Salt City Seven: Gobert’s Expanding Game, Niang at Forward, Zone Wrinkle & More

Gobert has been a more reliable and diverse finisher this season. (Fernando Medina via espn.com)

Every week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

An important quote from Jazz players or personnel from the week

“I want to keep getting better and better. I never want to stagnate. So, I have to work on my game, I have to get better and I have to stay hungry.”

-Rudy Gobert, via The Athletic’s Tony Jones

Rudy Gobert is, um, not stagnating.

This might be the Jazz center’s best season as an all-around threat. He scored a tiny bit more last season, but this season, defenses are preoccupied with keeping him away from the rim. It’s a top priority of nearly every scheme the Jazz face. And yet Gobert has still been able to roughly equal last season’s career-best offensive output, while grabbing the best rebound percentage of his career.

In this two-season peak, the Stifle Tower is averaging 17.1 points and 14.6 rebounds for every 36 minutes played, and nobody in the league with 500 or more attempts since the start of the 2018-19 campaign has a better effective field goal percentage than his .670.

But we’re not here to talk about his numbers. We’re here to talk about his expanding repertoire, including with moves like this.

This wasn’t even the first time that Gobert had slipped the soft hedge Chicago was running. He already had a couple of dunks from making the same read on that play. That’s why the Bulls sent help this time: Kris Dunn comes in from the corner to stunt his drive. It didn’t matter. Gobert euro-stepped away from the help, then with his momentum pointed baseline, reached back with that massive 7-foot-9 wingspan to finish the play.

Madre mía.

Moves like this aren’t even that uncommon for Rudy this season. Per tracking stats at NBA.com, Gobert is now 22-for-28 (79%) for the season on attempts that follow a single dribble. He shot 49% on the same shots last season.

That dunk in Chicago came at the end of a surprising finesse play, but some of his one-dribble moves give him the chance to gather strong and use his body for a power finish.

Rudy rocking rims 🤫 pic.twitter.com/D13qlRNc6e

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) January 5, 2020

That Gobert can finish in a greater variety of circumstances is a really big deal. Defenses now have to account for him farther away from the rim in order to stop him, and that benefits everybody else on the floor with him.

It’s no surprise, then, that playing with Gobert makes other Jazz players better. As we discussed in last week’s “Numbers” section, the Jazz players’ rank order in Net Rating¹ exactly matches the order of most to least minutes played alongside the fearsome Frenchman.

That’s not all because of this offensive expansion, but it helps that Gobert is now capable of catching further out in pick-and-roll actions and carving out his own finish. And, impressively, he has been able to perpetrate this offensive expansion and experimentation while maintaining his overall shooting efficiency. His eFG% this season is actually better than last season’s league-leading figure, and the only reason his scoring is ever-so-slightly down is because he is getting the ball slightly less often.

That’s changing, too. In the last 15 games, Gobert has attempted 9.6 shots per game — up from last year’s 8.8 — on his way to 16.4 & 14.8 averages on 70.8% shooting. So he’s already a more diverse scorer than he was in the not-too-distant past, and he’s getting better at it in front of our eyes.

A lot of players drop quotes like, “I have to work on my game,” or, “I have to get better.” Some of them even mean it. But the scouting report on Gobert as an offensive finisher is being rewritten in realtime. The dude is putting in work.

Stats that tell the story of the week or highlight a timely topic

-14.2 to +11.8

When the Jazz decided to move on from Jeff Green right before Christmas, one of the reasons cited was the opportunity to find Georges Niang more minutes. A more accurate and meaningful version of that justification would be: cutting Green meant they could get Niang more minutes at his natural power forward position. Niang was pigeon-holed into win minutes when Green was on the roster, and it did not go well for the Iowa State product. Through December 23, Green’s last day with the Jazz, Niang had a team-worst -14.2 Net Rating. Forcing Niang into wing minutes was one of the weirder decisions that the coaching staff made — and stuck with — during a pretty disastrous two-month stretch for Utah’s second unit.

Now that Niang is back in the stretch four role where he belongs, his Net Rating since Christmas has jumped all the way to +11.8. His True Shooting has jumped from 60% to an otherworldly 74%. He’s shooting 54.5% from three over that stretch.

