Salt City Seven: What We Know So Far, Learning Curves & More

Hassan Whiteside and the Jazz have started the year off with some encouraging early results. (via utahjazz.com)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

There’s not a lot we know about the Jazz that we didn’t know this time last week. After just two games — both against projected lottery teams, no less — it’s hard to glean too much from the first few days of Utah’s 2020-21 season.

But here are five things we can already tell.

• Quin Snyder is planning to keep his rotation from last season, giving Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley Jr. an early rest.

It was clear even in the preseason that this was the plan, but seeing the Jazz coach deploy the strategy in games that matter cements it.

This was a huge advantage to the Jazz last season, as it gave the starting unit a few minutes to dominate together (+11.2 per 100 possessions) before a Donovan Mitchell-led hybrid unit held the torch for the few minutes (+8.3). The real payoff came when Gobert and Conley returned for their second stints of each half to smash opposing benches. The most used Gobert-Conley hybrid lineup was +14.4 per 100 possessions, the second best high-possession fivesome in the entire NBA last season, per Cleaning the Glass. But all variations of that lineup — with Gobert & Conley on while Mitchell rested — were an obscene +22.4.

Snyder wants to tap into that major competitive advantage yet again, which is why Gobert and Conley still appear in three stints per half. So far, it’s mostly working, outside of one rough 0-12 stretch on Friday when Joe Ingles’ ejection forced Snyder to improvise on the fly. We also haven’t seen this group fully deployed yet, as Rudy Gay figures to slot into many of those lineup variations.

• Mitchell has the greenest of lights… all over the court.

Utah’s fifth-year star is going to have the ball in his hands a lot. So far, the numbers on possession time, drives and passes aren’t that different between him and Conley, but anecdotally, it feels like Mitchell has been the primary ballhandler on most possessions when the two have been on the court together.

And so far, he has not been afraid to sling threes from anywhere. He’s taken 12 attempts from deep per game — up from 7.2 in his first four seasons. And so far, exactly half of his threes have been from 26 feet or farther out, per tracking cameras.

• Bojan Bogdanovic’s scoring is still going to be needed.

One of the questions I asked Ken Clayton in our kick-off podcast was when and how Bogdanovic would eat now that Utah’s quartet of scoring/facilitating guards is back to full health.

Turns out, it wasn’t anything to worry about. Bogey’s usage rate is just a tick higher than Conley’s, behind only Mitchell and Jordan Clarkson among rotation regulars. What’s more, he has the best efficiency of any of Utah’s high-usage guys, and that’s despite the fact that his 3-point shot has been a little off to start the year.

The Jazz could probably stand to invite him to drive against smaller guys less often, but if you think he’s a turnover machine in that situation, you should know that so far 12.5% of his drives have ended in giveaways. That’s about the same as Clarkson (11.1%) and much less than Mitchell (27.5%). His proclivity to turn the ball over on drives was also a bit overstated last season; he coughed it up on 7.9% of his drives, right in the range of Utah’s other ball handlers. (Except Conley, who just rarely gives it up as a driver.) 

• Miye Oni and Jared Butler are going to jostle back and forth for the role of next guard/small wing after the main rotation guys.

Snyder made a point to carve the rookie out a few minutes alongside the rotation guys in the opener, but it was Oni who got called into the lineup when Ingles was tossed (after the most passive flagrant-2 foul in league history) on Friday night. That’s the first indication that the specific rotation role of 5th guard in a 4-guard rotation might not be totally decided yet. One of those two will be the “on deck” guard who will be called into action any time a player sits, and it’s not really clear yet which. Butler looked pretty tight in his NBA debut, but then Oni got behind his guy a few times during a 12-0 Kings run. This is likely one rotation battle that will continue throughout the year, as both guys bring very different things.

Meanwhile, Eric Paschall has clearly established himself as the big/wing who is on deck to soak up minutes when a large bodied teammate sits. He’s filling in for the injured Gay, and you can already see how nice it is for Utah to have a bit more size at the backup four spot.

