Shooting Woes Put Utah on Brink of Elimination

April 22nd, 2019 | by Steve Godfrey

Mitchell’s Jazz face elimination if they lose on Monday night. (Melissa Majchrzak via ESPN.com)

Game Four of the Jazz-Rockets series tips off tonight at Vivint SmartHome Arena. Can Utah extend the series or is tonight their 2018-19 finale? Here are some items to take note of before tipoff. 

Quotable

Regarding the question mentioned above, star Donovan Mitchell said:

“I don’t think anybody is going to just lay over Monday, I don’t think that is going to be the case. I don’t think that is what our organization is based on. … It is an uphill battle, but we are not going to lay over and give them a game.”

The GM Perspective

Daryl Morey, Houston’s general manager, went on Bill Simmons’ podcast over the weekend to talk about his team. The conversation naturally moved towards his All-World shooting guard, James Harden, and how far he has elevated his game following an MVP-season.  Yes, the Rockets changed personnel mid-season, moving on from summer acquisitions like Michael Carter-Williams and Carmelo Anthony while adding depth in Kenneth Faried, Austin Rivers, and Iman Shumpert. Yes, the Rockets were without Clint Capela and Chris Paul for extended time during the regular season due to injuries. And yes, they brought back their defensive coordinator early in the season which paved dividends down the road. However, the bottom line is that the reigning Most Valuable Player got better while in his prime which helped the Rockets break out from an early-season funk to a legit title contender. 

Morey was asked about all this, but the conversation always came back to The Beard. Specifically, Morey was asked if he had seen a player demand this much defensive attention or seen teams deploy funky defensive strategies based on one player in his career. Reflecting on Shane Battier and Ron Artest, two players who donned Rocket jerseys during the late 2000s, Morey said:

“Shane Battier and Ron Artest, who I think we’re two of the better wing defenders in NBA history, they would talk in mythical ways about Kobe Bryant and what he’s able to do and how impossible he is to stop. That’s sort how I feel people talk about James a little in terms of what he’s able to do and impossible he is to stop.”

It’s an excellent comparison, offensively speaking. Kobe was an assassin on the court with all the ways he could score, something Harden has developed with his step-back and three-point barrage of bombs. Teams must be at their best, but, as Sunday night showed, sometimes that isn’t enough. Teams must also game-plan in unique ways, as Utah has done, in the hopes of slowing down. If there is one counter to this comparison it would be that Harden has also killed the Jazz with his play-making and assists rather than his shooting and scoring (he is averaging 10 dimes a game on the series). 

Post game, Austin Rivers said: 

“We’re gonna live or die with James.We’ll never complain, whether he goes 10-for-10 or 0-for-30.You can’t be happy with him being Superman every day and the one day when he becomes human you start blaming him. He’s the biggest reason we are where we are. He came through when it mattered.” 

Quotable

Speaking of Harden, Jazz head coach Quin Snyder offered up this nugget after the disheartening game three loss. 

“Regardless of how you play during a game, you know at the end of the game, that’s James Harden.”

Utah’s Horrid Shooting Display

It’s no secret that the Jazz can’t win a game if they don’t score. It’s been a plague of the series, which means there are plenty of bullet points. 

  • For the entire series, the Jazz are shooting 17-176 (22.4%) on open shots and are 12-64 (18.8%) on open threes. As Spencer Wixom (@Spencer_Wixom on Twitter) noted, that’s pretty much the entire explanation of everything. Jazz have a 96.3 OffRtg for the series compared to 110.2 during season. 
  • Andy Larsen of the Salt Lake Tribune also broke down the wide-open shooting distribution. He found that the Jazz went 4-of-26 on wide-open jump shots Sunday night. A wide open shot has a definition in this statistical model as a shot with the defender more than six feet away. FOUR OF 26.
  • Larsen also makes the comment, “Imagine being Quin Snyder and you’ve finally gotten the team to play the defense well and Harden’s taking shots you want and you’ve installed some offensive wrinkles and they’re working and all you need is your team to shoot 20% on WIDE-OPEN shots to win and they hit 15%.”
  • Three point shooting- Game one: 7-27; game two: 8-38; game three: 12-41.  
  • Prior to Mitchell’s potential game-tying three, Tim MacMahon of ESPN tweeted that the Jazz were 27-105 on threes in the series. Of course, he immediately tweeted the update: 27-for-106 after Mitchell’s attempt missed short. 

Defensive pressure is one thing, but putting the ball in the hoop is a priority, too. It’s not as if the Rockets are forcing bad shots or forcing non-shooters to shoot. Instead, it’s that the Jazz are finding open looks and aren’t knocking them down. Shooting has been an Achilles heel throughout the season, so it’s fair to wonder if that the Jazz just aren’t composed of a team of threatening marksmen. Yes, they have Kyle Korver and Joe Ingles but they are spot on, off-the-pass shooters reliant on screens and movement to get free. Mitchell finished the season at 36%, but he does carry the reputation of a streaky shooter. Raul Neto and Jae Crowder, supposed shooters, are average at best, 33% each. Rubio? You already know the shooting story.

For those hoping the Jazz shooting simmers to the mean, the team shot 35% during the regular season which ranked 8th in the league. Of all playoff teams, the Jazz currently rank last at 25%. Certainly a few percentage points would  help. Game four could be the last chance to get a hot, knock down open looks, and get a win while doing so.

Quotable 

Mitchell, carrying a heavy offensive load, has been off despite a 1st quarter streak in game three. As usual, he is saying the right things and placing blame where it belongs. He isn’t one to shy away from the criticism and has owned up to his shortcomings and faults this series. After game three, he said:

“That’s my role, and I can’t miss that many shots. I’ve got to be able to hit those, and we’ve got to be able to capitalize.”

Additional Anecdotes

  • It’s slightly surprising that Jazz are getting out rebounded. They got 33% of available offensive rebounds against Houston in the regular season, but that number has dipped to 20% during this playoff series. If looking at total rebounds, the Jazz were out rebounded 51-48 in game one; won by four, 58-54, in game two; and then were down 65-57 in game three. They started Jae Crowder in game three, so they were smaller, but Gobert and Favors are still beasts and should, in theory, control the boards. Noteworthy, one of those rebounds that didn’t go the team’s way was when P. J. Tucker secured an offensive rebound in the closing seconds Sunday night that essentially sealed Utah’s fate. 
  • In game three the Jazz were much better at taking care of the ball. They only turned the ball over 14 times for 14 points. Houston, on the other hand, had 13 for 15 points.
  • Regarding Gobert and defense, coach Quin Snyder said, “This series and the Rockets put Rudy in some unfamiliar situations. There’s just not a lot of pick and roll. So he’s put in a situation where if he’s going to contest shots and protect the rim, often times he has to help up to do that and then your giving up stuff behind you. That’s where his teammates have to be there and we did a better job tonight and scrambling out of it.” Gobert’s post-game quote on defense said this, “The way we started the game tonight, we were tough. I don’t think they felt us in the first two games. We should play that way every night. I think that’s who we are, and we’ve got to play that way every night.” 

Tip-off for game four, a potential Jazz season finale, is set for 8:30 PM MT. 

 

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