Much has been said about the emotional toll the Deron Williams trade has brought upon Jazz fans.  Much has been written on the cause of it.  Much has been hypothesized with “what ifs”.  I would like to touch on none of that today and look at the Jazz state of affairs as it stands right now.  Where are the Jazz now and where are they going from here?

Overpriced Groceries

Many people were frustrated that the Jazz didn’t trade away Kirilenko’s albatross contract for a SG or Millsap for a capable wing.  Why would they do that?  They don’t know what this team is yet.

When I lived out in the middle of nowhere Montana I had two options for groceries.  You could get groceries at the tiny grocery store in town and pay double what those groceries were worth for the convenience of not having to drive out of town, or you could make the hour drive for less expensive groceries and get a way better value for what you paid.  If the Jazz would have traded for a SG using Kirilenko’s contract odds are they would have had to take at least 75% or more  of his contract’s value back in salaries.  Guaranteed most of those players’ salaries would not be expiring contracts.  The Jazz would have been paying for overpriced groceries.

Do you really want to pay $18 for milk?

The Jazz have a chance in the next two drafts to select at least two guys from the lottery slots.  On top of that they have a chance to select four players from the lottery slots. FOUR!  What teams have four lottery picks in the next two drafts?  Here’s another thing to think about: how many teams will have had 6 lottery picks from 2010-2012? 1.  If the cards fall right the Jazz will end up drafting six times in the lottery in 3 drafts.  The Jazz currently have Favors & Hayward, two possible in this draft, and two possible in 2012 draft.  Let that melt over you like a warm butter.

A Billion Dollars Cool

There’s a scene in The Social Network where Mark Zuckerberg and his friend Eduardo are speaking with Sean Parker. Mark’s best friend Eduardo has been trying for weeks to convince Mark that they need advertising on this site to become profitable.  Then there is this exchange in the movie:

Eduardo Saverin: “You know what, settle an argument for us. I’d say its time to start making money from theFacebook but Mark doesn’t want advertising. Who’s right?”
Sean Parker: “Neither of you, yet. TheFacebook is cool. That’s what it’s got going for it.”
Mark Zuckerberg: “Yeah.”
Sean Parker: “You don’t want to ruin it with ads because ads aren’t cool.”
Mark Zuckerberg: “Exactly.”
Sean Parker: “It’s like you’re throwing the greatest party on campus and someone saying it’s gotta be over by eleven.”
Mark Zuckerberg: “That’s exactly right.”
Sean Parker: “You don’t even know what the thing is yet. How big it can get, how far it can go. This is no time to take your chips down. A million dollars isn’t cool. You know what’s cool?”
Eduardo Saverin [giving evidence at the deposition]: “A billion dollars. And that’s what shut everybody up.”

To have compromised future cap flexibility for something that limits your progress in the future like bad contracts (which is what the Jazz would have received back to complete AK trade) would have been “throwing the greatest party on campus and someone saying it’s gotta be over by eleven.”  Just to get a guy who is a proven commodity they would have had to give up future cap flexibility and take on a lot of salary.

The Jazz don’t even know what the Jazz are.  Are they a PF-driven team?  A Center-led team? If they draft Irving are they PG-driven? If they draft Barnes would they be SG-driven?  To compromise all that flexibility now would be taking their chips down.

If Favors was stock he'd be Apple pre-iPod. Buy now.

Right now the Jazz have something going for them.  They have a future.  With Deron Williams that future had the potential of ending in a disastrous way if he were to leave via free agency.  The Jazz traded him for two players, Devin Harris and Derrick Favors, and 2 1st round draft picks. Those 2 1st round draft picks will most likely be lottery picks. Then in the next draft they will have 2 more lottery picks.  They also have Ante Tomic in Europe who would be a mid to late 1st round pick if he were to enter the draft now.  There’s a lot to be excited about.

As Sean Parker said, “You don’t even know what the thing is yet. How big it can get, how far it can go. This is no time to take your chips down. A million dollars isn’t cool. You know what’s cool?  A Billion Dollars.”

People may have mocked the Jazz for trading Deron Williams now but do you remember what Eduardo said after Sean Parker made that remark?

“And that’s what shut everybody up.”

A few years back a friend of mine said, “You know your team is bad when you are worrying about your starting 5 players.  You know your team is really good when you have time to worry about your water boy.”  Right now that water boy is Gordon Hayward.  He, selected by the Jazz with the 9th pick in the draft, was supposed to be gift-wrapped talent sent from the heavens.  Now he has become the Jazz’s victory cigar only seeing playing time in garbage time at the end of blowouts.

30 games into the season Jazz fans are eager to call the Hayward a bust and a waste of a pick, eagerly pointing to other rookies (Landry Fields, Xavier Henry, etc.) as proof that the Jazz missed the mark with this selection.  Here are a few points that I’d like to make before we throw Hayward under the bus and give up on him before the season is even halfway over.

