Salt City Seven: Lineup Magic, 6MOY Intrigue, Playoff Push & More

April 26th, 2021 | by Dan Clayton

With two Sixth Man of the Year frontrunners, the Jazz have been able to tweak lineups without All-Star Donovan Mitchell. (Harry How via espn.com)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

The Jazz backed into their fifth straight playoff berth, limping along at a somewhat unremarkable 6-5 since April 5, including a 2-2 stretch since All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell injured his ankle. They’ll be without the brilliant scorer for at least another week, which makes it somewhat notable that the early results have been mixed.

That first loss — coming less than 24 hours after Mitchell’s ankle turn — almost shouldn’t count. The Jazz rested three other key players and still pushed the Lakers to overtime before losing by a dozen. Since then:

  • With their non-Mitchell starters back for a second game in Staples, the Jazz blew out the home team in a wire-to-wire victory.
  • They similarly boatraced the Rockets at home, leading by as many as 36.
  • But then they coughed up a 17-point lead at home to the Timberwolves, who gummed up Utah’s offense with their length and pressure.

A 2-1 start to life without Mitchell isn’t horrible. Saturday’s home loss was untimely and frustrating, but they still comfortably managed to maintain the league’s best Net Rating with a +10.7 for the week behind All-Stars Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley.

A look at Quin Snyder’s lineup magic helps paint a picture of how they’ve (mostly) stayed on course without their star guard. It also subtly tells the story of Mitchell’s tremendous value.

The regular rotation: Three core groups

All season, the Jazz have mostly organized their rotation into three core units, and each has been really successful. The starters open and close each half, and have posted a season-long net rating of +10.81, tremendous considering that group plays almost exclusively against opposing teams’ best players. Then two hybrid starter-bench units take turns: a Mitchell-led group plays a few minutes around the middle of each period, and a quintet featuring Gobert and Conley a trio of reserves straddles the quarter breaks.

That latter group rightly gets a ton of credit for smashing opposing bench units to the tune of +15 per 100 possessions, which is a huge part of the reason that Gobert and Conley possess the league’s two best plus-minus totals for the year by a wide margin. That lineup has been a massive competitive advantage for the Jazz.

But the reason Snyder can get away with letting Gobert and Conley abuse opposing reserves is precisely because Mitchell is as good as he is.

Mitchell stays on as the lone star headlining a group of guys ranked somewhere between fourth and ninth on the depth chart. The fact that he has carried that group to a +10.8 — the same Net Rating as the starting unit — is remarkable and a testament to his value. Keep in mind that the first sub often happens when the other team still has its best lineup on the court, and a group of Mitchell and four role players2 is able to sustain the starters’ dominance while Gobert and Conley catch a breather and prepare to obliterate the adversary’s B-team.

This is a huge ingredient to the Jazz’s success. There are other lineups of course, both because sub patters are never 100% clean and because Snyder tries different stuff out here and there. But when everybody’s healthy, these three 5-man squads get the bulk of the minutes, and all three units are double-digit positive.

Rotation tweaks sans Mitchell

After Mitchell was helped off the Vivint Arena floor 10 days ago, the Jazz had a few options as to how to restructure the rotation without him. They opted for one that keeps the Gobert-Conley tandem intact. That means that Joe Ingles has assumed Mitchell’s spot both in the starting unit and in that next hybrid squad. Miye Oni has subsequently backfilled Ingles’ role in the other mixed group.

Stats from NBA.com

The starting unit with Ingles in Mitchell’s spot has been elite in its 99 minutes so far, including in the last three games. Likewise, when Oni has slid into Ingles’ spot in the Conley/Gobert-led squad (76 minutes), the Jazz have run away from opponents. Opponent quality plays a role here, too, but the bottom line is that these lineup versions work too, in small but growing sample sizes.

It’s that middle unit that hasn’t quite held up the same way without Mitchell’s dynamic scoring. This certainly isn’t Ingles’ fault; the lineup just doesn’t have a ton of creation options. Jordan Clarkson has been in a protracted funk (.525 true shooting for the last three months), and even at his best he is more bucket-getter than pure facilitator. Bojan Bogdanovic is mostly an endpoint in the offense, although he can hunt mismatches and occasionally be a second-side creator. Royce O’Neale doesn’t create, and Derrick Favors isn’t the same roll threat that Gobert is. That group’s best offensive staple is the Ingles-Favors pick-and-roll, but the 95.4 ORtg belies the fact that it’s just a more schemable group than the same quintet with Mitchell.

So now, instead of playing more winning basketball while Conley and Gobert prepare to come back and smash opponent benches, the Jazz are essentially treading water in those same minutes. In the past week, they’ve done worse than that, posting a minus-5.9, although the sample size there is problematically small.

Bogey is starting to come alive, which could give that unit another efficient way to create offense. It would be great if Clarkson could return to his early-season efficiency as well. Remember: lineup data is interesting and descriptive, but not very predictive. That fivesome has only played 49 minutes together, and the next 49 could go very differently.

Still, it’s an interesting lens on where the Jazz miss Mitchell the most. It’s also a powerful reminder of how big a part of the success story he’s been for Utah this season. 

