick), it’s clear: the expected output difference between the 3rd and 6th pick is greater than or equal to the difference between the 8th and 21st. KOC may have better luck than he thinks.

Of course, going into tonight’s lottery, the Jazz have just a 1.82% chance of moving up into the top 3. Both Kevin O’Connor and Randy Rigby are going to need an exceptional bit of luck (or some general managing skill) to see the Jazz draft anywhere but 14th come June 27th.

In Draft, Utah Jazz
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Lotto Time!

Jackson Rudd —  May 21, 2013 — Leave a comment

LOTTO TIME

 

Please disregard the fact that the screenshot clearly states that this occurred at 1:03 AM last night and pretend like I nailed it on the first try.

I believe.

In Utah Jazz
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The Winning-est Winners of All

Andy Larsen —  May 20, 2013 — Leave a comment

phs-hoops-throwback

“Oh the places you’ll go! There is fun to be done! There are points to be scored. There are games to be won. And the magical things you can do with that ball will make you the winning-est winner of all.”  ― Dr. Seuss, Oh, the Places You’ll Go!

You’ve probably heard the news by now. Spencer Hall, the visionary leader and founder of this fine Utah Jazz website is stepping into an advisory role, after taking an incredible new job as the news director at KSL.com. Spencer will continue to own the site, but he’s appointed me to continue the day-to-day work here at Salt City Hoops in the role of managing editor.

First of all, I am incredibly impressed at the work Spencer has put into this site and the Salt City Hoops brand. Spencer’s writing, professional-yet-personable social media presence, radio show, and work covering the Jazz at games and practice have been top notch. As a result, Spencer is a universally respected figure in Jazz circles and will be missed as a regular contributor. You can continue to follow Spencer’s basketball thoughts on Twitter at @saltcityhoops and his grown-up feed at @spencerhall.

I want to thank SB Nation and the SLCDunk.com family for the opportunity to contribute. It was a fantastic outlet to share my research and ideas. SLCDunk is the largest and most-visited Utah Jazz blog because of the relentless work of Basketball John, Amar, Clark, Diana, Moni, Peter, Spencer Campbell, Yucca, Dustin, and others. Don’t worry: This doesn’t portend a blog war. Amar and the SLCDunk crew have been incredibly supportive of this opportunity for me and I look forward to collaborating with the entire Jazz blog community on roundtables, podcasts, and other formats to bring the best voices to Jazz fans.

Personally, I can’t begin to tell you how excited I am to take on this role with Salt City Hoops and the ESPN TrueHoop Network. To have the opportunity to represent Jazz fans in such an important way is a dream come true. I hope to live up to the high expectations of the uniquely passionate and intelligent Jazz fanbase.

The trademark of Salt City Hoops has always been very high-quality writing and that will not change. However, we want more of it. We want to be the outlet of choice for journalists, media personalities, super fans, statisticians, clever writers, videographers, absurdists, artists, and capologists. We’ve already received an overwhelming response from people interested in contributing and we’ll always be looking for great original submissions. Drop us line at saltcityhoops@gmail.com and help us showcase your work.

Expect daily content and a bigger team of contributors. We’ll also be expanding our multimedia reporting with more podcasts and videos, as well as continuing the Saturday Show on 1280 The Zone, the Jazz flagship radio station. A site re-design is in the cards, as well as an online store to pick up hot Salt City Hoops merchandise (you know you want it). As with everything else, I welcome your ideas and input.

In sum, this is an exciting time for Salt City Hoops and the Utah Jazz community. Great things are in the works. We’re hoping that as a result, everyone in Jazzland will be the winning-est winners of all.

In Announcements
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Salt City Hoops 2.0

Spencer Hall —  May 20, 2013 — Leave a comment

Hayward contemplates the future

After more than four years on the Jazz beat for the ESPN TrueHoop Network, some changes are in the works. As many of you know, I recently accepted a position as the news director at KSL.com. In order to deliver the finest in news and opinion on the Utah Jazz, I’m excited to introduce Andy B. Larsen as the new managing editor for the site.

Andy is a well-known member of the online Jazz family, contributing statistical analysis and clever writing all over the place — most recently for SB Nation at SLCDunk.com. Though a graduate of Westminster College in Salt Lake City, lifelong Jazz fan, and prodigious writer, his most important accomplishment was probably celebrating the end of the NBA lockout with me and @shandonfan at Dee’s in Sugarhouse at 3 o’clock in the morning. Andy stunned us by ordering (and finishing) a gigantic plate of spaghetti and meatballs despite the early hour. I needed no further proof of his credentials as a blogger.

