Salt City Seven: The Jazz Paradox, Playoff Picture, Red Hot Shooters & More

March 14th, 2022 | by Dan Clayton

Mitchell’s Jazz lost for a second time to the Spurs and for the 12th time to a sub-.500 opponent. But Mitchell is confident his team “will be better.” (Eric Gay via The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

The frustrating thing about another underwhelming week in Jazzland: the Jazz are not a bad basketball team.

In fact, there’s still abundant evidence that they’re quite the opposite. But at this point in the season, those quality markers don’t really excuse bad performances; they make them all the more perplexing.

The Jazz had a chance to narrow the gap on the Golden State Warriors and/or Memphis Grizzlies this week, and instead went 2-2 and are still staring at those two from across a 3-game chasm in the loss column. Losing in Dallas wasn’t a total disappointment; you rarely sweep teams that are, roughly speaking, in the same tier, and the Jazz kept that one somewhat close despite off shooting nights from their starting guards. But giving away a late 15-point lead to the lottery-bound Spurs was another in a long list of alarming fall-from-ahead losses against bad-to-mediocre teams.

All told, the Jazz have already lost to eight of the fourteen teams currently sitting outside of the 16 playoff spots: Detroit, Houston, Orlando and Washington, plus two losses against each of Indiana, Los Angeles, New Orleans, San Antonio. In nine of those 12 losses, they held a double-digit lead before against those lottery-bound teams. 

If this were a bad team, those losses would be disheartening, but not quite so frustrating to the fan base. But these Jazz are not bad! In fact, there’s plenty of evidence that they’re still really elite, which makes those blown leads against bad teams that much more puzzling.

Here are just a few macro quality indicators that show just how weird this futility against bad teams is for a team that is, otherwise, really damn good:

  • The Jazz still have the second best net rating in the league, despite all of the health woes and puzzling blown leads. Net rating — both raw and garbage-time adjusted — has shown over time to be a better predictor of future success than straight record.
  • Utah is 12-8 against the other seven likely Western Conference playoff teams. For context, West-leading Phoenix is 12-6 against the same teams. Memphis is 15-7 and Golden State is just 12-13. The Jazz are right there with all of them, but the reason their chances of catching any of the three are waning fast is because they are 23-12 against non-playoff teams, which is 8.5 games worse than Phoenix’s mark, 1.5 games worse than Memphis, and 3.0 games behind GSW against the current non-playoff teams. That’s the whole difference in their respective records!
  • The Jazz are fourth best in the league at efficiency differential against top 10 teams, per Cleaning the Glass. Their offense is the best in the league against elite teams! (In fairness, their defense really struggles against top-10 teams.)
  • They have the best net rating against top-10 offenses, and the second best net rating against top-10 defenses.
  • On an individual level, they have as much star power at the top of their roster as anybody. Rudy Gobert is 4th in RAPTOR, 14th in EPM, 4th in LEBRON, 9th in RPM and 15th in BPM. Donovan Mitchell is 24th, 11th, 35th, 10th and 18th in the same five metrics. Even Mike Conley is 21st, 28th, 30th, 15th and 35th giving the Jazz one of the most solid trios in the NBA as measured by broad impact stats.
  • When Gobert and Mitchell are on the court together, the Jazz outscore opponents by 12.1 per 100 possessions. With Conley and Gobert it’s +10.9, and with all three it’s +10.6. Those are elite figures.

So why is an elite team with elite players posting a 23-12 record against bad teams, including nine losses where they led by 11 or more?

As unsatisfying an answer as it may be, it could be because those are the games/situations where the Jazz are more likely to tinker with different coverages and X-and-O wrinkles. The Jazz said they were going to spend part of the regular season venturing out beyond their comfort zone, especially on defense, where their lack of scheme versatility has been an issue in previous postseasons.

Jordan Clarkson acknowledged that. When asked about specifically about the up-and-down nature of the Jazz’s season in his walk-off interview on Saturday night, the guard’s answer included the statement, “We(‘re) trying things.” That seems to confirm what we X-and-O nerds have been saying all year: the Jazz have experiment well beyond their usual bailiwick. And what better time to try something different than when you’re up by double figures against a bad team?

The only problem is that sometimes, that experimentation has backfired.

There are, of course, other theories to explain why this keeps happening to a Jazz team that in every other way is right there with the league’s elite. Some nights they are facing a makeshift rotation that features opponent combinations for which there’s very little scouting available. And then there’s the fact that these losses aren’t happening in a vacuum — sometimes, it’s the opponent who changes something, and that adjustment stymies the Jazz just long enough to open the door. There’s also just the simple theory that maybe they relax too much and almost unconsciously stop executing with the same force because the game feels like it’s in the bag.

