Salt City Seven: Bring On Dallas, Season Wrap Numbers, Confidence

Mtichell and the Jazz will be tested by Dallas’ frisky defenders. (Tony Gutierrez via The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

The 2021-22 Jazz season has felt at various points like a tedious, minimally rewarding, wake-me-when-the-playoffs-are-here type of endeavor.

Well wake the hell up. They’re here.

The NBA is choosing to open its 2022 playoffs with a game featuring one of the league’s rising superstars — maybe (more on that in a second) — and a team under everybody’s microscope. Set your alarms, because Jazz-Mavs starts at the unusually early hour of 11:00 a.m. MDT.

The Mavericks will be an interesting test for the Jazz, but far from an insurmountable one. Online books have opened with the Jazz as ever-so-slight favorites, and FiveThirtyEight gives the Jazz  a razor-thin 51%-49% edge in their forecast. In other words, conventional wisdom sees this series as close to a coin toss.

The Mavs have a league-average offense, but they got significantly better on that end since reimagining Luka Doncic’s supporting cast with a deadline-day trade. They’re 20-7 since shipping Kristaps Porzingis to Washington, largely because their offense got better by seven full points (!!), from 110.3 to 117.5. Around the same time, they lost mid-efficiency bench gunner Tim Hardaway Jr. to injury, which meant they really had to reorganize the rotation.

Spencer Dinwiddie arrived in the trade and took over a lot of THJ’s bench creation responsibilities, but in a way that more closely resembled their existing spread pick-and-roll architecture. Doncic and Jalen Brunson still largely stagger minutes, too, and they promoted Reggie Bullock to full-time starter to fill the Porzingis void. That move made them a lot smaller, but ironically also more rugged. Porzingis was in many ways a 7-foot-3 wing; now the Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith combo gives them multiple physical, long, switchy defenders in their starting five.

The narrative is that Dallas improved defensively as the year went along, but honestly that’s mostly true of the pre-trade Mavs. Their DRtg had risen to fifth by the trade deadline after a six-week period where they were elite. But since then, they’ve backslid: they’re 14th in defense since February 10th, at 113.8. Still, on the aggregate they ranked #7 for the season, and they certainly have the muscle memory to return to swarming, pestering D if and when they need to.

Meanwhile, Utah is one of just four teams to finish the season in the top 10 on both ends of the court, despite well-documented woes in the final minutes of close games. The Jazz finished the year 32-19 in games in which all three stars appeared, but also had a bevy of other injuries to their sturdy core of specialists and role players. Like the Mavs, they have fielded a lot of different versions of themselves because of star health and their own midseason roster shuffle. (They traded the injured Joe Ingles for some back-of-rotation help.)

Because of the various versions of both teams we saw this year, there’s not even a ton we can take from the season series between the squads. The Jazz and Mavs split the season series at two apiece, but two of those games just don’t have that much value in terms of predicting the future. Doncic, Bullock, DFS and Maxi Kleber all missed the Christmas game for Dallas, which was still organized around Porzingis at that point. The Jazz were without Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic, Danuel House and Hassan Whiteside for the most recent encounter.

In the other two — the Jazz’s 5-point win in February and Dallas’ 8-point win in early March — we saw some of the important dynamics that will define this series. For instance, Dallas showed how they may try to use five-out lineups to pull Gobert away from the paint.

In the February 25 game, Gobert mostly acquitted himself really well in those situations, and the other defenders didn’t leave him hanging when he had to abandon his usual post as the last line defender. Gobert frequently got switched onto Doncic and did a good job moving his body and forcing the dynamic playmaker into dead ends. In the March 7 rematch, it was obvious that Doncic was eager to respond. Down the stretch, he hunted those Gobert mismatches, and this time he was more determined to show he could still score with the all-world defender in his grill. He scored 35, including 11 points on 3-for-5 outside shooting while being guarded by Gobert on switches.

That will definitely be one of the battlegrounds of this series, and we’ve seen what it looks like when Gobert got one over on Doncic and vice versa.

That said, Powell is really more of a traditional five in terms of style despite the fact that he’s smaller. Kleber is their main smallball option, and he’s been slumping: he had a 5-ppg month in March on 32-20-56 shooting splits before getting shut down for the last four games. Overall, though, Kleber-at-5 lineups have performed at a +8.5 rate throughout the season, and that will be a big key to Dallas jerking Utah out of its defensive comfort zone.

