Crisis Means Choice For the Beleaguered Utah Jazz

The Jazz, now without Joe Ingles (#2), are at a crossroads. (Leah Hogsten, The Salt Lake Tribune)

The dramatic writers of ancient Greece had a specific word for the moment, choice or turning point that defined a hero’s trajectory in their plays: a crisis.

While the word crisis has taken on its own set of connotations in the modern sense, the actual Greek origin of the word literally means decision, derived from the choice a protagonist makes to respond to something unexpected along the hero’s journey.

The Utah Jazz are, by any modern definition of the word, a team in crisis. A slew of injuries, illnesses and other challenges seemingly all hit at once. They’ve won just twice in their last 13 times out. Their best two players have shared the court just five times since Christmas because of overlapping health issues. Their second-leading scorer is playing with a broken left hand. Players’ loved ones have been sick. Guys are slumping. Even their coach is currently sequestered away from the team during this pivotal juncture.

And then came Sunday night’s ultimate gut punch: Joe Ingles, who has been the soul of the Jazz in many ways during his eight seasons in Utah, was lost for the season when his left leg buckled inward on a drive to the basket in Minnesota. An MRI the next morning confirmed that Ingles’ ACL is torn, an injury that will  keep him off the court for the remainder of the season and likely into next year as well.

Dealing with adversity is just part of the journey for even very good NBA teams, but this is getting ridiculous.

But ask the Greeks: a crisis doesn’t necessarily signify disaster. It’s simply a set of choices. It’s a moment that marks an opportunity for the story to change, for characters to develop, for important decisions to be made.

Crisis = A New Chapter

Jazz brass faced a similar turning point in the summer of 2017. All-Star forward Gordon Hayward had just announced his decision to leave Utah in free agency, just as the basketball brain trust was about to board a cross-country flight back to Salt Lake.

Over the next five hours aboard that private jet, they learned (or remembered) that crises allow you to redefine what really matters to your identity.  

Here’s what the USA Today’s Sam Amick wrote a year after that pivotal plane ride.

That flight, they now know, set the tone for how they would handle life after Hayward. At a time when a pity party would have been understandable, they decided to pivot instead.

[…]

They discussed it all, from organizational philosophies that held true with or without Hayward to the ripple effect of his decision on their roster plan.

“We were able to write down things that we wanted to continue to be, and then a few things that… we had to bring back to the group, and some things that we wanted to also add or include,” (then-GM Dennis) Lindsey said. “It gave us time to reflect, be a little philosophical if you will.”

That conversation is part of the trajectory that produced today’s Utah Jazz. The loss of Hayward could have been a disaster, the type of blow organizations need years to recover from. Instead, they have made the playoffs in each subsequent season, and have put themselves in position to contend for a title. The specific transactional twists and turns that led them to this moment are too numerous to detail here. But it all started because in that turning point of a moment, franchise leaders took the opportunity to zoom out and view their philosophy and structure from a 35,000-foot level view — while cruising at 35,000 feet.

Crises give you that type of opportunity.

To be fair, the Jazz’s quick return to prominence also had a lot to do with player growth. Already an All-NBA talent and an elite defensive force, Rudy Gobert gave the Jazz another way to imagine their identity as built around a unique type of superstar. And precocious rookie Donovan Mitchell walked into his first NBA training camp months later and would quickly blossom into one of the league’s most dynamic scoring guards. Those two are now top-20 players, the pillars propping up an elite team.

But even shifting the focus to them, it could be argued, was the result of the brass stepping back and re-aligning on what really mattered to who they were. They could have thrown their hands up or retreated in frustration, as many do when unexpected setbacks arise. Instead, they found clarity and purpose amid that disappointment, and they moved forward.

Fast forward a half decade, and the Jazz have another moment here, another opportunity to define what they are in the face of challenges.

Crisis = Turning Point

Let’s be clear: Ingles’ sudden and painful exit from the Jazz rotation is not a mere plot point. Neither is Mitchell’s lingering battle with concussion symptoms, Gobert’s second bout with COVID-19, his injured calf, or any of the very real human struggles Jazz players have experienced over the last month. These guys aren’t characters in a TV show. The trials they’ve gone through affect their lives, their bodies, their families, their livelihoods. Reducing those struggles to the same level as a Breaking Bad cliffhanger is pretty impolite and unfeeling.

At the same time, the confluence of all of these challenges most definitely places the Jazz at a turning point.

One way or another, the story of the 2021-22 Utah Jazz will be told through the frame of this moment. If the season ends in disappointment, the narrative is practically already written: a talented team derailed by a series of challenges that ultimately put too much strain on the foundation, exposed underlying weaknesses, and magnified tensions.