That’s more like it. 

1.4

This one came courtesy of Ben Dowsett’s Friday tweet, so it doesn’t include Saturday’s game in Orlando… but the Jazz are getting some crazy efficient play when they let Bojan Bogdanovic take advantage of mismatches in the post. Post play is mostly a relic in today’s NBA, but the Jazz are positionally pretty funky when Bogey is on the court, so teams cross-match and switch stuff in ways the Croatian forward can attack. Per tracking data Ben chased down, Utah scores 1.4 points per change whenever Bogey shoots or passes directly to a shooter from the post.

#3

Regular SC7 readers know that I use CleaningtheGlass.com a lot. It’s a great stats site run by a former team analytics guy, and it does some things that other stats sites don’t, such as filtering out heaves and garbage time to give a more accurate, predictive picture. One of those subscription sites that is easily worth the price of a couple of convenience store Diet Cokes per month.

Well, the site keeps getting better. At the behest of our friend Riley Gisseman, CTG added filters to their team stats that allow you to filter by opponent quality. And because of that, we now know that Utah has the third best halfcourt defense when playing against the top 10 teams in the league for point differential. Only the Bucks and Clippers are better at guarding the league’s elite in a halfcourt setting.

The bad news: the Jazz also rank third worst in terms of transition defense² against those same elite teams.

Breaking down the Xs and Os behind a Jazz score from the week

Creating gaps against a 2-3 zone

I saw the Jazz do something against Detroit’s 2-3 zone last week that was unique. Watch them run the same action against the zone on three straight trips and come away with points each time.

A lot of teams will run “double high” stuff against a 2-3 zone, meaning they’ll send two high screeners at the same time. But most of the time, they’ll either set both screens in the same direction, or each screener will set one to the outside on their respective side of the ball, giving the ball handler the choice to go right or left.

You don’t usually see “double high” run the way Bogdanovic and Joe Ingles run it for Donovan Mitchell here. Each time, the Splash Uncles “X” each other to set inside screens for Mitchell. The effect that this double inside screening has essentially creates a gap that Mitchell can attack. The first time, he gets through the open door and commits the backside defender so that Gobert can catch the lob, and then the next two times he gets downhill himself, for a free-throw trip and then for his own thunderous dunk.

One of the principles coaches teach to beat a zone is to “gap dribble” — have the ball handler poke hard right at the seams between two defenders to try to create a fissure somewhere. This nifty Jazz action basically takes that to the next level: Ingles and Bogey actually pry open the gap, and then Mitchell is able to attack it with impunity. 

Clever stuff, highlight-level outcomes. 

After each Jazz win, Twitter helps us decide who was that game’s MVP or most memorable performer

Nothing but wins this week, so let’s get busy handing out some Spaldings.

Jazz 104, Pistons 81: Jordan Clarkson. We know that the real game ball went to rookie Rayjon Tucker after he scored his first NBA bucket in the game’s closing minutes. But Utah’s new supersub claims the game ball here. That’s in part because it was the most efficient and complete he had looked in a Jazz uniform yet, and in part because of his +11 off the bench. But mostly, he HAD to get it after giving the Jazz their first 20+ from a bench player all season. He had 20 on 13 shots, and he had some nice defensive moments as well. Gobert could have gotten it for symbolic reasons (the retaliation elbow on Andre Drummond after the latter clubbed Royce O’Neale) or for basketball reasons (13 & 19, making Drummond’s night really tought). I also thought Ingles was a dark horse; his 10-5-5 wasn’t quite as flashy, but he had several big plays on both ends precisely as the Jazz pulled away.  

Jazz 102, Bulls 98: Rudy Gobert. Sometimes these are tough. This one wasn’t. His raw numbers (17 points, 12 boards, three blocks) don’t even remotely tell the story of how unstoppable he was once the Jazz made him the target of every late play, or his game-saving stops. Just in the last 7:03, he had a block, a dunk, a rebound, another dunk, another rebound, another dunk, then stonewalled Zach Lavine on a driving layup that would have tied it, then another block. Bogey and Mitchell salvaged decent point totals even on off-shooting nights, and Niang had a nice night off the bench. 

