Jazz Draft Watch Part II: The Guards Rise

If the Jazz use the No. 23 pick to select a guard, Kentucky’s Tyrese Maxey could be an option. (ESPN.com)

With the 2020 NBA Finals officially in the rearview mirror, the next event on the NBA calendar is the 2020 NBA Draft: set to take place on November 18. Leading up to draft night, I’ll be running through a few players who might be within reach of the Utah Jazz, who own the No. 23 spot. I already looked at some big men who may be available when the Jazz are on the clock. Today, we’ll continue with some backcourt prospects.

Players appear in the order I personally rank the, but I really feel that the difference in quality between this players is not drastic. I would honestly be happy with the Jazz adding any of the players listed below, other than Nico Mannion.

Cole Anthony – North Carolina (Freshman)

DOB: May 15, 2000 (20)   Height: 6’3″   Wingspan: 6’5″ Weight: 190 lbs  Agency: Excel Sports Management

Accolades: Third-team All-ACC, ACC All-Freshman Team

2020 averages (NCAA): 18.5 points, 4.0 assists, 5.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals, .3 blocks, .348 3P%, .750 FT%, .501 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (18), Ringer (15), B/R (15), SI (17) , ESPN (14)

Photo by Kennan Hairston CC BY 2.0

Early in the NCAA season, Cole Anthony was almost a consensus top 5 pick. His athleticism, playmaking ability and versatile shooting profile had evaluators very high on his potential and some were considering him as the potential first overall pick for the upcoming draft. Unfortunately, Anthony missed a good chunk of the season following a right meniscus repair surgery he underwent in December and when he did play, he underperformed relative to expectations. Playing for a bad UNC team didn’t help any either.

Still, the high-end athleticism, smooth shot and playmaking that had scouts so high on him to start the season remain and it seems as though his draft stock has fallen too far. Even with the stock falling, I would be surprised if he goes as low as 23 in this draft, but it is definitely a possibility. Cole Anthony has a smooth shooting form and deep range. He shot .412 on catch-and-shoot 3s at UNC and demonstrated an ability to hit step-back jumpers regularly. He has a quick stroke when shooting and a good first step with solid speed when he decides to drive, making him especially difficult for slower bigs to defend off of switches. Because of his speed, defenders have to respect his jab step, which helps him open up space for a shot. He is ambidextrous and capable of driving to both sides and he has good anticipation in the pick and roll, often making the right play. There’s also potential for him in an off-ball role, drawing a defense’s gravity through his off-ball movement. He makes accurate cross-court passes and shows flashes as both a creator and a scorer.

Unfortunately, Anthony really struggled to finish while at UNC, shooting only .392 at the rim. He doesn’t have great touch, isn’t able to adjust in mid-air and doesn’t play through contact well. When he does draw contact on the drive, his shot tends to go wild. Even with a smooth jump shot and versatile shooting profile, Anthony was only able to shoot .348 from 3 from the college line. His decision making isn’t always high-end and he can be prone to misreading defense. Another major question mark is Anthony’s defense. He doesn’t have the size to be really switchable and would only really be able to defend other guards in the NBA. While at UNC his defensive effort often waned and he had a tendency to just give up on plays and he struggled against physicality. More than anything, his effort just appeared to be inconsistent.

There are multiple factors that contributed to his poor shooting and finishing, including poor shot selection but horrendous spacing on a team that often played two traditional bigs should not be discounted. The 2019-20 Tarheels were bad, finishing 13th in the ACC with a 14-19 overall record. There is a school of thought that Anthony’s struggles can largely be attributed to an untimely knee injury and playing for a bad squad and that he can thrive when healthy and surrounded by good teammates. Given the profile, there’s reason to be optimistic about Cole Anthony, especially if you can get him later in this draft.

