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DeMarre Carroll’s War on Possessions

Andy Larsen —  May 23, 2013 — 6 Comments

dmc

In today’s basketball analytics paradigm, all of the talk is on efficiency, and for good reason: efficiency is highly correlated with winning. Per possession statistics like Offensive and Defensive Rating, and Synergy’s PPP rule the roost, and when they don’t, per shot statistics like eFG% or TS% step forward. Again, this makes sense: being efficient on both ends of the floor is obviously a good thing.

But when a player dramatically alters the possessions themselves, sometimes we analysts overlook that influence. Enter DeMarre Carroll. Last season, he shot an average-looking 46% from the field (though that was by far the best percentage of his career), and just 28.6% from 3: about average to below average overall for his position. Most look at these numbers and pigeonhole Carroll right there: wing players who can’t shoot tend not to be productive players.

DeMarre, though, is incredibly productive, by uniquely influencing the possession. Let’s look at how he does this:

GIVING PROHIBITED 

DeMarre Carroll led the Jazz last season in turnovers per 36 minutes, allowing just 1.1 in that timeframe. To give you a comparison, Gordon Hayward finished with 2.1 TO/36, Alec Burks with 2.3 TO/36, and catch-and-shooters Randy Foye and Marvin Williams ended up with 1.3 and 1.5 TO/36, respectively. Yes, he even beat out notoriously turnover-stingy Al Jefferson, who ended with 1.5 TO/36.

Carroll’s total leaves him 15th in the NBA overall amongst players with over 1000 minutes, with most of the players above him of the extreme catch-and-shoot variety (such as Steve Novak, Shane Battier, Kyle Korver, etc.). Given that estimates for the value of a turnover range from -.9 points to -1.5 points, Carroll may be giving up a point fewer per game than his counterparts in this category alone. But we’re just getting started.

EYE-POPPING OFFENSIVE REBOUND NUMBERS

I wish there were a way to make a player famous for a certain facet of their game, but alas, that generally happens through the vagaries of public opinion. DeMarre Carroll’s offensive rebounding at his position is absolutely world-class. Let’s begin with his per 36 numbers again: Carroll averages 2.8 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes, compared to just 0.9 for Gordon Hayward, 1.2 for Alec Burks, 1.1 for Marvin Williams, and 0.3 for Randy Foye. Pretty impressive, no?

But when you compare him to the league overall, Carroll really shines. DeMarre ranks first in the league (again, minimum 1000 minutes) amongst non-PF and non-Cs in offensive rebounds overall: his 2.8 ORB/36 total beating the nearest challenger, Dante Cunningham, by over 10%. Carroll is the only player amongst all PGs, SGs, and SFs to rank in the top 50. He garners 9.1% of the possible offensive rebounds when he’s in the game, another league-leading performance for his position.

This isn’t just a single season fluke either. He led the league for non-big offensive rebounding in 2011-2012.  In his second season, he played only 50 minutes. Even in his rookie season, 2009-2010, he led the league! We have very significant evidence that DeMarre Carroll is very significantly great at offensive rebounding.

The linear weights estimates (link above) for an offensive rebound seem to put the value at about 0.75 points, but I would argue that the value is even greater for Carroll: via Synergy, he averaged 1.31 PPP on his offensive rebounding scoring opportunities last season, good for 11th in the league. That improves significantly on the Jazz’s overall 1.09 points per possession on offensive rebound opportunities. This may just be wish casting, but lets put the value of an Carroll offensive rebound at 0.9 points. Doing the multiplication, he’s getting 1.5 to 2.3 more points per 36 minutes than his wing counterparts based on his offensive rebounding alone.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S “STEAL” MORE

Carroll also leads the Jazz with 1.9 steals per 36 minutes. This is again higher than his playing time competition: Hayward has 1.0 STL/36, Burks 1.1 STL/36, Foye 1.1 STL/36, and Marvin Williams finished with 0.8 STL/36.

Here, too, DeMarre Carroll compares extremely well with the rest of the league. Carroll ranks second in the league in steals per 36 minutes for a SF, and third in the league for non-guards, only Corey Brewer and Andray Blatche (strangely) finished higher. Again, the Jazz have someone who is world-class at his position at an aspect of the game.

Much like with turnovers, linear weights estimates the value of a steal at about 0.9-1.5 points. Once again, Carroll gains a point on his competition.

 

 

So how does it all add up? In these three respects of the game, Carroll is helping the Jazz by somewhere between 2.7 and 4.8 points per 36 minutes. That is a massive improvement: that jump would put the Jazz somewhere between 5th and 10th in the league in scoring margin, up from 15th. In short, the Jazz would have almost certainly made the playoffs, and may have even had home court advantage in the first round.

