100 Predictions for the 2022-23 NBA Season

Could Conley (left) be on the move? That and 99 other Jazz and NBA projections from Riley Gisseman. (Trent Nelson, Salt Lake Tribune)

Ah, it’s wonderful to see: NBA basketball made its regular season return with a pair of heavyweight games on Tuesday night showcasing the revamped rosters of the 2022 NBA Finalists, the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors.

For Jazz fans, the U-turn from a consistent core of players and unfulfilled expectations to a roster that features just two major playoff pieces from the year before may be a welcome one. It is near impossible to have a season of disappointment when given one with virtually no expectations. So be free, Jazz fans! Enjoy the unexpected and try to see the remarkable talent and excitement from the rest of the NBA! While it may not be our familiar Jazz faces, we can be excited to watch without expectations for a season or two. Or rather, have the expectations be focused on players’ development rather than the bottom-line of win, win, win.

To supplant the previously lofty expectations for the Jazz, let’s throw a few boundaries on what we’d like to see this season. I’ve outlined 100 predictions for the NBA season below. I have the prediction grouped into three categories: Jazz predictions, tangentially related forecasts such as items touching previous Jazz players, to guesses on how storylines will play out around the NBA.

Not all of these predictions are, um, positive for Jazz players. That said, the overwhelming majority could be set for the players as goals to reach. I’ve noted what I believe to be the probability of each prediction with a tag of Very Likely, Confident, Bold, and Very Bold. Ideally, to test my predictive skills, the groupings of those outcomes will end up at 80%, 60%, 40%, and 20% true, since the variance in how likely I expect these predictions to go through is high.

2022-23 Jazz Predictions:

1. Very Bold: Collin Sexton starts fewer than 4.5 games before December 1st
2. Very Bold: Simone Fontecchio shoots over 40% from three
3. Very Bold: Udoka Azubuike starts over 15 games
4. Very Bold: Markkanen/Vanderbilt/Olynyk/Kessler over 250 MP together
5. Very Bold: More wins against .500+ opponents than vs. below-.500 teams

Only a select few teams conquered the hill of being so good at tanking that you actually win more games against “good” teams than “bad” ones in 2021-22. Portland, Detroit, Washington, Orlando, and New York were the five lottery teams that performed worse against the lower-level talent. I think it’s a possibility for the Jazz, in a season with 20 teams expected to be competing for a positive record and just 10 likely to fall outside that category, to have a talented enough roster to beat the good teams, but be strategic enough in resting plans to lose to the bad ones.

6. Bold: Jordan Clarkson traded
7. Bold: Over 1.5 draft picks traded
8. Bold: Rudy Gay included in trade for Expiring Contract
9. Bold: Malik Beasley gets over 4.5 All-Defense votes

Beasley made a bold statement prior to the season when asked why he expected 2022-23 to be a big season: “Because I’m going to be an All-Star,” the guard said. I struggle to see the pathway for a player like Beasley to becoming an All-Star, as nearly every guard who’s made the game plays a heavy amount of possessions on-ball for their teams, but I like the confidence. I think with the All-Star game as a motivator, Beasley can step up defensively to push making an All-Defensive team. He’s been solid on that end in the past, but his primary upside to becoming  an All-Star lies less with his spot-up skillset and more with out-hustling competitors, which he can do consistently on the defensive end.

10. Bold: Ochai Agbaji averages over 14.5 ppg over the final 20 games
11. Bold: Jarred Vanderbilt plays over 80.5 games
12. Bold: Walker Kessler posts an DRtg under 111.5
13. Bold: Beasley shoots over 38.5% from outside
14. Bold: Sexton shoots more than 15 FGA/gm
15. Bold: Leandro Bolmaro over 2.5 apg

16. Confident: pre-lottery draft position is over 4.5

The Jazz players and front office have been adamant that they’d like to win this season, and while I don’t see them winning a lot, I don’t see anyone outright tanking. The team will rest a number of players strategically, and are likely to move the players that would help them win more games than they’d like, but the difference between finishing 6th and 1st really doesn’t help lottery odds much and there’s going to be a lot of teams competing for those top 4 spots.

17. Confident: Mike Conley traded
18. Confident: Clarkson/Markkanen/Sexton between 15 and 20 ppg each
19. Confident: ORtg rank under 15.5
20. Confident: DRtg rank over 25.5
21. Confident: Conley leads Jazz in on/off plus-minus

Prior to Conley’s trade, should one be made, Mike will be the Jazz’ primary ballhandler. While Sexton can control the ball similarly, Conley is the one and only facilitator on the Jazz roster; and with a number of off-ball options, I can see the Jazz out-playing opponents while he’s on the court.