Jazz 109, Magic 96: Donovan Mitchell. Apologies to Niang here, who was a huge part of this victory. The game was tied 68-all before he got hot in the late third quarter. He’d pour in 12 points in a matter of about three and a half minutes to help the Jazz build an 8-point lead. But it feels weird to give the game ball based on a hot 3.5-minute stretch on a night when Mitchell went superstar. I have a longstanding policy that game ball is mostly about who the game MVP was, as opposed to the “nice spark off the bench” award. Niang’s 15 points were timely and huge, but when we think about this game a month from now, the primary storyline will be how unstoppable and smooth Mitchell was with his 32 points, six assists, and +15. Put it this way: Mitchell had eight points of his own during that 25-12 run, and he assisted two of Niang’s four triples because Orlando was still hedging every Mitchell P&R. aHe was clearly the best player on the floor. 

Tracking the wild Western Conference postseason race and the Jazz’s place in it

The Nuggets (3-3), Clippers (4-3), Rockets (3-2) and Mavericks (1-3) have all had some recent losses, which has finally opened the door for Utah to pounce.

The Jazz have won five straight and 11 of 13 heading into Monday’s reunion with Derrick Favors in New Orleans. Their nice run, combined with some losses by their peers in the Western Conference #2 through #6 race, has put them within a game of the No. 2 seed. It’s a tight 5-team pack. The Lakers have won five straight in the top spot, maintaining their cushion as the teams immediately below them wobble.

Watch out for a seventh team getting in the mix: OKC has won five straight and nine of 10, and is now just three back of the Jazz in the loss column. Their wins in that stretch include the Clippers, a road victory in Toronto.

FiveThirtyEight’s projection model has moved the Jazz back into a homecourt spot, upgrading their projected win total to 53.

A quick look at the Jazz’s next seven nights of action

The next seven Jazz opponents are sub-.500 squads, and they have a better record than their next 10 foes, starting tonight in Nawlins.

Monday 1/6, Jazz @ Pelicans: Favors has been on a tear for the Pels of late, averaging 11 and 13 on 59% shooting, over a stretch in which New Orleans has won six of eight. Jrue Holiday is questionable against the Jazz, though, and even if he plays, the Pels are in the bottom third of the league for overall offensive and defensive efficiency. This is a harder game than it appears because NOP has been playing better, but this is still one the Jazz should be able to grab with a solid effort.

Wednesday 1/8, Jazz vs. Knicks: Forwards Marcus Morris and Julius Randle lead the Knicks with 19 apiece per outing (rounded). They’ve struggled all season, but look out: they have the seventh best non-garbage time point differential in the last two weeks, per CTG.

Friday 1/10, Jazz vs. Hornets: This will complete the season series against Charlotte after the Jazz pulled away late on December 21. Charlotte had no answer for Gobert in that game, and they still don’t: the Hornets allow the third most attempts at the rim in the league, and the fifth-best percentage to opponents who get there. On the other end, they rely on a lot on guards like Terry Rozier and Devote Graham to create advantages off the drive. When Graham shoots at least 45% from the field, the Hornets are a respectable 8-5. In all other games, they are 7-18.

Sunday 1/12, Jazz @ Wizards: Get ready to feast, Jazz players: Washington is the worst defense in the league by just about any measure, including highest opponent eFG% and defensive points per game. And the Jazz may get an even weaker version of this already weak team. Seven Wizards were out for Saturday’s game against the Nuggets, and many of those seven will continue to be listed as out, doubtful, or day-to-day.

Because after all, following a basketball team is supposed to be fun

All of the renewed All-Star buzz for Gobert coincided with a week when he faced and dominated two All-Star centers in Drummond and Nikola Vucevic.

Let’s use this as an opportunity to check in on Rudy’s career win-loss record against other young centers who have appeared in the midseason classic in the last two seasons³

Gobert hasn’t had any trouble out-starring the All-Stars.

Thanks for reliving another week with us. Now on to seven more days!