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Division Previews: Phoenix Suns, Pacific Division – Western Conference

Jefferson —  October 26, 2010 — Leave a comment

In the final days leading up to regular season action, SCH will be posting divisional previews of the top teams in all six NBA divisions. Come back early and often for updates.

The Once and Future PG Kings

Key Matchups

Steve Nash v. D-Will

This matchup showcases two of the very best point guards that play the game.  Steve Nash is a senior citizen by NBA standards – he’s 36 years old and his résumé includes a 14 year tenure in the league.  If you watch the guy napping on the sidelines while he rests, you’d think he was preparing for the stretcher to come haul him away. Despite his aching back and limited minutes, Steve Nash continues to impress.  Last season, he averaged 16.5 points and 11 assists.  Sure, running mate Amar’e Staudemire bolted for the Big Apple and a huge payday, but in the uptempo Suns’ offense, Nash will literally run circles around opponents and put up huge numbers for such a little guy.  Though Deron Williams and the Utah Jazz run a much more structured offense, D-Will in the open court looks an awful lot like a young Steve Nash: great decision making, court vision, a deadly pull-up J, and the ability to make his teammates better.  Despite the age difference, Grandpa Nash vs. D-Will is always fun to watch.

Robin Lopez v. Big Al

With the departure of Amar’e, Lopez will be forced to play more minutes than last year (he only logged 24 mins/game last year).  This just may be the season that Robin Lopez emerges as one of the better big-men in the West.  In his limited court time last year, Lopez put up more than 11 points, 6 rebounds, and 1 block.  Lopez might be an inch or two taller than Jefferson, but Big Al is much stronger.  Al Jefferson ought to have his way with Lopez in the paint – and should be able to score and rebound at will.  Where Utah wins this matchup, though, is with its bench.  Currently, the depth chart for the Suns at center is anemic – actually, it’s just Lopez (although 6’11″ power forward Channing Frye can play some minutes at center).  Utah’s bigs ought to overwhelm the Phoenix front line, especially once Okur returns from his injury.

High Notes | Low Notes

Although Phoenix watched its team dwindle in free agency, it received some pretty nice pieces to fill out its roster.  Setting Suns include the aforementioned Amar’e, Brazilian speedster Leandro Barbosa, and Louis Amundson.  In return, Phoenix acquired Hedo Turkoglu, Hakim Warrick, and Josh Childress.  While the additions appear to offset the key off-season losses, Phoenix is an injury or two from missing the playoffs.

History

Phoenix leads the all-time series 81-71, including a victory over the Jazz in the season finale last year (heartbreaking for Jazz fans).  Recall that the winner of the final game of the regular season would clinch home court advantage and the third seed in the Western Conference.  The loser would be relegated to fifth, opening the playoffs on the road.  In that ever-so-important game, Utah’s leading scorer and rebounder, Carlos Boozer, watched from the sidelines with a strained oblique – the same injury that you get after too many Halloween sweets.  You know the rest.  Paul Millsap and Mehmet Okur got into foul trouble, and the Jazz struggled to find their rhythm.  Phoenix went on to win the game, clinch the third playoff seed (and home court advantage) – and fight their way into the Western Conference Finals (only to be ousted by the juggernaut Lakers).  Anyone else wish Al Jefferson was playing in that game instead of Boozer?

Player/Coach Notes

Phoenix’s roster includes four players drafted in the top ten:

  • Jason Richardson – 5th overall by Golden State in 2001.
  • Grant Hill – 3rd overall by Detroit in 1994.
  • Channing Frye – 8th overall by the New York Knicks in 2005.
  • Josh Childress – 6th overall by Atlanta in 2004.

Steve Nash has missed just 10 games in the past 3 years.

Of active NBA players, only Kurt Thomas and Shaquille O’Neal are older than 38 year old Grant Hill.