22. Confident: Over 1.5 midseason trades

23. Very Likely: Kelly Olynyk over 10.5 ppg
24. Very Likely: Kessler starts over 35 games
25. Very Likely: Better win percentage in games decided by 3 points or less than last season ( Percentage in 3-Point Games Than 2021-22 (.143)

Tangentially Jazz-Related 2022-23 Predictions:

26. Very Likely: Headline: Donovan Mitchell booed in Utah return

I wish this wouldn’t happen, but I cant help but to expect that a few of the louder Jazz fans will have their way when Mitchell is introduced on January 10 in Utah. Mitchell deserves nothing but respect and I’m sure the fan reaction will be split, but headlines like this gravitate towards the negative.

27. Bold: Mitchell scores on Rudy Gobert with > 20K retweets

I think Mitchell and Gobert will have a very entertaining back-and-forth when the Cavaliers and Timberwolves meet for the first time on November 13. I’m predicting a Gobert block, a Mitchell highlight, and the two to be happy to dap each other up after the game. This isn’t to say it’ll be all buddy-buddy, though, since I expect Mitchell to allude to Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen being better defenders than Gobert at some point in the season.

28. Bold: Timberwolves over 2.5 All-Stars
29. Bold: Raptors acquire at least one eventual playoff starter at the trade deadline
30. Bold: Timberwolves finish top 3 in DRtg
31. Bold: Pistons forward Bojan Bogdanovic shoots under 36.5% from three
32. Bold: Nets wing Royce O’Neale leads Brooklyn’s non All-Stars in on/off plus-minus
33. Bold: Cavaliers’ Mitchell averages over 27.5 ppg
34. Bold: Cavaliers’ Mitchell has over 45 point in a playoff game

Mitchell has had a 45+ point playoff game in four of his 39 total appearances, and more importantly three times in his last three postseasons. I bet this trend continues when Cleveland needs someone more experienced to take over in May, and Mitchell’s been that guy for years.

35. Bold: Cavaliers make it to the second round of the playoffs
36. Bold: Mitchell and Gobert connect for an alley-oop in the All-Star Game
37. Confident: Cavaliers playoff seed over 4.5
38. Confident: Timberwolves playoff seed under 4.5
39. Confident: Timberwolves lose in the first round of the playoffs

I’m stuck here – I think Minnesota has more regular season success than Cleveland. I also worry that the high-end talent in the West and huge amount of experience from each of the best teams gets Minnesota booted before their first playoff series win since 2004. Cleveland, meanwhile, I see a potential path to the second round and possibly beyond in a 2021-Hawks-esque run. I’d be thrilled to see either Gobert or Mitchell in their first conference finals, but that remains to be seen.

40. Confident: Cavaliers get under 2.5 All-Stars
41. Confident: Cavaliers Mitchell refers to Allen/Mobley as better than Gobert
42. Very Likely: Victor Wembanyama goes first overall in next June’s draft
43. Very Likely: Scoot Henderson goes second overall
44. Very Likely: Suns forward Jae Crowder traded

Crowder’s been extremely vocal about his desire to be traded and that he will not be playing another game for Phoenix, so this is an easy bet to make. Don’t be surprised if the Jazz get in on it to allow a third team to improve by only sacrificing a draft pick and some salary.

45. Very Likely: Gobert Blocks Mitchell
46. Very Likely: Mitchell and Gobert Dap After Game

2023 NBA Predictions

47. Very Bold: Celtics – Ime Udoka dismissed as Celtics head coach
48. Very Bold: Grizzlies earn the top seed in the West
49. Very Bold: Celtics score another NBA Finals appearance
50. Very Bold: 76ers guard James Harden is on a new team in 2023

I’m not totally sold on Harden’s appearance of being committed to the 76ers. If Philadelphia disappoints in the playoffs again, I’d expect Harden to opt out of his player option to go somewhere he believes he can actually compete in the Finals.

51. Very Bold: Pelicans wing Herb Jones finishes top three in DPOY voting
52. Very Bold: Lakers sign Quin Snyder to a 5-year deal
53. Very Bold: Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo posts an on/off over +15
54. Very Bold: Warriors repeat as NBA Champions
55. Very Bold: Raptors coach Nick Nurse finishes top two in COY voting
56. Very Bold: Grizzlies guard Ja Morant wins NBA MVP

Morant’s had an explosive career so far (both on the court and in how quickly he’s grown as a player), and I expect that to continue. If Memphis pulls off another better-than-expected record with Jackson missing a heavy chunk of their early schedule, I expect Morant could run away with the league’s MVP award.

57. Bold: Lakers land Kyrie Irving
58. Bold: Rockets guard Jalen Green becomes an All-Star
59. Bold: Rockets win at least one play-in game

Just wanted to say here that Jalen Green is a monster and the Rockets just got Kevin Porter Jr. on one of the best contracts I’ve seen in the NBA.

60. Bold: Raptors playoff seed under 4.5
61. Bold: Pelicans big man Zion Williamson makes first or second team All-NBA
62. Bold: Suns playoff seed over 4.5

Not only did the Suns get run off the court in their own stadium in game 7 against the Mavericks, not only did they find an angsty Deandre Ayton throughout his restricted free agency, not only is team owner Robert Sarver being forced to sell the team, but now they’ve got a Jae Crowder sized hole in the roster and Chris Paul is entering age 38. Consider me worried for Phoenix that they’re shadowing the Jazz from a year ago.

