There is a reason why people enjoy shopping on Black Friday.  Is it the opportunity to buy stuff?  No.  You can go to a store any day and buy till your heart is content and your wallet is empty.  Is it because stuff is cheap?  No.  You can go to Dollar Tree seven days a week.  The reason that people go shopping on Black Friday is because of the deals you can get.  Specifically they go there because of the value.  

In the NBA we tend to focus on one side of the value equation.  How much does a player help the team?  For example will the Nets make the playoffs by adding Carmelo?  The issue is that with a salary cap there is a need to look at the other side of the equation.  How much does a player cost?  The value equation in the NBA should be cost divided by production.  It is great to get a very productive player, but it is also important to look at the cost.

Based on my calculation NBA teams will pay out nearly $2 billion in salaries ranging from $24.8M to Kobe Bryant to $473,604 for a rookie like Derrick Caracter or Ishmael Smith.  There will be 1,230 games and therefore 1,230 winners.  Based on that the cost of a win for the 2010-2011 season comes in at $1.6M.  Therefore if you pay a player $1.6M in salary you should expect that player to directly contribute to one win for that player to justify his salary.  Somebody like Kobe Bryant needs to contribute to at least 15 wins to *justify his salary.

*I am not looking at any marketing aspects like how a player might affect attendance.  That is tougher to judge and instead I am more curious about a players contributions through numbers that are easily accessible.

This analysis should be extremely important to Jazz management since the ownership wants a winner, but doesn’t want to pay the luxury tax.   Based on that lets see who is providing the most value to the Jazz.  I am going to dividing each player’s salaries with how their projected wins and rank them on this cost of win statistic.   There will be a clear distinction of which Jazz players are overpaid and which ones are underpaid. 

Below is a chart with the Salary divided by the Projected Win Shares:

Any Jazz player above the line between C.J. Miles and Al Jefferson are players that are earning their salary for the Jazz.  Anyone below the line (starting with Big Al) are players who are overpaid.  The key observations of the above are:

• Paul Millsap is one the most valuable players in the league when you consider his salary ($7.6M) and production (11.2 projected win shares at a great 0.19 WS/48 minute average). 
• Deron Williams might be paid a lot of money, but he is worth every penny.
• The Jazz might not get much production out of their shooting guards (Miles and Bell), but considering what they are paid both are good deals.
• Al Jefferson is going to have to produce a lot more to justify his $13M salary.
• All Jazz fans should be glad Andrei Kirilenko’s max contract is finished after this year.
• Gordon Hayward just needs to keep improving and I see his name moving up the list.
• Mehmet Okur’s name at the bottom of the list is just because his injury has limited his time to only 4 games and 57 minutes. 

One other thing that is interesting is that if each of the players that are below-average in terms of value produced an average amount of wins per their salary then the Jazz as a team would be projected to win 62 games.  62 games would be a vast improvement over the 47-50 current win projection and take this team from being a good team into a title contending team.  This value equation hopefully sheds a little light on how the Jazz are doing from a personal standpoint.

I know that Jazz fans can be a little down right now.  Last night the Jazz lost a home game by 23 to the Atlanta Hawks.  It wasn’t an inspiring effort even if you take it account that they were without *Paul Millsap.  The team has made it a habit of falling behind early in the game and it is hard to make a double digit comeback every game.  Deron Williams acknowledged this recently in the Salt Lake City Tribune.  Also, John Hollinger’s playoff odds have the Jazz projected as the 5th seed with 47 wins.  They have a 0.7% chance of winning the championship.  Things are starting to turn negative and I would like to reverse that trend by pointing out some of the positives I have seen from the Jazz this year.

*Millsap should send the media his stats and a tape of the Hawks game to every relevant person to prove that he should be an All Star this year.