Outlook

The Jazz will get an early look at the Suns for the Utah home-opener on October 28th.  Unfortunately, this comes on the second night of a back-to-back (the Achilles Heel for past Utah teams).  That first home game has the potential to set the Jazz on course for another solid season at ESA, and start off the back-to-back record on the right foot.  Utah gets its second and third (and final) looks at Los Suns just before the All-Star break with a home and home set.  Phoenix is a bit of an enigma to me.  If they stay healthy and cohesive, they can run with anyone in the league – thought to be outside the playoff race last year, the Suns made a unlikely run to the Western Conference Finals.  One injury to a key player, though, and Phoenix will have to re-tool to compete in a pretty tough Western Conference.

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Contact Jefferson W. Boswell at jeffersonboz [AT] gmail [DOT] com

In Al Jefferson, Deron Williams, Divisional Previews, NBA, Utah Jazz , , , ,
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Division Previews: Dallas Mavericks, Southwest Division – Western Conference

Brian Henderson —  October 26, 2010 — Leave a comment

In the final days leading up to regular season action, SCH will be posting divisional previews of the top teams in all six NBA divisions. Come back early and often for updates.

Overview

No Mark, you can't play in the games.

The Mavericks are a head-scratching bunch. 50 plus wins in each of the past ten seasons, and a first round exit in three of the past four, despite being perennial favorites to advance deep into the playoffs after their NBA Finals appearance against the Miami Heat in 2006. Mad Hatter Mark Cuban spares no expense to assemble the most talented roster he can buy, but the Mavs have suffered some chemistry problems, it seems, despite having done so. This is Dirk Nowitzki’s team, and he carries the burden of their success, whomever else the team surrounds him with. With offseason acquisitions, nearly half of the team is new. Dallas has only a couple of seasons left with the current core to make a march on the Lakers and return to the Finals. Can they do it? They have the talent. Will they? If the Jazz don’t do it, I’m rooting for these guys.

Key Matchups

Expect to see the following starting lineup this season for Dallas: Jason Kidd – PG, Rodrigue Beaubois – SG, Caron Butler – SF, Dirk Nowitzki-PF, Brendan Haywood – C. The following key reserves will be coming off the bench: Tyson Chandler, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion and DeShawn Stevenson.

Dirk Nowitzki vs. Paul Millsap

Nowitzki may be one of Millsap’s toughest challenges this season. The way he spreads the floor by shooting from anywhere on the court spells trouble for Millsap, who’s much more comfortable in the post. Expect Nowitzki to have the edge in these matchups.

Jason Kidd vs. Deron Williams

Jason Kidd is one of the best point guards to ever play the game. He is top five all-time in assists. At age 37, having developed an outside shooting threat over his career, he shows no signs of slowing down. Old Guard vs. New Guard, these two seem to have parallel skills and dominance on the court.

Caron Butler and Andrei Kirilenko are evenly matched, as are Brendan Haywood and Al Jefferson. Nevermind the backup center, Tyson Chandler, may be the best #2 center in the NBA.

High Notes | Low Notes

The Mavericks are healthy thus far, which seems to be a good sign. Nearly half the team is new, which normally would be cause for concern. But such is the case with the Jazz, so, if the Mavericks can make it work, more power to them. The primary question that goes unanswered is this: Why does Dallas keep losing in the playoffs with all the talent Cuban has brought to the team?

History

The Mavericks and Jazz have only met twice in the post season, with Dallas sending Utah packing in the first round in 1986 and 2001.

Coach Notes

Head Coach Rick Carlisle had a scare this preseason with a training camp fainting spell. But this 2002 NBA Coach of the Year (with the Pistons) is back in the saddle and ready to go. He’s got an ability to relate to players (himself a former Celtic from the 1986 championship team) and he dials in his player strengths well.

Outlook

Ich werde diesen Ball in die Menge gestellt! (Photo: nba.com)

Utah plays Dallas twice in eight days in early December, followed by a late February road game and a late March home game.

Expect the Mavericks to always be in the mix as long as veterans Nowitzki and Kidd are leading the charge. Few will be surprised at a Lakers – Mavericks Western Conference Finals showdown come springtime. Then again, few will be surprised if the Mavs follow their recent pattern of bowing out to lesser talent in the first round. Which Dallas team will the NBA get this season? I’m expecting the former.

