Mock Offseason Part 1: More Mountain Mike?

Conley and the Jazz had a 1-3 week. (Joe Murphy via espn.com)

The NBA can entertain in a myriad of ways. Some are interested in the personal lives of players, sleuthing Instagram and following the drama. Some played basketball themselves and appreciate the X’s and O’s. Others enjoy the camaraderie and community that comes with fandom, whether that’s shared geographically or online. And some just like watching the game.

There’s another subset that I can identify with: the nerdy corner of fandom that reads about mid-level exceptions and fiddles with salary cap spreadsheets. There’s a game behind the game that involves negotiation, timing, and supply and demand. For some this can be more entertaining than the actual game played on the court — not unlike war-game enthusiasts who spend all their time painting and assembling models but rarely get them to the table. (While I’m on the topic, I suppose it’s no surprise that I also find dry-themed board games about economics fun.)

So yeah, I’m talking about the type of fans that finds a good chunk of their entertainment from being an armchair general manager. If you’re reading this article you may be one of us. To be clear, I’m not an armchair general manager because I think I would do a better job — that is not the case despite occasional bemoaning like “what was Dennis thinking drafting a center?”. I realize there’s a layer of knowledge only the front office has access to and there are real limitations ESPN’s trade machine doesn’t account for. Mainly it’s just fun. Team building is an endlessly changing puzzle that’s never truly solved.

With that preamble out of the way, let’s put on the GM hat and mock out some potential scenarios for this offseason.

The Plan

A few factors will drive what the Jazz want to and can do this offseason. I’ve outlined those earlier. Two of the biggest are: 1) does Mike Conley stay, which comes down to what Conley wants and whether the Jazz are willing to spend what it takes, 2) how deep into the tax is ownership willing to go? These are difficult questions to answer. The Athletic’s Tony Jones — one of the most reliable sources for front office news — said this:

“I know the Jazz want to get better and are all-in on trying to put themselves in a position to win a championship next season. I know that they will be aggressive in pursuit of that goal.”

And: “There’s zero discussion of taking a step back. The Jazz have a championship window that is currently open, and they are trying to win a championship next season.”

And: “The Jazz are all-in on signing Conley.”

Read into that as you will. I’m going to operate under the assumption that the Jazz will do whatever they can to keep Conley and that implies a willingness to sign a huge luxury tax check.

But everyone has a limit, and it’s unclear what that will be. If Conley costs $25 million per year instead of the $20 million is that too much? Will the Jazz re-sign Conley on condition that they can shed salary elsewhere, like a Derrick Favors into cap space trade? If the Jazz re-sign Conley, are they then hesitant to use their mid-level exception or fill all 15 roster spots?

Because this is an exercise of fun, I’m going to lean toward spending more money. Spending billionaire’s money is easy to do, and I want to explore more ideal situations for the Jazz. But there’s the caveat that budget concerns will likely play a part in reality.

The Needs

The easy answer to what the Jazz need is: long, athletic wings that can shoot and defend multiple positions. This also happens to be the most sought-after player archetype in the league. The Jazz are not going to find a do-it-all star wing like Jaylen Brown or Paul George. But they will look for lesser versions that can help with perimeter defense while not killing their spacing.

It’s possible to find these guys on the margins. A few examples:

• The Suns got Torrey Craig for basically nothing. In the playoffs he only played 12 minutes per game, but he played important defensive minutes while shooting 40% from three.
• The Bucks traded a first round pick for PJ Tucker. He played 30 minutes per game and critical defense, most notably against Kevin Durant. He only shot 32% from three, but his reputation as a corner specialist allowed the offense to run as usual.
• The Clippers signed Nic Batum with a veterans minimum contract. While he’s not a lockdown 1-on-1 defender, Batum did a little bit of everything for the Clippers, playing near-starter minutes.

Finding an impact low-cost wing takes some luck. Craig’s shot was shaky enough that the World Champion Bucks were willing to let him go. PJ Tucker is 35 and looked completely uninterested in Houston. Batum was considered washed before his buyout. Any of those moves could’ve flamed out.

That’s why as armchair general manager I want to take as many cracks at bat as I can. The Jazz have tools to add a handful of wings to the roster in the hope that at least one of them turns into a playoff contributor.

Beyond that, the Jazz could use a backup point guard. Yes, the Jazz already have Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, and presumably Mike Conley; this is my reasoning:

1. History has shown that Conley will miss games for injuries or rest. The hamstring could easily flare up.

2. Ingles is a fantastic player, but has seen struggles in the last two playoffs. The reason may be that he’s been asked to do so much when injuries hit. I’d like to keep turning-age-34 Ingles well rested and add another ball-handler so Ingles can remain a secondary distributor.

3. In the Clippers series the Jazz needed one more guy with a little zip. With Conley’s hamstring and Mitchell’s ankle injures, the team lacked another guy who could break the paint. On the flip side, Los Angeles had that guy in Reggie Jackson, and Utah couldn’t stop him.

So once wings are addressed, a more traditional backup point guard would be a nice-to-have, but not something worth spending a lot of resources on. A veteran minimum guy would be fine.

If the Jazz make a bigger move like trading Favors or losing Conley then obviously other needs will arise.