Positive 1 – Elite players- The most difficult asset for any NBA team to acquire are elite players.  Those teams that do (ex. Heat and Lakers) stand a great chance of advancing far in the playoffs.  The Jazz have two elite players in Deron Williams and Paul Millsap. Both are putting up unbelievable years.  Millsap is shooting more and making them at a higher rate.  He is playing more aggressively and is signed for a very reasonable salary for 2.5 more years.  For those of you who question whether or not he is an elite player check out the Win Shares and the Win Shares Per 48 Minutes leaders on basketball-reference.com.  He is 12th in the former (between Dwight Howard and Dirk Nowitzki) and 17th in the later.  Deron Williams is also on the list coming in at 6th and 14th respectively.  Williams continues to improve his play every single year and he has to be in the discussion of the 10 best players in the NBA.  The Jazz have the two players they can build around.

Positive 2 – Gordon Hayward - I have never been much of a Hayward fan as evidenced by my When should Jazz fans start worrying about Gordon Hayward post.  However, he has shown signs of life over 3 of the past 5 games.  David Thorpe wrote about the rookie improving in his latest rookie watch (Hayward moving up) article.  It looked like something clicked in the 2nd half of the Clippers game and since that moment Hayward looks like a different player.  If he could provide some much needed help on the wing then the Jazz will improve tremendously. 

Positive 3 – They are still in 1st place in the Northwest division.  While Hollinger’s more advanced projections might peg them for 47 wins they are winning at a pace of 54-55 wins.  I think they will still settle in around 50 wins, but maybe we have it wrong and they are really a 54-55 win team.

Positive 4 – After 36 games last year the Jazz were 2 games above 500.  This year they are 12 games above 500.  That is pretty remarkable considering how much has been written about this year’s Jazz team trying to incorporate new players like Al Jefferson, Raja Bell and Gordon Hayward.  Below is a chart graphing the wins above or below 500 for this year’s team compared to last year’s team.

Positive 5 – Al Jefferson is going to get better.  This is more of a unsubstantiated prediction than anything else, but I think Al Jefferson is going to have a much more productive 2nd half than 1st half.  Based on his career numbers he is a doing a better job blocking shots and not turning the ball over for the Jazz.  Also, his free throw percentage is at a career high at 79%.  The main difference is that he just isn’t making shots at the same rate.  His field goal percentage is a career low of 47%.  That will go up and it is important that it does because Jefferson is a key player for the Jazz team.  When he scores less 15 points or less the Jazz only win 43% of the time. When he scores more than 15 points the Jazz win 82% of the time.  Even more remarkable might be the stat that when he makes 50% or more of his shots the Jazz have won 12 out of 14 games.

This team can be frustrating to watch at times.  Also, I know that it can be tough to feel like the team is always going to be right behind the Lakers, Celtics and Spurs in the NBA standings, but keep your heads up Jazz fans because the team is close.  There are a lot of things to like about this team and this year so far and I think things are only going to get better.

Almost three months ago I sat down and tried to predict how the Jazz were going to do in the 2010-2011 season.  For those interested here is the link to that post - Steady With Sloan.  Now that we are 30 games into the season I thought I would check to see how some of my predictions are looking.   Below are my preseason Win Shares predictions compared with the current projection based off 30 games. 

Highlights:

• The Jazz have won 70% of their games, which over the course of an 82 game season would equal 57.4 wins.  This would exceed my prediction of a 50 win season.  Also, 57 wins would be good for the 1st or 2nd seed in the Western Conference over the last three years.
• Deron Williams- I predicted his Win Shares (an estimate of the number of wins an individual player will contribute) at 10.3 wins with a WS/48 of 0.177.  This was an easy prediction since those were his numbers at the end of the 2009-2010 regular season.  Right now he is on pace for 13.4 wins and a WS/48 of 0.208. One concern for Jazz fans could be his career high in minutes per game at 38 minutes.  As of now he is playing more and being more productive.  He definitely should be in the MVP discussion.
• Paul Millsap- He also has been playing more (career high in minutes per game) and being more productive (career high in WS/48) in those minutes.  I had projected his Win Shares at 8.4 and at this rate he would be contributing 12.3 wins or nearly 4 more wins than projected.  He is 10th in the league in Win Shares and WS/48 minutes.  Not bad for the 82th highest paid player in the NBA.  He should be rewarded by playing alongside Deron Williams in the All Star game.
• C.J. Miles- While I know a lot of people discredit the +/- statistic it should be noted that Miles leads the Jazz this year.  That on its own might be a fluke, but his WS/48 (current year = 0.09) is above his career average and almost to the point (0.10) of being an average NBA player.  I know it is just one game, but I was impressed with his performance when I went to Cleveland to see the Jazz-Cavs game.  Miles was one of the most active players on the floor, and he really helped the Jazz pull away from a bad Cavs team.  I had projected him to contribute 2.6 wins and right now he is on pace to beat that my one additional win.  In the Western Conference one additional win can be the difference between the 3 seed and the 5 seed. 

