Reader Q&A as Jazz Secure Their Core With Extensions For Their All-Stars

Gobert and Mitchell both committed to long-term deals with the Jazz. (Melissa Majchrzak via espn.com)

Rudy Gobert joined fellow Jazz All-Star Donovan Mitchell on Sunday in committing to a long-term future in Utah. Gobert and the Jazz agreed to a 5-year contract extension that will pay him $205 million in total salary starting in the 2021-22 season.

This is great news for the Jazz and their fans. Gobert has an elite impact on winning and is still refining his game, while Mitchell appears to be en route to join him among the league’s top 15 or so talents. The Jazz now how their All-Star core secured for at least five more seasons — this coming year, plus the four years of their extensions before each player has an option during the 2025 offseason.

The core is locked in, even if that means the Jazz will be a bit more restricted in how they improve the roster going forward. We solicited questions from our Twitter pals about what Utah’s financial situation looks like now that the Jazz have completed an active offseason.  

Gobert’s deal

For those of us who aren’t good at numbers, where is this between the max and supermax? @b_fraser_fan

Well, we don’t know exactly how the Jazz structured this, so it’s hard to say. The normal veteran maximum allows for a contract up to 30% of the max. The “supermax” — or Designated Veteran Player Extension — allows for anywhere from 30.1% to 35%. At the reported numbers, Gobert’s extension could start all the way at the 35% figure ($39.2M) and just have lower annual raises, or it could start around $35.2M (about 31.6% of next year’s estimated cap) and get the full 8% raises every year. Those two extremes — or multiple alternate versions in between a starting figure of $35.2M and $39.2M — could get the Jazz and Rudy to the agreed $205M total. So we just have to wait for more reporting on the year-to-year breakdown.

It’s also worth noting that we don’t actually know what the 2020-21 salary cap will be. We have an estimate provided by the league, and that’s what most people are using for their math. But if, for example, Gobert’s contract is tied to a specific percent of the salary cap and the cap comes in lower or higher than the estimated $112M, then Gobert’s actually salary could wind up being lower or higher than the reported $205M. But we’re likely talking about a small variation here.

Could Rudy’s extension have significant incentives, and what might those look like? @zarinf

While the Jazz do love attaching incentives for their players to lock in higher pay by hitting performance milestones, that’s actually not allowed on a Designated Veteran or Designated Rookie Scale extension. What is allowed is specific criteria to set the first year salary. Miami did this with Bam Adebayo’s supermax extension: guaranteeing him a certain starting salary, but then stepping it up depending on whether he achieve’s All-NBA status (or MVP/DPOY). If something like that were included in Gobert’s deal, then those triggers would establish his first-year salary, and then the remaining contract would be calculated by applying the negotiated raises to that first-year amount. That said, I haven’t heard any reporting that Gobert’s salary is tied to trigger, so I would assume nothing like that is in place here.

Also, we were excited to feature Zarin’s great work in a recent Freelance Friday post about Donovan Mitchell’s growth and how it tracks with other elite primary guards. Check it out!

Salary picture going forward: 

How much cap space will they have next summer with Mike Conley’s contract expiring next offseason? @newbymiles89

The short answer: none.

In any given year, most NBA teams do not have cap space. Because the NBA has what is referred to as a “soft cap” — a flexible limit that can be skirted with a number of different exceptions — cap space is only really relevant to teams who want to make a push for a star-level player. Teams without cap space can use certain exceptions to still execute signings and trades above the cap. This can include the rights to their own free agents, salary-matching rules on trades, or certain specific exceptions that they’re given to pursue free agents — like the Mid-Level Exception (MLE) that the Jazz used to sign Derrick Favors this summer.

The deals Utah made this offseason — extensions for the All-Stars and new deals for Favors and Jordan Clarkson — will put the Jazz far over the salary cap. They will still have exceptions available to them, but they will realistically not have the option of creating room to sign a big-name free agent using cap space.

But that doesn’t mean they won’t have tools to use. No, they won’t be able to go pursue another star via free agency, but they will have the ability to keep improving their roster around the margins. We’ll talk about that as we transition to Mark’s question.

Can you dive into future luxury tax position, especially when it comes to being able to use the nontaxpayer MLE? Is the nontaxpayer MLE based on whether you paid the tax in the prior league year? @Mark_R_Pereira

Let’s pick up where we left off on the last answer and bring everybody up to speed on what Mark’s asking.

OK, so over-the-cap teams mostly only have their exceptions to work with. The MLE is the biggest free agent tool over-the-cap teams have to work with, but there are different levels of the MLE. A team that can use the full MLE (about $9.3M this offseason, a little more next summer) without exceeding the league’s luxury tax line by more than a certain amount (called the “apron”) can spend that to give a free agent (or multiple free agents) up to a 4-year deal. Again, the Jazz did this with Favors, the Clippers with Serge Ibaka, the Lakers with Montrezl Harrell, and so forth. It’s called the nontaxpayer MLE.