The brilliant part about Carroll’s season last year, however, was that he was still an effective player even ignoring his war-on-possessions specialties. Carroll’s FG% (46%) was a full 5 percentage points higher than any other season in his career, and his 0.98 PPP on personal offensive possessions was 95th in the league out of 400-500 players. The Jazz offense improved when he was on the floor, even in shooting percentage (albeit by less than 1 percent).

His defense, which I heavily attacked last year, became average this season: metrics on his performance range from somewhat below average (his 0.93 PPP allowed in Synergy) to very good (a 4 point DRTG jump when he was on the floor, via NBA.com, and his 12.6 PER allowed on 82games.com). Carroll is no longer limited to a specialist’s role.

The end result: a player who has largely eliminated his weaknesses, and improved his league-leading strengths. DeMarre Carroll’s unconventionality shouldn’t stop us from appreciating just how effective he was when on the floor last season, and a free agency offer representative of his talents should be extended.

 

In DeMarre Carroll, Utah Jazz ,
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JazzRank 5: Marvin Williams

Jackson Rudd —  November 13, 2012 — Leave a comment

 

Having rooted for Marvin Williams for 8 games now, I have a slightly better understanding of why Atlanta’s fans always had such high expectations for him. He looks amazing doing everything. His shot looks incredibly smooth, his defense looks like it is impenetrable, and he never seems like he’s out of control. Thankfully, we don’t have any draft remorse so he should be fine with Jazz fans, but it’s still worth mentioning. After Utah traded for him in July, I moped around for two days because Devin Harris got kicked out the door after carrying the Jazz to the playoffs, and then I realized that Marvin Williams is one of the most interesting, compelling players that has ever played for Utah and I lost my head and compared his career to one of the greatest bands of our generation.

Offseason Accomplishments:  Was the nicest guy ever in his introductory press conference after he was traded to the Jazz; made a bunch of threes in the preseason.

Patronus:  Dolphin

Stat to Watch:  Defensive Rating.  While his outside shooting is really important to Utah’s success, his most important contribution will come if he turns out to be the lock-down defensive wing the Jazz have been missing.  He should really thrive on D guarding small forwards all the time after Atlanta put him at power forward where he was at a disadvantage guarding bigger guys.

Three Potential Outcomes of the Season:

1. He averages 10 or 12 points per game, 27 minutes a night, and always sits in crunch time.  He is neither a huge addition or a huge liability; he falls into a moderate role and is neither loved nor reviled by the Jazz universe.  His three-point shooting is average, his rebounding is average, his defense is average.  He picks up his player option for next season and everyone shrugs.

2. He steps up on the defensive end and starts locking down people like DeMar DeRozan.  Between his perimeter defense and an increasing role for Derrick Favors, Utah starts to build an identity around being a defensive juggernaut. Having actually found an identity, the Jazz live up to their potential and earn the fourth seed in the playoffs, making it to the second round before losing to the Spurs again…  though we’d actually win at least one game this time.

3. As Randy Foye keeps shooting well (and plentifully) from long range, Ty Corbin decides to go in the complete opposite direction and benches Marvin so that Mo, Foye, Hayward, Millsap, and Jefferson can score lots of points and give up even more points.  Marvin, Favors, Kanter and Burks consider starting their own Utopian basketball team where everyone- young and old, expiring contract or rookie contract- is free to play basketball according to their abilities.  The Jazz miss the playoffs and Marvin is sad.

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JazzRank 9: Randy Foye

Jackson Rudd —  October 26, 2012 — 1 Comment

Don’t hate Randy Foye. As soon as Utah signed Foye back in July, it seemed like most Jazz fans were initially impressed at how reasonable the deal was for a proven 3-point threat… then everyone was suddenly terrified that he was going to devour all of Alec Burks’ minutes. Fans might be preconditioned to have that sort of response after watching C.J. Miles and Raja Bell do unspeakable basketball things last season while Burks stared into space from the bench, but there isn’t nearly the same amount danger with Foye. I have two central reasons why Randy Foye is awesome: 1) His Villanova teams from a few years back are in the pantheon for most entertaining college basketball teams ever. Easily. I picked them to go too far in my March Madness bracket in both 2005 and 2006 and I don’t even regret it at all because they were so much fun. Whatever happened to Allan Ray, anyway? 2) If he plays backup point guard and fills in for Mo Williams, like he did in the final preseason game tonight, then Burks’ minutes will go largely unscathed. They can easily share the backcourt together and Foye won’t take lots of terrible shots or disappear completely or anything disastrous. 3) (Bonus!) His organs are all backwards.

Offseason Accomplishments: He is always keeping busy working for his nonprofit organization. This summer he put together Regina’s Run, named after his late mother, a 5k in Newark to help families in need. He also signed with the Jazz, obviously.