• This team is going to let it fly from outside.

Other than the screen-and-roll bigs, only Bogey has taken fewer than half his shots from deep. Everybody else is taking a boatload of threes. As a team, Utah has taken a higher percentage of their non-garbage time shots from outside than any team in the league early on — which wouldn’t be all that convincing after two games, except that it’s a continuation of last year’s trend.

To some degree, the Jazz are OK letting the defense decide how many threes they take. They’d be just as fine getting the ball inside the restricted area to Gobert (and even his new backup, Hassan Whiteside) on every play. But because teams spend a lot of mental energy trying to prevent those interior passes, outside shooters will have many opportunities. And so far, they’re not being any more shy about taking those shots than they were a season ago.

In their own words

“Coach Q got a playbook the size of a dictionary!”

-Whiteside, via the Tribune’s Eric Walden¹

One of the Jazz’s veteran addition proffers this line as a good reminder of why we should collectively chill out on analyzing anything too closely early on; these guys are still figuring out their roles in a system that is, in a word, complex. The learning curve can be particularly steep in Utah, which is one reason the club values continuity more than some others. It took Conley nearly a full season before he looked and felt really comfortable, and we’ve heard similar things from a number of guys — even savvy veterans who joined the Jazz after being around the block a time or two.

The veteran big man continued: “I don’t know how he keeps that all in his head. He’s got a play for everything!”

That said, Whiteside actually acquitted himself quite well in his first week as a Jazzman. It’s way too early to care about lineup data, but the fact that all Whiteside lineups were a combined +37.3 per 100 possessions outside of garbage time in Utah’s two games is at least a good start.

In particular, keep an eye on the grouping of Whiteside with Mitchell, Clarkson, Bogdanovic and Royce O’Neale. That’s the group (with Derrick Favors instead of Whiteside, obviously) that was +8.3 last season with Mitchell as the lone All-Star, and the success of that specific group is a huge part of how Snyder could get away with his gambit of pulling Gobert and Conley early so he could go back to them against opposing subs. That’s going to be a really important lineup in terms of making the overall rotation hold up.

So far, that group with Whiteside in the departed Favors’ spot is +12.6 in a not-totally-insignificant 25 possessions. Again, it’s way too early to think there’s anything predictive in that number, but it’s a nice start.

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

20+

Gobert is now the only Jazz player to have consecutive 20-rebound games more than once in his career². If he pulls in 20 against the Nuggets, he would be the first Jazz player to complete a streak of three in a row above that threshold, and the first in the entire NBA since 2019 (Clint Capela, 5 straight). That will be harder in a game where he’s also tasked with guarding Nikola Jokic in space, but we’ll keep an eye on it.

22nd

The Jazz got to Sunday night with the league’s best point differential despite the fact that the main staple of their offense hasn’t been working great so far. Usually a prolific 3-point shooting team, Utah has opened the season with the ninth worst 3-point shooting percentage, 33.7%. One has to imagine that figure will correct itself at some point on a roster with this much shooting talent.

15.2

It feels early on like the Jazz are giving guys a bit more freedom to be aggressive on defense. Their 10.0 steals per game rank sixth highest in the league. Because of their very conservative defensive style, steals haven’t been a major focus for them, and it’s hard to argue with the end result as a perennially elite defensive team. But there are some easy ones to be had, so it will be interesting to monitor this and see if there has been a philosophy change when it comes to allowing some defensive risks. Their defensive TOV% has gone from 30th last year to 12th here in the early going, with more than 15% of opponent possessions ending in a turnover.

.210

It will be interesting to track how new interpretations on fouls against shooters may impact Utah’s guard corps. Conley, Mitchell, Bogey, Ingles are all trending significantly below last year’s FTr, a measure of free throws attempted per field goal try. (The lone exception in Clarkson, but he’s only up slightly.) As a team, their FTr has dropped from .244 to .210, which isn’t massive, but something to keep an eye on. 