Whatever combination of reasons account for Utah’s unusually high number of losses to lotto-bound opponents, it’s been a confounding problem when juxtaposed with their overall quality and their decent success against good teams. And as teams up and down the standings keep finding the cracks in the Jazz’s armor, none of these can be “burn the film” type games for a team trying to figure out how to win 16 playoff games. Every one of those losses matters. Every one has stuff in it the Jazz must confront. All of them count just as much as their gutty wins against quality teams.

The Jazz are good. That’s almost undisputable at this point. But this frustrating paradox is also just as much a part of their identity at this point.

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

The Jazz’s 2-2 week didn’t do them any favors as far as catching up to the Warriors, or even fending off the red-hot Mavs.

Down the stretch we go!

Utah has the hardest remaining schedule of any of the top six, while Dallas has the easiest. The good news for the Jazz is that even if they lose in their final visit to Dallas to go 2-2 against the Mavs this year, they’ll still own that tiebreaker as a division winner as long as they can keep Denver in the rear view mirros. The lead there is three in the loss column + the tiebreaker. So if Utah can just stay no worse than even with Dallas and Denver, they should be fourth.

But March 27 in Dallas is still going to be a big game. Even if it doesn’t ultimately decide seeding, it will be another chance for the two teams to nurture the growing sense of enmity the is swelling ahead of a likely first-round matchup.

Other observations:

  • Draymond Green’s return to GSW’s lineup tonight could wind up being huge. They’re 28-6 when he plays, 18-16 otherwise.
  • A source told Mike Singer of the Denver Post that Jamal Murray is “50-50” to return this season.
  • Phoenix has a brutal schedule, but has already clinched a playoff spot, and has a good hold on #1.
  • This week’s big head-to-head games: Wolves-Lakers and Jazz-Clippers are the only game between two teams in the top 10 of the West.

In their own words

This tweet hearkens back to the Gobert’s “We will be fine” from early 2018. Of course, it would be more encouraging if it didn’t come a few days before the latest fourth quarter collapse.

But still, the point here is that Mitchell and his mates seem to be focused on the goal that many of them have stated at various points along the journey: to be the best version of themselves by April, May and (basketball gods willing) June.

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

55.6%

Bojan Bogdanovic has made 25 of his last 47 3-point attempts, good for 55.6%. Remember, he’s still playing with a broken finger.

14.7%

Conley, on the other hand, is just 2-for-14 from three in his last four games, and 5-for-34 overall from the field. The Jazz definitely don’t reach their postseason ceiling without a rejuvenated Conley, so we’ll have to see what the Jazz do to refresh him in the next month.

98.3%

Per stats site inpredictable.com, the Jazz had a 98.3% chance of winning in San Antonio after Rudy Gay his a 3-point shot to extend Utah’s lead to 81-66 with 10:02 to go. They wound up losing by two.

-17.6

Gobert’s foot strain (coupled with Udoka Azubuike’s latest ankle injury) gave us another look at some centerless minutes on Saturday night. Unfortunately, they still didn’t go great: the Jazz lost 38-43 to the Kings in the minutes without a true center on the floor. So far this season, they are -17.6 per 100 when Gobert, Hassan Whiteside and Azubuike are all off the court.

10/15

Ten of Utah’s final 15 games are against teams with winning records. But hey, maybe that’s not a bad thing in light in the section above about Utah’s missteps against lottery teams.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

A couple of Wilsons to give out this week, both to red hot shooters.

Jazz 123, Blazers 85: Bojan Bogdanovic. The Jazz didn’t need anybody to pull anything close to their regular minutes to put away the struggling Blazers, but the red-hot Bogey didn’t need more than 24 minutes to put up 27 points and six threes. Royce O’Neale’s double-double was also nice, and if you take Mitchell’s stats per 36 (24-6-9), you realize he was on pace for a pretty special night as well.

Jazz 134, Kings 125: Jordan Clarkson. Sometimes they make it easy by giving the actual game ball to the guy who, if we’re honest, was the easy choice anyway. Clarkson’s career night was also an NBA season high off the bench and the most ever by a Jazz reserve. And they were n-e-e-d-e-d. The Jazz offense looked tight before JC checked in, and he instantly loosened things up with 14 points in under seven minutes. He’d finish with 45 — on 15/21 shooting! — and a game-best +17. Just no debate on this one. Mitchell’s 25-5-6 were pretty dang important, and Bogdanovic’s 26 included a pair of back-breaking threes in the fourth quarter. Also, how about Hassan Whiteside: 21 rebounds to go with 12 points and three swats.