Patronus: Bluejay

Stat to Watch: Assist percentage. Last year, the Clippers had him play exclusively as a spot-up shooter. While he filled that role very well, it didn’t really give him a chance to show off a point guard skill set, leaving him with an assist percentage of 14%. That is really low. (For point of reference, Devin Harris was at 28% last year, Jamaal Tinsley was at 36%, and Earl Watson was at 28%.) If he can get back up to 20% or so, he’ll be much better equipped to fill the role in the Jazz backcourt that they need him to fill. Oh, and if he keeps making lots of threes. That would also be good.

Three Potential Outcomes of the Season:

1. He thrives in his role as backup point guard, leading one of the most entertaining second units the Jazz have ever had in an efficient offense and stingy defense. He throws lots of alley-oops and has a great time doing it. He keeps clipping about 38% from behind the arc, endears himself to Jazz fans, and signs on for another year. Who knows? Maybe he goes to the 3-point shootout this year so that the Jazz can win something if Jeremy Evans’ repeat bid for Slam Dunk Champ goes awry.

2. He turns out to have too much of a scoring mentality to really be what Utah needs. He generally shoots tons of pull-up threes–a few too many to merit being primarily a point guard, which leads to some problems. I have to bite my lip and repeat the two-and-a-half reasons to like him mentioned above a few times to myself throughout the season, but he still shoots well enough that he stays in the good graces of Utah’s fans and organization, even if the #FreeAlecBurks movement is somewhat incensed.

3. He does really well for the Jazz until January or so, when the Big East invites Western Michigan and Eastern Washington to be full-time members of the conference starting immediately. Bursting with Villanova pride, Foye abruptly announces his retirement from the NBA and goes to coach the Wildcats and redeem Big East basketball. He exclusively uses a 7-guard rotation without playing a single player over 6’4″, they average 90 points a game and go undefeated for the rest of the season to win March Madness. I’m simply delighted because I totally picked them in my bracket.

In JazzRank, Randy Foye , ,
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JazzRank 11: Jamaal Tinsley

Jackson Rudd —  October 24, 2012 — 3 Comments

If there was only one thing that endeared Jamaal Tinsley’s game to me (and I assure you that there are many more than one), it would be the fact that his jump shot looks exactly like the jump shot in Double Dribble on the NES- or “Bubble Bibble,” as it introduces itself.  Well, except for the crazy changing-directions-in-the-air thing.  I was probably about five years old when I reached my Double Dribble prime, but the effect that all of those strange, straight-armed jumpers had on my psyche were far longer lasting.

Anyway, Jamaal Tinsley.

Tinsley’s first season with the Jazz was basically a case study in diminishing returns.  After spending the entire first month of the season on the bench, in his first game of heavy action he put up 9 points, 13 assists, and 6 rebounds- his 13 assists even marked a season high for the Jazz.  Then he went straight back to the bench.  In March, when he started getting reps as the 2nd-string point guard, his numbers were really solid- 6 points and 4 assists in 15 minutes a game while shooting 45% from the field.  As time wore on, however, and he kept getting minutes, his shot selection became less sterling and his numbers just couldn’t hold up.  By the time the playoffs came around, he was pretty much out of gas.  It’s hard to say how much of that we can blame on a condensed season, but the bottom line is that Jamaal Tinsley isn’t a great option to put up 15 minutes a game, every game, for a full season.  He’s just a little too old.

Still, if I were to ask you which Jazz player’s YouTube highlight inspired the comment section to evolve into a Hunger Games conversation and from there become a reflection on the long-standing oppression of the North Korean regime, you’d guess Tinsley, right?  Right?  Well, you’d be correct.  At this point, Tinsley is also the only player with a D-League highlight reel on YouTube (miss you, Blake Ahearn).  You throw the Malice in the Palace in there and Tinsley is suddenly a dark horse candidate for Utah’s YouTube MVP.

 

Offseason Accomplishments:  The Jazz picked up the second year option on his contract and so he bought a Jeep.

Patronus:  Jaguar

Stat to Watch: I’m going to go old school and say Field Goal Percentage.  As previously noted, if he’s not getting worn too thin, his shots will fall more.  It seems like we’ll be able to tell how well he is being used by how well he is shooting from the floor.  Unless, of course, he just regresses and shoots 35% all season… though I guess you’ll still know how well he’s being used in that case too.

Three Potential Outcomes of the Season:

1.  Through a combination of Earl Watson’s health and Randy Foye’s failure to raise his assist rate to a reasonable level, Tinsley gets the primary backup minutes, also filling in at starting point guard whenever Mo Williams gets hurt.  The results are a few great highlights, some solid transition offense, and a bunch of opposing point guards scoring at will on the Jazz.  His sheer entertainment value still outweighs his flaws and he continues to be a valuable contributor for the Jazz all season long.  His cagey play buys him two more years in the NBA before riding off into the sunset.