But if a team is over the apron — or if using their MLE would put them over the apron — then they can’t use it. They can use the taxpayer MLE which is slightly less ($5.7M this past offseason) and can only be used to sign 1- or 2-year deals.

So back to Mark’s question: without solving for two very large unknowns, it’s hard to say. The first is that we don’t know exactly what Gobert’s first-year salary will be. The second is that Mitchell’s contract will either start at 30% of the cap (if he qualifies for the supermax by earning All-NBA, MVP or DPOY honors) or 25% (if he doesn’t).

Utah’s 2021 offseason options could look very different depending on where Gobert’s & Mitchell’s first-year figures land.

If both of their contracts start at the lowe end of what’s possible, the Jazz could enter free agency $7M under the tax line, but with only nine guaranteed salaries. That’s before we account for whether they will keep Miye Oni (non-guaranteed next season) or what happens with their free agents, including Conley. If Gobert’s salary starts as high as possible and Mitchell makes All-NBA this season, then the Jazz will certainly be over the apron and will not have the full MLE available.

In either scenario, they won’t be able to keep Conley and use the full MLE while staying under the apron. So that’s the third variable: does Mike want to stay, and at what price?

So like everything in NBA team-building, there are variables. The biggest variables here are: how is Gobert’s contract structured, where will Mitchell’s deal start, and does Conley stay?

Give me cap breakdown IN % TERMS, not absolute amounts. @jazz_n8

Because of everything I just said about the soft cap and the exceptions teams can utilize over the cap, I’m not sure there’s a ton of value in expressing it this way. But here goes. This assumes a $112M salary cap next season.

2021-22 salaries as percentages of the salary cap (estimated)

You’ll notice those percentages add up to well over 100%. That’s why I’m not sure how much value there is in looking at it this way, because a team’s indivdual limit on spending is actually very pliable.

Conley & other potential additions

Lots of focus (and appropriately so) on the All-Star extensions. Now that those are set, the next big step for the Jazz to stay competitive beyond this season is either keeping Conley, or trading him to replace him with another solid PG. What are the Jazz’s options? @GWilliUte

The champagne corks just popped hours ago on Rudy’s commitment to stay, and already fans are onto worrying about the next thing. Cruel world, the NBA is.

GWilliUte isn’t wrong, though. That’s the next big question hanging over the franchise. The Jazz can retain Mike even if they’re over the salary cap and deep into the tax, if they’re willing, but if he walks and they have to replace him, they’ll be limited to just the exceptions. That makes this an interesting question heading towards the NBA’s March 25 trade deadline.

The Jazz love Mike. They love the idea of what he can be and how he can complement Mitchell in the backcourt, and they saw in Orlando just how tough the Jazz are when Conley is playing well next to Mitchell and Gobert. In a vacuum, I’m sure they’d love to keep him, but he’ll be entering his 15th season at that point, and even a modest salary would cost the Jazz a bunch more in taxes. That might not bother them — it sounds like the new ownership recognizes that almost all contending teams venture into the tax sooner or later — but it certainly will factor into the decision.

I’m not sure, though, exactly what kind of player they can get in return if they decide to move him before that. A team receiving Conley would have to send out $27.5M in salary to get him, and if you start looking for teams that can put together that kind of package without surrendering their stars, the list is finite. It’s smaller still when you exclude teams who already have an elite PG (Phoenix, Portland and Golden State aren’t trading for a PG, for example). Threading the needle on salary match AND mutual interest could be tough.

Probably the most realistic type of deal would be something involving a decent, non-star player making mid-tier starter money, with some other salary thrown in. But it’s still tough to find a perfect deal that works for both sides. Like, if Bogdan Bogdanovic doesn’t work in Atlanta, would they trade him (and Tony Snell) for Mike? Probably not, they just signed BB, and they have Trae Young. Would Indy consider Malcolm Brogdon (plus Jeremy Lamb) for Conley if they fall short this season and decide to reset with expiring salary? Unlikely, since in that scenario they’d be rebuilding and would have little use for a 33-year-old. 

See how hard this is? That’s why I think the most likely scenario is Conley playing out his contract and then he and the Jazz taking it from there. 

How easy is it for the Jazz to retain Conley next off-season given that approx 60% of the cap has been taken? @iamzusuf

The Jazz can retain Conley at any amount, if he agrees to sign. But if they’re over the tax limit, they’ll have to pay his salary directly to him PLUS 1.5 times his salary into the leaguewide luxury tax fund. That’s a big commitment. But again, because they will have full free agent rights on Mike, they could theoretically re-sign him up to the max if they wanted to. 

What does a potential new Conely contract look like? @CalvinShiny

Really tough to say without knowing what kind of a year he has. He might be entering the phase of his career where he’ll be taking exception money to enhance somebody’s title chances, and if that’s the case, Utah will have a good shot at keeping him. But there are 6-9 teams that will have cap space next summer, and several all-league studs like Gobert, LeBron James, Paul George, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and others who would have been available in 2021 already chose to bypass free agency and sign extensions. So with a bunch of cash sitting out there and not many stars available, somebody in that next tier down might get overpaid.