I’ll continue to own the site and oversee the editorial direction as the Chairman of the Board (because that’s the kind of thing you do when you rule by fiat). I’ll also continue to tweet about basketball and nonsense from @saltcityhoops. You can follow my other thoughts at @spencerhall. Both handles work for Instagram, too, if you’re into that.

Jackson Rudd and Evan Hall (no relation) will join me and Jeff Lind on the Board of Directors, helping Andy as he assembles his world-class team of contributors.

On a personal note, it’s been a thrill to build the Salt City Hoops brand and represent the ESPN TrueHoop Network since 2009. So many of you have been incredibly kind and supportive over the years. A special thanks goes out to the gentleman/scholar Kurt Kragthorpe of the Salt Lake Tribune for allowing me to use him as a mentor. I delivered the Deseret News (where he used to write) as a kid and read everything Kurt ever wrote. Even though I pestered him with a million questions, he graciously treated me like a respected colleague from the minute I arrived on the Jazz beat and I’ll forever be thankful.

A special shout out to Jeremiah Jensen at KSL for helping launch our Retro Jazz project; to Dave Fox at KUTV for treating me like a superstar every time I appeared on his show; to Scott Garrard at 1280 The Zone for taking a chance on me and letting me host the Saturday Show on the Jazz flagship station; to Jody Gennesy at the Deseret News for his help and friendship and great humor; to Lisa Carricaburu and the sports team at the Salt Lake Tribune for giving me the opportunity to contribute to their gameday coverage. KSL’s Jarom Moore was a big help on press row as the honorary VP of Treats and Fourth Quarter Candy, as well.

I’ll continue to participate in the greater TrueHoop Network ecosystem, so a goodbye to my ESPN people is unnecessary. That said, a big thanks to ESPN‘s Henry Abbott and Kevin Arnovitz for the opportunity to represent the Jazz in the ESPN NBA community.

Thanks for all the good times. I’m confident you’re in good hands.

In Announcements
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Jazz announce pre-draft workouts

Spencer Hall —  May 10, 2013 — Leave a comment

The Jazz will host six players on Saturday, May 11 for pre-draft workouts. (Links to Draft Express and ESPN Insider profiles).

PLAYER POSITION HT. WT. D.O.B. FROM
James Ennis (Insider) Guard 6-6 235 7/1/90 Long Beach St.
Jamelle Hagins Forward 6-9 235 10/19/90 Delaware
Colton Iverson (Insider) Center 7-0 255 6/29/89 Colorado St.
Myck Kabongo (Insider) Guard 6-1 180 1/12/92 Texas
Mike Snaer (Insider) Guard 6-5 202 6/21/90 Florida St.
Nate Wolters (Insider) Guard 6-4 190 5/15/91 South Dakota St.

Highlights:

James Ennis

Jamelle Hagins

Colton Iverson (Best name, for sure)

Myck Kabongo

Mike Snaer

Nate Wolters (53-point game)

In Utah Jazz
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Walter Bond to chat with the Saturday Show

Spencer Hall —  April 26, 2013 — Leave a comment

Tune in tomorrow The Saturday Show to listen to former Jazz guard Walter Bond talk about his time in the NBA, his motivational speaking, and his new gig hosting a new Food Network show called “Giving You The Business.”

In the premiere episode, four Famous Famiglia employees from across the country are secretly put to the test in a series of outrageous challenges designed to test their management skills. Hidden cameras capture their every move at the company’s busiest Manhattan pizzeria, and the winner will be awarded their own franchise. Franchises featured in upcoming episodes include: 16 Handles, Freshii, Jersey Mike’s Subs, La Prep, Muscle Maker Grill, Saladworks, Topper’s Pizza and Wok Box.

Walter Bond uses what he learned on the basketball court and franchise world in his many speaking engagements around the country, discussing how to excel in business with owners and employees. He is a former NBA athlete who rose from being a reserve player coming off the bench to becoming the first rookie-free agent to start for the Dallas Mavericks. This journey provides the foundation for the principles he teaches to empower people in their own lives. Today he is recognized as one of the world’s preeminent experts on personal accountability. Walter has impacted hundreds of thousands of people in his rapid rise to the top of the speaking industry.

Bond will be the second player from the 1993-94 Jazz roster to appear on the Saturday Show, joining Luther Wright. Check the video at the top of this post to get familiar with Bond’s motivational speaking. Great stuff from beginning to end.

