Salt City Seven: Jazz’s Versatility Tested, Unstoppable With Gobert, Mitchell’s Streak & More

January 3rd, 2022 | by Dan Clayton

The Jazz’s versatility was tested again on Saturday. (Isaac Hale via sltrib.com)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

On the whole, it was a good week for the Jazz. They won three games, including two by double digit margins. Then in their fourth game in six nights — at a rest disadvantage and against the league’s top team by record — they fought through early doldrums and were tied entering the final two minutes. It was objectively not a week to complain about: 

Let’s start the discussion there, because none of what follows is meant to sound like a “what’s wrong with the Jazz” sort of thing. They remain a team that can compete with anybody when healthy, and they have a real shot at going all the way.

BUT… Saturday evening’s loss to Golden State deserves a bit more investigation, if only because it reminded Jazz observers that their quest to establish some diversity in terms of style of play is still a work in progress.

We’ve already explored how the Jazz are using this regular season to experiment with strategies that stretch beyond their typical comfort zone. Their once-elite defense is still extremely solid when operating around the anchor that is 3-time DPOY Rudy Gobert, but the Jazz have clearly identified a need to build their competency in other defensive systems. At varying points this season, we’ve seen them switch more, hedge higher, dabble with a zone, and selectively trap. And, when absolutely necessary, we’ve even seen them play without a traditional big man at all.

The idea is that the Jazz will be better served by being equipped to play winning basketball even when a specific opponent forces them into another style. It’s the reason they added combo bigs Rudy Gay and Eric Paschall in the offseason, and the reason we’ve seen head coach Quin Snyder get a bit more varied in his game-to-game opponent scheming.

On Saturday they had to resort to smallball, but not because of the opponent. Actually, the Jazz did great against the Warriors in their typical configuration: a +12.1 net rating in Gobert’s 35 minutes, despite poor ball containment by the guards that impacted the defensive performance.

It was the other 13 minutes that were the issue. Gobert’s usual backup, Hassan Whiteside, was out on Saturday, so by necessity they ran with five perimeter players during Gobert’s brief rests. And it went, in a word, poorly.

When the big man sat and the Jazz played without a traditional five, the production cratered on both ends. With no elite roll man at the center of the offense, the Jazz only managed a 78.6 offensive rating in the 13 minutes Gobert sat. And on the other end, Warrior ball handlers just waltzed right around static, confused Jazz defenders to the tune of a 139.3 defense. That’s a -60.7 net per 100 possessions — objectively terrible.

Plays like this one might be because of the downgraded back line defense… but plays like this one just aren’t good enough defense by the guards. And those are way more common.

But the reason we’re talking about it isn’t because of it’s impact on Saturday’s loss — just the third Jazz loss in 16 games. It’s because so far, the group has not found success in smallball configurations at all. For the season, the Jazz are -33.5 per 100 possessions outside of garbage time when neither Gobert nor Whiteside is on the court. Both the defense (123.4) and offense (89.9) have completely fallen apart without a traditional center on the court, per Cleaning the Glass. The sample size is large enough now at 109 possessions to conclude that the Jazz have some serious work to do if they’re going to have that in their toolkit for the postseason.

By contrast, all lineup combinations that feature one of Gobert/Whiteside are +12.6 outside of garbage time. Simply put: they’re elite when they play within their core identity — and terrible (so far) when they have tried to be something else.

It’s not any one guy’s fault. Gay is not equipped to be a Gobert-level epicenter of the defense, but that isn’t what they acquired him to be. The reason the Jazz are struggling is because the four other guys need to reprogram their mental circuitry in those minutes; they’re so used to a mindset of “funnel!” but in 5-out situations they have to make a bigger priority of staying in front of the ball and, in a pinch, rotating differently than they’re used to. It’s the same issue that hurt them in last year’s playoffs. Partially because of guard health and partially because they were working against pretty well-established muscle memory, Jazz guards played matador-style defense against L.A. and forced Snyder (and Gobert) to make impossible choices: allow a layup, or allow an open corner three? Bringing Gobert in worked for a while, but NBA guys will only miss wide open shots for so long.