The Scenarios

In my earlier piece I summarized scenarios this offseason could have:

1. Run it back, improve around the margins

2. Run it back, but with a moderate trade

3. Sign & trade Conley

4. Lose Conley

5. Make drastic changes

We’ll run these scenarios, with more focus on the first one. This won’t be an exhaustive exercise, so let’s look at some of the more important pieces to work with:

• Key free agents: Conley and Georges Niang
• Key trade pieces: Bojan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson, Ingles, Favors, rights to their 2021 1st round pick (after he’s drafted), 2026 or 2027 first round pick
• Player acquisition tools: $5.9 million taxpayer mid-level exception, veteran minimum exceptions, $5 million trade exception

Scenario 1: Optimistic, but realistic (no trades version)

I’m going to start with a scenario where things break right for the Jazz, while also being as reasonable as I can. Basically a mix of what I want to happen and what I expect to happen.

This starts with the Jazz re-signing Mike Conley for around $20 million in the first year. Conley’s price will depend a lot on the market and where other point guard dominos like Kyle Lowry fall. I expect several teams to chase Conley and it only takes one other offer to drive up his price. Beyond the teams with money, contenders may try to tempt him to take the mid-level. Most projections show Conley getting between $15–25 million per year. Generally the Jazz end up paying a more than I expect. I’m predicting the Jazz offer more years (three instead of two) to get the annual salary a lower. Something like three years and $65 million, at $20 million in the first year is my call in this scenario.

The Jazz cut ties with Matt Thomas and Juwan Morgan. Both have potential, but the Jazz need different contributions and roster spots. I could go either way with Georges Niang. He had a very solid regular season, spacing the floor and defending much better. Count me in as Niang believer even after a lackluster postseason. I’d be happy if the Jazz brought him back. In this scenario the Jazz don’t bring him back for a few reasons: 1) he may have priced himself out of Utah’s budget, 2) the Jazz need minutes to offer more defensive-oriented wings, and 3) the Jazz prioritize proven playoff track records and perimeter defense over Niang’s floor spacing. That said, losing Georges would be a sad thing — he’s a great dude and has earned a place in this league.

Jarrell Brantley or Trent Forrest both have potential, but the Jazz already have enough young talent to develop in Elijah Hughes, Udoka Azuibuke, and their 2021 first round pick. There’s also Miye Oni, who in this scenario the Jazz keep as one of their wing options. One area the Jazz could’ve addressed differently last season was emphasizing veterans over young talent at the end of their roster. Yes, they brought in Ersan Ilyasova and Matt Thomas, but neither contributed in the playoffs. None of the other young guys were able to help much when injuries hit the Jazz. In contrast, we saw Frank Kaminsky and the afore-mentioned Craig and Tucker play valuable minutes in the Finals. The Jazz could prioritize more proven talent while still maintaining some youth development.

This leaves the roster at:

• Mike Conley, Joe Ingles
• Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson, Elijah Hughes
• Royce O’Neale, Miye Oni
• Bojan Bogdanovic
• Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Udoka Azubuike

Eleven roster spots. The Jazz need to fill at least two more, but could fill up to four. One of those will be their first round pick. From this depth chart they need at least one wing and potentially a break-in-case-of-emergency point guard.

The biggest need is a backup power forward who will replace Niang’s minutes. The best tool is their taxpayer mid-level exception. Salt City Hoops will look more in depth at options for this player, but a few ideas are: Nic Batum, Rudy Gay, and Otto Porter Jr. Any of those could end up earning more than the available $5.9 million, but the Jazz are a contender and could lure a veteran chasing a ring like the did with Joe Johnson. Right now I’ll pick Rudy Gay, whose size would be a great fit for this roster.

The Jazz draft an athletic wing with their first round pick to counter-balance Gay’s age. I’m lacking in the draft department, so look to the experts and future coverage for more specific options. From my limited knowledge there are a handful of wings with length in Utah’s range. If a solid point guard slips to 30 I would be okay with that pick as well.

That brings Utah to the required 13 roster spots and an already massive luxury tax bill. I’m going to push it a little further — if the Jazz are truly all-in, they could use more bite at the apple and more veteran presence. Then they can leave their 15th roster spot open for some tax relief or a chance to add another player later in the season depending on how things pan out.

The Jazz could use their $5 million trade exception (which again, Salt City Hoops will explore later), but since they’re already spending so much they elect to use a veteran exception. This could be another wing defender like Trevor Ariza or Torrey Craig, or a journeyman point guard like Raul Neto. I’ll go with Neto, who is a fan favorite and coming off a career year. But I’m tempted to just use this one more wing and resolve the point guard situation later with the last roster spot if needed.

So the final roster is:

• Mike Conley, Joe Ingles, Raul Neto
• Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson, Elijah Hughes
• Royce O’Neale, Miye Oni, 1st round pick
• Bojan Bogdanovic, Rudy Gay
• Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Udoka Azubuike

Gay, the drafted rookie, and a more developed Oni shore up the perimeter defense issues. The hope is that at least two of these are able to contribute significant minutes in the playoffs. Neto provides insurance and another option to run the pick and roll so that Ingles is fresh come playoff time.

Utah retains flexibility. They can make a trade, or use their final roster spot later in the season if needed. If disaster strikes, they can try to shed money at the trade deadline.

This feels like a more playoff-ready team. The cost? Around $160 million in salary, resulting in close to a $60 million tax check. But hey, it’s not coming out of my bank account.

Part 2

While this mock is easier to pull off, things get much more complicated if the Jazz make a trade or don’t keep Conley. The next part will come shortly after the draft — we’ll see who the Jazz pick and whether they make a move, and adjust accordingly. We’ll look at scenarios where the Jazz make a minor or major trade, and how a team without Conley might look. Stay tuned.