Freelance Friday: Using Other Elite Guards to Chart Mitchell’s Star Leap

Mitchell is already tracking well compared to other elite guards; what can their fourth seasons tell us about what’s next for the Jazz guard? (Rick Bowmer via espn.com)

Editor’s Note: Back when Andy Larsen was looking after SCH, he started the tradition of Freelance Friday: an invitation for readers interested in sharing thoughts via our site to pitch us an article idea. In this Freelance Friday installment, we’re thrilled to hear from Zarin Ficklin, a savvy Jazz fan whose thoughts can also be regularly found on Twitter.

If you have a Freelance Friday article idea, reach out to Dan Clayton. We’d love to hear from more of our readers!

by Zarin Ficklin

As Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell enters his fourth season, he already carries with him comparisons to all-time greats like Dwyane Wade and Allen Iverson. Fans are anxious for Mitchell’s big leap to superstardom, and his remarkable playoff performance — averaging 36/5/5 on 70% true shooting in seven games against Denver — only stoked the excitement for what the All-Star guard could become. How much of that is real and what can we reasonably expect moving forward? Let’s dig into some numbers.

Comparing Mitchell to the best active guards

First, let’s compare Donovan’s third season to the third season of ten of the best active guards. I’ve used per-36 numbers to level the stats.

You can quibble with my choices. Chris Paul is more of a traditional, pass-first point guard, while Devin Booker is less experienced and primarily a dynamic scorer, and John Wall’s later years are marred by injury. But largely I prioritized elite, primary-option guards that feel roughly comparable to Mitchell. To that point I excluded a handful of current top guards like Ben Simmons (too unique), Luka Doncic (too young), and Kyle Lowry (not a clear cut primary-option, a reason that disqualified several others) .

Mitchell’s third season holds up well against this group of the best primary-option guards in the NBA.

Some takeaways from this first set of comparisons:

• Mitchell scores almost 5 points more than the average. Scoring over 25 ppg in his third season puts him in rare company
• Mitchell assisted 2 less than the average guy in this group. This could be explained by Quin Snyder’s offensive system evening the load among multiple ball handlers, or Donovan’s time spent at shooting guard. If you swap out Paul, a prolific passer, Mitchell gets much closer to the group average.
• His rebounds and true shooting are very comparable. Efficiency has always been a big talking point with Donovan, but he’s right on track with the other top guards of this generation.
• Booker is the closest comparable player by these stats.
• Judging by year three numbers, you could reasonably project Mitchell to be an elite guard in the league — if you don’t believe he is one already.

Comparing Mitchell to all-time great guards

Let’s crank it up a notch and compare Mitchell’s third year to some of the all-time greats. I’m sticking to guards from the 3-point era, and again I’ve compiled per-36 numbers.

Even when compared to great guards from the last 40 years, Mitchell is on track to be special.

He holds up well with this group too.

• His points per game is just 2 higher than average now, surpassed only by Wade and Michael (whose third season was his highest scoring year).
• Mitchell’s assists, rebounds, and true shooting are just a hair below average with this group.
• Wade and Vince Carter are the closest statistical comparisons here. Let that sink in.

The leap

Many expected Mitchell to make a huge jump between his second and third seasons. That may have been unfair given how successful he first two years were already, but somehow he did inch forward in year three, keeping his counting stats roughly flat on a per-36 basis, but improving his efficiency. Then, he made a huge statement in the playoffs. There are certainly fair questions how much of that will translate to next season

Let’s see how the other top guards we evaluated above evolved from year three to four. We’ll use their average statistical difference to project what Mitchell’s fourth season could look like if his statistical progress mirrors the trajectory of these other modern and historical stars.

Year 3 to year 4 improvements by the other star guards in our comparison set a template for Mitchell.

The numbers show that, for the average star guard in this group, a slight increase in scoring per 36 minutes is typical, while assists, rebounds, and efficiency all stay steady. Using this data as a template to predict Donovan’s fourth season leads to reasonable projections of 26.2 points, 4.5 assists and 4.4 rebounds per 36, with 56% true shooting. This is obviously very good, but maybe below what some are expecting out of Mitchell after his dazzling playoff performance.

Now, there’s reason to believe Mitchell could make a bigger leap than that. While his role, minutes, and teammates will be largely the same, he did show something in the Denver series. If his off-the-bounce three and foul drawing improve, his scoring numbers could climb significantly higher. Swapping floaters for more threes and free throws would also help his efficiency.

It’s worth noting that some players like Jordan and Carter had their highest scoring average in year three. Both obviously went on to have amazing careers and improved in other ways after their respective third seasons—but the point is that it’s possible Mitchell’s scoring plateaus even as he honest his game moving forward. I don’t think this will be the case, but there’s a precedent.

Among these compared players, assist changes seemed to rely more on role changes than player improvement. Rebounds are a similar story. With Mike Conley returning (and perhaps healthier than he was in 2019-20 when he missed 25 games), I wouldn’t expect Mitchell to see a bump in his assist numbers yet. We’ll see what happens if Conley eventually moves on and the Jazz start to use Mitchell more as a starting point guard.

These numbers don’t take defense into account. Mitchell has regressed a bit. He has the tools to be better, but I’m not holding out for a big jump here—it’s very hard to be an above-average defense player while being the primary offensive option, especially as a small guard.

All this said, even a marginal improvement is something Jazz fans should be really happy about. Donovan Mitchell is already really good! It’s incredibly difficult to jump from 25-point scorer to a 30-point scorer. Players like Steph Curry, Damian Lillard and Bradley Beal made that jump a few years later in their careers, and that Mitchells third year compares favorably to theirs is great news.