On the other end, the Jazz will be a real test for Dallas’ up-and-down defense. They can use the length of DFS and Bullock to impact the pick-and-roll efficiency of creators Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley, but that means they’ll be leaving a smaller, minus defender on Bogdanovic. Gobert can also find some success against Dallas’ smaller interior defenders: he shot 9-for-12 in the two most applicable games vs. Dallas, averaging 13.0 points, 15.0 boards and 3.0 blocks in those two.

Still, both teams have various versions with a solid enough sample size that we can start to imagine some of the strengths here. The Jazz have a bit more continuity at play given the Porzingis quirk; Utah has seven lineups that have been together for 100-plus possessions, while Dallas has just three. A lot of these Maverick iterations are still learning to play together.

Source: Cleaning the Glass

Weirdly, the quality bellwether for Dallas isn’t even a delineation between Doncic on/Doncic off minutes: they’re +5.0 with the Slovenian superstar, +4.7 when he sits (filtering out Porzingis and THJ in both figures, by the way). That’s because in the Luka versions they’re elite offensively and sub-average on defense, and when he’s out they’re the exact inverse. So the Jazz truly have to prepare to play the yin and yang versions of that squad.

That’s applicable because Doncic’s status is suddenly unclear for at least the start of the series. Doncic sustained a calf strain in Sunday’s season finale and the Mavs are being a bit coy about sharing his status beyond confirming MRI results. Any Doncic absence would certainly stretch the Mavs, but that data with and without him suggest that the Jazz have a test coming either way — just a different type of test if Luka misses time.

The Jazz likely would prefer he play, at least for narrative and measuring stick reasons. If the Jazz get by a wounded Mavericks team, people will be quick to dismiss that accomplishment, especially if the Jazz fall short against the juggernaut Suns in the next round. Plus, at this particular crossroads moment, Jazz decision-makers would probably be interested in seeing how a series goes against a full-strength Western Conference contender, as opposed to getting helped by an ill-timed star injury. A series decided by Doncic and Mitchell’s awesome firepower going up against the Jazz’s Gobert-led architecture and Dallas’ versatile, pesky defensive group is way more fun and informative anyway.

In short, this series could easily go either way. This is the test we’ve waited 82 games to see the Jazz encounter. 

In their own words

In lieu of quoting a single Jazzman, let’s do a quick few quotes to capture the state of the Jazz as the second season approaches.

“We’re healthy now. We haven’t had that in a couple years (in the playoffs)… I feel good about the fact that we’re where we are right now, and that we have a group… that is healthy going into playoffs. Hopefully that [literally knocks on wood here] stays consistent.”

–Quin Snyder

In nearly every elimintation series in the Snyder era, the Jazz were missing a starter. Second-leading scorer George Hill missed most of the Warriors series in 2017. Ricky Rubio missed the second round in 2018. Bogdanovic missed the bubble entirely, while Conley missed two games. And last season, Conley played just 25 minutes while hobbled in the Clippers series, and Mitchell was injured in Game 2. The only ouster series where they were relatively healthy in their top seven was the 2019 bout with the Rockets, before the Jazz had assembled the current core.

So yeah, it will be fun to finally see what the Mitchell-Gobert-Conley-Bogey Jazz can do at more or less full strength in a postseason.

“Lot of ups, lot of downs. But I thought this season was a great experience for us. I thought we got a lot better throughout the year. I’m excited. We’ve been waiting to get back to the playoffs since last year. Excited to get to do it.”

-Gobert, after Sunday’s season finale

There seems to be a real sense of “Finally!” among Jazz players. Conley said that while the Jazz will be “spinning (their) wheels” on strategic stuff, they’re also just “excited because it’s the best time of year for us.” One has to imagine that after dominating the regular year last season just to be disappointed in the playoffs, that on some subconscious level the Jazz have been really impatient in waiting for this moment right here.

It reminds me a little of the 2011-12 Heat. In LeBron James’ first season there, the Heat had tied for the league’s top Net Rating and had won at a 62-win pace when their three stars were all available — only to lose four of the final five Finals games to Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavs.

The next season, they didn’t quite look *bored*, but the edge had come off from the season earlier. They had the fourth best record and fourth best Net Rating, and their Hall-of-Fame trio won at a 55-win pace instead of the previous season’s 62. And ultimately they broke through and won that year, the first of James’ four titles.

That’s not a perfect metaphor for the Jazz, who (for starters) don’t have a two-time MVP heading into these playoffs. But it’s just a reminder that sometimes teams are as eager to fast forward in the story as the rest of us are. The Jazz have been waiting a long time to answer questions and narratives that can only be addressed after game 82. And here we are.

