What’s Next for the Jazz?

Will the Jazz keep their All-Star core of Mitchell, Conley and Gobert together for another run at a championship? (David Sherman via espn.com)

The Utah Jazz’s season is over. The regular season was one of the most enjoyable in recent history. The postseason ended unceremoniously after losing four straight games to the Los Angeles Clippers. Now the top-seeded team must wrestle with questions. Among them: Would the Jazz have won if Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell were healthy? Are there deeper issues in roster construction? Is opponent small-ball going to be the Jazz’s kryptonite regardless of health? Why did the bench struggle? Did the Jazz lack focus and effort? Is Rudy Gobert’s playoff ceiling an issue or just a product of the roster makeup?

All of those questions can be summarized this way: what exactly happened in the Clippers series?

As a follow-up to yesterday’s post-morten on Jazz-Clippers, let’s focus today on different — perhaps more fun — question: what’s next for the Jazz?

As fans and armchair general managers, it may feel overly simple to diagnose the team. Clearly they need some perimeter defense. Conley and Mitchell are only 6’1″ and were hurt. Joe Ingles and Bojan Bogdanovic are not laterally quick (although Bogdanovic had some admirable stretches guarding Kawhi Leonard). Royce O’Neale can only do so much. He seems to agree.

“I think one of our downfalls at times was defense, but it’s a team effort,” O’Neale said after the Jazz’s Game 6 loss. “I think having another guy to help us all out… probably another wing guy.”

So draft, trade, or sign a bunch of two-way wings, right? Right. Unfortunately that’s the most sought after player archetype. General Manager Justin Zanik said, “Two-way players are very very important to NBA clubs. That’s why they come at really high premiums.”

Let’s take a closer look at the type of player the Jazz need and where they can get it.

What do the Jazz want?

While adding two-way players that can defend the perimeter without compromising spacing seems like a straight-forward fix, it’s not so simple. Assuming the organization is aligned with that goal, accomplishing it can be done in many different methods, some more drastic than others. On top of that, there are rumors that the organization could be in flux, and different parties may see the solution happening in different ways.

It would not be surprising to learn the front office prefers to run it back. Dennis Lindsey, the Jazz’s Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations, said as much.

“Obviously we err towards continuity,” Lindsey said. “I think the natural bent is grass isn’t always greener.”

And he may be right. This team was really good and it’s easy to envision them beating the Clippers at full strength. With the two All-Star guards healthy, all of the other trickle-down concerns may have dissipated. Would Ingles had been so tired? Would Gobert have been able to stick closer to the rim? Would the Clippers have even had the opportunity to punk the Jazz? It would make a lot of sense to at least run back this team one more time and see.

But there are two other parties who could change that plan. One of them is Conley, who will become an unrestricted free agent next month. Once openly vocal about wanting to return, he was less committal in his exit interview.

“It’s something I have to sit back and consider with my family and when that time comes I have to make the decision that is best for us.”

What Mike wants is going have a massive effect on what the Jazz do next.

And then there’s the new ownership group. Ryan Smith took over as majority club owner last winter, and it’s not uncommon for new owners to put their stamp on how things are done. Dwyane Wade has a voice. We don’t know what direction this group wants to go: do they want to shake things up, or push all the chips in with this group and pay a deep tax bill? Or will they take a more hands off approach? Ultimately they have the final say.

Lastly, Mitchell’s voice also holds a lot of weight. Or if he’s not vocal, his contentment certainly does. His extension hasn’t even started, but this is the NBA, and the whole organization should already be focused on building around Donovan and working toward that third contract. It’s unclear how much (if at all) Donovan is involved with personnel decisions, but he is in his prime and the iron is hot. The team is ready to compete now. If ownership or the front office decides a slight step backward is needed for ultimate championship contention, Mitchell’s feelings should be heavily considered.

What can the Jazz do?

