Conley Encore? Why Adding Another Star is Possible, But Complicated

Can Utah make a run at another top free agent even after agreeing to acquire Mike Conley? Yes. Should they? Depends. Will they? Likely not.

Even after Wednesday’s unofficial announcement that Mike Conley will join the Jazz via a summer blockbuster trade, Jazz fans weren’t done dreaming. Far and away, the most frequent question in the wake of the trade news was some variation of this: can the Jazz acquire another star-level player and still have the agreed Conley deal go through as negotiated. 

In the immediate aftermath of the trade, I wrote that the mechanics of this trade probably means that the Jazz have already made their big move for the summer and now they’ll focus on filling in the roster. That’s likely still the best short answer.

But let’s get creative, or specific… or creatively specific, or specifically creative. There are avenues for the Jazz to make the Conley trade and still add a significant piece. It’s just that they all come with pretty significant logistical catches, and with serious costs in terms of Utah’s depth. But for the sake of completeness, let’s explore them here. 

First, let’s set the terms of this conversation with some assumptions going in. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert aren’t going anywhere. For the sake of argument, I’m also going to operate on the assumption that Joe Ingles is in the Jazz locker room this October, as his value to his current club probably exceeds his market value.

That leaves just Derrick Favors and Dante Exum to play with, and my sense is that the Jazz would only part ways with those two if something came up that was too good to pass up. Then there’s Tony Bradley and three non-guaranteed players whose salary doesn’t count in trades until they’re past their guarantee date. Georges Niang and Royce O’Neale are no-brainers to keep anyway, because they’re both steals whose salaries are only $700K or so more than a minimum roster hold. Neto ($2.15M, non-guaranteed until 7/9) is a bit more costly and therefore could be included in a deal — or waived from his salary and signed back later at the minimum.

I’m also assuming a $109 million cap.

OK, that sets the stage. Now let’s get weird. Here are legal scenarios where Utah could add Conley AND somebody else, along with each scenario’s unique complications and why it might be a good or bad idea.

Option 1: Make the planned Conley deal, then clear space for a second-tier free agent

The specifics: After the Jazz make the Conley trade that was reported on Wednesday, they’ll be essentially capped out. Two minimum roster charges will bring their team salary right back to the cap.

However, they have flexibility because of the late guarantee date on Favors’ contract, and if needed they could certainly find a taker for Exum, especially after some teams miss out on their preferred free agent targets. Whatever salary the Jazz clear after the trade is salary they’ll have to spend on the open market, less an empty roster charge for each additional spot they open up.

The resulting $: If the Jazz waive Favors, they’ll have just over $16M to spend. If they waive him and trade Exum into somebody’s space, about $25M. If they do both of those things and also cut Neto, just over $25M.

The catch: None of those scenarios opens up a max slot, even for the lowest category of max player. Trading Bradley into space would get them really close to the 0-6 year max, but would also likely cost them an asset. 

Players they could theoretically target: The high teens to mid 20s range is where you can probably land a Bojan Bogdanovic or Harrison Barnes type. And somebody like Julius Randle or Nikola Mirotic should come cheaper than those two. They could also keep Favors and just trade Exum into space, which would open them up to essentially join the MLE market (they’d essentially have $8M and change) for guys like Al-Farouq Aminu or DeMarre Carroll.

Pros/Cons: This does give Utah the opportunity to add a starting caliber shooting forward. But without being able to get to the max range, you’re talking about guys who aren’t necessarily even an upgrade from Favors in a vacuum. Utah’s main objective after agreeing on Conley should be to add depth back, and sending Favors and Exum out in a deal for what essentially could amount to a lateral move take their depth in the opposite direction.

Option 2: Make the planned Conley deal, then add a free agent using Sign-and-Trade rules

The specifics: Once a team is back at the cap, they can continue to make trades as long as they roughly match incoming salary with outgoing players. So if the Jazz  if the Jazz did the Conley deal on July 6, they could then turn around and use players — again, we’re probably mostly talking about Favors and Exum here, although Bradley could be used as salary filler — to bring back more salary.

The resulting $: It depends on who they trade:

• They can trade Favors (after July 7) and bring back $22.65M
• They can trade Exum and bring back $14.6M
• They can trade Favors + Exum together and bring back just over $34M — a max slot for a 0-9 year veteran!
• Favors + Bradley $24.5
• Exum + Bradley $16.5M
• All three $36.6M

Players they could theoretically target: It depends on which scenario above they use, but in theory they could target even a max player this way, like Tobias Harris or Khris Middleton (but not a max player with 10+ years experience like Al Horford).

The catch: The team currently holding the player’s rights would have to want Utah’s assets (Favors + Exum) back in the trade. So you need the player to say yes AND the incumbent team to be inclined and motivated to facilitate the deal. That’s rarer; only three NBA players signed their current deals as a sign-and-trade transaction — and only one player making anywhere close to the max (Danilo Gallinari).