In Deron Williams, Divisional Previews, NBA, Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz , , , , ,
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Division Previews: San Antonio Spurs, Southwest Division – Western Conference

Jefferson —  October 25, 2010 — 2 Comments

In the final days leading up to regular season action, SCH will be posting divisional previews of the top teams in all six NBA divisions. Come back early and often for updates.

Manu and Millsap demonstrate Spurs and Jazz Basketball - If you're not bleeding, you're not playing hard enough. Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images

Key Matchups

Tim Duncan v. Al Jefferson & Company

Tim Duncan (AKA the Big Fundamental, AKA a quiet, boring, dominant MVP) is getting old.  He’s 34 years old and this will be his 14th season in the league.  For his career, he’s averaged 21.1 points per game to go along with 11.6 rebounds.  Much to the chagrin of John Stockton and Karl Malone, David Robinson pegs Duncan as the best power forward ever to play the game (for a extended discussion comparing Duncan and Malone, check out this posting).  Duncan is a lock for the Hall of Fame, for sure.  Last season, his numbers dropped a bit, but he still averaged 17 points and 10 boards.  He may be getting old, but don’t count him out – his fundamentals serve him well, on both offense and defense.

In the sweep-clenching game last year, Duncan scored just 14 points (leaving his career point total at 19,999 – he’d pass 20K two nights later against Houston).  In that effort, Duncan went 1-5 against Millsap (for 2 points) and 1-7 against Okur (for 5 points).  Against other defenders, Duncan went 3-3 for 7 points.  Al, Paul, Memo and company will guard Duncan by committee, as usual.  The youth and depth of the Jazz ought to translate to reduced output from the Senior Statesman from San Antonio.

Tony Parker v. D-Will

When healthy, Tony Parker must be included in the discussion of the top five point guards in the league.  Unfortunately, Mr. Eva Longoria watched a good chunk of last season from the bench.  Never finding a rhythm during the year, he posted average numbers – 16 points and 5.7 dimes.  A breakout season may be looming – his contract expires at season’s end and Parker will be playing for a raise. If he stays healthy, he ought to have a pretty decent year.  Playing against Utah in only 3 of the 4 games last season, Parker averaged 21 points and 3.3 assists.  Parker gives up nearly 30 pounds to D-Will, so look for D-Will to work him into the paint and find the open man once the double-team comes.  Deron didn’t dominate him as he could have last year, but he was the far superior play-maker.  If this matchup is decided on the court (rather than by injuries), this should be fun to watch.

High Notes | Low Notes

Age

Like Boston, San Antonio is flirting with the upper-age-threshold for success.  The starting five for the Spurs (Parker, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, and Duncan) combine for 53 seasons of NBA experience.  Granted, there are still some miles on their collective tires, but the tread is starting to wear thin.  Despite their age (or because of their experience), the Spurs advanced to the Western Conference Semi-Finals last year, only to be swept by Phoenix.

Consistency

This team is good.  The organization is sound.  Coach Pop knows what he’s doing.  The players know that they are on a perennial playoff team that can contend for a title.  Unless their age and/or injuries catch up with them, San Antonio will continue to be a winner.

History

The Spurs lead the all-time series 82-72.  Prior to last season’s four-game sweep on the Spurs, Utah hadn’t won in San Antonio since February 28, 1999.  It was the first season-sweep of the Spurs since 1993-1994.   During that dominance of the Jazz, the Spurs reached Dynasty-Status, winning championships in 1999 and 2003 on the backs of Duncan and the Admiral David Robinson, and ‘chips in 2005 and 2007 with stars Duncan, Parker and Ginobili (“GINOBILI!”).

Player/Coach Notes

Jerry Sloan and Gregg Popovich are the two longest tenured coaches in the league.  Though the coaching carousel continues each season, the benches in San Antonio and Salt Lake City never seem to change.

