Salt City Seven: Another Altered Season, Clutch Conley & More

December 27th, 2021 | by Dan Clayton

Conley had a strong week as the Jazz went 3-0 against some decimated teams. (Trent Nelson via sltrib.com)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

Keep that roster guide handy; you’re going to learn a lot of new names during NBA games this season.

After two consecutive seasons that looked very different as a result of the global pandemic, this year was designed to restore some normalcy to both the NBA calendar and the on-court product. So far, that has hardly been the case. For evidence, look no further than the Jazz’s past week.

The Jazz enjoyed a 3-0 week, but all three games looked very different as a result of the league’s health and safety protocols. Charlotte came to Salt Lake City on Monday down just one key rotation player because of COVID mitigation rules1, but Minnesota and Dallas brought absolutely decimated rosters to town. Seven Timberwolves were unable to play in Utah, including core players like Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, and an eighth has since joined them on the COVID-related inactive list. And Dallas was down nine players — seven due to health and safety protocols, including all-league talent Luka Doncic.

Five of the 11 players who appeared for the Mavs in that Christmas night affair were players they had signed to replacement contracts just days earlier.

That’s happening all around the league. A mind-boggling 60 players have already signed 10-day replacement contracts, and this month has already broken the record for the most unique NBA players to appear in games in a caldendar month, still with five nights to go. In Atlanta, a COVID replacement player just entered the COVID protocols himself. The league is trying to MacGyver their way through the season with a chewing gum wrapper and some duct tape as they try to avoid another stoppage, but it’s obvious that the highly transmissible Omicron variant — which experts say accounts for nearly three-fourths of new U.S. coronavirus cases — is tearing through the NBA.

This is the Jazz’s and the NBA’s reality for now. Even as the Jazz look out across this week’s slate, all of their next four opponents are already almost guaranteed to be without key players due to health and safety measures. Top-scoring Spur DeJounte Murray is in protocols, as are seven Portland Trail Blazers, the Jazz’s Wednesday opponent. D’Angelo Russell is now the eighth Timberwolf in protocols ahead of Friday’s Jazz-Wolves rematch, and DPOY candidate Draymond Green is one of five Warriors who could miss what ought to have been a major matchup on Saturday between Western Conference teams with title aspirations.

(The Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell for the next two as he rests a back strain; they currently have nobody in COVID-19 protocols, but honestly, it’s only a matter of time before they do.)

That obviously makes this a weird time to try to make sense of basketball games. For two straight games, the Jazz faced a starting unit that had literally never played a second of basketball together before the ball went up at center circle. That context might make some of these games feel a little hollow. It also probably, in a weird way, makes those 0pponents much harder to plan for.

The Jazz enter each game with a specific game plan that is tailored to that opponent. They assign games out to an assistant coach well in advance, and that assistant looks and film and data to determine the best way to approach that game. They also have some idea of how that team is going to try to guard them, so they can start to prepare their players well in advance for how to counter certain defensive gambits. Then they spend practices and/or game-day shootarounds walking players through those opponent-specific strategies.

When you play a team that has literally never fielded that specific combination of players before, how do you do that? The Jazz probably knew that Dallas would largely rely on Jalen Brunson’s creation ability and use Kristaps Porzingis as a roller and popper, but beyond that, they were playing a team with — pretty literally — no real identity. That meant there was nothing really to game plan toward, and they had to figure out what the Mavs were even going to do before they could figure out their own counters.

The result was pretty ugly, at least initially. The Jazz looked like they were thinking through every single action at the start of Saturday’s game, instead of playing instinctually and trusting the flow of the offense. Dallas toggled in and out of a zone and used strategies they wouldn’t usually employ in a Doncic-led affair. The Jazz struggled to suss that out and trailed by 16 early.

Eventually, though, they were able to figure out what Dallas was doing. Take this play for example:

Once the Jazz figured out that the bigs were going to hedge higher on Mitchell’s pick-and-roll actions and where the help was going to come from, they could start to script certain things as a counter. Notice how they run this play with the left corner completely empty. That’s because they had sniffed out the Maverick defense by now and knew that if Mitchell denied the screen, he would have just his own defender to beat. Dwight Powell was hedging too high on the other side of the pick to recover to Mitchell, Theo Pinson couldn’t commit to helping without leaving a 44% 3-point shooter, and there was no designated corner helper. It’s a brilliant bit of play-calling, but Quin Snyder and the Jazz could only script plays like this once they knew enough about how Dallas was going to play.

Even after they sniffed out the Mavs’ game plans and started to pick them apart, that game in particular was closer than you’d like it to be given the players who were (and weren’t) involved from the other clubhouse. But that’s just going to be what the NBA feels like for a while. Teams are going to be making it up as they go, and a lot of scouting reports are going to be essentially useless by the time tip-off time arrives.