“Fans, hang with us, man. I promise you, we’re all right.”

-Mitchell

And finally this.

If you can’t tell, the Jazz don’t sound rattled as a group. I do believe some portion of the drama we’ve heard about all season is true, but absolutely nobody on the team sounds focused on that right now. The Jazz sound eager and confident ahead of this moment. Whether that translates to the outcomes Jazz Nation hopes for remains to be seen. 

“We’ll be good,” the three-time All-Star concluded.

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

+6.2

Despite all the white-knuckle moments and regrettable collapses, the Jazz still finished the year third in Net Rating at +6.2. They finished with the league’s best offense and 10th best defense.

23rd

However, their clutch net rating (-6.7) was eighth worst and their offense and defense in those close finishes both fell to 20th or below. How they’ll perform in tight games in the playoffs remains a huge question after the season they had in that regard.

49.3%

Gobert finished the year having held opponents to 49.3% on attempts at the rim. That’s lower than in any of his DPOY seasons, and also came in a year when he’s guarding more outside the paint than ever before. Want proof? Only three players in the entire NBA guarded at least 5 shots per game at the rim AND 5 shots per game from outside the arc. One was Anthony Davis, whose opponents shot similarly to Gobert’s outside (32.6% to Gobert’s 32.7%), but he allowed 62.3% at the rim. The other was Christian Wood, who allowed 37.9% from three and 63.1% in the restricted area. In other words, nobody alive is doing the combination of things Gobert is doing. Jaren Jackson Jr. is close: he guards 4.2 threes per game (at 34.7%) and 4.8 rim attempts (at Gobert’s same 49.3%). Giannis Antetokoumpo’s 3pt defense and rim defense percentages are both slightly worse than Gobert’s. Even perimeter ballhawk Marcus Smart guards roughly the same number of threes as Gobert (4.8) on roughly the same percentage (33.0%), but of course Smart doesn’t impact the paint. Same goes for Mikal Bridges.

.572

Mitchell’s true shooting figure climbed again this season, to a career-best .572. He did that despite having a slight dip from 3-point land; that’s because he’s taking more (and tougher) threes than ever, and it’s part of why the Jazz have been so lethal this year on offense. His assist % has also climbed every year he’s been in the league, to 27.7% this season. 

+8.2

Utah’s starting lineup finished the year at +8.2 per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. They were+6.5 in all iterations of the Mitchell hybrid units with Gobert off the court (also excluding the departed Ingles), and the Gobert-Conley “quarter breaker” lineups¹ with no Mitchell (and again, taking Ingles out) were +13.3. So once again the three staggered groups appears to have given Utah a lot of options to play winning basketball.

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

Nothing left to track now, so let’s just see what predictive systems are saying:

• Vegas odds opened with the Jazz as very light favorites: -115 series win price compared to Dallas’ -105. The odds have since shifted to about -170 for Utah, largely because of the Doncic ambiguity.
• Similarly, FiveThirtyEight gives the Jazz an ever-so-slight edge: 51% to win.
• Basketball Reference’s SRS-based system doesn’t show series odds, but they give Utah a 16.2% chance at coming out of the West, nearly four times what they give Dallas. You can infer from those numbers that B-Ref likes the Jazz to win this first-round series.
• ESPN’s BPI model is far less bullish about Utah: just 4.0% title odds, but that’s still more than Dallas’ 2.5% — meaning they probably expect Utah to advance.
• Not surprisingly, all of these systems really like Phoenix, so the Jazz having the Suns in their way if they do get past the first round is obviously depressing their WCF and title odds.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Here are our three final Game Ball awardees of the season, along with a look at where the count ended up.

Jazz 121, Grizzlies 115: Danuel House Jr. For about 40 minutes, Jordan Clarkson was the no-brainer choice here. He notched an efficient 22-5-5, he had a hand in the three most memorable individual plays of the night, and he the Jazz outscored the Grizz 39-24 during his second-half stint, in which he had 10 points and four assists. But this game going to OT meant Clarkson wasn’t involved in the most decisive 9:11. A guy who WAS involved in the close, somewhat notably, was House. I probably would have gone with Gobert here (22 points, 21 rebounds) if the majority of you hadn’t told me otherwise, and you all made good points. Not only was House closing the *story* of the night, but was also really important to the outcome. He held Desmond Bane and the red hot Tyus Jones to 0-for-7 shooting when he ended the play on them, and the Jazz’s DRtg with House on was 83.9. Most nights I’d still go with Gobert for overall impact, but House was +17 in a non-unsubstantial 29 minutes, so this was more than a quick spark. Plus, Utah never trailed after House’s overtime triple. (Mitchell’s 20-9-5, Whiteside’s double-double and Conley’s all-around night deserve mentions, too.)