Regardless of what the powers in the organization want, the options may be limited. There are several high-level paths:

Run it back, improve around the margins

I tend to think the best chance of success it to give this group another shot, with some upgrades around the edges. Yes, this team has flaws, and they faced the team best equipped to exploit them. But every team has flaws. This season’s Jazz just finished with the best record in the league. If they break things up now there will always be the “what if they were healthy” question.

They can address the perimeter defense issue on the margins, but it will take some luck. The Suns got Torrey Craig for cash considerations. The Grizzlies drafted Desmond Bane with the 30th pick. The Clippers got Nicolas Batum on the minimum. They also found key contributors in Terrance Mann, a second-round pick, and Reggie Jackson, a buyout signing last season who re-upped with L.A. at the minimum.

The Jazz have been less successful finding such gems this season. Ersan Ilyasova and Matt Thomas did not help their perimeter defense or contribute in the playoffs. We’ve yet to see Udoka Azubuike play much, but many criticize passing on Bane or other wings like Jaden McDaniels who were available with the pick. Utah did not use their bi-annual exception in either of the past two offseasons.

The Jazz have similar tools now: their 30th pick in the draft, some version of the mid-level exception¹, possibly their bi-annual exception², and veteran minimum contracts.

If Conley is re-signed, spending additional money on exceptions will be costly. But they could use as many swings at the ball as they can get. Finding a two-way wing is difficult, but the Jazz could focus on finding an athletic defender and hope that a corner three can be developed or improved. They could take three or four shots at such a player this offseason without making a major move.

Run it back, but with a moderate trade

At the last trade deadline it felt like the team was complete. The top eight rotation players were rock solid. Now that is a little less certain. With the run-it-back approach, Mitchell, Gobert, and Conley are the core. O’Neale has such a unique skillset on the team that he feels essential too. That leaves Bogdanovic, Ingles, Derrick Favors, and Jordan Clarkson. All are immensely popular and played important roles during the regular season. It would be painful to trade any of them. But if the Jazz feel the need for a bigger change, it probably means moving one of these players.

Bogdanovic’s and Ingles’ ages — they are 32 and 33, respectively — likely limits their trade market to teams in a win-now mindset. Bojan was one of the biggest free agency signing in Utah’s history, and his shooting ability is big part of Utah’s identity. Ingles will turn 34 before next season and is on the last year of his deal. He’s also a Jazz lifer and it would be gut-wrenching to see him leave in any other way besides retirement. That said, every team wants shooting. I don’t think they’re off the table.

Favors is probably not going to get you a 3-and-D player. There’s hope that he comes back next season healthy and rejuvenated.

Clarkson is young and coming off a career year. He probably brings back the most value. His scoring off the bench won Utah games this season, and he’s a beloved teammate. Quin Snyder allowed him to freelance, but did his shot creation sometimes take the Jazz too far out of their offense? Would a defensive-oriented player serve the team’s needs better? That’s something the Jazz will have to consider as Clarkson’s trade value, at 29 and coming off an 18-ppg season, is the highest of this bunch.

If the Jazz find a move they like, they could package the rights to their 30th pick and try to find a starter- or near-starter-level player. Is that a player in the tier of Josh Richardson or Justin Holiday? Can the nab someone of the calibre of Kyle Anderson or better? We’ll explore the possibilities in more detail later.

Sign & trade Conley

If they’re willing to pay, and Conley wants to return, the Jazz should absolutely bring him back. We can debate whether Mitchell is ready to be the primary point guard, or whether having such a small backcourt is ideal, but if Conley leaves, the Jazz don’t get to spend his salary elsewhere³. It’s essentially a net loss in terms of talent and assets. And all that aside, the Jazz were really good with Conley, plain and simple. Yes, his age and health are long-term concerns. But if the primary goal is short-term success, re-signing Conley is the clearest path.

Now, Conley may choose to sign elsewhere, and those debates become moot. He has a right to explore options, but luckily Utah has an advantage if Mike is weighing opportunities. With Bird rights, the Jazz can pay whatever price they’re willing to pay to keep him.