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

A couple of seeding races are really getting interesting.

Three weeks remain in the regular season.

Far and away, the race you should be paying attention to isn’t the Jazz-Suns battle for No. 1. Utah’s work there isn’t finished, but the difference in schedule strength makes it highly unlikely that the Jazz surrender that spot. Basketball Reference still gives the Jazz a 92.5% chance at the top seed, and the record projections at FiveThirtyEight give them a 4-game cushion over Phoenix (3 plus the tiebreaker over the Clippers).

Instead, keep an eye on the suddenly more interesting race for fifth. Dallas’ consecutive wins against the Lakers this week moves them to within a game in the column of the No. 5 seed and gives them the tiebreaker should the two teams land on the same win total. Dallas has a much easier remaining opponent slate, and the Lakers still have no idea when LeBron James will rejoin them on the court. Anthony Davis hasn’t looked quite right since his return (24.1% FGs), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (ankle) missed their last game, as well.

This is all interesting to Utah, of course, because the winner of the 4-5 matchup would be the Jazz’s second-round foe if Utah secures No. 1 and prevails in the first round. If the Lakers surrender the fifth spot to Dallas and everything else holds, then the two LA teams and Phoenix will be stuck in the same bracket half (along with Portland), meaning the Jazz would only have to face one of them to come out of the West.

The Lakers still have the inside lane, for sure. But the projection systems think it’s a real race now, too: FiveThirtyEight projects them to finish within a game of each other, and B-Ref gives Dallas a 38.2% shot at climbing to fifth or higher.

At the very least, it’s something else to watch for over these final three weeks.

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

47

In the past 10 seasons, only one Jazz player has had a 4-game stretch with 47 assists or more. That was Conley’s 4-game stretch that extended into this past week. He has just been superb lately, reading defenses and slicing up opponent game plans with smart passes.

72%

The Jazz were red hot on Monday in L.A. Their 72% effective field goal percentage (excluding heaves and garbage time) was their second best of the season. O’Neale’s 130% and Ingles’ 95.5% definitely helped. 

81.8

The Jazz’s pre-garbage time defensive rating against Houston was in the top 1% of all NBA games this season. When Gobert was on the court, they held the Rockets to 63.0 points per 100, and with Conley it was 55.8. Those numbers are borderline unfair. Houston shot just 3-for-15 (20%) on all shots where Gobert was the closest defender, and 2-for-9 (22%) when it was Conley.

31

The Timberwolves are not usually a defensive group, but they really limited the Jazz on Saturday night. It was Minny’s best defensive performance of the year by a wide margin (83.9 DRtg, seven points better than the next best), and a key feature of that effort was limiting Utah to just 31 shots inside 15 feet. The Jazz also shot just under 42% in that area. Instead, they took 50 combined threes and long twos. All of that makes it feel like the wrong game to comment that officiating effected you. 

24-6

Since the Jazz’s recent stumbled include Minnesota and a pair of losses to Washington, the narrative about the Jazz not taking care of business against bad teams has resurfaced. Actually, Utah is 24-6 against teams below .500, the best record in the league against that segment. Phoenix has fallent recently to the same Wolves, and to Indiana and Orlando. The Clippers have losses to sub-.500 New Orleans and Orlando since the All-Star break. In other words, it happens to everybody. Any NBA team can beat any other NBA team on a given night when things go a certain way, and there’s nothing disqualifying about those losses, provided a group can bounce back quickly.

In their own words

“We just out there hooping, doing what we do, playing our roles… I feel like we’re the best two bench players in the league right now. That just shows how good a team we are.”

-Clarkson, on the Sixth Man of the Year race between him and Ingles

The budding 6MOY rivalry between Jazz teammates Clarkson and Ingles could get really interesting.

The former has long been the favorite after a scorching hot start that saw him maintain 50-40-90 shooting splits for nearly a month to open the season. He’s also the league’s top scoring reserve at 17.5 points per game, and this award almost always goes to a top-3 bench scorer.

Ingles’ case is more about efficiency and impact. He now has the second-best odds to win at most sportsbooks that offer that bet, largely because he’s been ridiculously efficient. He doesn’t match Clarkson’s volume, but the he leads the NBA in 3-point percentage and eFG% among qualified players. He has the best RAPTOR WAR and VORP WAR of any reserve in the league (and 25th highest overall in both categories). He has started 18 games — and will certainly start more — but he will still comfortably qualify for 6MOY based on the league’s criteria.

It could get spicy in Jazz Nation if Ingles’ candidacy continues to gain steam and make this a real race between two elite, likable, but very different bench contributors. Or… Jazz fans could choose to relish the fact that the Jazz have likely the two best reserve players in the NBA.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Up 17 on Saturday, it looked an awful lot like we’d be handing out three game balls this week. Instead, here are two, plus one “strong in defeat” honor for Utah’s 2-1 week.