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

Eventually this section will feature a lot more prominently in our weekly survey of all things Jazz, with seeding race updates and detailed graphics. For now, it’s a little silly to even think about the playoff race with teams just 2-3 games in, so for this week we’ll simply take a look at who might be taking predictive models a little bit by surprise early on.

• The Jazz’s playoff odds, of course, haven’t moved a lot. At 2-0, they’ve mostly done what they were supposed to do against two younger teams. Prior to the season, 538 had them at 95% playoff odds and 54 projected wins, now they’re showing 97% and 55.
• Similarly, the Mavs, Clippers, Kings, Rockets and Thunder are still within 0-2% of their initial playoff odds.
• The confidence of 538’s model has dropped significantly when it comes to the 0-3 Pelicans (from 79% playoff odds to 59%) and the 1-2 Lakers (from 49% to 39%). The Suns dropped a little after their 1-2 start (95% to 90%), but still project as a 50-win team. The Spurs have seen a similar drop, from 21% to 16%.
• The biggest risers so far are the Warriors, whose suddenly very competent bench has them off to a 3-0 start. They were considered a 22% longshot before the season, now 538 has them at 37% to make the playoffs. The Grizzlies are also up significantly, from 59% to 68%, and the Nuggets have risen to near-lock status (88% to 95%). The Blazers are up slightly (82% to 85%).
• In the East, the big droppers in playoff odds are the Raptors (down 11%) and Celtics (down 9%), while the Hornets (up 18%) and Bulls (up 8%) have climbed.

None of this really matters yet. While 538’s model is a bit more stable early on in the season because it’s based on player metrics that have a more solid baseline as opposed to limited team outcomes, the model is still learning along with the rest of us. We don’t know yet which individual guys have made real, sustainable jumps this season, or which player combinations might unlock something for their team that goes beyond the sum of a bunch of parts.  

Plenty of teams have fooled us with abnormally good or bad starts, which is in fact where we’ll focus this section next week.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Quick refresher for the uninitiated:

After every Jazz win, I ask the Twitter masses which Jazz participant most deserves the symbolic recognition of our imaginary game ball. If you’ve been to the Basketball Hall of Fame, you know that game ball honors are usually reserved for crazy stat lines and historic performances, so more often than not, the conversation will focus around who was the real MVP of that game. Occasionally, though, a unique narrative, big moment or major milestone might sway us to award the rock for other reasons. But just know that more often, I’ll insist that game ball is really about who carried the team, not about “X factor” or “nice spark off the bench” or “random short outburst.”

Those would be fun awards to give out, too, but this award is 60% a question of who was the best guy on the floor, 40% about whose contributions/moments will come to mind most readily when we think back on that particular game a month or two later.

Jazz 107, Thunder 86: Rudy Gobert. Gobert’s early dominance is why the Jazz had a big cushion to begin with. Bogdanovic (22) and Clarkson (18) carried the scoring load, and Mitchell’s dam was bound to break after a sloppy start — he had a 12-point third. But Gobert dominated. He made his first five shots on the way to a 16-and-21 double-double, and he and Mitchell shared a +20 rating for the game. OKC managed just 70.2 points per 100 halfcourt possessions, largely because of Gobert’s paint deterrence (and also a really active night from Mitchell on that end).

Jazz 110, Kings 101: Rudy Gobert. I actually had Mitchell penciled in here (27-5-4 and a team-best +18), but the Twitter vote was so resoundingly in Gobert’s favor that you actually talked me into letting the big fella repeat. The reality is that nobody had a perfect case in this sloppy game. Bogdanovic hit the dagger, but didn’t have his best night overall. Clarkson sparked a nice late stretch, but was really inefficient. There’s actually a really solid case for Hassan Whiteside, but I just finished telling you this isn’t a “nice spark” award, and it’s hard to give the game ball to someone who played under 16 minutes. Especially when, on a per-minute basis, he and Gobert did roughly the same thing. Gobert had 17-20-2-2 in 32 minutes and scored 2.4 points per shot. Project Whiteside’s stats to Gobert’s exact minutes and seconds and he had the equivalent of 16-18-2-2 and 2.0 points per shot. Gobert’s bad first-half +/- also might have been a function of one really bad lineup that wouldn’t have ever seen the court if not for Joe Ingles’ weird ejection, and his close was so dominant — on both ends, and even on the free throw line — to kind of wash out that memory. Ultimately, I’d be fine with either Gobert or Mitchell as the choice here, but you all told me in no uncertain terms that it was Rudy. 