In certain situations they can fall back on what they’re best at. That’s what Milwaukee did last postseason. After experimenting with different coverages throughout the regular year, they reverted to  their standard defense which functioned like a wrecking ball to smash apart opponent actions. The Jazz have a similar security blanket, a default system they can fall back on when the going gets rough. That’s a nice luxury to have.

The playoffs, however, are all about teams trying to force you to do things that make you slightly less comfortable. On both ends, a smart postseason opponent will try to take away the things you’re best at and dare you to beat them in other ways. It’s what the Clippers did last summer, abandoning their pick-and-roll based offense altogether because it would force the Jazz to guard in a way they had less experience guarding. 

Simply put, the Jazz are good enough to have a chance in a series against anybody — but the likelihood of throwing a party downtown go up considerably if they can find ways to produce winning basketball even when they’re forced to be a different version of themselves.

So far, there’s a lot of work left to do.

In their own words

“We’re not trying to be perfect on January 1.”

-Donovan Mitchell after Saturday’s loss to Golden State

It’s not that Mitchell sounded unconcerned after a 7-point home loss. But he reminded everybody that the goal of all of these experimentations and versatility-hunting isn’t that the Jazz become the best version of themselves after 36 games.

Honestly, Snyder may have gotten all the data he needed from Jazz-Warriors long before that final 12-5 spurt by the visitors in the final 120 seconds. Up until that point, it was already clear that the Jazz could hang with the Dubs in their usual configuration and equally clear that they’re still ill-equipped to operate outside of that. It would have been nice to get the win AND the data, but there’s a reason they call these type of games measuring stick games. The Jazz learned some stuff — both encouraging and constructive — that may help them if Golden State is somewhere along their playoff path. 

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

15

Mitchell has now had 15 consecutive games with 20 points or more, the longest such streak of his career. The last time a Jazz player had a streak at least that long of 20+ point games in a single season was during the spring of 1998, just before the second of two consecutive Finals appearances. Mitchell’s streak is tied with Trae Young for the longest active streak in the NBA, and only Luka Doncic (16) had a longer streak this season. (Doncic’s streak ended on Sunday night when he put up 14 in his return from a lengthy absence.)

20

Speaking of 20… on Wednesday night in Portland, Gobert got his 20th career block against Blazers star Damian Lillard. That swat broke a tie between Lillard and Karl-Anthony Towns (19) for the, um, honor of having been blocked the most by the Stifle Tower. Gobert has blocked Andrew Wiggins 15 times, Jonas Valanciunas 14 times, and 11 other NBA peers 10 times or more.

+59

There’s a lot of talk right now about what went wrong, but the Jazz had some pretty impressive runs this week, including in Saturday’s loss. They had a 7-minute period in the third quarter where they punked the Warriors to the tune of 30-10. They also dropped the hammer on Friday night with a 22-0 fourth quarter run against the Wolves, they never trailed after an opening 14-2 spurt against Portland, and they put San Antonio away early with first half runs of 21-8 and 15-0. The common denominator in all those runs: Gobert. For the week, the Jazz outscored opponents by 59 points with Gobert on the court, and lost by 33 when he sat. Or in net rating terms: a remarkable +20.9 per 100 possessions with Gobert on the court since Christmas. No other Jazz player is close to that — Mike Conley is next at +12.4, followed by Gay’s +11.4.

+12.6

Deep reserve runs remain an issue of at least mild concern: for the season, Cleaning the Glass has Utah at +12.6 per 100 possessions anytime their lineup is comprised of any five of their main nine guys (plus Eric Paschall, who played in Gay’s rotation spot while the veteran was rehabbing his heel). But anytime the Jazz involve even one player from their deep bench, they go from being dominant to essentially playing like a .500 team: +0.9 per 100 with all lineups that feature one or more of their 11th through 16th men. The Trent Forrest minutes were a bit problematic this past week: -12.7 per 100 possessions, the only negative net rating among guys who saw regular minutes for the week.