Jazz 111, Lakers 97: Joe Ingles. This could easily go to Gobert (it could almost always go to Gobert), but Ingles had a tremendous impact on this game. He had 21 points (on just 11 shots), including a 13-point, 5-for-6 third quarter that Utah used to pull away. He also had four rebounds and five assists, which means he edged Clarkson’s 22-3-1 and Bogdanovic’s 19-3-4. O’Neale had a tremendous game, making all five shots and narrowly missing a double-double. We’ll give this one to Ingles because he took over offensively in a way we don’t always see, and for his team-best +23.

Jazz 112, Rockets 89: Mike Conley. The Jazz defense was bonkers, and when that happens we usually give a ton of the credit to Gobert. In this particular game, Conley was central to Utah’s scheme of not allowing John Wall to get downhill at all. He played superb defense, as evidenced by a team-best 55.8 (!!!) defensive rating, and an insane +85.7 net rating. He didn’t shoot well (4-for-12, 1-for-6 from three), but he absolutely toyed with Houston’s defensive switching, carving up their coverages for a fourth straight double-digit assist night. Gobert was ridiculous too, both on defense and with his 19-and-18 stat production. But Mike’s fingerprints were all over this one. (Also another 21-6-4 night from Ingles, another 22 from Clarkson, and Georges Niang was very much on.) 

Strong in Defeat:

  • Jazz 96, Wolves 101: Bojan Bogdanovic. Pretty easy call here. On a night when all of Utah’s other offensive creators struggled, Bogey poured in an efficient 30, including seven threes. Conley and Clarkson were the only other double-digit scorers, but they needed a combined 31 shots to get their 33 total points, and Ingles was ice cold. Gobert was great on the glass (17 boards) and played great defense late, but it was an uneven night even for him. 

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

The Jazz have another 4-in-6 stretch, and they won’t have consecutive days off again until the 5- to 6-day break they get between the regular season finale and their playoff opener.

Monday 4/26, Jazz @ Wolves: Since the Jazz are fresh off blowing a 17-point lead to these Wolves at home, there’s no need here for the customary warning about not taking lottery teams lightly. As mentioned in this space last week, Karl-Anthony Towns (27 & 11) and Anthony Edwards (22, 37.5% from deep) have both been hot in the month of April, and we just saw how their length at every position was able to disrupt Utah’s ball movement. Having said that, it’s unlikely that Conley, Ingles and Clarkson — Utah’s three best offensive creators when Mitchell is out — all have bad nights again like they did on Saturday. Minny owns the worst 3-point defense in the league, yet those three combined for 7-for-25 from deep. More importantly, they passed up open ones because the Wolves’ defense had them all fartoost. 

Wednesday 4/28, Jazz @ Kings: De’Aaron Fox will miss this one, which makes the Kings a lot less talented but also a bit more mysterious. Rookie Tyrese Haliburton has had promising games when he’s taken the mantle from Fox, but overall he’s not a winning player yet. Sacramento actually doesn’t have a single rotation regular with a positive net rating, but the closest are Harrison Barnes (-1.9) and Richaun Holmes (-0.9), who had 25-and-10 the last time he faced Utah. The Jazz pulled away from the Kings late in that game, but it took a 42-point night from Mitchell.

Friday 4/30, Jazz @ Suns: This is a big showdown. A win could effectively end Phoenix’s pursuit of the No. 1 seed, and a loss puts some pressure on the Jazz in their final nine. Utah lost the first meeting because the Suns were red hot in the midrange. They adjusted in the second game by bringing the bigs to the shot, but forgot to account for the rebounding mismatches that would result if Gobert and Favors were venturing out to contest. And in both games, Utah had a hard time scoring against the stout Phoenix defense. Two of Utah’s six worst offensive performances (excluding garbage minutes) came against the Suns. Former Jazzman Jae Crowder has missed the last two with an ankle sprain, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be back to face his old squad. 

Saturday 5/1, Jazz vs. Raptors: The Raps bottomed out at 18-30, but have since turned things around with a 7-5 April. That has prompted them to take Kyle Lowry out of mothballs, but the real story has been Pascal Siakam’s resurgence: 26-7-5 (rounded) so far this month. They still aren’t great defensively, largely because they give up the third most 3-point shots. They are employing some pretty complex schemes, their own players report, but it hasn’t really worked, largely because they lost a lot of defensive talent in 2020 free agency. Fringe MIP candidate Chris Boucher is out indefinitely (MCL), and a few deep reserves are currently day-to-day, including 2014 Jazz draftee Rodney Hood.

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

Mike Conley Jr. is a first time NBA All-Star, a top three player in Estimated Plus-Minus… and now an Oscar winner!

“Two Distant Strangers,” a film co-executive produced by the NBA veteran, won the Academy Award for best live action short film on Sunday night. Former NBA MVP Kevin Durant and eight other executive producers collaborated on the film, which takes a dramatic look at some of the inescapable challenges Black Americans still face.

One Jazz fan is hosting a Netflix watch party on Tuesday night to take in the poignant 29-minute film. This is a great way to celebrate Conley’s success, connect with other fans, and engage on an important and timely topic. More info can be found on the “Jazz Fans Against Racism” Twitter feed:

Three more weeks! Thanks for following along with us for another seven days in Jazzland.

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