A Look at Rudy Gobert’s DPOY Chances, Part I: Obstacles

March 31st, 2022 | by Zarin Ficklin

Can Gobert, pictured here protecting the rim in Dallas, win a 4th DPOY? (Tony Gutierrez via The Salt Lake Tribune)

Rudy Gobert is chasing his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award. Only Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace have won four times. Gobert, not yet in his 30s, is on a path to become the most decorated defensive player of all time. He probably joins the Hall of Fame even if he doesn’t win another DPOY trophy, but adding to his collection certainly wouldn’t hurt.

By definition, the award goes to the best defensive player of the regular season. There is plenty of evidence that Gobert may indeed be just that once again, starting with the aggregate of existing defensive metrics which favor the Jazz center. Unfortunately, actually winning the award is more complicated than just being the best. Each season Gobert faces similar obstacles. Let’s look at the issues that could stand between Gobert and his fourth DPOY.

Voter Fatigue

Voter fatigue is real, and Gobert has won three of the last four awards. But that accomplishment alone shows that voters are willing to award consistent performers. What it could mean, however, is that Gobert is disadvantaged in a tight race. If it’s close enough, why not pick a fresh face?

Positional Fatigue

Ask players who the best defenders are, and names like Jrue Holiday and Kawhi Leonard often come up. The ability to lock down a player one-on-one is clearly revered among those actually playing. Fans similarly clamor for variety in player archetypes winning the award.

The DPOY list is dominated by centers — about three-quarters of all winners. Leonard and Ron Artest are the only pure perimeter defenders to win the award since 1996, when Gary Payton won. This season, Mikal Bridges and Marcus Smart are in the conversation, but outside the top three by betting odds.

The boring fact is that paint protectors have a bigger defensive impact than perimeter defenders, and voting habits reflect that. Gobert is the best paint protector, and impacts defense most, year after year. Last season he may have had the best defensive season in NBA history by a myriad of metrics — at least for as long as those tracking numbers have existed. It may not be exciting to crown Gobert repeatedly, but it’s hard to argue with numbers that consistently put him right at the top of the league for defensive impact.

The Versatility Argument

Another attribute has been heralded in recent years: defensive versatility. Ben Simmons campaigned on this platform last season, arguing that his ability to guard any position was more important than Gobert’s rim protection. Draymond Green has a similar reputation. Both Simmons are Green are largely out of this year’s race due to games played.

Gobert has two primary opponents at this point of the race: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. Both are considered versatile defenders. Many argue that Gobert is not. Let’s dive into that.

First, what does defensive versatility mean? There’s the ability to guard multiple positions. Simmons, Smart, and Green are both fast and big enough to guard the opponent’s best player and can switch against pick-and-roll attacks. It’s a useful attribute, for sure — particularly so for perimeter defenders, who can guard any player not parked in the post. But this circles back to the value of paint protecters vs. perimeter defenders. Yes, a versatile perimeter player can always guard the best opposing player. But a paint protector can shut down opposing systems, rather than players. Versatility is helpful, but is it a trump card?

Another way to look at defensive versatility is the possession of multiple defensive skills. Let’s break it down. Rim protection involves skills like communication, blocking shots, positioning, and recovery. Perimeter defense involves skills like contesting shots, forcing steals, fighting through screens, and stopping dribble penetration. A versatile defender is proficient in multiple categories.

However you define it, Rudy’s position is unique. By the numbers and the eye test, Gobert is actually a very versatile defender — we’ll dig into this later. But he doesn’t have the reputation that other defenders do. Part of that is his role in Utah’s system. Rudy is so dominant as a paint defender, it makes sense to keep him there as much as possible. Simply put, Utah’s defense saves more points with Rudy protecting the rim than it would by removing him from the paint to guard the best opponent on the perimeter. If Rudy was used more on the perimeter, opponents would simply attack the rim from another angle (a scheme we’ve seen this season).

1-on-1 defense

We’ve touched on two things:

  1. The ability to lock down a player one on one is valued among many players and fans. It’s much easier to notice than a center making schematic impact.

  2. Rudy is actually very good 1-on-1 defender, but he’s more effective elsewhere, so doesn’t have the reputation of a lockdown defender.

Patrick Beverley has tried to discredit Rudy, saying he doesn’t guard the best opposing player. Others discredit Rudy when superstars score a lot of points. Teammate Hassan Whiteside had a solid rebuttal:

 

Day’s later, Rudy responded to this pretty well himself:

The truth is that superstars are going to score no matter what. Nikola Jokic plays well against Gobert, but he’s the reigning the MVP. He plays well against everybody. And when stars score against the Jazz, it usually has much more to do with the rest of the team than it does with Rudy.

Playoff narratives

At this point it’s tiring to readdress Rudy’s playoff history. Yes, there’s the Steph Curry spin cycle highlight from five years ago. Even if Rudy wasn’t hurt in that series, it’s Steph Curry, who happens to star in a lot of highlight videos.

There’s the myth that Gobert gets played off the court in the playoffs. Or that his defense is less effective in the post season. Terrance Mann famously expelled the Jazz from the playoffs with a 39-point performance — one that put Rudy in an impossible position due to the team’s injuries and weaknesses. Utah’s playoff woes have not been because of Rudy, so much as a lack of shooting or perimeter defense.

All of this is moot, because the DPOY is a regular season award. Whether Gobert is good or bad in the playoffs shouldn’t factor into whether he wins, but could contribute to voters’ collective opinion of him.

Team success

How much team success factors into end-of-season awards has always been murky. If voters give significant weight to overall team defense, it could prove a real obstacle for Rudy. The Jazz are currently ranked 11th. For comparison:

  • Marcus Smart’s Celtics are #1
  • Draymond Green’s Warriors are #2
  • Mikal Bridge’s Suns are #3
  • Bam Adebayo’s Heat are #4
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.’s Grizzlies are #6

All of those teams possess numerous good defenders. More than the Jazz have, certainly.

On one hand, you can point to just how horrendous Utah’s defense is when Rudy has missed games. It just accentuates how impactful he is. But if voters want to reward good defensive teams with an individual award, it’s not hard to make a case for other players.

These arguments aside, Gobert remains a very strong candidate. In part two, we’ll dig into his case, showing numbers that show both his usual dominance and increased versatility. We’ll also explore the cases for other top candidates and how Gobert compares.

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