If they turn their season around and reach new heights as a group, then that story too will be told against the backdrop of all the issues they overcame. If the Jazz are on ABC in June, then you will at some point hear Doris Burke or Mike Breen or somebody else say, “Think about all they had to endure to get here!”

In reality, most NBA champions only reach the dais after being galvanized by their own unique set of trials.

• Last year’s Bucks struggled with their identity, and missed stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday for stretches. Their regular season defense backslid after being an impenetrable No. 1 a year earlier. They had to adjust their roster along the way, and their coach was literally almost let go. And then… they overcame all that and held up a trophy.
• The 2020 Lakers had their momentum halted by a global pandemic. Some key veterans didn’t feel comfortable traveling to the bubble when play resumed, and had to be replaced with guys who had been out of the league. Anthony Davis missed time, Kyle Kuzma’s development stalled, and they too had to tinker with the roster in-season. And then… they overcame all that and held up a trophy.
• The 2019 Raptors took a gamble on a banged-up superstar and had to toggle between identities all year depending on whether Kawhi Leonard was available or not. Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Jonas Valanciunas also all missed chunks of time, and ultimately they too adjusted their roster by swapping Valanciunas for Marc Gasol at the deadline. O.G. Anunoby’s efficiency dropped across the board, Serge Ibaka forgot how to shoot threes, and Nick Nurse started to draw criticism. And then… well, you know.

We could keep going. The point here is that doing something as extraordinary as winning an NBA title always requires passing through the crucible in one way or another. We don’t know yet exactly what kind of story the Jazz are writing. It could be a story about a team about to crack under the strain of too many tribulations — or a story about how the Jazz will use this latest round of adversity to harden themselves ahead of a memorable playoff run, perhaps even one ending in celebration like it did for the similarly tested Bucks, Lakers and Raptors.

Either way, the history of the 2021-22 Jazz is still being written, especially as it relates to this latest set of turns in the story.

Crisis = Choice

Crisis means choice, the Greeks tell us. The most immediate choice the Jazz must make is what to do with the 25 nightly minutes that were earmarked for Ingles.

Ingles is obviously an important piece of Utah’s identity — as a facilitator, a shooter, and a still-underrated defender. Then there’s the clubhouse impact. Ingles has been described (here and elsewhere) in terms such “culture setter,” “locker room leader” and “soul of the Jazz.”

That will be harder to replace than Ingles’ production in what could objectively be described as a down year for the versatile wing. The Jazz can find ways to replace his raw stats: 7.2 points, 2.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists. But Ingles’ absence leaves the Jazz with some unique on-court gaps to solve for. He ran a decent amount of the second-unit offense as a pick-and-roll playmaker, and also guarded both big-bodied wings and ball-handling guards. It’s likely that nobody on the current roster is equipped to fill his exact role.

They can look for help from the outside, including by sending his expiring $13 million contract out. There were valid reasons to hesitate about trading Joe prior to this injury, but most of those have evaporated. The downside of losing his on-court impact is moot now, since he won’t play again during this current contract term either way. And the emotional element of watching a franchise favorite physically leave town and don another team’s jersey is also no longer a reality. Any Ingles trade now likely wouldn’t require him to get off his couch, let alone uproot his young family. A team acquiring Ingles at this point would really just be interested in the expiring contract, and likely wouldn’t even require him to report since he’s clearly out of commission until after his contract runs out.

Broadly speaking, there are two ways a deal involving Ingles’ salary could pan out:

Attaching an asset to bring back a rotational piece 

I would imagine that the Jazz’s preference at this point would be to try to turn Ingles’ roster spot into something that can produce as they attempt to make a deep playoff run. But that’s going to be challenging, because for a team to play along by sending a productive player in exchange for someone who’s hurt, that team would have to have: a) interest in whatever asset the Jazz could attach, b) some kind of financial situation where it benefits them to move salary, AND c) no realistic shot at winning anything meaningful this year.

If a team has two of those three qualifiers but not the third, there’s no real reason to give us a useful player for Ingles’ contract.

(a) In terms of assets the Jazz can attach to Joe’s deal, that mostly comes down to draft capital, unless some GM somewhere has a secret crush on one of the Jazz’s seldom-used youngsters. Utah can currently only transact with up to two firsts and/or three seconds, but even those would have to come with some conditions spelled out in fine print. Ken Clayton explained that all in his Monday trade Q&A, and Mark Russell Pereira will have more to say soon about the wisdom of the Jazz trading more draft assets.

(b) Look for teams who may be trying to get out of the tax this season, or getting off long-term money because of future cap crunches. For example, Boston and Portland are both $2 to 3 million over the tax line despite hovering around or below .500 all season. Something like Ingles and a pick for Marcus Smart + the injured PJ Dozier gets Boston out of the tax¹. Or in another example, Orlando may have already made the determination that they’re not bringing back Gary Harris given that they have some pending extensions and restricted free agents.

