Dispelling Myths Around Gobert’s Defense

Gobert, shown here in Game 3 of last year’s playoff series against the Nuggets, has played a major role in each of his four previous playoff runs — which disproves a popular fan narrative about his playoff usefulness. (Mike Ehrmann via espn.com)

The misinformation continually fueled by clickbait factories and their bands of trolls has created a monumental gap between fan perception of Rudy Gobert and Rudy Gobert’s reality.

It’s ironic that in a year where Gobert will likely win his third Defensive Player of the Year award, the majority of the media members and especially casual NBA fans on social media openly mock him more than praise him. The minute somebody makes a claim about his defensive prowess, the knee-jerk responses come flooding in. Three of the most common ones are:

• “Gobert can’t stay in front of perimeter players,”
• “Gobert can’t guard 1 through 5”
• “Gobert gets played off the floor in the playoffs.”

Let’s look into the veracity of these three claims. The conclusion should come as no surprise to those who watch the Jazz on a nightly basis.

Myth #1: Gobert can’t guard on the perimeter

This claim is usually accompanied by one of the same handful of highlights from the last few years, like Steph Curry getting Gobert turned around in 2017. The problem with that sample size is that it’s plenty easy to find a few highlights to support any basketball hypothesis. Someone could just as easily compile the right few plays to “prove” that Steph Curry is a terrible 3-point shooter, that LeBron James can’t pass the ball, and that Damian Lillard can’t close in the 4th quarter.

Luckily, the NBA tracks the number of shots a player defends, so we can zoom out past the GIFs and find real data.

Gobert defended 1,335 shots this year, 184 more than anyone else. The 267 3-point shots he defended are the fourth most among 67 NBA Centers, and also more than Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Marcus Smart, OG Anunoby, and Kawhi Leonard. He’s defended the seventh most shots in isolation (78), and the most shots attempted on cuts to the basket (229). It’s safe to say Gobert puts himself out there in terms of guarding every player on every play more than anyone in the league.

When looking to the entire sample size of these instances, the numbers make it infinitely clear that Gobert isn’t just a good perimeter defender, he’s elite. This is true whether Gobert is (1) guarding in isolation, (2) matched up with the ball handler in the pick and roll, or (3) contesting a spot up perimeter shot.

Let’s start with isolation defense. This year, there were 87 players that guarded at least 50 isolations. If mainstream highlight reels are your source of information here, you’d expect to see Rudy at the bottom of the pack. Actually, the opposite is true. Gobert allows the seventh fewest points per possession (PPP). Opponents score an average of 0.71 points per isolation when Gobert is defending. That’s less than Simmons (0.73), Anunoby (0.76), Bam Adebayo (0.78), Mikal Bridges (0.97), Giannis Antetokounmpo (1.06), Clint Capela (1.07), and Myles Turner (1.08).

Per NBA play type tracking.

Gobert also allows the third lowest scoring frequency (30.6%), the eighth lowest FG% (32%), and the fourth lowest FT throw frequency (4.7%) when guarding opponents in isolation. So, how’s Gobert so good at guarding isolation? He stays in front, goes straight up with his 7’9 wingspan arms, and contests without fouling.

2 Minutes and 3 Seconds of Rudy Gobert shutting down perimeter players.@rudygobert27 DPOY. pic.twitter.com/oexWengyew

— 𝐇 𝐨 𝐨 𝐩 𝐕 𝐞 𝐧 𝐮 𝐞 (@KGsGOAT) May 4, 2021

Next, there’s guarding the ball handler in the pick and roll. There are 201 players that have guarded the ball handler in a pick and roll at least 10 times (min. 50 games played). Since tracking data has only picked up that Gobert has guarded the ball in the pick and roll on 15 possessions, this data isn’t as tight as the isolation data, but it’s what we have to deal with. Of the 201 players, Rudy Gobert allows the sixth fewest points per possession (0.67), which is better than basically every household name including Adebayo (0.69), Butler (0.74), Leonard (0.87), Simmons (0.87), and Antetokounpo (0.88).

Per NBA play type tracking.

NBA centers aren’t supposed to be great at guarding the ball in pick and roll, let alone guarding a perimeter player coming downhill off a screen. But Gobert is a different animal. He moves his feet better than anyone of his size, showcases immaculate timing, and almost never fouls. Incredible.

Next, we have spot-up shooting or catch-and-shoot defense. This is basically how well defenders close out on a shooter that was just passed the ball. There are 233 players who have guarded at least 100 spot-up plays. Again, Gobert allows the seventh fewest points per possession (0.83).

Per NBA play type tracking.

Gobert again is basically better than every top defender. Allowing just 0.83 points per possession on these higher percentage shots is outstanding.

Overall, taking the individual average points allowed (PPP) against isolation, on-ball pick and roll, and catch and shoot, Gobert’s average doesn’t just keep up with the others top candidates for DPOY this year, he blows them out of the water.

Among DPOY candidates, nobody shows the versatility to impact outcomes across play types to the same degree as Gobert.

