Archives For Utah Jazz

DeMarre Carroll’s War on Possessions

Andy Larsen —  May 23, 2013 — 6 Comments

dmc

In today’s basketball analytics paradigm, all of the talk is on efficiency, and for good reason: efficiency is highly correlated with winning. Per possession statistics like Offensive and Defensive Rating, and Synergy’s PPP rule the roost, and when they don’t, per shot statistics like eFG% or TS% step forward. Again, this makes sense: being efficient on both ends of the floor is obviously a good thing.

But when a player dramatically alters the possessions themselves, sometimes we analysts overlook that influence. Enter DeMarre Carroll. Last season, he shot an average-looking 46% from the field (though that was by far the best percentage of his career), and just 28.6% from 3: about average to below average overall for his position. Most look at these numbers and pigeonhole Carroll right there: wing players who can’t shoot tend not to be productive players.

DeMarre, though, is incredibly productive, by uniquely influencing the possession. Let’s look at how he does this:

GIVING PROHIBITED 

DeMarre Carroll led the Jazz last season in turnovers per 36 minutes, allowing just 1.1 in that timeframe. To give you a comparison, Gordon Hayward finished with 2.1 TO/36, Alec Burks with 2.3 TO/36, and catch-and-shooters Randy Foye and Marvin Williams ended up with 1.3 and 1.5 TO/36, respectively. Yes, he even beat out notoriously turnover-stingy Al Jefferson, who ended with 1.5 TO/36.

Carroll’s total leaves him 15th in the NBA overall amongst players with over 1000 minutes, with most of the players above him of the extreme catch-and-shoot variety (such as Steve Novak, Shane Battier, Kyle Korver, etc.). Given that estimates for the value of a turnover range from -.9 points to -1.5 points, Carroll may be giving up a point fewer per game than his counterparts in this category alone. But we’re just getting started.

EYE-POPPING OFFENSIVE REBOUND NUMBERS

I wish there were a way to make a player famous for a certain facet of their game, but alas, that generally happens through the vagaries of public opinion. DeMarre Carroll’s offensive rebounding at his position is absolutely world-class. Let’s begin with his per 36 numbers again: Carroll averages 2.8 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes, compared to just 0.9 for Gordon Hayward, 1.2 for Alec Burks, 1.1 for Marvin Williams, and 0.3 for Randy Foye. Pretty impressive, no?

But when you compare him to the league overall, Carroll really shines. DeMarre ranks first in the league (again, minimum 1000 minutes) amongst non-PF and non-Cs in offensive rebounds overall: his 2.8 ORB/36 total beating the nearest challenger, Dante Cunningham, by over 10%. Carroll is the only player amongst all PGs, SGs, and SFs to rank in the top 50. He garners 9.1% of the possible offensive rebounds when he’s in the game, another league-leading performance for his position.

This isn’t just a single season fluke either. He led the league for non-big offensive rebounding in 2011-2012.  In his second season, he played only 50 minutes. Even in his rookie season, 2009-2010, he led the league! We have very significant evidence that DeMarre Carroll is very significantly great at offensive rebounding.

The linear weights estimates (link above) for an offensive rebound seem to put the value at about 0.75 points, but I would argue that the value is even greater for Carroll: via Synergy, he averaged 1.31 PPP on his offensive rebounding scoring opportunities last season, good for 11th in the league. That improves significantly on the Jazz’s overall 1.09 points per possession on offensive rebound opportunities. This may just be wish casting, but lets put the value of an Carroll offensive rebound at 0.9 points. Doing the multiplication, he’s getting 1.5 to 2.3 more points per 36 minutes than his wing counterparts based on his offensive rebounding alone.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S “STEAL” MORE

Carroll also leads the Jazz with 1.9 steals per 36 minutes. This is again higher than his playing time competition: Hayward has 1.0 STL/36, Burks 1.1 STL/36, Foye 1.1 STL/36, and Marvin Williams finished with 0.8 STL/36.