2.  He rides off into the sunset now.  Foye plays within the system, taking on a bulk of backup point guard minutes, and the Burks-at-PG experiment doesn’t completely fail, leaving no time for Tinsley or Watson.  They have a good time cheering for the team and playing in the event of injuries, foul trouble, or blowouts.  Otherwise, he starts a bunch of bench games with Earl Watson like who gets the most high fives after every big play or who can walk out closest to halfcourt during a timeout without looking weird.  He retires next summer and opens a Jeep car dealership.

3.  Situation #2 starts playing out, but Jamaal Tinsley can’t deal.  He sneaks back to Brooklyn and signs with the Harlem Globetrotters under his old street name, “Mel Mel the Abuser.”  He tears it up and quickly becomes a fan favorite.  Since nobody actually pays attention, including Ty Corbin, to the Harlem Globetrotters, no one notices that one of their players is currently under an NBA contract.  Sometime in February or so, when the Jazz are up on the Kings by 30 midway through the fourth quarter, Ty Corbin squints as he looks down the end of the bench.

Corbin:  ”Jamaal! You’re in!”

Earl Watson, suddenly perking up:  ”Coach, I don’t know where he is.  But he owes me fifty bucks because I walked all the way out to the center circle last timeout.”

Al Jefferson:  ”I haven’t seen him in like a week.”

Gordon Hayward:  ”It has actually been 48 days since he has participated with our team.  I corresponded with him briefly and he told me that he re-aggravated his left knee from an injury he sustained several years ago.  He said to call him if we actually need him.”

Corbin: “Uhhh, Earl.  Go in.”

/scene

 

In Jamaal Tinsley, JazzRank , ,
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JazzRank 15: Raja Bell

Jackson Rudd —  October 15, 2012 — 4 Comments

 

Unfortunately, we have to start JazzRank with Raja Bell, probably in part because we held the voting before preseason got going–or else he definitely would have at least fallen behind Chris Quinn (who at least threw an a perfect alley-oop to Alec Burks last Friday, which is one more highlight than Bell will pull out this year) and Darnell Jackson (who keeps getting enough playing time in these preseason games that we are becoming compelled to remember his name, despite his low chance of making the team), if not more.

Offseason Accomplishments:  Let’s see here… Since the season ended, Bell 1) burned through exit interviews with the spite of a spurned middle school ex-girlfriend, publicly calling out Ty Corbin’s coaching ability, leadership skills, and general manhood,  2) started hustling his resume to all of the contenders (read: Miami), pushing the glue guy angle right after he had sold out his previous team WHILE HE WAS STILL UNDER CONTRACT FOR ANOTHER YEAR, 3) balked at the chance to take a buyout, presumably hoping to cling to his 3 million dollar paycheck after testing the waters of free agency (read: Miami) and realizing he wasn’t as popular as he had hoped, 4) somehow showed enough willingness to compromise or something to keep the Jazz from using the amnesty clause to waive him and his salary from their books, and then 5) was deemed so toxic to team chemistry that he was barred from entering training camp with the rest of the team. He did graduate from Florida International in August and ran some basketball camps in India, so congratulations to Raja on that.

In the end, Bell’s second run with the Jazz is like Sufjan Stevens’ new, groundbreakingly bizarre Christmas song, Christmas Unicorn.  At first you think it’s cute and kind of funny, and then it keeps going and you slowly start thinking it is less and less cute until you suddenly realize you aren’t enjoying yourself at all and you’re listening to a social commentary that you hadn’t anticipated and never wanted and it keeps going and going and going and you want it to stop just so everyone can move on but it just keeps going and going and no one ever knows when it will end because Raja is still under contract and I don’t think anyone has made it to the end of the 12 minute song to confirm that it does, in fact, come to an end.

Patronus (you know, like from Harry Potter*):  Jellyfish

Stat to Watch:  Games Played.  The only statistical question worth asking right now is whether Raja Bell will suit up for an NBA game this year.

Three Potential Outcomes for the Season:

1.  The buyout never happens and Raja Bell hangs out with his family and brings in a cool 3 million while doing it.  Occasionally, at slow points in the season, the Salt Lake Tribune will follow up with him and ask Dennis Lindsey a couple of questions to try to stir things up again only to find there is not much to stir.  The lack of compromise hastens the end of Raja Bell’s career as no one is willing to take a chance on a 36-year-old a year removed from the speed of the game.  He goes on to get an assistant coaching job at his alma mater, FIU, and slowly moves out of the realm of public awareness.

2.  Raja Bell turns out to be as competitive as advertised and finally bites on the buyout option so that he can take the veteran’s minimum contract with Brooklyn.  He makes a valiant effort in his ten minutes a game off the bench and averages 7 points a game in Brooklyn’s first round loss to Philadelphia.

