Déjà Vu? Jazz’s Loss to Atlanta Costs Them in Playoff Positioning

March 21st, 2019 | by Steve Godfrey

Rubio’s 17 and Mitchell’s 34 weren’t enough in Atlanta (Scott Cunningham via espn.com)

Last season, an unexpected loss to the Atlanta Hawks in game 71 of the season became a determining factor in why the Jazz lost out of homecourt advantage in the NBA playoffs that spring. A similar slip-up on Thursday night caused the Jazz to slip from fifth place to seventh in a complex, four-way tiebreaker. A win in Atlanta would have brought the Jazz to just 1.5 games out of the No. 4 seed in the west, but thanks to rookie Trae Young and the home team’s three-point shooting, the Hawks proved spoiler again. 

The Jazz entering the contest as heavy favorites, riding a streak of five straight wins by margins of 16-plus, while the Hawks were on a three-game losing spree. Instead, the Hawks won 117-114, surging from behind in the game’s final five minutes. Four Western Conference teams, including the Jazz, now share a 42-30 record, tied for playoff spots 5-8. 

The Jazz led by as many as eight in the final quarter, and they Jazz certainly had a chance even after Atlanta made its run. Down by three with six seconds left, Kyle Korver was fouled at angle left on a shot attempt, only to realize he had his foot on the three-point line. He went to the line for two free throws, but missed the first and then intentionally missed the second. Hope lingered in the air as Donovan Mitchell grabbed an offensive rebound, raced to the three-point line, and threw up a good look, but it fell short. 

It should be noted that the Hawks weren’t just going to be a pushover as they have been running and scoring since the All-Star break. Specifically, the team has put up 119.5 points a contest since the break, which ranks 2nd best in that span. Young and the shooters like to get out and run, they have the second-fastest pace in the league. That pace proved problematic for the Jazz, who were coming off a back-to-back.  It also helps when you shoot 19-for-40 from deep.

Despite blowing out the Knicks the night prior, Jazz head coach Quin Snyder wasn’t impressed with the overall team defense in New York. After the game, he said, “Every minute of every game we need to defend the right way and play the game the right way.” Thursday night must’ve been even more disappointing as the Hawks shot 47 percent from the field, 47 percent from deep, and picked up 16 fast break points. The Jazz kept pace from the field, but were only 10-of-32 from deep for 31 percent. 

Young, specifically, was a problem for the Jazz defense. In the first few minutes of the game, he had six points and three assists (all for 3-point shots) as the game became tied 19-19. He set the tone for the game and was in control, even spacing Rudy Gobert out as he would easily get into the lane. Gobert, early, wasn’t able to alter any of Young’s shots. On one occasion, Young drove past Ricky Rubio, putting him on his hip, and then faked Gobert out by slowing down his dribble while then going between his own legs en route to a reverse layup. Mitchell, on the other hand, had 10 in the quarter as he continued his efficient scoring spree. The lead was only one by the end of the first stanza,  29-28. 

It was the second quarter that the three-point shooting barrage really took shape. At one point, the Hawks were 10-15 from deep, including threes from their centers Alex Len and Dewayne Dedmon. In fact, Young, the deep man marksman, was 0-for-3 from the three-line by halftime. Everyone else, however, was letting in rain. The Hawks used runs of 10-2  and 8-3 to finish the quarter strong and take a commanding 65-54 lead. Young had nine points and seven assists while Mitchell had 16. The Hawks were 12/22 from deep at that point. 

Within two minutes of the third quarter, the Jazz stormed back with a 9-0 run, fueled by two Mitchell dunks in that span. It was five straight stops on defense and then five straight scores on the offensive end, which was just the second-half start they needed to get back into the game.

And if there was any highlight worth remembering from this ballgame as Jazz fan, it was that third quarter. The Jazz quickly went on a 14-6 run, having made 7-10 shots in the first six minutes of the quarter. It then ballooned to 28-8 as Mitchell had 12 in the quarter and the Jazz went with him on a blazing run.

In that quarter, John Collins picked up his fourth foul that the Jazz certainly took advantage of. Collins wasn’t having a hand on the game as both Derrick Favors and Gobert limited the talented big fella to a 2-of-8 performance. However, on the season the Hawks are -8 with Collins off the floor and that number certainly proved true for the Jazz on Thursday night. It was 91-86 in favor of Utah going into the final frame. The Jazz were 37-7 on the season when leading at the end of three quarters, but the numbers didn’t side with the Jazz on this rodeo. 