Here, too, DeMarre Carroll compares extremely well with the rest of the league. Carroll ranks second in the league in steals per 36 minutes for a SF, and third in the league for non-guards, only Corey Brewer and Andray Blatche (strangely) finished higher. Again, the Jazz have someone who is world-class at his position at an aspect of the game.

Much like with turnovers, linear weights estimates the value of a steal at about 0.9-1.5 points. Once again, Carroll gains a point on his competition.

 

 

So how does it all add up? In these three respects of the game, Carroll is helping the Jazz by somewhere between 2.7 and 4.8 points per 36 minutes. That is a massive improvement: that jump would put the Jazz somewhere between 5th and 10th in the league in scoring margin, up from 15th. In short, the Jazz would have almost certainly made the playoffs, and may have even had home court advantage in the first round.

The brilliant part about Carroll’s season last year, however, was that he was still an effective player even ignoring his war-on-possessions specialties. Carroll’s FG% (46%) was a full 5 percentage points higher than any other season in his career, and his 0.98 PPP on personal offensive possessions was 95th in the league out of 400-500 players. The Jazz offense improved when he was on the floor, even in shooting percentage (albeit by less than 1 percent).

His defense, which I heavily attacked last year, became average this season: metrics on his performance range from somewhat below average (his 0.93 PPP allowed in Synergy) to very good (a 4 point DRTG jump when he was on the floor, via NBA.com, and his 12.6 PER allowed on 82games.com). Carroll is no longer limited to a specialist’s role.

The end result: a player who has largely eliminated his weaknesses, and improved his league-leading strengths. DeMarre Carroll’s unconventionality shouldn’t stop us from appreciating just how effective he was when on the floor last season, and a free agency offer representative of his talents should be extended.

 

In DeMarre Carroll, Utah Jazz ,
permalink

On Kevin O’Connor’s Luck

Andy Larsen —  May 21, 2013 — Leave a comment

MoWillIntro

Kevin O’Connor’s probably wearing his lucky green today. But will he be so sad tonight?

Kevin O’Connor has reason to complain. Just 14 months ago on March 21, 2012, the Jazz seemed to have their 2012 pick perfectly positioned. After acquiring a 2012 Golden State (top-7 protected) first round pick in the Deron Williams trade, the Warriors seemed to be doing their part with a record (19-25) just 6 games below .500, good for the 9th worst record in the league. Even better, they had amassed a 4 game “lead” on the 7th worst spot, making it probable that they didn’t slip back down to keep their pick. Unfortunately for Jazz fans, the Warriors went just 4-18 for the rest of the season, and ended up in a tie for the 7th lottery position.

(Just how likely was Golden State’s collapse? Treating each game as an independent outcome, and using a chi-squared test, the probability of a team that had started the season with a 19-25 record to finish it with a 4-18 streak is just 4.4%. Of course, each game in an NBA season is not independent: injuries can (and did) happen, a team’s schedule can become more difficult, and fatigue can begin to set in. Those factors do increase the odds of a team’s collapse many times over, but even given the compounding nature of these losses, the odds were very slim.)

However, the draft pick was still within reach. While no lottery balls were exchanged, on April 27th, the NBA flipped a coin to determine who would keep the 7th spot if no draft order changes took place between the Warriors and Raptors. The Jazz had a 50/50 chance of keeping their pick, but lost that chance when the coin flip came up heads for the Warriors.

Opportunity #3 for the Jazz to keep their pick came on lottery night. The Jazz still had one final possibility: if a team in the 8th-14th slots of the lottery had their lottery combination called, it would move themselves up to the top 3 slots and bump all the other teams down, creating a domino effect that would see Utah keep its pick. The odds of this: 27.34%.  Indeed, there was a lot of discussion that the Warriors would give up an asset to hedge away that chance they could lose the pick. Utah’s asking price, however, was too steep, and no hedge-away trade occurred. This again was to the Warriors benefit, as the bottom half of the lottery held. They had cleared the final hurdle, and in the process, broke Utah’s hearts. There would be no addition to Utah’s young core.