Tyrese Maxey – Kentucky (Freshman)

DOB: November 4, 2000 (20)   Height: 6’3″   Wingspan: 6’6″ Weight: 198 lbs  Agency: Klutch Sports

Accolades: Second-team All-SEC, SEC All-Freshman Team

2020 averages (NCAA): 14.0 points, 3.2 assists, 4.3 rebounds, .9 steals, .4 blocks, .292 3P%, .833 FT%, .531 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (16), Ringer (13), B/R (10), SI (15) , ESPN (15)

Photo by Gamecock Central, CC BY 2.0

A 6’3″ combo guard, Tyrese Maxey seems to be more popular among draft analysts than with their sources within NBA teams. I have seen him fall to the 20s in several mock drafts when the analysts are trying to guess who each team is likely to pick, including in the most recent mock draft from The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor who has him 13th on his big board but falling to the Jazz at 23 in his latest mock.

One of the most apparent flaws with the Jazz this season was an inability to defend on the perimeter, so drafting a high-end defensive guard could make some sense. Maxey is absolutely worth taking if he falls to the 20s as many believe he has the skills to be in this year’s lottery. He is a great point-of attack defender with quick hands and feet. When isolating against Maxey, opponents shot only 3/25. He feels screens and DHOs coming and is very good at avoiding contact. He also knows how to use his length to close-out on shooters and close down drives. Off-ball he stays engaged, understands rotations and knows how to read an offense, which allows him to beat opponents to their spots.

On offense, Maxey has a lot of promise. He has a great deal of body control and knows how to decelerate. He’s a solid finisher inside who leans into contact and can play going to his left and right. As a playmaker, he finds cutters and recognizes kick-out opportunities. He loves the lob. 

Unfortunately, Maxey has only average passing vision and a loose handle that can contribute to turnovers. He’s also not a high-end athlete, which makes him more ground bound when finishing. The biggest question with Maxey is with his range and jump shot. Averaging only .292 from 3, he is a streaky shooter who had long periods when he went ice cold and missed big from range. Despite his relatively poor shooting, there is reason for optimism. He’s got a solid floater, demonstrating touch that is also shown in his high FT%. His shooting form is good, although the low release probably contributes to his poor shooting. Many of his misses seem to be a result of footwork as the shot tends to goes wide in the direction of his momentum on catch and shoot and pull up jumpers. There’s also a school of belief that John Calipari’s system at Kentucky fails to maximize offensive production and that Maxey may thrive once in the NBA.

Given his overall basketball IQ and high-end defense, I think Maxey is one of the top point guard prospects in this draft. If he falls as low as 23, he would be a solid choice for the Jazz as a backup to Donovan Mitchell. If his shot can improve to where he’s at least a league average NBA shooter, all the better.

Desmond Bane – TCU (Senior)

DOB: June 25, 1998 (22)   Height: 6’6″   Wingspan: 6’5″ Weight: 215 lbs  Agency: Pyramid Entertainment Group

Accolades: First Team All-Big 12

2020 averages (NCAA): 16.6 points, 3.9 assists, 6.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, .5 blocks, .442 3P%, .789 FT%, .573 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (20), Ringer (20), B/R (26), SI (34) , ESPN (41)

Photo by OSU Athletics CC BY 2.0

As a senior from a less-heralded school, it feels like Bane may be underrated going into the draft. A smart, big, strong 3&D shooting guard seems like the type of player every NBA team is looking for more of. Despite his negative wingspan, Bane knows how to use his body well and is a smart and versatile defender who likely can defend 2-4 in the NBA and even some slower point guards. When defending in isolation, Bane allowed only .143 points per possession this year. He is a high-level  shooter, averaging .442 3P% last year and shooting above .400 3P% each of the past 3 years. He has excellent footwork on his shooting and is capable in both catch and shoot and pull-up situations. His form isn’t perfect but he hits consistently and from deep range. He also has a pretty good mid-range pull-up off the pick and roll and has shown flashes of finishing ability making him a potential 3-level scorer. He has a decent handle that needs some work but there’s no doubt that he can pass, dribble and shoot at an NBA level all while providing good size and defense.