Tim Duncan was one of three players to post their 20,000th career point last season.  Joining him in the feat were Dallas’ Dirk Nowitski and Boston’s Ray Allen.

Notorious sixth-man Manu Ginobili will actually start for the Spurs this year.  He started only 21 games last season when filling in for an injured Tony Parker.  Much like Sloan, Coach Pop likes to toy with the line-up.  Don’t be too surprised if Manu returns to the bench, but still puts up starter’s minutes.

Outlook

Many think that the window on their dynasty is closed.  With a elite head coach like Pop and quality, veteran talent, they could still surprise some people this season.  My best guess, though, is that age and injuries will keep San Antonio from seriously challenging in the West once the playoffs roll around.  The Jazz only face the Spurs three times this season (twice in Utah).  I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that San Antonio will steal one from Utah at home (maybe on Jan. 26th after the Jazz fly in late from a game against the Lakers on Jan. 25th?).  Utah showed us last year that it is capable of winning in the Alamodome – Utah takes this series 2-1 this year.

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Contact Jefferson W. Boswell at jeffersonboz [AT] gmail [DOT] com

In Al Jefferson, Deron Williams, Divisional Previews, NBA, Utah Jazz , , , ,
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Division Previews: Oklahoma City Thunder, Northwest Division – Western Conference

Brian Henderson —  October 21, 2010 — 3 Comments

In the final days leading up to regular season action, SCH will be posting divisional previews of the top teams in all six NBA divisions. Come back early and often for updates.

Overview

The Original Young Guns, who were also not to be underestimated.

This will mark the third season in Oklahoma for the team formerly known as Prince. Wait. Formerly known as the Seattle Sonics. (I know. Especially with Sonics and Kevin Durant uber-fan Paul Brogan unleashing YouTube classics like this, I was sad to see them bolt the Great Northwest, too.) Two years ago, the Thunder won 23 games. Last year they won 50. So, is the 2010-2011 version of the Oklahoma City Thunder another slick piece of marketing propaganda from David Stern and company at the league PR office? Or is this upstart team filled with a roster of ten players age 24 or younger about to assert themselves as a perennial Western Conference power? What should you believe?

Believe that the darling of the 2010 playoffs who took the Lakers to six tough games in the first round is not a flash in the pan. Believe that if they can avoid the sophomore slump, their 27-game turnaround from the previous season will grow this season. Believe that last year’s league scoring champion and all-around phenom, Kevin Durant, could be named the MVP of the league this spring. Believe that whatever happens, Durant will lead his Young Guns out of the first round at least, if not further, in the 2011 playoffs. Believe this: OKC is for real. Let’s talk about why.

Key Matchups

Allow me to introduce OKC’s starting five: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha, Jeff Green, and Nenad Krstic. Key names coming off the bench include: Nick Collison, James Harden, Daequan Cook, Serge Ibaka, and Eric Maynor. What’s the quick takeaway for you here? A strong, young starting five and a reserve unit that is among the deepest in the league.

Kevin Durant vs. The World

One way to stop KD...the Flying Dolphin. (Photo: bleacherreport.com)

Durant’s soft-spoken demeanor betrays his on-court leadership. He was the unequivocal leader of Team USA’s gold medal run this summer at the FIBA World Championship in Turkey. Lest you forget, OKC point guard and rising NBA star Russell Westbrook was at his side for the entire run, which only enhances the growing on-court chemistry for the pair this season. (More on Westbrook in a moment.) Durant’s game is deceptively effortless, and NBA writer Scoop Jackson has compared his play to that of George “Iceman” Gervin, who made his every move look as easy as water rolling downhill. The best Utah can hope for is to stifle Durant when he penetrates the lane, force him to kick the ball out a little more than he normally would, and hope the post game stat sheet shows 22 points instead of 32.

D-Will vs. Russell Westbrook

Why should you pay attention to Russell Westbrook? Westbrook has quietly become one of the best point guards in the Western Conference. For a guy many expected to be nothing more than a role player, this is quite an accomplishment. He will have his hands full with D-Will, who is bigger, but Westbrook will be scrappy to be sure.