Even worse, the Warriors surprised the NBA in the 2012-2013 season, moving up to the 10th best record in the league. The Jazz are now stuck drafting 21st, rather than the top 10 pick they could have so reasonably expected less than a year ago. Given the sequence of events of last season, it’s clear why O’Connor feels he’s unlucky.

But it’s worth remembering that he attended the draft lottery in 2011 as well, and on that night (captured in this grainy Youtube video) the Jazz moved up from the 6th slot to number 3, despite having just a 25.23% chance at doing so. With the 3rd pick, the Jazz drafted Enes Kanter, who looks like a good NBA player. The 6th pick? Jan Vesely, the hero of the entertainingly sparse @JanVeselyStats Twitter account. That’s a massive break for the Jazz.

Indeed, even ignoring the specific players involved, the luck “tradeoff” seems to make come out favorably for the Jazz. Check out this study done by 82games.com in 2008:

draftpickstats

 

The rating system used is primitive at best: it’s simply career PPG + RPG + APG. That being said, it nevertheless illustrates the point quite nicely: the graph of the expected output of any draft pick is non-linear. The drop off from the 3rd pick to the 6th pick is about 7.3 rating points, whereas the dropoff from the 8th pick all the way down to the 21st is just 2.1 rating points! Even after applying a smoothing function to help balance out the influence of luck (for example, the fact that the 21st pick is a better bet than the 15th pick), it’s clear: the expected output difference between the 3rd and 6th pick is greater than or equal to the difference between the 8th and 21st. KOC may have better luck than he thinks.

Of course, going into tonight’s lottery, the Jazz have just a 1.82% chance of moving up into the top 3. Both Kevin O’Connor and Randy Rigby are going to need an exceptional bit of luck (or some general managing skill) to see the Jazz draft anywhere but 14th come June 27th.

In Draft, Utah Jazz
permalink

Lotto Time!

Jackson Rudd —  May 21, 2013 — Leave a comment

LOTTO TIME

 

Please disregard the fact that the screenshot clearly states that this occurred at 1:03 AM last night and pretend like I nailed it on the first try.

I believe.

In Utah Jazz
permalink

Jazz announce pre-draft workouts

Spencer Hall —  May 10, 2013 — Leave a comment

The Jazz will host six players on Saturday, May 11 for pre-draft workouts. (Links to Draft Express and ESPN Insider profiles).

PLAYER POSITION HT. WT. D.O.B. FROM
James Ennis (Insider) Guard 6-6 235 7/1/90 Long Beach St.
Jamelle Hagins Forward 6-9 235 10/19/90 Delaware
Colton Iverson (Insider) Center 7-0 255 6/29/89 Colorado St.
Myck Kabongo (Insider) Guard 6-1 180 1/12/92 Texas
Mike Snaer (Insider) Guard 6-5 202 6/21/90 Florida St.
Nate Wolters (Insider) Guard 6-4 190 5/15/91 South Dakota St.

Highlights:

James Ennis

Jamelle Hagins

Colton Iverson (Best name, for sure)

Myck Kabongo

Mike Snaer

Nate Wolters (53-point game)

In Utah Jazz
permalink

Walter Bond to chat with the Saturday Show

Spencer Hall —  April 26, 2013 — Leave a comment

Tune in tomorrow The Saturday Show to listen to former Jazz guard Walter Bond talk about his time in the NBA, his motivational speaking, and his new gig hosting a new Food Network show called “Giving You The Business.”

In the premiere episode, four Famous Famiglia employees from across the country are secretly put to the test in a series of outrageous challenges designed to test their management skills. Hidden cameras capture their every move at the company’s busiest Manhattan pizzeria, and the winner will be awarded their own franchise. Franchises featured in upcoming episodes include: 16 Handles, Freshii, Jersey Mike’s Subs, La Prep, Muscle Maker Grill, Saladworks, Topper’s Pizza and Wok Box.

Walter Bond uses what he learned on the basketball court and franchise world in his many speaking engagements around the country, discussing how to excel in business with owners and employees. He is a former NBA athlete who rose from being a reserve player coming off the bench to becoming the first rookie-free agent to start for the Dallas Mavericks. This journey provides the foundation for the principles he teaches to empower people in their own lives. Today he is recognized as one of the world’s preeminent experts on personal accountability. Walter has impacted hundreds of thousands of people in his rapid rise to the top of the speaking industry.