3.  Come January, when everyone is resigned to the outcome outlined in #1, Dennis Lindsey quietly makes a phone call to the Bay Area.  Bob Myers, the Golden State GM, picks up on the other line.  Of course, nearly halfway through the season, the Warriors will inevitably have lost all hope of a playoff berth and will be busily maximizing their losses through the rest of the year so that they don’t have to give Utah their pick.  The following conversation ensues:

DL: I know you guys are going to be looking to tank again this year.  I have a wonderful offer for you.

BM: How dare you!  We would never lose our integrity like that!  But, um, let’s hear the deal.

DL:  The offer I am about to make you will both ensure that you lose more games AND clear up cap space for you.

BM: Tell me!  TELL ME THE OFFER!!!

DL: Raja Bell for Harrison Barnes.  Straight up.  Well, plus maybe your second round draft pick.

BM: Done!

Lindsey hangs up the phone.  Kevin O’Connor sets down the cue cards he was holding for Lindsey and laughs maniacally.

/scene

 

 

 

 

*throughout JazzRank we are going to make the wild and totally indefensible assumption that, in the event of the actual existence of Hogwarts, and given proper training, all of the current Jazz players could develop the rare ability to cast corporeal Patronuses.  We apologize in advance to any Harry Potter fanatics who might be offended by such an assumption.

In JazzRank, Raja Bell , ,
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Jazz Statement on Raja Bell

Spencer Hall —  September 28, 2012 — 1 Comment

The saga of Raja Bell’s inauspicious second stint with the Jazz continues, but it won’t continue with him around the rest of the team. The Jazz partially answered one of the strangest questions of the off-season: What to do with the charred remains of the bridges burned by Bell last season?

The team released the following statement Friday afternoon:

SALT LAKE CITY (September 28, 2012) – Utah Jazz general manager Dennis Lindsey issued the following statement today regarding guard Raja Bell:

“I have spoken with Raja and his representative, Herb Rudoy, and we have mutually agreed that although Raja remains under contract, it is in the best interest of all parties that he not re-join the team next week when the Jazz begins training camp. We will now move forward focusing on Jazz basketball and our preparation for the upcoming season. We will have no further comment on this matter.”

The only way this scenario of makes sense is if the Jazz have a good idea of who will occupy roster spots next season and they can bide their time long enough to completely freeze out any opportunities Bell might otherwise have to join another team anytime soon.

Besides making his feelings unmistakably clear on his way out of locker clean out at the end of last season, Bell has made statements at stops all around the league listing all the top teams as potential destinations for his specific set of skills.

Interestingly, his pitch to the league has changed quite a bit since his bold exit. While he clearly considered himself an elite player in the league (and seemed to think the feeling was mutual), his statements to a radio station in Miami showed he was willing to market himself as simply an experienced veteran willing to fit in in a limited role. But with a contender, of course.

The two-time member of NBA All-Defensive teams said he appreciates any role would be limited.

“At my age and what I’ve got in my tank, I feel like a limited role is best,” he said. “I don’t really like playing 35 minutes a night anymore.”

Shane Battier currently stands as the Heat’s lone perimeter defensive specialist, although LeBron James often takes the critical perimeter defensive assignment in crucial situations.

“As much as I control what I do, I don’t,” Bell said. “The Jazz hold my rights, they are the owners of the contract. And so if they tell me I’m coming back to camp, then I have to go back to camp.

So apparently Bell returned to Utah on Monday for his physical, hoping to get word one way or another on his status with the team and to work out details of his departure. The Jazz appear to have reciprocated with the NBA equivalent of Time Out.

In Raja Bell
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Condensed Season? No Problem

Jeff Lind —  January 26, 2012 — 1 Comment

Note from the Editor: Spencer Horner joins Salt City Hoops to chat condensed season and this young Utah Jazz team.

Tom Smart, Deseret News

Last fall, I told my wife that an NBA season was the only present I wanted this Christmas. I got my wish. However, the season has arrived with basketball’s top minds predicting it to be one of the sloppiest in NBA history. With only a few days of training camp and a shortened preseason, teams haven’t had much time to gel and players are in their worst shape ever.

The jam packed 66 game schedule hasn’t helped much either. Teams are playing 4 or 5 games a week, which means less time for practice, player development, and team strategy. This also means less time for injury recovery, meaning more banged up veterans. Injuries are going to mount up and NBA Darwinism is going to favor the young, and athletic.

As the Jazz have started a playoff worthy season, it struck me that this team is built for lockout season success. First, they are younger than ever at an average age of 26. But more importantly, the Jazz’s roster is deeper than ever.