(c) But again, it has to be someone who isn’t competing. Philadelphia is over the tax threshold by a small enough figure that they could get under by shipping out a couple of veterans for Ingles. But they also have an MVP candidate and a non-zero chance at a title — especially if they get something for Ben Simmons. So why would they give away a good player or two?

There are deals in this category, but they’re going to be limited to the finite number of teams for which the three things above are true.

Moving his salary to reduce the tax bill 

If nothing pans out in the category above, the other option the Jazz can look into is to simply move off of Ingles’ salary to save millions in taxes.

Based on Utah’s current salary sheet, moving Ingles into some team’s space — it would almost HAVE to be OKC — would shave the Jazz’s tax bill by more than $25 million. You have to think that’s worth considering. That’s a huge expense attached to a player who isn’t going to contribute for the rest of the season.

There’s a version of this deal that is too costly NOT to make — for the Jazz, and also frankly the Thunder. While Ingles counts as a $13M player for trade purposes, a receiving team would only have to pay the remaining portion of his base salary, which would come to roughly $4.3 million by trade deadline day². The Jazz could actually offer to pay the full remaining $4.3 million themselves via cash in the trade³.

A deal like that would COST the Thunder $0, and simultaneously SAVE them $13 million towards their obligation to reach the salary floor⁴.

That doesn’t mean OKC will facilitate the salary dump for free. They’ll have other options to rent their cap space out, too, so the Jazz also have to compete with whatever other teams might offer in the way of compensation. Would some extra cash do it? Would OKC want a pick? Is there a young Jazz player they like? Or would $13M of savings be enough motivation for OKC?

My guess: if OKC general manager Sam Presti is doing his job, he has likely already contacted the Jazz and politely offered up his cap sheet as a place to stash that salary. He probably started by asking for some type of asset as a transaction fee, but as the deadline approaches, he could relent on that to some degree. If both teams get to 2:59 EST on February 10 and the Jazz still have Ingles and the Thunder still have a shortfall to the salary floor, then it would literally cost the Thunder $13 million (and the Jazz $25 million) to NOT make that deal. I expect some variation of this deal to happen unless the Jazz find a better way to use Ingles’ contract in a deal, or unless the Thunder have found a more fruitful way to use that salary floor shortfall.

Of course, the Jazz could also make a move that doesn’t involve Ingles at all.

Non-Ingles deals 

The Jazz had a well-documented need for more perimeter help even before Ingles got hurt. They were on the market for another on-ball defender, preferably one who can at least knock down open jumpers. Given that Ingles is 6’8″ and a point guard at heart, losing him may exacerbate their lack of size, as well as highlight the need for another second unit creation option. That’s a lot of boxes to check.

They may not have the assets to get a single player who does all those things in one deal. At this point, fortifying their title odds may require them to add a defender with size and also a guard who can shoot and/or create. They may need to consider moving a second rotation piece — either along with Ingles’ contract or separately — to address both needs.

(Wild idea alert: there’s even a version where the Jazz could get out of the tax altogether, even while improving their bench defense. First, see if the right asset attached to Ingles could net them Kenrich Williams from OKC, then trade Jordan Clarkson in a deal that brings back a defense-minded guard making seven figures. If the numbers were just right, they could get below the tax line even after locking up Danuel House Jr. for the year.)

But replacing two major rotation roles with just 30ish games left is a huge chemistry risk. It’s a fascinating conundrum. Even before Ingles’ injury complicated matters, this was always going to be a defining moment for the Jazz. Any move they make ahead of the February 10 deadline — including standing pat — could be the decision that gets them over the top, or that backfires badly and upsets the harmony. It’s enthralling, and it’s a huge accomplishment as a franchise to reach the point where the decisions made have those kinds of stakes attached.

That’s the choice in front of them right now. Or, as Euripides and Sophocles would call it… the crisis.

Crisis and Climax

In virtually every superhero film ever made, there is a point in the story when it seems that doom is inescapable and all paths to victory have closed. Screenwriters actually have a term for this plot device: it’s the “all hope is lost” moment⁵. In the movies, of course, that is just the set-up for a triumphant protagonist to overcome all in a glorious ending. In real life, it doesn’t always play out that way.

The disappointment and setbacks facing the team now might not be part of their perfect movie ending. Maybe this is just the start of another disappointing collapse.

Or maybe all of this — the injuries, concussions, COVID, the slumps, the drama, the All-Star snubs, all punctuated by the loss of the “soul of the team” — maybe it’s all just setting up the final act of the hero’s arc.

It’s up to the Jazz now to decide which.