Jazz fans should be giddy at the prospect of the upcoming NBA season, which may well provide the most pure fun the fanbase has had in a long, long time.
To be clear: I am not saying this team will be better or win more this upcoming year than last season. Gordon Hayward’s awkward and destructively inept departure for Boston made such prospects slim – though not impossible. But while the team may not quite reach 51 wins, expect a respectable win total and a return to the playoffs… only this time done with some sexy!
The Jazz Will Play with Pace. No, Really!
When Quin Snyder took the reins to the team in in the summer of 2014, he announced – and frequently repeated – his intention to play with pace. In the three years since, the Jazz have played at the slowest pace in the league each season. The discrepancy between that original declaration of intent and what played out on the court has caused Snyder to quibble about the meaning of pace, defending the intent of Utah’s deliberate plodding and pointing out – rightly – that using speed opportunistically has been part of the team’s tactical approach even when it hasn’t approached anything near a full strategy.
But as has frequently been reported in Utah and national media of late, this newest iteration of the Jazz will face its greatest challenge putting points on the board. No longer will it make sense to run Snyder’s motion offense deep into the shot clock as frequently as in the past – if it made sense then. The personnel simply won’t be able to generate enough efficient points in such situations.
What current Jazz players can do is get up the floor. Fast.
Available minutes at the wing and guard positions1 mean Utah will not only invite but need increased scoring from Dante Exum. While the young Australian invites numerous questions as a player, foot speed isn’t one. Over 15 percent of possessions used by Exum last year came in transition2. That percentage tops by far any regular Jazz contributor last season, and as Exum rounded into shape toward the end of the season it was marked by plays like this:
With more minutes, greater confidence, and a serious need to prove himself, expect for Exum to put the team’s pedal to the metal this year.
If he’s actually anything approaching healthy, Alec Burks might even beat Exum down the floor. In his 653 minutes of play last season, Burks used a hair more of his possessions in transition (15.3 percent) than did Exum. Yes, it’s easy to scoff, but some of us brave souls dare to dream because we remember:
Joe Ingles and Rodney Hood project as starters, and each used more of his possessions in the fast break than any of Utah’s free agent defectors. And then there is Rudy Gobert, whose defensive super-awesomeness overshadowed that he ranked in the 99.1(!!!) percentile for per-possession efficiency on transition plays among all NBA players last season. Gobert is the best center in the league not only because he locks down the paint but because he’s a sprinting, snorting, full-on stampede of a giraffe-man on the break:
To this mix add the six-foot-three cylinder of nos octane booster known as Donovan Mitchell, who for the record bested both the combine sprint and max vertical marks of physical freaks such as Derrick Rose3, Dwyane Wade, and reigning league MVP Russell Westbrook. Yeah, the guy does stuff like this:
While it would be a bit much to expect Utah to play at the Warrior’s pace, the Jazz will have both the incentive and the gears to GO! And GO! they will.
Rubio’s Pass-magic Will Find the Perfect Home
Legend has it Ricky Rubio developed his passing skills as a fourteen-year-old prodigy in Spain, but that’s really just a cover for the real origins of his mystical ability – Hogwarts. It only makes sense given his ability to break out Distributus Impossiblinity when needed. Imagine Utah’s open court horses feeding on passes like this:
Last season Rubio notched 9.1 assists per game. To put that number in perspective, not only did George Hill and some guy heavily scented of hair gel combine for only 7.7 assists last year, but in Jazz history a player has topped a season assist average of nine just 16 times: John “Please Don’t Call Me God” Stockton did it ten times, Deron “Now Aren’t You Glad I Threw That Ball” Williams totaled five, and Rickey “I Really Made This List!” Green managed one.
Dennis Lindsey has gone on record with his belief Rubio may compete for the highest assist total in the league next season, and no fan base could appreciate that as much as Jazz fans.
Utah’s Defense Will be Offensively Awesome
Ever since Gobert entered the starting lineup, the Jazz have smothered opponents. This year they’ll eat their faces off.
An already toothy defense gained new fangs this off-season, adding perennial lockdown wing Thabo Sefolosha and replacing Trey Lyles’ leaky D with that of a more dependable Jonas Jerebko. With an offense in need of open court opportunities, expect the Jazz defense to turn predatory.
Gobert will naturally lead the way. I truly believe he can’t stomach allowing an uncontested shot, even one from full court a full two seconds after the horn has stopped play. Open shots offend him.
Now surround the Stifle Tower with a gang of thieves – Rubio was ninth in the league in steals last season, Sefolosha 16th, and Ingles 42nd – and every time down the floor teams will struggle to keep the ball. When they do get a shot, Gobert’s length inside and that of any number of perimeter defenders4 should funnel attempts to players Utah wants shooting, and in areas where they invite shots5.
If Derrick Favors returns to form, the scenario becomes truly terrifying. As a staunch Favors fan, may I humbly remind that entering last season the Georgia product was widely considered a top-40 player and an uncommonly adaptable defensive force. Favors has posted a steal percentage of 1.8 or greater four of the last five years6 and has a career block percentage of 4.1, numbers only bettered last season by blossoming superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. If Favors manages to drop some weight to re-invigorate his legs and stave off injury – his declared intention – he gives the Jazz a defender who could provide top 20 production in both steals and blocks.
Take these factors together and the team’s recently impenetrable defense should add substantially more big defensive plays, which will make watching the less glamorous side of the ball, well, glamorous.
In total, Jazz fans should enter next season on the edge of their seats, be those in the revamped Viv or at home via television or – finally! – a new online streaming option. Utah has speed, athleticism, and length. That physicality will be fueled by an attacking, entertaining defense and brilliant passing of a quality the franchise is known for but that has been absent for a decade. And with Gobert the team’s unquestioned leader and facing sudden national skepticism about the team’s competitive prospects, expect a team with a sizable chip on its shoulder.
While the wins from last season may be a challenge to match, the fun quotient this year should zoom easily by any recent year in Jazz memory.
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