Bane is physically strong but is not otherwise a great athlete. He can be slow and his lack of lateral quickness can be exposed on defense. He also isn’t great with his left hand and his lack of bounce makes him somewhat prone to be shot blocked when driving to the basket. Given his physical profile, he finishes at the rim less than might be anticipated. Because he’s not super quick he can be slow on closeouts. The lack of quickness shows itself on offense as well where he’s not able to burst past bigs that get switched onto him. Opponents did well by taking backdoor cuts against bane, another weakness on defense. 

Maybe it’s just because of the opportunity to use Tom Hardy’s Bane voice when watching Jazz games, but I’d be thrilled to add Desmond Bane to the Jazz bench. 

Grant Riller – Charleston (Senior)

DOB: February 8, 1997 (23)   Height: 6’3″   Wingspan: unlisted Weight: 190 lbs  Agency: RIZE Management

Accolades: First Team All-CAA

2020 averages (NCAA): 21.9 points, 3.9 assists, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 steals, .3 blocks, .362 3P%, .827 FT%, .609 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (25), Ringer (43), B/R (16), SI (32) , ESPN (39)

Photo by LockedIN Magazine CC BY SA 2.0

Could the Jazz draft players out of the College of Charleston two years in a row? As can be seen by his big board rankings, people are all over the place on where they rank Riller. He is a good shooter, averaging .362 3P% and his .827 FT% bodes well for that shooting to transfer to the NBA. He was very good shooting catch-and-shoot as well as pull-up jumpers. He didn’t shoot very much coming off of screens, but his overall shooting ability bodes well for him being able to add that skill in the league. He has good handles and has a really good step-back jumper. Beyond his shooting, Riller has a quick burst and is a high-end finisher with elite touch. He shot .700 FG% at the rim despite rarely dunking and he knows how to finish through contact. Riller shows every indication of being a three-level scorer.

Riller showed flashes of solid passing vision and playmaking but was also prone to miss open men. He was one of the most efficient pick-and-roll players in the NCAA last year and is able to make good reads and pass on target.  His role at Charleston was ball-dominant so he will have to learn how to play off ball once he gets to the NBA. Because he was so ball-dominant, Riller had a tendency to get tunnel vision at times and was prone to missing open teammates.

Riller is a scorer, first and foremost, with flashes of some playmaking ability. As is common with score-first players, his offensive burden at Charleston may have contributed to his poor defense. He often seems disengaged, can easily get caught on screens and give up on plays when he gets beat. Despite his defensive lapses, when he did engage he showed flashes of being a capable defender.

As an older player who played in a mid-major conference, NBA teams will have to evaluate how much they think his demonstrated talents will translate to the league. We know from the 2019 draft that the Jazz scout the CAA and they should have a solid read on whether Riller’s scoring will translate to the NBA and if they can get him to engage. I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing him reunited with Jarrell Brantley.

Devon Dotson – Kansas (Sophomore)

DOB: August 2, 1999 (21)   Height: 6’2″   Wingspan: 6’3″ Weight: 185 lbs  Agency: CAA

Accolades: Consensus Second Team All-American, First Team All Big-12

2020 averages (NCAA): 18.1 points, 4.0 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 2.1 steals, .1 blocks, .309 3P%, .830 FT%, .578 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (42), Ringer (29), B/R (43), SI (42) , ESPN (33)

Photo by Chi1ddd CC BY-SA 4.0

Devon Dotson is a fast, talented ball-handler and creator. Because of his speed, he thrives in transition and is capable of attacking to the left and the right. Dotson is a great finisher, shooting .641 at the rim despite, which is incredible considering his lack of size and the volume at which he attacked the rim. He took half of his shots at the rim and even though every scouting report said he’d be driving into the paint but teams were still unable to stop him. He also isn’t afraid of contact and is very capable at drawing fouls.  Another area where Dotson shines is in his on-ball defense. Like Maxey above and Tre Jones below, Dotson would be able to bolster the Jazz’s perimeter defense. He knows how to read passing lanes and has quick hands, which lets him be quite the ball hawk, averaging 2.1 steals per game. When defending in isolation, Dotson held opponents to only .44 points per possession. Even without incredible length, he knows how to use his body and defend the point of attack well.