Update- Another complication pointed out by the indefatigable Andy Larsen makes this route even tougher. When you give a player a big raise just to trade him in a S&T, that limits how much salary you can bring back. Normally with larger salary players, there’s enough wiggle room to work it out. But for example, it presents a significant complication for someone like Harris, whose 2018-19 salary was low enough that Philly couldn’t acquire both Favors and Exum in such a deal. A third team would need to be involved, either to take one of Fav/Exum for basically free, or to take a 7-figure salary from Philly so that they could afford to add both Jazz guys. It’s not impossible, but now you have to get four parties (three teams and Harris’ camp) on the same page. It makes it that much more unlikely. The same complication would apply to Middleton or anybody else who’s getting a big raise from a salary of less than $22M or so  

Pros/Cons: If the right player calls the Jazz on July 1 and says, “Hey, I want to come, make it happen!” then it’s worth exploring. But once again, this avenue costs the Jazz their depth and only works with other teams’ cooperation.

Option 3: Make the planned Conley deal, then use those same over-the-cap rules to acquire a player under contract

The specifics: Same basic scenario as above, only this time you’re adding a player who is already under contract, so it’s more straightforward.

The resulting $: Same as the scenario above: from the teens all the way up to the 0-9 year max, depending on who they trade.

Players they could theoretically target: It’s hard to know which guys under contract are actually available. Gallinari costs $22.6M, but I have insisted all summer long that he’s not a fit. Kevin Love costs $29M, but he’s aging, coming off 60 missed games, and is owed $120M total over the next four. Then there are guys like Gorgui Dieng and James Johnson who probably aren’t worth it as they wouldn’t replace Favors’ production and impact.

The catch: The other team in the trade would have to be OK with Utah’s desired sequencing, since this hypothetical deal would have to come after the Conley swap, and potentially also after Favors’ guarantee date.

Pros/Cons: This one lacks the complications that come with a sign-and-trade, but I just don’t see any realistic deals that feel like sure upgrades.

Option 4: Sign a max player first, THEN add a third team to expand the Conley deal

The specifics: The current framework of the Conley deal is an under-the-cap trade from Utah’s perspective, but that shouldn’t matter to Memphis as long as they get the agreed-upon stuff. If Utah changed the way deals are sequenced on July 6 when the moratorium ends, they can add a marquee free agent AND Conley — but it will cost them Favors and Exum. Here’s how it would work:

The Jazz would have to rescind their free agents (they’re rescinding them anyway) and also waive Favors and Neto to create a $32.7M salary slot, which is the max for 0-9 year vets. After they sign a guy, then they just need to find a team that wants to get in on the Memphis trade and take Exum for free. Exum’s inclusion would allow Utah to complete the Conley trade as an over-the-cap deal, without altering the pieces they’ve already negotiated as going to Memphis. 

The resulting $: $32.7M

Players they could theoretically target: Anyone up to and including the Harris/Middleton class of max free agents with nine or fewer years of experience.

The catch: The potential deal-breaker here is that Memphis would have to be willing to take Korver fully guaranteed in order for his whole salary to count for the Jazz. They might view this as a material difference to the trade terms they agreed to, since otherwise they could acquire and waive Korver and only pay less than half of his salary. The other (minor) catch is that Memphis and the team acquiring Exum would have to “touch” each other somehow in the trade. That’s an easy solve: just include a top-55 protected pick or draft rights to some dude who’s unlikely to come to the NBA.

Pros/Cons: Along with the similar depth concerns of losing both Favors and Exum for a single player, this one has the added complication of only working if Memphis will play along. That said, there are probably players on the market for whom the Jazz would deal with those headaches.

All of those scenarios would cost Utah some much needed depth, and all have stipulations that might prove insurmountable. For example, the sign-and-trade for Harris sounds great, unless Philly doesn’t want Favors and Exum. Then Utah could explore putting Exum in the Memphis deal and completing that trade over the cap, but if Memphis refuses to guarantee Korver’s $7.5M, then that one is dead on arrival as well.

That is why I still think the most likely scenario is the (and I say this 83% in jest) “boring” one.

Unless a difference-maker that Utah positively loves picks up the phone on July 1 and says, “Come and get me,” I think the default scenario that is most likely to come to fruition is this one:

Option 5: Make the Conley deal, keep Favors and Exum, improve the roster around the edges

The specifics: The punditry already views the Jazz as a title contender after landing Conley, so do they even need to take the risk of pushing for another acquisition at the expense of rotation-caliber talent? Utah could decide that having quality in players in rotation spots six through nine is more important than a nominal upgrade (or, frankly, a lateral move) on their fourth best player. Like, is Barnes better than Favors to the degree that it makes sense to decimate the bench? Is he better at all? That’s debatable.

Now, would they do it for Harris, for Middleton, or other guys in that tier? Maybe, yeah. But barring one of those guys being available, I think Utah will ride into October with Favors and Exum complementing their new core, and in the meantime use smaller exceptions to target good-fit, affordable rotation guys. 

The resulting $: The $4.76M Room MLE and minimum salary slots.

Players they could theoretically target: Utility players to fill out the back of the rotation.

The catch: None, other than just the tough work of finding rotation-caliber contributors at $1M to $5M. This is the least “catchy” of all scenarios because they already have the Conley framework in place.

Pros/Cons: The reality is that Favors is a very good player; it’s probably fair to call him Utah’s third best player from 2018-19¹ and he’s better than most players the Jazz could realistically bring in through the cap gymnastics described in options 1 through 4. Sure, more stars always sounds like a fun idea, but Gobert-Mitchell-Conley is a title-worthy core with the right complementary pieces in place and with continued growth from Mitchell. Unless the perfect target is there for the taking, there’s a real argument to be made for not overthinking this.