That’s not to say it’s harder to face a team with no established identity than to go up against All-NBA talent. But in a league where preparation really matters, the Jazz have gone into multiple games this week with a diminished idea of how their opponent might try to approach the game on either end. Against Minnesota and Dallas specifically, they faced versions of those teams that literally didn’t exist before those games started.

That’s why it’s probably best not to get too caught up in the micro results, as hard as that is. As long as the overall quality markers are there — and they are2 — don’t get too lost in worrying about whether the Jazz should have won by 18 instead of 12, 12 instead of 10, or 10 instead of four. The Jazz can only play the team that’s in front of them, and they too are going to be improvising a little bit along the way.

For a while, at least, this is the new NBA.

In their own words

If you don’t believe me, take Mitchell’s word for it: facing a team without all the guys who define how they play is challenging in its own weird way.

“​Sometimes it’s a tougher game, to be honest, because you don’t really know what’s gonna happen. When Luka is out there you kind of know where it’s going.”

-Mitchell, as relayed by KSL.com’s Ryan Miller

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

138.3

If you want to be worried about something after watching the Jazz survive two close ones against decimated rosters, worry about this: the Jazz’s transition defense was really poor all week. Dating back to last Saturday, they’re allowing 138.3 points per 100 transition plays, a bottom five figure over that span. The Mavs and Wolves also averaged 113.8 points per 100 halfcourt possessions in those games, which is well worse than the Jazz’s usual set defense (88.8, 5th in the league). 

35+

Both the Jazz and Mavs shot 35 or more free throws in the Christmas game, marking the first time this season that both teams reached that mark in the same game. The refs must have either been working on commission or just really didn’t want the Christmas Day festivities to end.

+41.6

A lot has been made of Utah’s clutch woes this season, but they might actually be overstated, especially if you focus on Mike Conley. In clutch games where Conley appeared in the final five minutes, the Jazz are actually 8-4. Late in games with a margin within five points, the Jazz are actually +41.6 (per 100 posessions) with Conley on the court. He also has an 80.2% true shooting mark in clutch situations this year, best in the league among players with 18% clutch usage or better. So their “clutch woes” might really just be “Mike is sitting” woes.

14-6

Since the start of last season, the Jazz are 14-6 (a 57-win pace) in games Mitchell has missed. That’s applicable since he’s staying back on this next 2-game road trip. But don’t take that as a sign that they won’t miss him: dude has been on a tear over the last month, averaging 29.4 points the 5.0 assists since November 29.

17.1

Bojan Bogdanovic is quietly having his best shooting year of his 8-year career: 43.7% from three, and 59.5% eFG are both career marks. He’s been Utah’s most consistant secondary scorer, with double digits in 30 of his 32 games so far.

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

Again, the main thing that matters at present is the status of various playoff teams’ rosters as the NBA slogs through an Omicron outbreak that very well could define the season.

Let’s once again devote this space to checking on the health status of Western Conference teams currently in playoff or play-in position. In seeding order:

  • GSW: Five in H&S, including Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins. Klay Thompson nearing a return.
  • Phoenix: One starter (Jae Crowder) and one deep bench player (Elfrid Payton) in H&S, two bigs out indefinitely.
  • Utah: No players in H&S at present, but Mitchell will miss two games (back).
  • Memphis: Dillon Brooks and four bench guys are in H&S, 
  • LAC: Three in H&S including starters Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris Jr., plus Paul George to be shut down for 3-4 weeks, and Kawhi Leonard still out indefinitely.
  • Denver: Nobody is currently out *just* for H&S reasons, but four guys are out long term, including three usual starters.
  • LAL: Four (plus their coach) in H&S, and Anthony Davis will be out until sometime in mid to late January.
  • Dallas: As noted above, Doncic is one of six in H&S, and most are important pieces. Also, Willie Caulie-Stein has been out for a month.
  • Minnesota: Eight in H&S.
  • San Antonio: Only one in H&S, but it’s their best player: Murray. 

It’s a huge letdown that teams like Golden State and Phoenix may not be whole for upcoming matchups with the Jazz. Somehow the Jazz will have made it to 2022 before their first measuring stick games against those fellow top-3 seeds, and now those games may have a completely different tenor to them. 

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Let’s give out three more imaginary Wilsons, shall we?

Jazz 112, Hornets 102: Rudy Gobert. What’s weird about this one is that Gobert didn’t have a particularly good night protecting the rim and he wasn’t his usual can’t-miss self. His 4/10 night actually broke his NBA record streak of 64 straight games with 50% shooting from the floor. But how in the hell do we not give it to the guy who had 23 points, 21 boards and set a career for free throws on a 94% night from the line?! The only other serious candidate was Bogdanovic, who kept the Jazz afloat from three on a night the Jazz missed a silly percentage of wide open shots. O’Neale was another candidate with his 13-rebound night and good defense (Hornets shot a combined 4/16 with Royce on them). Oh, and Mitchell just quietly went out and added 21-6-6.