Where Dotson lacks luster is in his shooting. He needs to improve his balance and gain consistency in his form and that’s before looking at the actual shot mechanics, which are just off. His ability at the line bodes well for his potential to improve this shortcoming as does a recent workout video which seems to show much improved mechanics. In college opposing defenses were able to go under on every pick and roll and dare Dotson to shoot, if his shot doesn’t improve in the NBA the problem will only be worse. Fortunately for Dotson, he’s fast enough that even when a defender goes under a screen he can often burst past them. That being said, Dotson’s speed is sometimes a double-edged sword as well. He’s lightning fast but doesn’t know how to decelerate well yet, which can lead to turnovers and rushed shots inside. 

Dotson’s high-level defense, ball-handling and creation mean that he stands a good shot of finding a place in the NBA even if his shot doesn’t improve. If he is able to improve his shooting, he could be one of the better sleepers in this draft. Notably, Dotson shares his agent, Ty Sullivan, with Donovan Mitchell and Royce O’Neale.

RJ Hampton- New Zealand Breakers (USA)

DOB: February 7, 2001 (19)   Height: 6’5″   Wingspan: 6’7″ Weight: 181 lbs  Agency: Top Set Player Management

Accolades: 2nd-runner up for NBL Rookie of the Year

2020 averages (All Leagues): 9.59 points, 2.5 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 1.2 steals, .4 blocks, .294 3P%, .737 FT%, .507 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (7), Ringer (21), B/R (20), SI (23) , ESPN (13)

The other big signing of an American high school star (after LaMelo Ball) by Australia’s NBL, RJ Hampton has been all over NBA draft boards this year. He did not shoot well with the New Zealand Breakers before a hip flexor injury caused him to miss most of the season, playing in only 17 games overall. Reports are that he is regularly working with Penny Hardaway and Mike Miller to improve his game. These reports have recently caused his stock to rise to the point where it now seems unlikely he’ll fall as low as 23, but it is possible he’s still on the board when the Jazz draft.

RJ Hampton is young, big, athletic and skilled. All of this makes for a tantalizing prospect who would fill some of the areas where the Jazz are lacking if he falls low enough. He’s a player that would be drafted on potential and actually has a similar profile to former Jazz draft pick Dante Exum. As with Exum, one of the major questions with Hampton is if he will be able to translate his elite athleticism into functional athleticism. He is fast and always hustling, a good off ball player who knows he needs to move. He maintains his speed even with the ball and can drive by slower bigs. His size means he could potentially guard multiple positions and he shows some good instincts on defense, both as a help defender and on ball although he does need to improve his fundamentals and has a tendency to relax on defensive. He also shows flashes of strong finishing.

Another question mark he shares with Dante Exum is whether he will be able to shoot in the NBA. His .294 3P% in the NBL leaves big questions about his jumper although he has reportedly totally revamped his mechanics and his shooting sessions with Mike Miller have helped. Beyond the shaky jumper that might be fixed, averaging only 2.5 assists as a point guard shows his score first mentality and leads to questions about his abilities as a playmaker. He needs to work on his decision making and creation in the pick and roll. Despite legitimate weaknesses in his game, if it’s true that he has reworked his shooting mechanics Hampton’s size and athleticism make him a very intriguing prospect.