Myth #2: Gobert can’t guard 1 through 5

The best and most reputable source for information around defensive versatility score is BBall-Index, but that data is on a subscriber-only database. I’ll attempt to deduce something similar by doing some math on my own. Hold onto your butts.

The idea is to find a way to measure the equality of the positions guarded, looking at time % spent guarding different positions/roles. Luckily, the NBA.com tracking stats do provides percentages that can be filtered into three positional groupings: guards, forwards and centers.

While using 3 positions isn’t the best way to counter the 1-5 argument, I actually think 3 positions is more helpful. I like it. The NBA has evolved. Since the vast majority of players don’t fall perfectly into a pure PG prototype or the pure SG, it matters a lot less that a player can guard the 1 and the 2 because the skill set is basically the same thing. The same goes for SF and PF, for the most part. The real question should be whether you guard different levels of size and athleticism, and I think guard, forward, and center covers that. Thus, sorting positions into these three categories isn’t the worst idea and should still reflect a player’s ability to guard different types of players.

A quick analysis on shots defended, filtered by positional groupings.

Since the center position retains its category while the other four (PG, SG, SF, PF) merge into two categories, this reduces the score of players that rarely guard centers. That’s why you see big men separated from the wings/PFs. It’s too hard to compare Still, as explained above, three categories are potentially more helpful than the standard five anyways. There’s arguably more value in being able to matchup with a guard and a center, or a center and a guard, than there is to being able to matchup with a point guard and a shooting guard. Measuring 5 positions gives double points for small player who can only guard PGs and SGs, devaluing a larger player than can only guard centers. The counterpoint here is that, at almost all times, there are four non-centers on the floor and only one center, so the need to guard the non-center type roles is more valuable.

Using a chi-squared fit formula, we can determine how equal a player’s distribution of time is across guarding centers, forwards, and guards. Under this test, if a player is perfectly versatile (defending all three positions 33.3%), their score would be 0. If a player guards a single position for 100% of the time, their score would be 2. The lower score, the more versatile the defender. This is what you’ll see below. I’ve also included the FG% allowed under each position, and highlighted the three best on each column.

It’s important to remember that versatility doesn’t tell you how good of a defender the player is at guarding all positions, it only tells you how evenly distributed those minutes are. For example, there are many factors are at play in determining how often Boban Marjanovic matches up with guards; he might be matching up with guards more because opposing teams are choosing to go at him, and not because his team necessarily wants him taking those switches.

However, this still tells us something. The reality is that Gobert has a far better score here than most players on this list because he matches up with guards a fair amount of the time (17.1%). Conversely, Simmons matches up with centers only 6.1% of the time. That’s a big difference. In terms of how each player does in the other guy’s wheelhouse, Gobert holds guards to 39.1% field goal shooting (Simmons 42.1%), while Simmons allows centers to shoot 57.9% (Gobert 43.4%).

Myth #3: Gobert gets played off the court in the playoffs

Rudy Gobert has played in 6 playoff series in his career. I want to admit at the outset, as you might already know, that the Jazz lost 4 of them. But even in those four series losses, the only series that Gobert even allowed the opposing team to outscore him while he was on the court were the Rockets in 2019 and the Warriors in 2017.

• 2019-20 vs. Nuggets: +26 (L)
• 2018-19 vs. Rockets: -50 (L)
• 2017-18 vs. Thunder: +34 (W)
• 2017-18 vs. Rockets: +34 (L)
• 2016-17 vs. Clippers: -4 (W)
• 2016-17 vs. Warriors: -62 (L)

In 2018-19, the Jazz faced the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs. At the time, Houston’s offense was both on a historic pace. Rockets had an offensive rating of 114.9 in the regular season. The year before, the Rockets put up a 116.0 o-rating in the first round. The Jazz held the Rockets to a 108.5 offensive rating in that series, the lowest mark of their playoff run. (The Rockets would go on to score 112.1 in their next series vs. the Warriors.) The Jazz didn’t advance, but that was mostly due to their inability to make open shots, rather than anything involving the Gobert-focused defensive strategy.

In 2016-17, the Jazz faced the Warriors in the second round. Across their entire playoff run that year, the Warriors had an ORtg of 118.2. Their first round was a 116.9. In the Western Conference Finals it was 120.3, and in the Finals 120.4. Against the Jazz in the conference semis, the Warriors managed just a 114.4, their worst of any series of their title run.

If anything, the real issue in these playoff series for the Jazz was offense-related. The Jazz¹ simply could not score. But in terms of the quality of the Gobert-led defense, it held up. Gobert most certainly did not get played off the court in either of those series. His minutes in the 2017 Warriors series were actually higher than his regular season minutes average, and in 2019 he played just 1.4 minutes per game less than he did over his 81 games.

These common criticisms of Gobert’s game just don’t hold water when you analyze his outcomes in these areas relative to other top defenders. Whether it’s his perimeter defense, his positional versatility or his postseason impact, the lazy narratives don’t come close to describing the reality of all that Gobert does. In fact, dive into the numbers and film on any of those three areas, and it only strengthens his case: Gobert is, quite simply, the best defender in the NBA right now, full stop.