63. Bold: Thunder win over 29.5 games
64. Bold: Spurs sign Quin Snyder to a 5-year deal
65. Bold: Warriors All-Star Draymond Green is on a new team in 2023
66. Bold: Pelicans wing Herb Jones makes first team All-Defense
67. Bold: Thunder draftee Chet Holmgren 2023-24 Rookie of the Year favorite

This is a fun one that won’t be solved until opening day next season. I think moving into the 2024 season, despite the three-headed monster at the top of the 2023 draft class, Chet Holmgren will continue to pick up a bunch of hype. He’ll have a much improved Josh Giddey to feed him the ball and I expect him to have a strong Summer League (if he participates), and pre-season. Regardless of the result, I’m thrilled to see the chase for 2024’s Rookie of the Year trophy.

68. Bold: Trail Blazers draftee Shaedon Sharpe finishes top 5 in Rookie of the Year voting
69. Bold: Kings’ Mike Brown gets over 9.5 Coach of the Year votes
70. Bold: Lakers add LaMarcus Aldridge to their roster
71. Bold: Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard requests a trade
72. Bold: Wizards’ Kristaps Porzingis averages under 20 ppg
73. Bold: 76ers make an Eastern Conference Finals appearance
74. Confident: Hornets lottery position under 5.5

A year ago, Charlotte surprised their way into 43 wins and a play-in appearance. This year, I’m less bullish on the cast around an already injured Lamelo Bell. Miles Bridges and James Bouknight are each off to fight a court case, P.J. Washington went un-extended, and on top of Gordon Hayward’s turning 33 in the Spring, his confidence has got to be at an all-time low with how heavily he was roasted over his new haircut. I’d say I’m joking but… it’s really that bad.

75. Confident: Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards makes All-NBA
76. Confident: Laker veteran Russell Westbrook gets traded and/or waived
77. Confident: Lakers miss playoffs
78. Confident: Pacers center Myles Turner traded
79. Confident: Spurs’ Keldon Johnson finishes top 5 in Most Improved Player voting
80. Confident: Clippers playoff seed over 4.5

The Clippers are on the front end of a mountain of hype, but I’m not so sure. I don’t think we’ll see LA with home court advantage in the first round, as they don’t have a true Center behind Ivica Zubac who had an underwhelming 2022 season. Nic Batum is turning 34 and he’s just 6’8″ and he’s going to play backup center? Bold move.

81. Confident: Warriors guard Jordan Poole wins Sixth Man of the Year
82. Confident: Thunder guard Josh Giddey averages more than 6.5 APG
83. Confident: Nets playoff seed over 4.5
84. Confident: Nets’ Kyrie Irving requests trade
85. Confident: Pistons lottery position under 4.5
86. Confident: Mavericks appear in the play-in

Dallas is another team giving me the yips. Losing Jalen Brunson is a bigger deal to them than we’re letting on, and despite as much hype as Luka Doncic has been receiving I’m not sure I’m sold that he’s improved much since his second season. This is year five and he’s been named a pre-season favorite for the MVP award in multiple seasons yet never finished in the top 3.

87. Confident: Nets star Kevin Durant under 70.5 games played
88. Confident: Clippers big man Ivica Zubac starts under 4.5 playoff games
89. Confident: Kings’ Keegan Murray finishes top 3 in Rookie of the Year voting
90. Confident: Heat rookie Nikola Jovic averages over 7.5 Playoff PPG
91. Confident: Nuggets Nikola Jokic MVP finish over 3.5
92. Confident: Hawks acquire at least one playoff starter at the trade deadline

I have this as a prediction for both Atlanta and Toronto, but the former I’m more confident in. Atlanta has the pieces to fill a roster hole they’ve had for years, and I’m not sure Hunter or any of the other competitors fill it as well as a number of guys they could get on the trade market. They’ve been rumored to be interested in Crowder, and if they landed him I’d hope to see him starting alongside Trae, Dejounte, and company.

93. Confident: Bucks forward Joe Ingles starts over 3.5 playoff games
94. Confident: Mavericks’ Luka Doncic MVP finish over 3.5
95. Confident: Bulls in the play-in
96. Confident: Knicks miss playoffs
97. Confident: Magic rookie Paolo Banchero finishes top 2 in Rookie of the Year
98. Confident: Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander receives over 14.5 All-NBA votes
99. Very Likely: Warriors’ Stephen Curry finishes top 5 for MVP
100. Very Likely: Spurs coach Gregg Popovich announces retirement

Pop’s on the last year of his 2019 contract extension, and we haven’t heard a thing about him looking to sing another to date. He already passed the Team USA gig to Steve Kerr and I think it’s likely this is his final go in the NBA, potentially handing the reigns to former G-League associate head coach… Quin Snyder.