Mason Jones – Arkansas (Junior)

DOB: July 21, 1998 (22)   Height: 6’5″   Wingspan: unlisted Weight: 200 lbs  Agency: CAA

Accolades: Honorable Mention All-American, SEC Co-Player of the Year, First Team All-SEC

2020 averages (NCAA): 22.0 points, 3.4 assists, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 steals, .2 blocks, .351 3P%, .826 FT%, .533 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (53), Ringer (unranked), B/R (39), SI (51) , ESPN (70)

Photo by Chris Silva CC BY 2.0

Mason Jones led the Razorbacks in points, rebounds, assists and steals. Not bad for an unrecruited guy who didn’t even start playing basketball until his senior year of high school. Jones’ best skill is probably his ability to draw fouls, with a .668 FTr (free-throw attempts per field goal attempt). For comparison, James Harden’s career best was .592 in 2012-13. And when Jones gets to the line, he hits the shots with a career .826 FT%.  Jones draws fouls on the perimeter with a strong rip-raise when crowded. He draws fouls on step-backs with an effective pump fake and lean-in to the defenders who bite and leave their feet. He draws fouls when finishing in the paint by drawing contact with his shoulders. He’s also a top-tier finisher, hitting over 75% on shots at the rim. When he does draw contact, he’s able to finish through it when going to his right or bounce off it and hit a shot when going to his left.

In addition to his ability to finish on drives and draw fouls, Jones has a smooth shooting stroke and the ease with which he shoots bodes well for him having great range. Unfortunately, his college 3P% of just .351 is not fantastic but his high FT% leads me to believe he will be an above-average NBA shooter. He’s very good shooting off of screens (.483 3P%) but struggles more in catch-and-shoot situations (.318 3P% in 2020, .362 as a sophomore). Jones is a capable ball-handler with a good step-back and a nice hesitation dribble that can freeze defenders. Jones was among the best late-clock scorers in college basketball in 2020. I’d anticipate him playing an off-ball role as a guard, but he is capable of leading a pick and roll.

Unfortunately, Jones is not a great athlete and most of his athleticism is horizontal. He is not a jumper. He struggles to find enough bounce and can get his shot blocked inside. Even without considering his lack of verticality, Jones tends to hold the ball low and play smaller than he is, all resulting in a very ground bound game. He also has some issues with defensive consistency, often over gambling on steals and over pursuing on close-outs, leaving his man open. Finally, Jones lacks touch. He was just 1/13 on floaters this past season and does not have a great mid-range game.

If you believe Jones is an NBA shooter and that his ability to draw fouls will carry over to the NBA, then he should be a lottery talent. As can be seen from the big boards cited above, most analysts don’t think that’s the case. There is concern that without notoriously whistle-happy SEC officials and against NBA athletes, Jones’ skills just won’t translate. Despite concerns, I think that Jones will be a productive NBA player and is definitely worth taking in the first.

Tre Jones – Duke (Sophomore)

DOB: January 8, 2000 (20)   Height: 6’3″   Wingspan: 6’4″ Weight: 185 lbs  Agency: BDA Sports Management

Accolades: Third-team All-American, ACC Player of the Year, ACC Defensive Player of the Year, First-team All-ACC

2020 averages (NCAA): 16.2 points, 6.4 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 1.8 steals, .3 blocks, .361 3P%, .771 FT%, .524 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (21), Ringer (39), B/R (41), SI (39) , ESPN (34)

Photo by Keenan Hairston CC BY-SA 2.0

Much like Maxey, Tre Jones would fill a Jazz need for high-end guard defense. The 2020 ACC Player of the Year is a high-IQ traditional point guard who is a high-end, albeit undersized, defender. I’ve seen his height variously listed as 6’1″, 6’2″ and 6’3″. I suspect he’s 6’3″ with shoes on, approximately the same height as Donovan Mitchell. He earned ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors for a reason and was one of the best point of attack defenders in college basketball last year. He’s also got a high IQ and makes excellent rotations in team defense and is capable of fighting over screens, although he does have a tendency to die on screens and drop out of plays when confronting a good physical screen. If Jones’ college defense translates to the NBA, he could provide some much needed help defending the perimeter for the Jazz. 

Jones is also a great outlet passer and makes excellent reads. He plays with his head up and notices the open man, often anticipating passing windows before they even open and then delivering the pass with pinpoint accuracy. He always plays in control and with discipline. One of his most important traits is his excellent decision-making. He rarely makes unforced errors.