Listen to The Saturday Show at noon MT on 97.5 FM / 1280 AM or stream it on 1280thezone.com.

FOOD NETWORK WALTER BOND

In Utah Jazz , ,
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Jazz 97 – Warriors 90: The Mo Williams Dagger Game

Spencer Hall —  April 8, 2013 — 2 Comments

[ESPN Recap]

The Jazz don’t win often on the road (this was only their third road win since January), so it was a pleasant surprise to see the hustle and fight in a crucial game. Mo Williams was at his best (25 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds and 2 steals), but there were excellent performances from the entire roster. Derrick Favors cemented his status as an elite defender, Al Jefferson was a beast (19 points, 12 rebounds), Gordon Hayward was aggressive, and Jamaal Tinsley gave the team nice contributions in relief.

With the win and the Lakers loss to the Clippers earlier in the day, the Jazz remain in the 8th spot in the West and control their own destiny. The Warriors could have clinched their Playoff status with a win and seemed to be gunning for it early. Randy Foye mentioned in the post-game interviews that the he noticed Ws coach Mark Jackson left Steph Curry in the game longer than usual in the first half.

Up next, the Jazz face the Oklahoma City Thunder at home on Tuesday. It will be very interested to see if the Jazz can match the energy from Sunday night and take advantage of the vulnerable Thunder.

In NBA
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5-on-5: Predicting the Playoffs

Spencer Hall —  April 2, 2013 — 2 Comments

5on5_fh_title

I chipped in on today’s ESPN 5-on-5 to make predictions on the fast-arriving Playoffs. Check out the piece on ESPN.com to read the rest from Kevin Arnovitz, Jim Cavan, Ian Levy, and Darius Soriano. Here are my responses:

1. Fact or Fiction: The Lakers will make the playoffs.

Spencer Ryan Hall, Salt City Hoops: Fiction. The Lakers seem like the college student who assumes his dad’s connections will get him into law school, but he never bothers to go to class or study. The rejection letter is going to be a painful wakeup call in Lakers Land. All but one of their last eight games are at Staples, but every opponent is tough.

2. Fact or Fiction: The Jazz will make the playoffs.

Hall: Fact. It’s possible I’m simply intoxicated with the euphoria of the first five-game Utah win streak of the season, but the Jazz are finally playing like a team that could make noise in the playoffs. The memory of the recent 3-12 stretch is all but gone and the team is peaking at the right time with a healthy Mo Williams.

3. Fact or Fiction: The Mavs will get to shave this season.

Hall: Fact. Mercifully, the basketball gods will rescue us from further assault by the Nowitzki Beard, starting as early as Tuesday night against the Lakers. Stealing a win in L.A. would finally put the Mavs at .500 and allow us to bring the women and children out of hiding. [The editors wisely removed my joke about the surprising upset of Dirk Nowitzki looking the most like a caveman on a roster that includes Chris Kaman.]

4. Fact or Fiction: The Knicks are contenders.

Hall: Fiction. The path to the Finals for New York will probably be Chicago (first round), Indiana (conference semis) and Miami (East finals). I would love to see J.R. Smith get a chance to go seven games against the Heat, but I’ll be surprised if the Knicks even get past the first round.

5. Fact or Fiction: Without Manu, the Spurs will be eliminated early.

Hall: Fact. Not trying to jinx anything for the Jazz, but the stars are aligning for Utah to make some noise in the playoffs. With San Antonio “struggling” without Manu, a surging Utah team might have a chance to steal some games in a first-round matchup. More probably, though, a second-round matchup with the Grizzlies or the Clippers could undo the great season in S.A.

In NBA ,
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Jazz 112 – Blazers 102: Salt Lob City

Spencer Hall —  April 2, 2013 — Leave a comment

The Jazz continued to roll last night, picking up their first five-game winning streak of the season and handling the visiting Portland Trail Blazers in fine fashion [recap]. There was a lot to like, including 24 points and 10 rebounds from Al Jefferson, the newly-named Western Conference Player of the Week. The rejuvenated Mo Williams followed up Randy Foye’s team record 8 threes on Saturday night with 6-of-7 shooting from three and 20 points.

The thing everybody wanted to talk about though was the ridiculous no-look lob from Jamaal Tinsley to Jeremy Evans in the fourth quarter. As was pointed out by Matt Harpring on the broadcast, Evans is somehow three feet behind the three-point line when the ball is lobbed by Tinsley. That’s a lot of ground to cover.

Shoutout to SB Nation’s Mike Prada for the upload and the Salt Lob City moniker.

In Utah Jazz , ,
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