Offseason Targets Part I: Finding A Paint-Protecting, Rim-Finishing Big

A player like Favors — or, you know, Favors himself — would match perfectly what the Jazz need from a rotation big man. (Nick Bolerjack via utahjazz.com)

As we outlined following Utah’s season-ending playoff loss, the Jazz aren’t that far off from being serious contenders. Already an All-Star heading into this postseason, Donovan Mitchell took a major leap towards being an alpha superstar, and then reportedly committed to a future in Utah soon after. And Rudy Gobert is still a top-15 impact player who reminded everybody in Game 7 what it looks like when he imposes his will on a game from the defensive end. He too sounds committed to pursuing his goals with the Jazz.

With Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic as secondary stars and a couple of starter-caliber role players in Joe Ingles and Royce O’Neale, Utah’s core is good enough to compete with anybody. In their series against the No. 3-seeded Nuggets, the Jazz dominated whenever their best five players were involved (Bogdanovic missed the series with an injured wrist), but struggled to keep up when they had to rely on bench help.

So honestly, the Jazz don’t even need another star-level acquisition to turn the corner. With a couple of smart rotation upgrades and with continued progress from Mitchell, this team’s window for contention may be cracking open soon.

The Jazz have ball handlers galore, moreso if in addition to the group above they find a way to keep midseason acquisition Jordan Clarkson even after their other roster moves. Their guardline is deep, and they have multiple guys who can create their own shot and/or run pick-and-roll offense. 

Where the Jazz definitely needed more help was up front, and that lack of quality depth up front was even more evident without Bogdanovic in the playoffs. Even with a healthy Bogey, though, they’ll need another big body or two. When their bargain big man signing from last summer failed to pan out, it left the club’s reserve unit without a pick-and-roll threat or a real paint protector.

Ideally, the Jazz would find someone to back up Gobert who can still affect shots in the paint. And as they learned through the failed Ed Davis experiment, it needs to be someone who can still finish on rim dives, or else their bench offense will rely far too much on iso scorers going 1-on-5. Bonus points if it’s someone who can score a little outside the paint, because that means you could buy them a few minutes each game next to Gobert. 

If we were to put that into a shorthand for the sake of brevity, they need a Field-goal Alterer with Verticality & Offensive Rim-finishing Skills. We’ll call this prototype a F.A.V.O.R.S. for short. 

That’s not all they need. They also were light on defensive wings to guard dudes with bigger bodies. They had to cross-match with smaller guys guarding bigger bodies in the playoffs, and Denver consistently attacking mismatches was a big key to how they erased Utah’s 3-1 lead to win the series. Especially as O’Neale was tasked with guarding Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray, it left Utah somewhat exposed on the wings defensively.

Going forward, they could use a big-bodied wing with a positive defensive impact. They don’t necessarily need that person to be a shot creator or pick-and-roll ball handler — since they have a few already — but it should at least be someone who can hit open spot-up shots. At this point they’re talking about a 8th/9th man, so they’re probably not going to break the bank here. We’ll call this roster spot the Big Wing for shorthand.

If the Jazz can get a F.A.V.O.R.S. and a Big Wing, they would have a pretty solid 9-man rotation:

• C: Gobert (34), F.A.V.O.R.S. (14)
• PF: Bogdanovic (32), O’Neale (8), F.A.V.O.R.S. (8)
• SF: O’Neale (18), Big Wing (20), Ingles (10)
• SG: Mitchell (34), Ingles (14)
• PG: Conley (28), Clarkson (20)

Even if chasing a F.A.V.O.R.S and a Big Wing makes it harder for Utah to retain Clarkson, they should be OK. Clarkson was a godsend in December and January when the Jazz desperately needed shot creation, but if everybody’s healthy next year, Clarkson would be a fourth ball-handling guard, and that’s a spot you can generally fill pretty cheaply with a net positive guy to soak up a few minutes. The Jazz would prefer to keep Clarkson, but if the math gets tough, there are alternatives out there.

This would give the Jazz a similar construct to what other contending teams have: starpower at the top, with a couple of complementary quasi-stars, but also the ability to go 8 or 9 deep with quality, rotation-caliber players Quin Snyder could trust in a playoff series. Guys like Georges Niang and Tony Bradley would still get opportunities here and there, but they’d return to the 10th/11th man type roles they’re probably better suited for on a contending team.

So where does Utah find those couple of additional pieces? Today we’ll scan the market for players who match the F.A.V.O.R.S. mold, and then we’ll continue the search by looking for defensive wings who can shoot.

Finding a F.A.V.O.R.S.

Whoa, what a coincidence: did you notice that there is a free agent big man actually named Favors whose profile matches what the Jazz need exactly? And, according to persistent rumors that originated from the intrepid Tony Jones of The Athletic, said big man might be interested in signing with the Jazz.