Jazz 128, Timbersolves 116: Mike Conley. Conley was excellent throughout (+22), but especially brilliant in putting this one away. Of the Jazz’s final 24 points, Conley scored or assisted on 18 of them. Things got a little dicey during his usual fourth quarter rest (the 13-point lead got trimmed to seven) and then he immediately checked back in and put things right: a 10-4 run got it right back to 13. That game-sealing mini-run included back-to-back Conley assists followed by back-to-back Conley threes. His line (17-4-6 on 7/10 shooting in 28 minutes) wasn’t quite as glitzy as Mitchell’s (28-5-7 on 10/20 shooting in 38 minutes), but this was one where you could definitely feel the effect of his steadying hand all over the game. Gobert also has a case with his eighth 20-10 game of the season (20 & 17, to be exact), Bogey had an awesome stretch in the third, and it was Joe Ingles’ best game in a while, even aside from the fun chatter with Minnesota’s Jake Layman.

Jazz 120, Mavs 116: Mike Conley. It was easy to see why Clarkson got love in the Twitter vote. His energy gave Utah a nice spark in the second half: he won some 50-50 battles the Jazz had been losing, chipped in a nice all-around line, and had a great steal-to-three sequence that put Utah back in front. But I often insist that Game Ball is bigger than a single spurt/spark, and I’m not sure how we give it to a guy who had 12 points on 13 shots when Mitchell, Conley and Bogdanovic all did what they did. Mitchell had 33-3-3 despite being hobbled, and is among the main reasons the Jazz were on TV on Christmas in the first place. Bogey had 25 points, including a dagger three, and the game-sealing rebound and free throws in the final minute. But I’m going Conley again. He captained most of that initial 22-6 run that got Utah back in it after a disastrous start, and then had big moments late like tying free throws, a steal and assist to Ingles right after, and then a tough floater that put the Jazz up 4 (Dallas would never get closer after that). He finished as inpredictable.com’s game MVP because of a combination of that early dominance and those clutch moments, and he finished with a 22-5-7 line.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

As referenced above, the league’s health and safety protocols are really going to drive a lot of what happens for the Jazz this week. Normal team style stats and league rankings won’t really matter this week, as the Jazz are going to see very different versions of all four of these teams:

Monday 12/27, Jazz @ Spurs: Murray’s absence will make a big difference. He’s not only the Spurs’ offensive engine with team-leading figures of 17.4 points, 8.8 assists and 25% usage, but he’s also a very disruptive defender with good lateral speed and length. He certainly bothered the Jazz in a 128-126 upset earlier this month, in which he had 16 points, 11 assists and two steals. Without him, expect a bigger playmaking load for Derrick White, and second-year guard Tre Jones may see more activity as a bench facilitator. Those two combined for 21 dimes as the Spurs smashed the Pistons on Sunday, and now they’ll face the Jazz on a back-to-back, but with no travel involved. The Spurs are 10-4 since Thanksgiving.

Wednesday 12/29, Jazz @ Blazers: Once again, health has defined Portland’s season. Their main five guys have only been available at the same time for 17 games, and they’re 9-8 in those ones. They’re 4-11 in all other games, though, and that’s relevant since CJ McCollum is still recuperating from a collapsed lung and Jusuf Nurkic and Robert Covington are currently sidelined due to protocols. The Blazers lost the only other meeting of the season by 22 despite having 80% of their usual starters healthy (Norm Powell was out). The Jazz will be without Mitchell this time, but Portland has still had a tough time making it work when one of their main guys is out.

Friday 12/31, Jazz vs. Timberwolves: The Wovles may be pesky, but they’re also streaky: they’re the only team in the association with multiple 4-game losing streaks AND multiple 4-game winning streaks. They’ve lost twice to the Jazz already, by an average margin of 22, but the chances of this one being competitive depend largely on which guys are still in protocols by New Year’s Eve. At present seven of their top 10 minute-getters are on the shelf, and those seven account for 83.3 combined points per game.

Saturday 1/1, Jazz vs. Warriors: Three of GSW’s five starters — Green, Wiggins and Jordan Poole — are likely to miss this one. But the Jazz will still have their hands full with MVP candidate Steph Curry, who’s averaging 34.8 points per game in his last four. Expect more action for Otto Porter, who’s coming off a season-high 19 points, and Gary Payton II has been something of a plus-minus wizard this year, playing efficiently in a limited role. 

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

I mean, if we’re honest, nothing was going to top this for the week in the “fun” category, right?

Believe it or not, here comes 2022. And some serious tests await, especially if COVID-riddled teams can get their rosters whole.

Comments are closed.

© 2024 Salt City Hoops. All Rights Reserved.