Jazz 137, Thunder 101: Clarkson. Partially because he was a deserving candidate a night earlier, and partially because he brought a really helpful, essential mindset to this one. With no Conley or Mitchell, the Jazz needed scoring AND distributing: his 18 points and 10 assists made it his first Jazz double-double. We’re probably screwing the big fella here: 20-and-10 on 9-for-9 shooting, +33. But Gobert has plenty of these this season. Bogdanovic added 27 points, and Jared Butler had his own 10-assist night. Oh, and consecutive double-doubles for Whiteside. 

Jazz 111, Blazers 80: Juancho Hernangomez. Conley put on a master class in the late second quarte, creating a cushion the Jazz would never give back. Also, Gobert had a ridiculous 3.0 points per shot, needing just six field goal attempts to rack up 18 and 13. But blowouts like this give us a bit more space to be less literal about the usual Game Ball criteria, and it’s a good night to give props to the Spaniard. Hernangomez was actually a big key to “solving” the outside shooting slump, both because he broke out of it personally with a 4-for-7 shooting night and because he backcut his way inside when the other thing wasn’t working for the team as a whole. Most of his 22-and-8 line came in the first three quarters, so this wasn’t just blowout stat padding, either. Clarkson’s 9-11-4-3 line also deserves mention, and Rudy Gay was a positive despite unflashy numbers. 

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 105, Suns 111: Rudy Gobert. Gobert was probably the runner-up for all three game balls this week, so let’s give him some consolation props down here. He was the only starter who was remotely efficient (5/7 from the field for a 16-point night to go with 12 boards) and also had the best plus-minus of the opening five. Reserves Clarkson and House had the best plus-minuses, but the former is a sniper whose offensive game was off (2/10) and the latter is a defensive specialist who didn’t have his usual impact on defense. Gobert also held the Suns to 33% shooting when he defended the shot.

How the year’s Game Ball tally ended up: 49 imaginary Wilsons + 33 “Strong in Defeat” nods

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Strap in tight.

More schedule details could be made available as soon as Tuesday evening.

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

Gobert using a free throw in the season finale to join the top 10 scorers in franchise history reminded me that this year has produced a lot of milestones.

• 7,592: Gobert now ranks #10 in all-time Jazz scoring.
• 8,234: Mitchell also blew past Gordon Hayward for #8 all-time. Assuming he’s a healthy Jazzman next season, he’ll have a chance to finish 2022-23 as high as fifth on the franchise list.
• 2,000: Gobert finished the year with exactly 2,000 career free throws made, fifth among Jazz players all-time.
• 611: Gobert also cracked the top-10 list for games played, and while he was at it, also moved past Greg Ostertag for third on the all-time block list, and Mark Eaton for second in career rebounds.
• 544: Before he left Utah via trade, Joe Ingles had passed his old buddy Hayward for the 9th spot in the franchise steals list.
• 8,000: In March, Mitchell became the third fastest Jazz player to reach 8,000 career points, behind only Adrian Dantley and Pete Maravich.
• 45: Clarkson’s 45 points on March 14 were the most off the bench by a Jazz player ever. 
• 11: Bogdanovic also set a club record for threes in a game when he made “I think 11” on March 6.
• 958: Mitchell moved into second place for Jazz three-pointers, and inched closer to the record (1,071) held by former teammate Ingles. Bogey (5th) and Clarkson (10th) also both moved up that particular list. Clarkson’s streak of 99 consecutive games with a three ended in November.
• 17,000: Rudy Gay reached 17,000 career point, and Conley hit 14,000.
• 600: Snyder coached his 600th career game (he’s now at 636), and also passed Frank Layden for #2 on the games coached ranking. He also won his fourth Coach of the Month honors.

These are the good times. Whatever happens next, we’re watching franchise greats rewrite Jazz history.

That’s a wrap on another year of Salt City Sevens. Thanks for following along. That of course doesn’t mean we won’t be looking at all angles of the Jazz’s upcoming playoff run, but the SC7 is a regular season convention. Thanks for joining us for these last 24 weeks.