We are comparing him to Wesley Matthews

AP Photo/Don Ryan

Wesley Matthews was able to steal, yes I said steal, playing time because of injuries.  Korver was hurt, Miles was hurt, Price had a few bumps and bruises.  This allowed Matthews to play out of necessity.  Otherwise he never would have seen time, possibly never would have been signed, if no preseason injuries occurred.  It is true he stepped up but there is something to be said to stepping up because you HAVE TO instead of pushing others to do so.  Matthews was able to gain confidence because he was their ONLY option at SG for a time.  Knowing that you can make mistakes without being pulled is a luxury that cannot be overstated.  Also Matthews was a 4 year college player.  There is something to be seen from playing 4 years of college.  It is called experience and maturity.  Hayward is still learning that.

Veteran Team

Veteran Cast

Hayward is coming onto a very veteran laden team.  Miles is a 5 year veteran. Price is a 5 year veteran.  Kirilenko is a 9 year veteran.  Bell is a 10 year veteran.  Those are the guys ahead of Hayward on the depth chart.   You’re telling me that on all of your first 3 months on the job you put to shame coworkers who had been working with your respective companies for 5, 9, and 10 years?  It’s hard to earn minutes on a team that is not mistake prone.  When you are on a veteran team usually the one making mistakes is the rookie.  That’s rough.  Especially when you got tons of people critiquing your every move.  Was your first day of work covered on ESPN, NBA.com, local news outlets, bloggers, and the newspaper?

Not All Good Players Start Strong

Case in point: Kobe Bryant.

(Yes, I already know what you’ll comment below and save yourself the trouble.  He won’t become a Kobe Bryant or a great player.  Not what I’m trying to show.  I don’t think he becomes top flight.  But rarely do great players start great. And rarely do good players start good.  And rarely do average players start average.)

Can anybody off the top of their heads list his rookie year statistics?  If you were to look at his rookie year stats and say, “This kid is going to be one of the top 10 players in the game.” People would think you were crazy.  Here they are:

15.5 mpg 1.3 apg 1.9 rpg 7.6 ppg

His minutes per game are misleading.  In the first half of the season he was only averaging about 7-8.  He only started 6 games.  His following season he only started 1.  He only averaged 2 Free throws a game.  Point being he wasn’t great.  Like the Jazz the 1996 Lakers were a team full of veterans and big time talent.  It takes a while for a young talent to find his way.  I’m not saying he’ll be a Kobe Bryant but what I am saying is 1/4 of a season is by no means any way to judge a player.

Highlight Ability

Brewer At Rookie/Sophomore Game (Rare photo of Jazz jersey & headband)

Sometimes a rookie is able to buy time with fans because he is able to excite them once a game with something tantalizing.  I.E. a rim shattering dunk.  The only reason Brewer wasn’t considered a bust in his first year was his ability to have highlight dunks in garbage time.  High fliers like him are able to miss the bust label because they excite you with plays that have a flash in the pan quality.  Gordon Hayward isn’t going to play above the rim.  He’s going to be cerebral.  If anyone of our readers saw him in summer league and preseason you saw what a treat that was.

Mind Games

Do a google search trying to find Hayward & Williams in the same picture just the two of them. Good Luck.

Speaking of preseason, how many of you watched preseason? Summer league?  Hayward was playing good basketball.  I know we like to elevate D-Will on a pedestal and claim that he has done nothing wrong but since that infamous Phoenix home opener and the “pass” Hayward has been timid.  It is not that D-Will chastised him.  This is different.

Think of your idol.

Think of how much you adore them and look up to them.

Now think about your idol calling you out on national tv because you are trying and the rest of your coworkers have quit.  That’s a psyche buster.  I think Hayward is past that and with his breakout game against the T-Wolves he has shown he is ready to play.  But I believe that Phoenix incident set his development back.

Patience

Give Hayward a shot.  Give him a couple years.  Yes, I said a couple.  There’s this crazy thing with Jazz rookies.  They usually elevate their game in the 2nd year.  See also: Matthews, Brewer, Millsap, D-Will.  So before we blame him for not trying let’s be patient with him.  He didn’t step up his game til his 2nd year at Butler ONCE he got comfortable.

Give him a shot.

I know I’m of the few that still believe he’ll be something of value to the Jazz (and no I don’t mean a trade piece). There is no magic recipe to suddenly being great.

Oakland Daze

If you think this is ugly. You should have seen the game. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

While participating in the Daily Dime Live on Friday night I made the comment referencing the Jazz-Warriors game, “First to 80, wins it.”  At the time I meant it as a joke.  Little did I know that I’d be right.  The final score to that *cough, cough* defensive affair was Warriors 85- Jazz 78.  For those fans who didn’t turn off the game to watch grass grow, they saw two teams trying to play basketball but never quite succeed at that goal.  There would be spurts were basketball was played but most of the game was filled with enough bricks to build the city of Dubai.

The Jazz’s frontcourt was completely outhustled. Sure, the Jazz shot better from the field (a miserable 39.5% to Golden States’ even more miserable 37.6%), but the Warriors outrebounded the Jazz 56 to 52  (20 of the Warriors rebounds were offensive), and the Jazz completely abandoned fundamentals, refusing to box anyone out in the paint.  The Jazz had a chance to win this game even after playing miserably, but they just couldn’t pull it together long enough to actually finish off the Warriors.