Tyrone Corbin has the team on a consistent 10 man rotation, keeping lineups fresh with frequent substitutions. Al Jefferson has anchored the team as the highest scoring center in the West with 18.3 ppg. But on any given night, Millsap and Favors are also capable of posting consistent double-doubles. Coach has now worked rookie Alec Burks into the every game corps of Jazz wings including Bell, Hayward, Miles, and Howard. Don’t leave Earl out either. Watson has been awarded bigger minutes, providing a consistent floor general for the Jazz’s second unit. In recent weeks, coach has had Watson and Harris on an equal split.

This young and athletic lineup will allow Coach Corbin to outrun opponents over the course of a game, hopefully, leading to easier points in transition. Their roster depth will also continue to mitigate the risk of injury throughout the brutal condensed schedule. There have been games this season where 5 or more players have offered double digit points. If a player goes down or has a bad day, another can fill in the gaps. This year’s Jazz are a team of talented role players that can have each other’s back night after night.

On a defensive note, I almost did a full Hollywood spit-take when I heard that the Jazz were leading the NBA in blocked shots earlier this season. I don’t think I can remember the last time I heard that statistic being associated with the team. Now, at the close of last week, the Jazz were top 10 in Blocks, and Forced Turnovers. I’m not saying we should hang a “We are Swat Lake City” banner or rename the stadium “Defensive Solutions Arena,” but it’s obvious that the Jazz are playing some great team defense.

I’m excited. The Jazz are coming together as team and chemistry is developing. They are devoted to defense, and playing unselfishly. Add that up and they have the potential to be one of the most athletic and talented teams in Jazz history.

But the Jazz’s biggest tests are yet to come. They’ve had their fair share of and haven’t proven themselves against major contenders yet. We’ll see how fit they are for this unique season

Follow Spencer on Twitter!

In Al Jefferson, Gordon Hayward, NBA, Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz
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Poking the Hornet’s Nest

Jeff Lind —  December 9, 2011 — 4 Comments

I’ve been sitting here for a few hours trying to find the right words to express what I’m feeling about this Paul/Lakers/Stern hoopla. I’ve got nothing… I don’t know what to say. Instead, here’s a timeline of last night’s events as they unfolded to me:

3:58 pm: The trade was originally reported as follows (by a twitter MUST follow Adrian Wojnarowski):

I was furious. Not at the league, per se, but at the Lakers… here they were pulling off another blockbuster trade, while keeping all their major pieces of a championship contender in place. Imagining the Lakers with Paul, Kobe, AND Gasol was too much. Super teams… you guys win.

At 3:58.30 pm I tweeted this:

And I meant it. The league JUST went through a lockout with a major focus on bringing parity and competitive balance to the league! This particular trade seemed to flush all of that, and let the Lakers trade three quarters for a silver dollar.

At 4:06 pm this happened:

That changed my feelings completely. Suddenly, the Lakers didn’t seem so scary. They were forced to give up Gasol and Odom (the length that REALLY killed the Jazz year after year), and they were left with Kobe (bad knees), Bynum (bad knee), and Chris Paul (no knee at all). In a compressed 66 game season, they’d be hard pressed to come out of it in one serviceable piece. I mean, sure, they’d be scary in spurts… but when you’re playing back to back to backs on those legs, you’re going to have major rotation problems.

The three team trade was supposed to go something like this:

Lakers:

  • Get: Chris Paul
  • Give: Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom
An exciting gamble for the Lakers. They get the (second) best point guard in the league, and pair him with Mamba. This gives them at least two seasons to make a run at the finals with two of the best five players in the league.

Rockets:

  • Get: Gasol, cap room for new free agent
  • Give: Luis Scola, Lamar Odom, Kevin Martin
They get one of the top centers/players in the league to replace Yao, and have a ton of cap room to get a new free agent. The Rockets are a team that have notoriously stashed assets for a moment like this, and they finally made their move.

New Orleans:

  • Get: Luis Scola, Lamar Odom, Kevin Martin
  • Give: Chris Paul
New Orleans made the most of the hand they were dealt, and turned their all star PG into a core of players they can build around. I’ll be honest, if the Jazz had pulled this trade off for D-Will (who I consider to be better than CP3), I’d have been happy.
Looking at it like that, things seemed relatively fair. I started to feel better. Sure, the thought of Chris Paul on the Lakers forced blood from my eyes, but when you see what LA had to give up to get him, it made sense. And it was finished. Done.

Then at 7:07 pm THIS HAPPENED:

Turns out the league owned Hornets (see: 29 owners and David Stern), were not impressed with this trade, and they were not going to let it happen. Owners lost it, complained to David, and Stern made the final decision to kill the trade. Unprecedented. All hell broke loose, EVERYWHERE. My twitter feed, emails, and texts blew up. Before I went to bed, I had over 50 emails in my inbox, and when I woke up I had almost 30 more waiting. I saw everything from “David Stern was right” to “David Stern has lost his mind.”