Lowlights

• Gordan Hayward- There is no easy way to put this, but Hayward has been one of the worse players in the NBA.  He can’t shoot (40% from the field), can’t pass (less assists in more minutes than Fesenko), can’t rebound and generally looks lost on the court.  I had projected him to contribute 4.6 wins at a rate of 0.0768 (the average rate of the 9th pick in the draft).  Right now he is projected to add 0 wins.   I don’t mean to pile on the youngster, but he really has no where to go but up.
• Raja Bell - I had projected his WS/48 at his career average of 0.085.  Right now he is at 0.063.   He is playing more minutes (partially to the fact that Hayward can’t get off the bench), but they are just not as productive as expected.
• Kyrylo Fesenko -Did anyone else think he might make a little bit of a jump this year after the experiance he got in the playoffs last year with Okur out?  Well he is hardly playing (6.2 minutes per possible game) and when he is playing he has been terrible (WS/48 of 0.031). 

Overall assessment

The Jazz winning percentage seems to suggest nothing but optimism for Jazz fans.  Williams and Millsap are playing at All Star levels.  Jefferson and Kirilenko are playing at above-average levels.  Miles and Bell are almost equaling an average shooting guard.  However, based on the Win Shares each player should be contributing I have the Jazz coming in at 49.7, which by rounding up would be right at the 50 win/6th seed in the playoff spot.  John Hollinger in his playoffs odds also projects the Jazz winning 50 games.  While that isn’t bad it definitely doesn’t mean Jazz fans should be expecting a title run with this team.  Let’s hope I am wrong.

This summer there was a minor stir created by owner Greg Miller’s “I think that the best approach for us to take as a franchise is just to be competitive” quote.  When he admitted that “we’re probably not going to win a championship, but that doesn’t mean we’re not going to give it everything we’ve got” it upset a lot of Jazz fans.  The Jazz have come very close in the past and the current team they have isn’t that far off from being a championship caliber team.  They just seem to be stuck in the tier right below the Lakers, Celtics and Spurs.   Some of the fault is usually placed on the team being in a small market and that ownership isn’t willing to spend the required amount of money.  I disagree with that.  The main reason the Jazz don’t have a championship caliber team is because they have not drafted well over the past 7 years.

When I write that the Jazz haven’t drafted well over the past 7 years I want to be fair to Jazz management.  Before I get into the negatives let me first start off with the few things the Jazz have done  well in regards to the draft:

1. Trading up to get Deron Williams.  Kevin O’Connor traded up in the draft to the 3rd pick by giving up picks that ended up being the following players: Martell Webster, Linas Kleiza and Joel Freeland for Deron Williams.  If he had stayed with the 6th pick then the players he would have been forced to draft were players like Webster, Charlie Villanueva or Channing Frye.   Wow.
2. 2006′s draft - Something must have been in the air that night because Brewer, Millsap and even to a small extent Dee Brown were great picks.  Millsap gave the Jazz leverage with Boozer and will be a great player for the Jazz for years to come.
3. Al Jefferson trade- giving up a 1st round bust (Kosta Koufus) and two protected 1st round picks (especially when you haven’t done a great job drafting) looks to be a smart move.