Again, the threes started flowing for the Hawks as the never-aging Vince Carter, Kevin Huerter, and Young all made threes in succession to pin the lead to one, 99-98. Rubio then scored five straight points to give Utah a little more cushion, but the Hawks would eventually fly to a 16-4 run, including some nifty passes and buckets by Young. Down four with a minute left, Jae Crowder dribbled into the defense and turned the ball over, which ultimately lost the game before the Korver free throw situation in the closing ticks. It was an unfortunate night for Crowder who went 0-6 from the field, had four fouls, and was a -18 in his 25 minutes.

Rookie of the Year

As the season began, Luka Doncic was all the rage. He was hot, he was rolling, and he was a legit consideration for an All-Star berth as he put up triple-doubles or was hitting game-winners.  In the 2018 year, it looked like the Rookie of the Year award was a one-man race partly because Young started out so slowly.

Prior to the season’s intermission, Young was shooting 31% from deep despite being known as a sharpshooting threat. Doncic was average from deep, 34%, in the games leading up to the All-Star game. However, in 2019, and post-All-Star break specifically, Young has given Doncic a run for his money as his shooting percentages have increased.

In the 13 games since the break, Young is shooting 42% while Doncic has dropped dramatically to 27%. Their points and assists per game, post the break, are now quite even, too. Young: 25 ppg and eight apg while Doncic is 23 ppg and seven assists. Granted, Doncic is still the favorite to win it, but Young is making it interesting. Here are the per-36 averages based on the entire season. 

Per 36 Minutes Table
PlayerGMPFGFGAFG%3P3PA3P%2P2PA2P%TRBASTSTLTOVPFPTS
Luka Doncic6521057.818.2.4292.67.8.3365.210.4.4988.46.41.23.82.123.4
Trae Young7121817.317.6.4152.36.8.3355.010.8.4654.29.11.04.52.021.6
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/19/2019.

Recently, Young sat down with Alex Kennedy from HoopsHype for a one-on-one interview. Naturally, the conversation went towards the Rookie of the Year race. Young said:

“I want to be the best rookie in my class – this year and beyond. Of course I want to win it, and I still think there’s a chance. Luka has had a tremendous year. He’s played well all year and done a lot of tremendous things, and I’m really pulling for him because I want our rookie class to look good. But I think I’ve had a pretty good year as well. And with the way I’ve been playing lately, I think if I continue to play this way, there’s definitely a chance that I’ll win it. Both of our teams are sitting in 12th or 13th in our conference, so it’s not like making the playoffs or winning is going to be a [deciding] factor, but I obviously want to win games as well. We’ll see.” 
The race feels familiar to me as I think back to last year’s Ben Simmons-Donovan Mitchell duel. Mitchell started the season under the radar and with underwhelming stats, but really turned things on as the Jazz mounted their playoff push. Mitchell wanted to be considered in the race, while Simmons easily dismissed the argument. By the end of the season, the two were warring with words and wearing hoodies with definitions on them. As well, by the end of the season, the race wasn’t that close as Simmons easily won, which is what I think will happen with Doncic. At least this time around, the two players are cordial with each other and complimenting each others game.  They may also be dueling off the court, just in pre-game routines as The Ringer NBA pointed out: 
In that same interview with Kennedy and HoopsHype, Young was asked specifically about why he has improved over the last few months. His reply reminds me also of Mitchell and the adjustment young players make as they transition to the NBA game and NBA life.  Young said:
I think the game is starting to really slow down for me. Now, I’ve kind of seen a little bit of everything in terms of what teams are throwing at me and how defenses are trying to guard me. Also, I’ve seen most teams multiple times; in some cases, it’s my second or third time playing against a certain team. I know more about who I’m playing against too. I feel like I’m getting more used to the NBA game, the style, as well. I think I’m starting to feel more comfortable. I’m much more comfortable than I was during that first month, when I was shooting 19 percent from three. That was just… terrible. 
To be fair, I was extrememly skeptical about Young’s game in college translating to the NBA. He fizzled down the college stretch and his shooting was too inconsistent for me. I then watched him in summer league where his shot was off and his frame seemed to frail. Going into the season, there was no way he’d be considered one of the top rookies in my book, however, he has certainly proved me wrong as he looks like he belongs. He finished Thursday night’s game with 23 points and 11 assists. 

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