Today:
The overwhelming emotion I’ve seen is one of disappointment and confusion. People don’t understand why Stern felt like he had to move on this. Local media is furious, the National Media is gathering pitchforks, and the TrueHoop network is going nuts. NBA fans are in shock. I’ve heard educated journalists say that this is the end of David Stern. Some are even saying this is worse than the Donaghy game fixing.  I wouldn’t go that far, but the waters are certainly muddied, and here’s why:
  1. This comes across like Stern, as commissioner, killed the deal. This isn’t true. Stern killed the deal as a representative of the collective Hornets ownership (the other 29 owners). Boiled down, it would be like Gail Miller saying “no” to the Williams trade at the eleventh hour and (as an owner) it’s her right.
  2. This is the problem with the LEAGUE OWNING A TEAM. It’s idiotic. How can a collective ownership of 29 individuals be trusted to make the same choices an independent owner would in a vacuum when bajillions of dollars are on the line? It’s not possible. Not when the stakes are this high.
  3. If this doesn’t get resolved in a satisfying way, does it hang a “Fire Sale” sign around the Hornets franchise? I say yes. If this trade block stands, CP3 ain’t getting traded… ever, which means in all likelihood he’ll leave for nothing next season. If there wasn’t an argument for contraction before today, here it is… signed, sealed, & delivered. This effectively neuters the Hornets franchise.
The Commissioner’s office has defended the decision with the following:
“All decisions are made on the basis of what is in the best interests of the Hornets. In the case of the trade proposal that was made to the Hornets for Chris Paul, we decided, free from the influence of other NBA owners, that the team was better served with Chris in a Hornets uniform than by the outcome of the terms of that trade.”
Whether the decision was truly made freely from the influence of other NBA owners is debatable, and I’ll leave it to you to decide if the trade was blocked for true “basketball reasons.” Regardless, I think this trade will ultimately go through. David Stern is getting publicly crucified for his role in this, and he knows it. It’s only a matter of time before public opinion rings so loud that it deafens out his ability to lead effectively. Either he’ll step down, or fix it. I’m willing to bet that with the OUT he’s being offered with team appeals, he’ll ultimately let the trade happen. Otherwise… who knows where this will end up. As fans, we collectively got over the lockout pretty quickly, but what kind of lingering effects will this fiasco leave on the league? Time will tell.

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In Players, Uncategorized , , , , ,
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Gordon Hayward takes his talents to Atlantic City

Spencer Hall —  September 7, 2011 — Leave a comment

Gordon Hayward has signed with a professional league and will be taking his talents elsewhere during the NBA lockout. It isn’t basketball, though. Hayward will join IGN’s Professional Video Game League and play in the first professional StarCraft II tournament at Ceasars in Atlantic City on October 6-9.

Hopefully this leads Hayward to try his hand in other professional leagues. He still needs to take a shot at professional tennis and I think we all saw some latent baseball talent when he played catch with Deron Williams.

Anyway, this should be a fun event. Check out what Hayward had to say about it:

From the press release:

SAN FRANCISCO – September 7, 2011 – NBA player and Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward is trying his hand at professional video gaming (“eSports”) and has partnered with the IGN Pro League (IPL) – the professional video game league presented by IGN Entertainment, the world’s leading video games media company.

During this unique time in the NBA, in addition to his daily basketball training, Hayward is pursuing his passion outside of basketball – video games – and will compete in his first eSports event, IPL 3: Origins, taking place October 6-9th at Caesars Atlantic City. In his debut as professional basketball player-turned-video game player, Hayward will join top StarCraft II players from around the world to compete in the Atlantic City tournament.

“I’ve been playing video games for as long as I can remember. I’m a competitive guy, and I love the competitive nature of video games,” says Gordon Hayward. “Pro-gamers are really sports stars themselves. The mental strategy that goes into planning your next move and what your opponent is going to do are skills you need to be successful playing basketball – and playing StarCraft II. If you want to be good, you have to put a lot of time and effort into it, just like with other sports. I’ve got the best of both worlds. I spend time each day on the court taking my game to the next level, and I am pursuing my passion for eSports. I’m excited to join the IGN Pro League and see how I do at the tournament in Atlantic City.”

In between his usual training for the NBA, Hayward is being prepared by the IGN Pro League coaches, some of the world’s top StarCraft players. Hayward will be one of the primary participants at IPL 3: Origins and will challenge global StarCraft II stars, including IdrA, Select and WhiteRa.

Players and fans who attend the Caesars Atlantic City event will witness Hayward playing alongside 256 other qualifying players to compete for a $100,000 prize pool.