Without the above three things the below analysis would be even more depressing to Jazz fans.  As far as the analysis goes though I am going to compare who the Jazz drafted with the player selected right after the Jazz pick.  The reason being  is that it frustrates me when people go back through drafts and play the “what if” game.  What if the Jazz took Landry Fields instead of Gordon Hayward?  Well of course the team would be better right now, but nobody would ever have suggested to Kevin O’Connor before the draft to take Fields with the 9th overall pick.  It would have been a better pick, but it just isn’t realistic.

I could go back to 2001 (Raul Lopez instead of  the next pick Gerald Wallace)  or farther, but I would rather start with 2004 since that was a huge year for the Jazz as they had three first round picks.  Let’s look at the Jazz picks compared to the very next pick and see how the Jazz did in their draft by comparing each player’s career *Win Shares.

*Win Shares = an estimate of the number of wins that can be attributed to one player.  For a longer description check out this link.

Better pick by the Jazz: 3 times

• 2005 – C.J. Miles (7.4 WS) compared to the next pick Ricky Sanchez (0 WS). = +7.4 wins.
• 2006 – Ronnie Brewer (21 WS) compared to Cedric Simmons (0.1 WS). = +20.9
• 2006 – Paul Millsap (28.3 WS) over Vladimir Varemeenko (0 WS). +28.3
• TOTAL: +56.6 in the Jazz favor

Worse pick – 7 times

• 2004 – Kris Humphries (7.6 WS) compared to the next pick Al Jefferson (31.1 WS).  -23.5 wins
• 2004 – Kirk Snyder (4.5 WS) compared to Josh Smith (32.7 WS). -28.2.
• 2007 – Morris Almond (0 WS) compared to Aaron Brooks (10.8 WS).  -10.8.
• 2007 – Herbert Hill (o WS) compared to Ramon Sessions (8 WS).  -8
• 2008 – Kosta Koufus(1.4 WS)  compared to Serge Ibaka (6 WS).  -4.6.
• 2008 – Ante Tomic (o WS) compared to Goran Dragic (2.7 WS).  -2.7
• 2009 – Eric Maynor (2.3 WS) compared to Darren Collison (4.0 WS). -1.7
• TOTAL: – 79.5 Win Shares

Comparable picks (I excluded the random 2nd round picks like Robert Whaley if they were matched up with another bust.  Also, I am a Jazz fan and despite evidence to the contrary I rate Deron Williams as the same as Chris Paul) - 3 times

• 2005 – Deron Williams (43.7 WS) compared to Chris Paul (66.8 WS). -23.1 wins
• 2010 – Gordon Hayward (0 WS) compared to Paul George (0.1 WS). -0.1
• 2010 – Jeremy Evans (0.2 WS) over Hamady Ndiaye (0 WS). +0.2
• TOTAL: – 23 Win Shares

Overall Total:  -45.9 Win Shares.

A negative 45.9 Win Shares difference between the Jazz pick and the very next pick shows how close the Jazz have been to getting some real impact players.  What if the Jazz had drafted Jefferson and Smith in 2004 and played them very few minutes like they did with Humphries and Synder?  What if they had then drafted Chris Paul the following year?  Can you imagine a lineup with Chris Paul, Raja Bell, Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, Memhet Okur with Al Jefferson and Josh Smith coming off the bench?  Would that team have beaten the Spurs in 2007?  What about the Lakers the next three years? 

Even if you go back only 5 years or even 3 years then you see players that would help this Jazz team out.  Darren Collison would be a great backup point guard for Deron Williams and if they had to trade him like they did with Maynor he probably would have brought back more in return.  Serge Ibaka would have provided a solid inside presence to help every year against the Lakers.