Ultimately, I think Conley knows he has a big pay decrease coming, and that’s fine after he netted more than $150M on his last deal. 

Can the Jazz acquire another star through a trade or signing with their upcoming salary cap situation? If yes, how? @unc2552

For starters, I’m not sure the Jazz necessarily need that. If Mitchell is really headed toward the top 15, the Jazz will have two players in the All-NBA tier, a luxury very few teams have. Behind them, they have a pair of solid quasi-stars in Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic and a bunch of guys who are elite at their specific role (Favors as a backup anchor big, Joe Ingles as a spot-up guy and secondary playmaker, Royce O’Neale as a 3-and-D specialist, Jordan Clarkson as a bench gunner). I see a top eight that is pretty well-equipped. But the ceiling, as we keep saying, probably comes down to what Mitchell and Gobert look like at their shared peak.

But if they decided to look for more starpower, it would have to come via trade, or by nailing another late draft pick. They just won’t have the free agency tools to get a guy that way. It remains to be seen whether packages centering around their non-Gobert, non-Mitchell guys could net them a ready-made star, but I’m sure they’ll keep a pulse on the market. More likely, this is more or less the core that will determine how high Utah can climb, and the changes that happen from here out will be more about improving around the margins.

Which is fine, by the way; every contender gets to that phase at some point, because it’s hard to assemble a title-worthy core without getting into a position where you’ve had to make financial commitments and limit your flexiblity. The question will now simply be: did they commit to the right guys who can get them to the mountain top. There’s only one way to find out.

Basketball & current roster questions

With Favors back, everyone is stoked for the Favors-Ingles pick and roll. Am I wrong to be more excited about the Conley-Favors P&R? Favors is more similar to [Conley’s former teammate] Marc Gasol, which may suit Conley’s game better. @clayson_searle

You’re not wrong, no. It looks like Conley will play some minutes with the second unit, and he Favors will help each other out a ton. Jazz fans should be excited to see those new synergies, because Favors was already an elite P&R finisher his first time around with the Jazz, and that was with a much more spacing-challenged roster, especially beyond the first unit.

But there’s one part of your premise that gets overblown a bit, and that’s this notion that Conley can only operate with one particular style of P&R partner. People forget that he also played a huge portion of his career running P&R with Zach Randolph, a low-post bruiser type who barely took any threes during his Memphis years. And more to the point, Conley is just a smart, experienced guy who has been in every situation imaginable on an NBA court. He can certainly be successful connecting with arguably the league’s best volume roll finisher in Gobert.

So yes, you should be excited about Conley-Fav. And Ingles-Fav. And Conley-Gobert. And Mitchell-Gobert. This team has mutliple solid P&R creators, and two above-average to elite finishers. Be excited about all of the various combinations that yields.

How many G League affiliate contracts do teams get? The Jazz signed six guys to Exhibit 10s this year, but usually there are only four “affiliate player” spots for training camp invitees. If it’s less than six affiliate player spots, which of Ro Gill, Jake Toolson, Tre Scott, Trevon Bluiett, Malcolm Miller and Yogi Ferrell will the Stars keep? @SloanImperative

What SI is referring to here is the mechanism where a G League team can claim the rights to a certain number of guys that their NBA affiliate had in camp and waived. The number used to be four. A few years ago, they quietly changed it to five (without ever updating the G League website), at least temporarily. We noticed that the Jazz actually signed and waived a total of six players, and we weren’t sure if that meant the number had been bumped up again, or if the Jazz/Stars braintrust had simply decided they didn’t like what they were seeing from one or more of the guys they signed primarily to secure their G League rights.

To answer this, let’s zoom out to how G League rosters are put together. I’ll try to keep this from getting too nerdy.

G League players don’t sign contracts directly with a team — they sign a standard G League contract and then the league has rules on how those players get assigned to a specific team. That includes affiliate player rights (for up to 4-5 guys who were in camp with the parent club), returning player rights (for guys who previously played with the team), and everybody else goes into a G League draft pool and has their rights assigned that way. (It obviously works differently for two-way players and NBA roster players who are assigned to the G League team, because their rights are already held by a specific NBA club.)

The ansewr to this 6>5 math quandary is probably Bluiett. He actually played on the Stars previously, so the Stars would have held his G League rights (via returning player rules) even if the Jazz hadn’t brought him to camp at all. So most likely, the affiliate player limit is still five, and the Stars will hang onto Bluiett via returning player rights. It’s unfortunate that the rules are so opaque in the G League, but that’s my best guess. The other possiblity is that the affiliate limit did go back to four, Bluiett still stays as a Stars alum, and one of those guys just didn’t do enough to secure the Stars’ interest. But the former is the more likely explanation. I suspect we’ll see all six of those guys on the Stars, unless they get a call from an NBA team first.

Thanks for all the questions!