Check out more from the interview with Hayward:

IGN on Twitter

Gordon Hayward on Twitter

In Blog, Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz
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Off-Season Decisions for the Utah Jazz – Part 2 of 4

Jeff Lind —  May 12, 2011 — 5 Comments

[Editor's Note: As the playoffs move forward, we continue to discuss the future of the Utah Jazz. Nick Smith joins Salt City Hoops to chat current players. Who stays, who goes, and how bright are their respective futures? Join us for part 2 of this 4 part series. - JL]

Devin Harris – 6’3 PG

Ksl.com

Current Contract Situation. Harris is under contract next season with the Jazz for $9,319,000. His contract will then expire after the 2012/2013 season where he will collect $8.5 million.

Future with the Jazz. Devin Harris has been a player the Jazz have hoped to land since his days in Dallas. They like his quickness, good attitude, and pesky defense. Harris was an all-star in 2009, but since that time, the injury prone point guard’s game has regressed. It’ll be interesting to see if being back in a winning atmosphere can return Harris’ game to a high level. The Jazz were 7-10 with Harris in their lineup, which doesn’t sound like much, but overall it is much better than where they were without him. He also deserves credit for doing a good job of coming in and playing his game and not trying to do the impossible in replacing Deron Williams. Watch for an improved defensive game and a nice increase to his 5 APG career average. Although I see this Ludacris look-alike returning to the lineup next year (his contract is too affordable), he could potentially be a player the Jazz end up packaging alongside a draft pick to either move up in the draft or to acquire other assets.

Fransisco Elson – 7-0 C

AP Associated Press

Current Contract Situation. Fransisco Elson signed a one-year deal with the Jazz last off-season for the veteran’s minimum $1,146,337. He is now a free agent.

Future with the Jazz. This was likely the one and only season Elson will play for the Jazz. When healthy, Elson is a big man who runs the floor very well, brings toughness to the court, and can occasionally hit the outside jumper. If the Jazz enter next season needing to add another big man, fans shouldn’t be totally opposed to Elson grabbing that 12th roster spot. Elson has championship experience, and his good attitude and veteran leadership make him an affordable mentor for some of the Jazz’ younger players. Saying that, father time has taken his toll on Elson, and the 35 year-old has struggled to stay healthy. With the addition of Derrick Favors, and the possibility of one of the Jazz’ two draft picks being a big man, I see Elson as the odd man out for next year’s roster. It may just come down to Fesenko or Elson, and with the Sisco Kid’s age, I imagine the Jazz decide in favor of the Ukrainian.

Al Jefferson – 6’10 PF/C

Courtside

Current Contract Situation. Al Jefferson has two more years left on his current deal. He will make $14,000,000 next year and $15,000,000 during the 2012/2013 season.

Future with the Jazz. Big Al’s first year with the Jazz was a tale of two halves. The first half of the season Jefferson struggled to be consistent and figure out the flex offense, while the second half of the season he was the 20 and 10 type player Jazz fans had hoped for. While the increase in productivity was great to see, there was a disconnect between the Jazz’ success and Big Al’s. At age 26, it’s fair to say that Jefferson’s best years are still ahead of him, but a major concern still exists, namely: can he be a star on a winning team? With a sample size of 7 seasons, Jefferson hasn’t been on a team with a winning record once. In fact, the only three month period in which he was on a winning team he struggled to play well. Unfortunately for Jefferson, statistics show that the amount of points he scores in games has a negative correlation with how much his team is winning. During his short time with the Jazz (and in his defense), roster changes and injuries were more to blame for the team losing than Big Al’s lack of effort, or leadership. He showed huge heart the second half of the year. He mentioned that he came to Utah for three reasons; to play for Coach Sloan, to play alongside Deron, and to finally be on a winning team. At the end of the season, Jefferson didn’t have any of those to hang his hat on. Instead, he was back on a losing team that decided to begin re-building midway through his first season. He had every right to be disappointed, but he continued to work hard to improve his game.  Look for Jefferson to continue his improvement while he gets more comfortable in the Jazz’ system. Also, Derrick Favors’ length and athleticism should make Al’s job on defense much easier than playing alongside the undersized Millsap. As for his future, I don’t see the Jazz moving Jefferson. Hopefully his game will further adjust to fit what the Jazz need from their big man, and if the team can add some shooters, his job of scoring in the paint will be easier than it has been. With multiple draft picks and other uprising young players, there should be plenty of talent to help Al Jefferson buck his reputation of being the cause for bad teams.

Watch for article number three later this week as I take a close look at the decisions awaiting the next group of Jazz men; Earl Watson, Raja Bell, Ronnie Price, and Kyrylo Fesenko.

PART 1

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In Al Jefferson, NBA, Opinion, Uncategorized, Utah Jazz
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