Paul Millsap vs. Jeff Green

This may be the matchup to watch. Jeff Green is the Thunder’s rebounding machine, and if he can make strides in that area this year, he will be the difference maker for many OKC wins. Remember, the Thunder ultimately lost game 6 against the Lakers on a missed defensive rebound that Pau Gasol scooped into the hoop after Kobe’s missed baseline jumper. Rebounding will, consequently, be a continuing mantra for the Thunder and Green is the heart of that effort. He and Millsap will be nicely matched, as both are underrated scorers as well.

Thabo Sefolosha/James Harden vs. Raja Bell/C.J. Miles

Thabo will start against Raja. Both are able scorers and tough defenders. But watch James Harden off the bench, the former 3rd overall pick whose game is really improving after his rookie year last season, in which he scored almost 10 points a game in 22 minutes a night. Both of those numbers will rise as his role grows on this team.

High Notes | Low Notes

It would be a mistake to believe this team’s success is built on their scoring prowess. It’s a sleight-of-hand. This is a crew of rapscallion defenders of the highest order. These guys are too young to know how to get away with sloppy D. They are alive, and electric, and Head Coach Scotty Brooks has them convinced that the road to a championship is paved with iron-clad defense.

One potential low note is the psychological effect of becoming a target of everyone in the league for having become the darling of the NBA so quickly. Could this newfound bullseye on their back create enough of a shift in the environment to knock them off their 50 win pace of last season? While it’s possible, I doubt it. Not with Brooks’ coaching and the roster’s up and down hunger for winning after tasting it in the series against Los Angeles.

History

The Jazz went 3-1 vs. the Thunder during their 23 win 2008-2009 season, their first in Oklahoma City. Last year, the Jazz were 1-2 against OKC. This is the sum of the short rivalry between these teams, notwithstanding the days in Seattle, which we’ve buried with a reservoir of tears. RIP Jazz Killer Eddie Johnson, Gary Payton, Shawn “Johnny Appleseed” Kemp, and company.

Coach Notes

For his efforts leading the Thunder turnaround, Scott Brooks was named NBA Coach of the Year. His team buys into his coaching philosophy, which Jazz fans can appreciate. He’s short. He played 10 years in the NBA. He won a championship with the 1994 Houston Rockets. His players like him. That’s all I’ve got here, folks.

Outlook

He makes it look so easy.

The OKC franchise has built this team largely through the draft, which gives them a sense of pride at home-growing this group of youngsters. Clay Bennett and his ownership group had cap space to chase a big dollar free agent, but these guys want to do this on their own terms, and who can blame them, with the young talent they’ve acquired? In the most unnoticed move of the summer, Durant signed a 5 year max contract extension with a nonchalant whisper through Twitter, in stark contrast to LeBron’s “Decision”. In fact, Durant’s favorite motto: “Hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard.” You get the sense from the way he goes about his business that he believes it. It makes it easy to root for him and this team.

The Jazz matchups with OKC will be among the most kinetic games of the season. For you basketball purists, this matchup will showcase the orchestral beauty of this game–offensively and defensively–in full regale. In short, these games will be pretty to watch. Utah catches OKC at its freshest as two of the team’s first 11 games are against the Thunder. The next two games come in early February and late March. The latter will be a nice test of how the Jazz can handle a stifling defense and manic offensive movement down the stretch.

The Poetry of Basketball, with thanks to Mr. Whitman. (Photo: Red Cedar Writing Project)

If I were the Jazz, I’d want to catch these guys sooner than later in the playoffs too, before the OKC kids get in over their heads and not realizing it, play out of their heads to the dismay of whoever stands in their way. Don’t give them more credit than they’ve earned quite yet, but they stand toe to toe with the Jazz lineup in the “who’s second best in the west behind LA” category. To the victor go the spoils.

In CJ Miles, Deron Williams, Divisional Previews, NBA, Paul Millsap, Raja Bell, Utah Jazz , , , , , , ,
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