Double OT

Millsap has turned into a consistent threat every game.

Back to backs are brutal.  Imagine playing a full game, flying back to SLC in the middle of the night, having no time to rest sore muscles and nagging injuries (Williams had back spasms, Millsap’s ankle, CJ’s ankle), and then be expected to play a double overtime game on the 2nd night against the Clippers.  Brutal.  Al Jefferson (can this guy ever have a negative attitude?) said this about the double OT game with the Clippers:

I’ll tell you the last thing I wanted was a double overtime and a loss, because I know if we go through all of that and lose the game…I’ll tell you, it was just one of those games you’re going to have. It was an ugly win. But I’ll take it any day of the week.

The Jazz overcame a horrible (and horrible is being positive) first half to come back and win this game in the 2nd half and two overtimes.  Williams came alive.  Millsap was the 20/10 guy we’re learning to expect this season.  Al Jefferson stepped up.  Kirilenko was active on both ends of the floor.  This Jazz team played to their potential.  And, boy, did they have to.

Eric Gordon was playing at his Olympic level and Blake Griffin was, well, Blake Griffin.  Griffin was looking like he was easily going to get 20+ points and 20+ rebounds in this game after the first half.  But then the Jazz went to work defensively and shut him down.  Blake ended up fouling out and I’m sure no one on the Jazz bench felt any sympathy.

Death by Southeast

The Jazz will start a 4 game east coast road swing tomorrow when they face the Miami Heat.  They will face off against 4 of the last year’s 8 playoff teams from the East:  Miami, Orlando, Atlanta, and Charlotte.  The fun part is they face these four teams in five days. This week will play out like a Predator movie.  Survival does not look possible right now.  Hope is bleak.  If the Jazz barely scraped by the Clippers and played miserably against against a so-so Golden State team what will the Eastern Conference’s cream of the crop do against them?  But there is hope.

Ron Boone might have said it best when he said he couldn’t find the pulse of this Jazz squad.  What’s their identity?  I think that identity will be found after this rough month of November.  Jazz fans need to be patient with Utah right now.  The Jazz are still a team trying to learn each other.  Some nights are going to be offensive explosions, while others are going to be absolute no-shows.  That’s by no means a cause for concern. The sky isn’t falling.  Change takes time and is always bumpy at first.  The key for November and this week’s tough schedule is survival.  If the Jazz survive November with an above .500 record they will be in a good position for a run in December.  Note it.

Buyer’s Remorse

This was in John Hollinger’s PER Diem today:

Wesley Matthews, Portland: His defense has been an asset, which is the main reason Portland signed him. But after an impressive preseason, his offense has been dreadful in the games that count. Expected to provide floor spacing, Matthews is just 4-of-25 on 3s and has done nothing else well enough to make up for it.

I know we all miss Wesley Matthews but is there anyone that thinks he is worth what Portland is paying him?

The Jeffer-Sap Monster

I’m a huge fan of Bill Simmons writing.  When I read his articles I get the feeling that he’s a super knowledgeable everyman, and I love his way of allowing his deeply rooted fanaticism sometimes overrule sanity on certain issues (mainly his love for the Celtics). The man knows his basketball, and in particular, he knows his Celtics. He’s seen the C’s players play so often that he knows them better than their own mothers do.  That why this quote from one of his recent articles caught my eye:

13. Utah
We’re about five weeks from NBA GMs anonymously complaining to writers about the Al Jefferson hijacking. I can’t wait.

(On a personal note, I loved Big Al on the Celtics, rooted for him in Minnesota, felt like a proud dad when his career was taking off in January ’08, agonized for him when he blew out his knee that same month, then felt terrible last season as he struggled through one of the worst situations in recent memory. Seeing Jefferson get a chance to rejuvenate his career with a top-four point guard and a top-four coach — on a good team, in a city that gives a crap — is one of my five favorite things about this upcoming season. So there.)

Jefferson is improving every game.  He’s averaging 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks a game, but instead of focusing solely on Jefferson’s production, Millsap has come alive and forced us to notice him.  Boozer’s shadow has been lifted off Paul and he has come into his own.  This season, Millsap is averaging 20 points, 11 rebounds 3 assists, 1 steal, and .5 blocks a game. He has had a double-double in 4 out of his 5 past games.  The most impressive stat is he’s only averaging 3 fouls a game.  A huge improvement for Millsap.

The realization I’m coming to is that Kevin O’Connor has created a real monster… he’s created, *dun, dun, dun*, Jeffer-Sap!!  By splicing the DNA of a Millsap and a Jefferson (a.k.a. putting them in the same lineup) he has created an absolute beast in the paint.  The Jeffer-Sap has been averaging 38 points, 20 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, and 2 blocks a game.  When at full speed it can demolish a team in the paint.  Unfortunately, as we saw in the Golden State game, it can get easily confused, so hopefully the Jeffer-Sap monster is poised and ready for its road trip this week.  If the Jeffer-Sap that we saw in Oklahoma City travels to the Southeast this week the Jazz could come out with a 2-2, maybe a 3-1 record from this road trip.