Bond will be the second player from the 1993-94 Jazz roster to appear on the Saturday Show, joining Luther Wright. Check the video at the top of this post to get familiar with Bond’s motivational speaking. Great stuff from beginning to end.

Listen to The Saturday Show at noon MT on 97.5 FM / 1280 AM or stream it on 1280thezone.com.

FOOD NETWORK WALTER BOND

In Utah Jazz , ,
permalink

Jazz 112 – Blazers 102: Salt Lob City

Spencer Hall —  April 2, 2013 — Leave a comment

The Jazz continued to roll last night, picking up their first five-game winning streak of the season and handling the visiting Portland Trail Blazers in fine fashion [recap]. There was a lot to like, including 24 points and 10 rebounds from Al Jefferson, the newly-named Western Conference Player of the Week. The rejuvenated Mo Williams followed up Randy Foye’s team record 8 threes on Saturday night with 6-of-7 shooting from three and 20 points.

The thing everybody wanted to talk about though was the ridiculous no-look lob from Jamaal Tinsley to Jeremy Evans in the fourth quarter. As was pointed out by Matt Harpring on the broadcast, Evans is somehow three feet behind the three-point line when the ball is lobbed by Tinsley. That’s a lot of ground to cover.

Shoutout to SB Nation’s Mike Prada for the upload and the Salt Lob City moniker.

In Utah Jazz , ,
permalink

5-on-5: Which records are meant to be broken?

Spencer Hall —  April 1, 2013 — 2 Comments

All-Time Assists Leaders

Last week I went 5-on-5 with a few of my TrueHoop brethren for a 5-on-5 piece for ESPN. Take a look at the responses and let me know your thoughts:

1. Breakable or unbreakable: The 1995-96 Bulls’ 72-win season.

Spencer Ryan Hall, Salt City Hoops: Unbreakable. That Bulls team descended from Mount Olympus and deigned to play among mere mortals for a season.

2. Breakable or unbreakable: The 1971-72 Lakers’ 33-game win streak.

Hall: Unbreakable. I really thought the combination of LeBron’s dominance and Shane Battier’s clandestine deal with the patron saint of win streaks would be enough to get the Heat to that 34th consecutive win. Breaking the Lakers’ mark would have been a more impressive accomplishment than an NBA title, but it’s clearly not a mark that any team will challenge anytime soon.

3. Breakable or unbreakable: Kareem’s career points (38,387).

Hall: Breakable. As someone who watched nearly every point of Karl Malone’s career, it’s unfathomable to imagine another player even approaching the combination of scoring ability, durability and longevity it would take to catch Kareem’s remarkable 20 seasons at 24.6 points per game. However, LeBron is already 10 seasons into his career, is averaging 27.6 points per game and is just peaking when Kareem was tailing off. Barring retiring and trying professional football, LeBron will only be 38 years old in his 20th season.

4. Breakable or unbreakable: Wilt Chamberlain’s 100-point game.

Hall: Unbreakable. The conditions were perfect and irregular for Wilt’s 100-point game and will never be repeated. Even though Kobe’s 81-point game didn’t start to feel remarkable until the second half of the third quarter — making it easier to imagine a James Harden-type getting fouled five or six times each quarter, hitting all 10 free throws, and making seven shots every 12 minutes — no future team will respond to such a performance with single coverage like the Raptors did to Kobe in 2006.

5. Breakable or unbreakable: John Stockton’s career assists (15,806).

Hall: Absolutely unbreakable. For reference, despite having Hall of Fame careers of 19 and 17 years, both Jason Kidd and Steve Nash are thousands of assists away from challenging the insane assist total amassed by Stockton. Who else is going to average more than 10.5 assists for more than 19 years? Even more improbable is seeing another player go nearly two decades and only miss games in two seasons. Untouchable.