Now you can see how the team I described It is pretty clear over the past seven years the Jazz have done a worse job drafting than the random teams that drafted after them.  Does this make me worry more about Gordon Hayward?  Does this make me think that Kevin O’Connor might not be the best GM at drafting?   Does this make me think more highly of Coach Sloan? (Some might think this speaks less of Coach Sloan and point to the fact that he can’t develop 1st round picks.  I disagree since I don’t know any coach in the world that would be able to make Kirk Snyder into Josh Smith.) Does this make it even more remarkable that the Jazz have been a consistent playoff team?

Yes to all of the questions in the paragraph above.

I think that if the Jazz would have made only one or two different draft picks over the past seven years then Greg Miller probably wouldn’t have had the “just to be competitive” quote this summer.  I think there would be a decent chance that the Jazz would have at least one title and would be looking at another one this year.

Normally I try to provide statistical analysis of current or former Jazz players on my posts. This is something that I would like to continue to do since I think it provides value to any statistically minded readers that come across the site.  Today is different. Today is Black Friday. In honor of that I thought I would provide a top 10 gift ideas for any Jazz fan on your shopping list.

1. Paul Millsap – white Revolution Swingman jersey – $80 – the top spot on the list goes to the perfect gift.  The new jersey looks spectacular and Millsap has been the best player on this year’s team.

2. Jazz green warm up jacket – $85 – I love the way this jacket looks, but it probably isn’t for the the shy Jazz fans since it definitely sticks out.  Something that is a little bit more understated and cheaper, but still pretty great is the Jazz 3 stripe track jacket.

3.  John Stockton retro purple jersey – $80 – This is a must have for any Jazz fans who read my John Stockton – MVP? post and agreed with all of the points.  There is much more I could (and have wrote) about Stockton and $80 is very reasonable price compared to the cost of the ultimate $250 Stockton retro jersey on Mitchell and Ness.com.  (By the way if I ever become rich I will buy copious amounts of Mitchell and Ness jerseys.)

4. Karl Malone retro green jersey – $80 – I love the green jerseys.  In fact the top gift on my list would be a green Al Jefferson Jazz jersey if I could find it anywhere.  In its place I will put this jersey of the Mailman.  However, if any of the loyal readers of this blog know where I could find a green Jefferson jersey just let me know in the comments section.

5. Jazz reversible knit hat.  $20 – I’m not much a hat guy, but this hat is pretty sweet.  However, the whole reversible thing confuses me.  I have some reversible shorts and a long time ago I decided that I liked one side more than the other.  Did I ever wear those shorts with the other side?  No.  Why would I?  It isn’t like when I was picking up shorts I was looking for something to match my entire outfit.  Maybe the reversible products have more of a market with people who are a little more concerned about options and color coordinating.

6. Jazz pendant – $42 – please give this to your girlfriend or wife just for the reaction.  And if by chance the reaction is positive then consider me impressed with your choice in mate.

7.  Jazz revolution shorts - $60 – Jerseys, pendants or other choices are really just luxury items that you might not wear often since wearing something like  a jersey in public isn’t socially acceptable.  Shorts on the other hand are something I find wearing many times over.  I wear then when I go play basketball and I also like to wear them while lounging around the house.  That is why out of all these gifts this would probably be the most useful one.

8.  Jazz women’s tshirt –  $32 – I showed this to my wife and her first response was on that the model didn’t look the typical model.  Her midsection specifically made me at least wonder a little bit if it was a gift idea for your favorite pregnant Jazz fan. Anyway that aside my wife did say she liked the shirt and would enjoy that as a Christmas present, so that is good enough for me.

9.  Nba Jam – $50 – This isn’t Jazz specific and I haven’t played it yet, but I am excited for the new installment of one of my favorite Sega games of all time.  I don’t know if it will translate to the new gaming systems, but I’m optimistic.  If you own a Wii it is supposed to be only $27 at Target and only $29 at Wal-Mart.

10. Jazz green tshirt – $24 – A pretty basic shirt, but again I like basic and also like the green logo.

That completes my first and probably only blog post that revolves around shopping as the subject.  I don’t claim to be an expert and my style is probably different than yours.  However, hopefully this list will provide some value to some readers who might need a Christmas list to give to their family.