There were times during his freshman year when he looked like a lottery talent in the much deeper 2019 draft with the primary question being his ability to shoot. Strangely, in what’s considered to be a flatter draft this year, his stock seems to have fallen despite massive improvements in his shooting mechanics and overall shooting percentage. His 3P% improved nearly ten percent year-to-year from a dismal .262 as a freshman to a respectable .361 as a sophomore. His massive improvement in mechanics leads me to believe that there is still room for improvement in that area with some work on getting his feet set and maintaining balance with his shot. One of the other areas he will need to improve upon in the NBA is his finishing at the rim. Shooting only .426 at the rim in 2020 according to Second Spectrum, Jones is not an explosive athlete. He sometimes tries to avoid contact when driving and picks up his dribble too far from the rim. With his lack of explosion, he can get into trouble in the key. He’s usually a one-foot leaper and when he attempts to leap off of two feet he just lacks the explosiveness to finish against bigger rim protectors inside.

Given recent Utah Jazz draft history, I have hesitations about the Jazz picking a player who is both named Tre and a guard out of Duke but Tre Jones is not Trey Burke (or Trey Lyles) and he’s not Grayson Allen (the Jazz definitely won’t be choosing him because of his performance in a shooting drill). I think Jones’ floor is probably close to his older brother Tyus, a good quality backup point guard for the Grizzlies. Hard-nosed defending cerebral point guards have a long history of success in the league. Overall, I think Jones will end up being a high-end backup point guard in the NBA. He is a skilled ball-handler and play-maker with excellent basketball IQ on both ends. If his apparent improvement as a shooter is real, we’ll be seeing Jones make an impact as a rotation player in the NBA for the next decade plus.

Nico Mannion – Arizona (Freshman)

DOB: March 14, 2001 (19)   Height: 6’3″   Wingspan: 6’3″ Weight: 190 lbs  Agency: BDA Sports Management

Accolades: Second-team All-Pac-12

2020 averages (NCAA): 14.0 points, 5.3 assists, 2.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, .0 blocks, .327 3P%, .797 FT%, .520 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (43), Ringer (27), B/R (36), SI (24) , ESPN (21)

Photo by Ron Sellers CC BY 2.0

Much like Cole Anthony, Nico Mannion entered his freshman year of college as a projected lottery pick and then poor play caused his stock to fall pretty drastically. Mannion has ties to the Jazz as his father, Pace, was a star for the University of Utah in the early 80s before having a professional career that included a few years with the Jazz.

Where Mannion really shines is in his passing and playmaking ability. He is a fantastic passer who sees the floor well and finds the open man, delivering the pass where it needs to go. He is great in transition and throws some amazing outlet passes. Mannion has a reputation as a shooter because he has smooth stroke, can shoot off screens and has shown a lot of range. That combination of range and playmaking is what had him so high on pre-season boards. Despite looking like a shooter though, he shot a paltry .327 3P% in college. His shooting motion and touch on floaters and at the line give reason to be optimistic he will be a shooter in the NBA but his college performance leaves doubts.  Mannion is an underrated athlete with decent bounce and good speed, but despite being able to run and jump he needs to add strength as he tends to get pushed around on defense and cannot finish well through contact.

One of the major knocks on Mannion is his defense. He’s not the world’s worst defender but he’s not good. He is undersized and does not have along wingspan to compensate. It is very likely that he won’t be able to guard more than one position in the NBA. Although you don’t expect guards to have a high number of blocked shots, the fact that Mannion recorded no blocks at all is concerning. He seems afraid to get caught reaching so tends not to actively use his hands. Beyond his lack of defensive chops, Mannion also lacks finishing ability. He’s got a solid floater but seems over reliant on it when he does drive. More than anything his problem on drives is that he doesn’t. Mannion only took 11.5% of his shots at the rim last year. As with some of the other prospects we’ve evaluated, Mannion has a lot of potential but the weaknesses in his case are severe enough that I would hesitate to take him with a first round pick.