Read the other responses from Kevin Arnovitz, Curtis Harris, Jeremy Schmidt, and John Converse Townsend.

All-Time Steals Leaders

As for my responses to the other responses, I’m a little stunned that anyone considered Stockton’s assist record as breakable. The Johnny Flynn mention was just silly. Amazingly, Stockton’s steals record might be even more untouchable.

Some have disagreed with my prediction that Kobe will pass Kareem (most agree LeBron will pass them both, however). I’m just saying, the rumors of Kobe’s demise are greatly exaggerated. We’re not even sure he won’t fly to Germany every year and get an entirely new set of bionic parts. I’m convinced he’ll play for at least 4 more seasons.

Anyway, give me your thoughts.

In Utah Jazz
permalink

Jazz 116 – Nets 107: The Randy Foye Game

Spencer Hall —  April 1, 2013 — Leave a comment

(Including these highlights in case you missed it. Here’s the recap.)

Some notes:

  • It’s time to stop booing Deron Williams.
  • It’s fun when Randy Foye hits a million threes. (8-9 on the night, tying the team record held by assistant Jeff Hornacek).
  • Memo Okur has a beautiful family and should be very proud of what he’s accomplished: NBA championship with the Pistons, a great run with the Jazz, All-Star selection, and probably the best post-career life of any player in recent memory. Well done, sir.
  • Al Jefferson busted out a legitimate Dream Shake (seen at the 3:32 mark of the video above). It was filthy–and looked even better from the reverse side where we sit. I’m as guilty as anyone for paying too much attention to what he DOESN’T do, instead of enjoying his near-mastery of the left block. A true virtuoso.
  • The Gordon Hayward v. Deron Williams matchup is one of my favorite things all year. It’s a shame the teams only meet twice. For whatever reason, the two seem to have a rivalry that pre-dates the Baseball Pass from Hayward’s rookie year. The two battled all night. The defense they played on each other was the only defense to be had in the game, however.
  • D-Will finished the night with 21 points and 11 assists, but he’s now 0-4 against his former team.
  • Violet Palmer. Nobody does it better.

The Block:

165115422

(Sorry about the watermark. You pay for it.)

Memo honored during a timeout:

417c834e9ad811e289bf22000a1fa4a9_7

In Utah Jazz
permalink

Jazz 103 – Suns 88

Spencer Hall —  March 28, 2013 — Leave a comment

Clearly the Jazz just need to lock the doors when teams like the Suns/Pistons/Bobcats come through. Just play them 41 times a season.

Gordon Hayward scored a very efficient 25 points, including 3-6 from three. He also gave out 6 assists and picked up 5 rebounds. Al Jefferson also scored 25 points and added 9 rebounds. Randy Foye (12 points, 2-2 from three) finally got back on track, too. [boxscore].

It wasn’t all good times, though. Enes Kanter dislocated his shoulder in this scrum for the ball:

After the game, Kanter was upbeat and posted this tweet:

It was nice to see Memo Okur in the house, too.

sloan-memo

The Jazz play in Portland on Friday and then host Deron Williams and the Brooklyn Nets the next night at home. Should be a good time.

In Utah Jazz , , ,
permalink

Saint Stock: John Stockton turns 51

Spencer Hall —  March 26, 2013 — Leave a comment

In honor of the NBA’s all-time steals and assists leader turning 51, I offer this masterpiece from the incomparable @beeteeth:

St.StocktonFull_1020

No. 12 John Stockton, “The Patron Saint of Ball Thieves” – 24×36 acrylic on tea-stained paper.

Check out the rest of the amazing work by artist Daniel Lee Christofferson and follow him on Twitter: @beeteeth.

Now watch the fantastic footage of KSL’s Jim Nantz after the Jazz drafted John Stockton. Uploaded by KSL’s Jeremiah Jensen for our Retro Jazz project last summer.

Featuring the aforementioned Nantz, a mustachioed Scott Layden, Frank Layden, and a surprisingly open and upbeat John Stockton. Special appearance by practice jerseys that appear to be stolen from a Jr. Jazz league.

In Utah Jazz ,
permalink