Derrick Favors registered an 8-year low in scoring average in his only full pro season away from the Jazz. Reports are that he missed his teammates and role with the Jazz, who had to move him last summer to accommodate Bogdanovic’s signing. He’s interested in reprising his role as one of the league’s very best backup centers, and the Jazz could certainly use someone with his skill set. His paint protection numbers are among the league’s best — he has even edged ahead of Gobert some seasons — and he’s also an excellent rim finisher in P&R situations and from the “dunker.” In particular, he had excellent P&R chemistry with Ingles, a tandem that kept the bench unit’s offense afloat.

Favors would be perfect, but he would likely command the full Mid-Level Exception (MLE), likely around $9 million. That would make it harder for the Jazz to retain Clarkson and still stay under the luxury tax line, but it’s doable. If they do use the full MLE on Favors or anybody else, they’ll be hard-capped at the “apron,” which is likely around $139 million next season. The six core guys + a commitment at the MLE would give Utah nearly $113 million of salary commitments for just those seven players, so depending on Clarkson’s market price, the hard cap could become a real constraint.

If a Favors reunion doesn’t pan out, Mason Plumlee, Nerlens Noel and Willie Caulie-Stein will all be free agents. All three have excellent D-PIPM numbers and have already been playing a similar role of reserve bigs on playoff teams. Any of them would be a massive upgrade for Utah as backup bigs, and would probably come in a similar price range or cheaper. Christian Wood is another free agent big who can play both ends, although he might have expectations for a bigger role after being a part-time starter for Detroit last season. 

There are several other veteran bigs with positive a D-PIPM. Using that as a starting point for the search, here are a few categories to consider.

First, some verterans who could be gettable for a little less: like Ian Mahinmi. Meyers Leonard. Alex Len and Bismack Biyombo. Mike Muscala won’t set the world on fire defensively (+0.16 D-PIPM), but he is taking more threes than ever, and Snyder knows him from their year together in Atlanta.

There are some interior defenders who are restricted free agents, but obviously that makes it harder for Utah to poach them away with a low-dollar offer. former Utah Ute Jakob Poeltl is probably the best of the group, a traditional center but not really a floor-spacer. Skal Labissiere and Chris Boucher have both been fringe rotation players for their whole careers, and Thon Maker’s minutes have dropped to the point where he might be gettable, but none of those three seem like win-now contributors in major roles.  

Then there are some discount options. Willy Hernangomez is a fairly average defender overall, but has some offensive chops. Bruno Caboclo is long and energetic, but not terribly skilled, and has mostly been a bit player for his four different teams in six NBA seasons. Ante Zizic is unrestricted after his fourth-year option was declined by Cleveland, but it’s not a great sign that he couldn’t find way to add value even for the lottery-bound Cavs. If the Jazz want to become the fourth team to try turning Dragan Bender into a solid pro, he’s available, as is fellow former lotto pick Noah Vonleh. Isaiah Hartenstein was cut by Houston as the Rockets fully committed to small-ball, but he had some decent stretches as a fringe rotation center. 

If they decide to go with more of a power forward type, JaMychal Green has seen the Clippers’ other arrivals eat into his minutes, so he might opt out of $5M if he felt like there was a market for him to sign a longer deal around the MLE. He’s definitely not someone the Jazz would want to rotate in for Gobert, especially because he’s not really the rim-protecting type. But he has developed into a shooting big man who can also finish around the rim. Paul Millsap is avaiable, too, but as Jazz fans just saw, he’s suddenly not aging all that well. Willy’s brother Juancho Hernangomez (restricted) is a stretch four, but not really a paint protector. Any of those guys still leaves that hole at center anytime Gobert sits, though.

Of course, by limiting the search to players with positive defensive stats, we could be narrowing down past some good options that would offer Utah a slightly different look. Take Aron Baynes: barely negative in D-RPM and D-PIPM, but someone with demonstrated rim-finishing ability and just enough shooting to give Utah some 5-out options.

Scanning those names, it would be hard to do better than Favors as their F.A.V.O.R.S., at least with the Jazz’s specific goals in mind. But some of those other guys would be really good gets if the reunion with Favors doesn’t work out. On this writer’s personal radar, Favors and the athletic, defensively impactful veterans like Noel and Plumlee would be the best fit. Then I’d look at the Muscala/Baynes types — roughly average defensively, but guys who can open up the floor to some degree. If none of those pan out, then it’s probably OK to shift toward the discount options (Leonard? Mahinmi?) or put feelers out on an RFA like Poeltl.

Paging a Big Wing

Even if they’re able to lock down a big guy, there’s more this Jazz team needs to unleash the versatility and depth most contenders can boast. We’ll continue our look at offseason options in the next article, where we go hunting for a wing who matches what the Jazz need on both ends.