+8.9

For the season, each of the Jazz’s main nine guys has a Net Rating of +8.9 (Royce O’Neale) or higher. Another addition or two on the fringes could really help Utah solidify its refinforcements, especially for nights when Conley rests, Whiteside misses, etc.

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

Let’s just take a quick gander at how a few different predictive systems view the Western Conference power structure as of today:

As of January 3. (Ranks are among Western Conference teams.)

To the degree that there is any consensus forming among these three models, it’s in establishing the tiers we’ve all seen forming.

  • Golden State, Phoenix and Utah all rank 1st through 3rd in every single column and have the best title odds in all three systems.
  • Denver, Memphis and Dallas mostly rank 4th through 6th everywhere.
  • Views on the L.A. teams are a bit more varied, and sort of in a tier of their own, although Minnesota isn’t far off on the aggregate.
  • If the teams above are 1-9 in some order, that leaves one more play-in spot for teams like San Antonio and Sacramento (or Portland/NOP, not pictured here).

Remember that none of these are qualitative systems. Each one is based on the creator’s assumptions about which macro indicators are better predictors of success, but beyond that there is no subjectivity in these *probabilistic* models. These aren’t power rankings or human predictions, in other words. They’re statistical systems that fire away in a spreadsheet somewhere whenever new results/data come in.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Let’s dole out credit for three Jazz wins — and one consolation prize for Saturday’s loss.

Jazz 110, Spurs 104: Jordan Clarkson. As tempted as I was to get Joe Ingles on the board with his first Game Ball of the season, precedent basically demands that I recognize Clarkson. He did a little of everything with 23 points, eight boards, five assists and two steals in a game where the Jazz needed someone to replace Mitchell’s creation and usage. Ingles did have his nicest game in a long while, though, including his 17-3-3 line. Also, the game was basically over by halftime, which had a lot to do with Bojan Bogdanovic (11 of his 19 before the break), Gobert (16, 13 and two blocks overall) and Whiteside (13 & 8, including a 9-point first half). But it was one of Clarkson’s most complete games of the year, even if it wasn’t his most efficient. Fun fact: the Jazz are 7-1 when Clarkson has at least five assists.

Jazz 120, Blazers 105: Rudy Gobert. Gay drew a lot of votes for his efficient 21 as the Jazz continue to feature him in more situations, and because of the blowout, he played nearly as much as the starters. But in a game that was largely won by pounding the Blazers inside on an off shooting night, the bigs — and particularly Gobert — were the key to this one. The Stifle Tower finished with a team-high 22, plus 14 rebounds, two blocks and 80% shooting. Conley controlled the game well in Mitchell’s absence, and both Clarkson and Whiteside had strong lines, too.

Jazz 120, Wolves 108: Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell was just so special in this one: 39 points (on 21 shots), plus six rebounds and five assists. Every single big stretch has the guard’s fingerprints all over it, but none more so than the 22-0 surge where the Jazz just completely dropped the hammer. Mitchell had 12 of those 22. The only reason to consider anybody else was the way things got dicey during Gobert’s brief second-half rest, and the the fact that the big fella had 14 points, 16 boards and four blocks, and that the Wolves shot 5-for-18 with Gobert guarding (including 2/7 at the rim). Bogdanovic was huge, Clarkson helped loosen the ketchup bottle with a nice second half, and the Jazz got good things from Gay again. But Don… yeah, that’s just superstar stuff.

Strong in Defeat:

  • Jazz 116, Warriors 123: Rudy Gobert. There’s really no question: the Jazz dominated when Gobert was on the court (+10) and fell apart whenever he was watching from the sidelines (-17). The big fella played 35 minutes, and if he played 36 or 37, they probably win that game. At one point he stood up to re-enter the game during a GSW run, and Snyder appeared to tell him to take his seat. When he did return, he had eight points on 4/4 shooting over the final eight minutes. He finished with a meaty 20-and-19 double-double, but the most instructive thing about that contest was the way the offense — not generally considered Gobert’s domain — completely fell apart without the big guy screening and rolling as the hub of the Utah attack. Mitchell had 20-6-9 despite an off shooting night, and two others (Bogey and Clarkson) also pitched in 20 apiece.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