Strong in defeat:

  • Jazz 103, Mavericks 111: Bojan Bogdanovic. It was an off night for Mitchell, a *really-off* night for Conley, and this round of Gobert guarding Luka Doncic went the way of the Slovenian. So the strongest performers in this loss were likely  Bogey and JC. Bogey’s 21-2-4 on 11 shots were just ever-so-slightly better than Clarkson’s 19-3-0 on 14 shots. But the reality is that if the Jazz get a tiny bit more from either starter guard, this one is likely close coming down the stretch. C’est la vie.
  • Jazz 102, Spurs 104: Rudy Gobert. Mitchell’s 24-7-6 paced the Jazz in Texas. He did miss seven straight shots at one point, but they were fine shots; sometimes you just miss. He’d be a worthy choice here, but in this writer’s book, Gobert edged him just barely. Gobert was the player who had the biggest positive impact on win probability from either team, per Inpredictable.com, and managed to really impact the game despite just three shot attempts. Part of that was his 9-for-10 night from the line, which itself is deserving of recognition, but also his usual rim protection — he had five blocks. It was neither All-Star’s best night all-around, but both did lots of things well and would be fine choices here. 

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

The Jazz just completed their final 5-games-in-7-nights stretch, and they only have two back-to-backs left. They’re home for most of this week before heading east for the final time this season.

Monday 3/14, Jazz vs. Bucks: The Bucks were down a couple of stars when they dropped a 12-point decision at home to the Jazz earlier in the season, and Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are now back and playing well. But the head of the snake is top-3 MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 33 and 12 in his last dozen games. The Bucks are also getting Brook Lopez back for this game, although it’s fair to expect that his minutes and role will be somewhat regulated. Even without Lopez, Milwaukee is an elite defensive rebounding team, and the Jazz are top-5 on the offensive glass, so that very well could be the deciding factor on Monday.

Wednesday 3/16, Jazz vs. Bulls: All-Star DeMar DeRozan has been on an absolute tear, and the Jazz may have gotten the first warning sign. His 32-point night against Utah in the sixth game of the season was the first of his 24 outings with 30-plus, games in which the Bulls are 17-7. However, a couple of his perimeter pals may not play in Utah. Lonzo Ball isn’t expected back anytime soon, and Zach LaVine missed Saturday’s game and is listed as questionable for Monday night’s date with the Kings in Sacramento. They did just get Alex Caruso back, and the defensive guard made his presence felt right away in a important win over Cleveland. He’ll likely spend some time checking Mitchell, as he did in that 107-99 October win.

Friday 3/18, Jazz vs. Clippers: Beyond all the usual Kawhi Leonard and Paul George-driven injury speculation, the Clips are without Norm Powell indefinitely, and Robert Covington has missed four straight for personal reasons. With all the absences, this is very much Reggie Jackson’s team in the short term: he has averaged 19 shots per game over the last month, and just as many points. But don’t let his low-efficiency brand of offense fool you: the Jazz know exactly how easily Jackson can crack open a defense if the first line of defense isn’t stout. Their identity changes a lot from night-to-night, but you can certainly expect a lot of on-ball creation from Jackson, plenty of possessions for Marcus Morris, and 46% outside shooter Luke Kennard to spot up from three as often as the Jazz given him any bit of space. 

Sunday 3/20, Jazz @ Knicks: After being a No. 4 seed last season, the Knicks have quickly faded from relevance. They were over .500 in mid January, but have since gone 6-19 in a spectacular collapse that has them five games out of the last play-in spot. Julius Randle followed up his first ever All-NBA season with a 10 percentage point drop in 3-point shooting and statistical drops across the board. New York hasn’t seen Derrick Rose since before Christmas, and they had gotten so little from prized offseason signee Kemba Walker that they eventually shut him down — he hasn’t appeared in their last nine. RJ Barrett is the future there, but he’s still an efficient scorer at this stage. Former Jazz guard Alec Burks is a part-time Knicks starter, and current Utah reserve Danuel House Jr. spent time with the Knicks earlier this season on a hardship 10-day.

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

I had this space reserved for a follow-up on the Jazz’s tourney ties. But then this happened, and it has to be the  coolest thing from the Jazz’s week.

Quickly though, for posterity:

  • O’Neale’s and Jared Butler’s Baylor Bears got a #1 seed (East), as did Azubuike’s Kansas Jayhawks (West).
  • Quin Snyder’s Duke will be a #2 seed in the West Regional.
  • Gay’s UConn will be a #5 in the same region.
  • Conley’s Ohio State will be a #7 seed in the South.
  • Eric Paschall’s Villanova is a #2 seed there as well, meaning the two could meet up in the round of 32.
  • Virgnia Tech (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) is an 11th seed in the East after shocking Duke in the ACC championship game.
  • Texas A&M (House) will be playing at the NIT.

Less than a month to go in the regular season! Thanks for checking in on another week in Jazzland.

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