If Conley does choose to leave, the Jazz can hope for a sign-and-trade to recoup value. They hoped for this when Gordon Hayward left, but it’s easier said than done. If Conley doesn’t sign in Utah, he’s likely to join a contender. Those contenders would either need to sign him at below market value with the mid-level exception, in which case a sign-and-trade won’t make sense. Or, they’ll need to do a sign-and-trade, but the returning assets would be of less interest to the Jazz, who also want to contend.

If a sign-and-trade becomes feasible, Utah would be looking for both defense and replacement ball-handing. Any return would surely be a lesser talent, but perhaps a better fit around Donovan. The Boston Celtics just traded Kemba Walker. Would they part with Marcus Smart in a sign-and-trade? Many motivations would have to align, but would a double sign-and-trade for Lonzo Ball work out? Ball is a 6’6″ guard who can knock down 3s, pass the ball, and disrupt passing lanes. Perhaps the apex of a non-star complimentary guard to Donovan would be Malcolm Brogdon. Conley has roots to Indiana and there were trade rumors before Utah acquired him. All of these have more reasons to not work, but they’re worth exploring if Conley doesn’t return.

Lose Conley

Which leads us to the scenario where Conley leaves and the Jazz don’t do a sign-and-trade. At that point they’d have access to a larger mid-level exception, as well as the bi-annual. They wouldn’t be facing as big of a tax bill, so using all of their exceptions becomes more palatable. But they’d at least need a back up point guard in addition to the perimeter defense upgrades we’ve been talking about.

The available free agent point guards are not promising. It also puts a lot of pressure on Mitchell, who to be fair, could be ready to carry the load. If you want the Jazz to contend in the next few years, hope that the Jazz keep Conley.

Make drastic changes

While I believe in both Conley and Gobert, perhaps others in the organization see a ceiling on the current core and decide to reshape the team around Mitchell. He’s young and at the beginning of his extension — some might see the best plan is to take a step back now, and build for a few years down the road. While the current team is very good, an argument could be made that it’s not quite there and there’s a ceiling on its postseason potential.

If such a voice prevails, that could mean breaking up the core in various degrees of severity: trading more than one rotation player from the Ingles/Clarkson/Bogdanovic/Favors group; signing-and-trading Conley; or even trading Gobert. The idea would be to give Donovan the ball as much as he wants, and then surround him with versatile players that can shoot and defend. The Rockets tried this with James Harden, and may have succeeded if they didn’t coincide with the Warriors’ prime. We can talk about whether this approach is ideal, but the Jazz don’t have the assets to bring back more talented players — especially if your outgoing players are a traditional defensive center or a 33-year old small point guard. At best they can hope for a lateral talent move, but even that is iffy given the circumstances.

Building a contender usually requires exhausting assets and relying on players in their 30s. It’s extremely difficult to build a contending team that can sustain a balanced roster structure year-over-year. This Jazz team is near the top of their arc for contention, so reshaping the team likely means accelerating down the arc with the hopes of reaching higher later. It’s a risk. And this team feels close enough that making a drastic seems premature.

The Jazz could make a drastic move in the other direction, shoveling all assets for a talent upgrade. They can mortgage the future by trading far-off picks and pick swaps like other contenders have done. But this requires the right opportunity, and a lot of other teams have better offers. It’s also very risky, because failure could mean eventually losing Mitchell and having no draft picks to rebuild with.

Next steps

It will be an interesting summer. The Jazz could keep Conley, nail the draft, and lure a high-value vet. Or find a diamond-in-the-rough and develop him into a rotation player. With another leap from Mitchell they’re back in this. Or, things could go south and the path to a title becomes much steeper. But there are reasons to be hopeful. This team just had a historic offensive season, and managed a league-best defense (per Cleaning the Glass) despite the lack of perimeter defense.

Many championship teams face a few years of heartache before getting over the hump. Utah could be right there.