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

The Jazz had a lighter opening week than most. They’ll make up for it with a 4-games-in-6-nights spurt that features games in four different states.

Tuesday 10/26, Jazz vs. Nuggets: Oh yeah. Awesome that the Jazz don’t have to wait long for a real test against another Western Conference power. Utah and Denver are #1 and #2 in the league in the combined total of their players’ 2020-21 Wins Above Replacement, one admittedly rudimentary way I often gauge macro roster quality at the start of a season. For Denver, that largely comes down to the reigning MVP. Jokic is off to a stellar start, averaging 30 and 15 (rounded up) on an impressive .697 true shooting. Monte Morris has been starting in place of the injured Jamal Murray, and so far Denver’s starting lineup is outscoring teams by 13.5 points per 100 possessions.

Thursday 10/28, Jazz @ Rockets: Houston has a lot of interesting youth, including rookie Jalen Green, who just dropped 30 in a Sunday home loss to the Celtics. But so far it’s veteran Christian Wood leading the way with 22-and-11 averages. Kevin Porter Jr. has made 9 of his first 22 attempted threes this season (41%), which is important growth for a guy who is already pretty dynamic with the ball in his hands. However, so far he has more turnovers than assists. In all, this is a team that is pretty obviously in rebuilding mode and the Jazz will be favored in Houston. 

Saturday 10/30, Jazz @ Bulls: Zach LaVine has been unconscious early on for the 3-0 Bulls, averaging nearly 27 a game on 52-45-94 shooting splits. He and the other four high-minute Bulls all have double-digit positive net ratings after three games, although those three contests have all come against projected lottery teams. The Bulls will see their level of competition gradually rise this week as they face the Raptors and Knicks before their measuring-stick showdown with the Jazz. Former Jazzmen Tony Bradley and Matt Thomas are out of the rotation, so we likely won’t see them unless the game enters blowout territory in one direction or the other.

Sunday 10/31, Jazz @ Bucks: Speaking of measuring sticks, there’s no better test than facing the champs, who have looked pretty impressive so far when they’ve been whole. They ran away from the Nets and later scored a double-digit road win in San Antonio. In between those two, they lost in Miami in a game where they rested several key players. Sunday will be each team’s first back-to-back of the season, but in both cases with minimal travel (Milwaukee will be at home for both games, and the Jazz have to cover just 92 miles to arrive from Chicago), so we’ll see how both squads may plan to manage rest, minutes and workloads in that situation. Jazz draftee Grayson Allen is starting for Milwaukee, while former Jazz guard George Hill comes off the bench, and Rodney Hood is a deep reserve who has yet to see regular season action. 

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

When an NBA legend mentions one of Salt City Hoops’ longest-running contributors by name, it’s likely to get our attention. That’s even more true when said legend is a part owner of the Jazz and he’s aligning with David J. Smith’s premise about this being an unbelievably fun time to follow the Jazz.

That’s a fact David but here we are… #Takenote https://t.co/ZWhZd9vAIC

— DWade (@DwyaneWade) October 21, 2021

Dwyane Wade, in case you can’t tell, is an involved part owner. And not just when the cameras are on him. Here he is, in his free time, interacting with Jazz fans about the way the franchise is unexpectedly rocketing up the cool points ranking.

Two down, 80 to go! We’ll be back with more next week.