Comments on: Draft Projections and Accelerated Rebuild – Salt City Hoops Podcast http://saltcityhoops.com/draft-projections-and-accelerated-rebuild-salt-city-hoops-podcast/ The ESPN TrueHoop Utah Jazz Site Sun, 21 Sep 2014 05:21:29 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.0 By: Ben Dowsett http://saltcityhoops.com/draft-projections-and-accelerated-rebuild-salt-city-hoops-podcast/#comment-92889 Mon, 02 Jun 2014 23:44:56 +0000 http://saltcityhoops.com/?p=11735#comment-92889 Hm, he must have changed it. I know he was moving some things around in the last couple months, and is now travelling outside the country for most of the summer, so it’s possible he just didn’t reset everything. He also might be eschewing OBS altogether – it was only ever really used as a point of comparison, and Layne isn’t particularly worried about exactly how well his model stacks up to others or real draft order. And no worries, I can rap on this stuff all day.

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By: cw http://saltcityhoops.com/draft-projections-and-accelerated-rebuild-salt-city-hoops-podcast/#comment-92866 Mon, 02 Jun 2014 23:18:18 +0000 http://saltcityhoops.com/?p=11735#comment-92866 I get the spreadsheet things with the retro tab but no OBS column.

ps. Thanks for your help.

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By: Ben Dowsett http://saltcityhoops.com/draft-projections-and-accelerated-rebuild-salt-city-hoops-podcast/#comment-92731 Mon, 02 Jun 2014 20:46:37 +0000 http://saltcityhoops.com/?p=11735#comment-92731 The same link I posted yesterday should have a tab at the bottom titled “Retro”, which is his retrodictions. I believe the OBS column appears in those, showing a player’s NBA performance thus far.

I’m super high on Anderson, and while I like Adams I’m not quite as high on him as Layne’s models due to my own personal opinion that he doesn’t really have any single elite skill.

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By: cw http://saltcityhoops.com/draft-projections-and-accelerated-rebuild-salt-city-hoops-podcast/#comment-92704 Mon, 02 Jun 2014 20:12:22 +0000 http://saltcityhoops.com/?p=11735#comment-92704 Yeah, I was listening to a podcast where he said that. That is pretty good. Of course Cleveland and Minnisota totally skew the draft order towards dumbass, but still. He mentioned on twitter or somewhere that he had a retro model that had–I thought–the actual Win Production (or whatever it is) along with the EWP, but I can’t find that.

Anyway, he’s got the two UCLA guys really high, contrary to a lot of other people/ What do you think about that?

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By: Ben Dowsett http://saltcityhoops.com/draft-projections-and-accelerated-rebuild-salt-city-hoops-podcast/#comment-92682 Mon, 02 Jun 2014 19:30:24 +0000 http://saltcityhoops.com/?p=11735#comment-92682 Sorry had to respond to this message, won’t let me “Reply” to your most recent for some reason. I really can’t speak to those specific sets of numbers, though Layne does publicly post his data and if you’re familiar with R or another such computing software (Excel might even work for what you’re talking about), you could definitely do that sort of math yourself. One thing I can tell you (despite Layne’s absolute refusal to gloat about this or even really acknowledge it) is that when I first got in contact with him, I ran some quick correlations between his data and actual draft order since 83, with Layne’s own OBS (an overall player metric combining Win Shares and RAPM-Wins in the NBA) as the comparison point. Layne’s EWP and Humble models, over the course of the past 30 years, showed significantly higher predictive power to OBS than the actual draft order – in essence, though this isn’t really the appropriate way of stating such data, Layne’s models outperformed actual NBA GM’s over this time period.

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By: cw http://saltcityhoops.com/draft-projections-and-accelerated-rebuild-salt-city-hoops-podcast/#comment-92017 Mon, 02 Jun 2014 03:43:34 +0000 http://saltcityhoops.com/?p=11735#comment-92017 Thanks, I’ll look at that stuff. But before I do can you tell me how accurate are the projections, if you know that? Like, are the draft projection numbers within %50 of the 4 or 5 year numbers. 40%? 30% Know what I mean?

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By: Ben Dowsett http://saltcityhoops.com/draft-projections-and-accelerated-rebuild-salt-city-hoops-podcast/#comment-91700 Sun, 01 Jun 2014 21:04:38 +0000 http://saltcityhoops.com/?p=11735#comment-91700 Ah, thought you meant Pelton’s stuff. Layne’s base EWP model is calculated using data stretching back to 1983 and spanning across all sorts of variables – from basic box score stats to things like college strength of schedule and margin of victory, even variables for coaching and prospects’ combine measurements (those who attend). Using over 30 years of such variables across hundreds of college seasons and their subsequent cumulative results in the NBA, Layne runs a mixed-effects linear regression to determine predictive values for each of the variables included. From there, he can then plug these predictive values in for current prospects to generate his predictive model. From this base model, he expands to others, such as the Humble model (combines EWP with popular scouting consensus, from DraftExpress and ESPN’s Chad Ford), Comparisons model (closest comparable college seasons since 1983 using only the statistical variables included), and others.

If you want to go even further, I recommend the APBRmetrics boards, where Layne has done some major posting in the past. Here’s a thread he started in particular: http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8472

I highly recommend his work, and have also worked with him separately on a project for Beacon Reader, an independent pay-to-read site that connects authors directly with their reader bases. If you’re so inclined, feel free to check out my project page there as well: http://www.beaconreader.com/ben-dowsett

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By: cw http://saltcityhoops.com/draft-projections-and-accelerated-rebuild-salt-city-hoops-podcast/#comment-91663 Sun, 01 Jun 2014 20:28:42 +0000 http://saltcityhoops.com/?p=11735#comment-91663 Lane Vashro’s model was what I was asking about. I’m curious what goes into it and also how accurate it has proven to be. It sounds like he has used historical data, so has he compared his systems historical draft projections with the players historical PER or whatever 4 or 5 years later?

I have been curious about this lately (draft time) and am I am wondering if use comprehensive stats from games actually makes projection LESS accurate.

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By: Ben Dowsett http://saltcityhoops.com/draft-projections-and-accelerated-rebuild-salt-city-hoops-podcast/#comment-91624 Sun, 01 Jun 2014 19:47:32 +0000 http://saltcityhoops.com/?p=11735#comment-91624 You just did a great job summarizing what makes the concept of draft evaluation so difficult in the first place – there’s literally no system known to man that does as reliable a job as we likely desire. You’re correct, it’s simply impossible to forecast this number of players, particularly when such a high percentage still have so much developing left to do.

Do you have an ESPN Insider account? If so, I know Pelton’s detailed info is in there along with Ford’s and anyone else who does a model for them. I also advise checking out Layne Vashro’s model, which I mentioned in the piece, as well as Ian Levy’s Prospect Similarity Scores over at Hickory-High.com for another angle.

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By: cw http://saltcityhoops.com/draft-projections-and-accelerated-rebuild-salt-city-hoops-podcast/#comment-91553 Sun, 01 Jun 2014 18:24:25 +0000 http://saltcityhoops.com/?p=11735#comment-91553 Coincidentally, I was just looking at kevin Pelton’s WARP projections compared to actuality for the past 4 or 5 years and his accuracy rate was terrible. Which is not a knock on him because it seems to me almost impossible to predict anything based on a year (or two) of college statistics. They players are new to the craft, are no where close to peak physical development, all play on different teams with different coaches and differing roles, all will go to different teams with different coaches, roles, all will face the possibility of career altering injury.

Is there some place where the methodology is written down?

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