The Jazz have another 4-games-in-6 nights stretch coming this week, all on the road and all with pretty significant travel before and after each game:

Monday 1/3, Jazz @ Pelicans: First, they’ll fly 1,428 miles to the Big Easy for a game that might wind up being, well, less than big easy. Valanciunas and Brandon Ingram were both listed as questionable, but JV has officially cleared health & safety protocols and Ingram (Achilles) will be a game-time decision. Five other Pels remain out, however, headlined of course by their young superstar Zion Williamson. That said, the Pelicans have won five of their last seven. They’re a poor defensive team, but they rebound well so they’re capable of mucking games up a bit. Ingram was averaging 28-6-6 in December until he left early in their 12/26 loss at Oklahoma.

Wednesday 1/5, Jazz @ Nuggets: Then, they’ll fly 1,062 miles back in the other direction to Denver. How weird is it to have the Jazz fly right over Ball Arena and then have to backtrack by a thousand miles? In fairness, the NBA does have about a gajillion variables to consider when scheduling 1,230 games, but that’s still unfortunate for the Jazz — especially since this is always an important matchup. The Nuggets aren’t quite themselves right now, with four players in protocols and four others out long term. The latter group includes two of their best three players — Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. — but as long as reigning MVP Nikola Jokic plays, this is always a challenge. The Serbian center leads the league in VORP, BPM, RAPTOR, EPM, LEBRON… simply put, he’s one of the best basketball players on the planet right now, even if he’s lacking his usual supporting cast. The Jazz were up two when Jokic left the October 26 Jazz-Nuggets matchup, and eventually pulled away against the Nuggets’ version of smallball. Jokic had 24-6-6 in that one despite not playing in the second half

Friday 1/7, Jazz @ Raptors: Another 1,315 flight miles puts the Jazz in Toronto for Friday’s matchup against Gay’s old team, a team he destroyed in his big “I’m back” performance on November 18. Since then, the Raps have been limping along at 9-8. Overall they’re pretty dang average, with the 16th best efficiency differential. Their offense is 14th, and their defense is slightly below average (22nd) despite an unusual style that uses a cadre of long, athletic defenders in an attempt to bust up actions with high pressure. They’re jumpy and long, but not always discliplined, which is why smart teams can usually pick at the seams if they’re willing to make the right basketball play. For example, the Jazz had seven in double figures in that November win. 

Saturday 1/8, Jazz @ Pacers: The flight to Indianapolis is only 441 miles, but once again they fly over their next destination on a longer flight and then have to backtrack. But first let’s deal with the Pacers, who upset the Jazz in SLC behind Malcolm Brogdon’s 30 and TJ McConnell’s 21. Repeat with me now: “point of attack defense.” The Jazz let Indy’s guard duo carve up their defense, and consequently never led after halftime. That game might have been a little fluky from the standpoint of Indiana’s defense: the Jazz shot 22% from the corner and 28% on threes overall despite the fact that the Pacers are poor at defending both shots (6th worst defending the corners, 10th worst guarding threes overall, per CTG). We’ll see if the Jazz can get back to their usual shooting, but they’ll be on a pretty serious rest disadvantage — the Pacers don’t have to play or travel on Thursday or Friday.

And then just to finish off the miles calculation: the Jazz will then hop 231 miles to finish their trip in Detroit, fly 1,481 miles home for a single game in Salt Lake before flying back to Denver (391), across to L.A. (861) and then home again (590) for their only pair of consecutive home games in the month of January. 

That’s 7,800 total flight miles, and along the way, oh yeah, they also play eight basketball games in eight different cities in 15 nights.

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

What an accomplishment for a player in his fifth NBA season. But also, what an awesome visual treatment by the Jazz social department.

Never forget that these are the good times, Jazz fans. They may make history this year or they may not. But either way, accomplishments like these are the reasons we’ll look back in five years, in 10 years, in whatever, and go, “Oh yeah, those were the good times.”

Happy New Year!

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