A Look at Rudy Gobert’s DPOY Chances, Part II: Impact

April 10th, 2022 | by Zarin Ficklin

Gobert remains an absolute defensive force for the Utah Jazz (NBAE via Heat.com)

The NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year race has shifted since we started our look at Rudy Gobert’s chances of a fourth award. The Jazz had a pair of miserable fall-from-ahead losses, and Gobert has slid outside the top three in most Vegas odds. Marcus Smart is the favorite, with Bam Adebayo and Mikal Bridges close behind. With the regular season nearly over, Gobert’s chances of nabbing his fourth DPOY trophy are now slim.

It’s disappointing, but many of the reasons Gobert now finds himself as a long shot were issues we examined as obstacles last week, including voter fatigue, team success, and narratives about Gobert’s playoff and perimeter defense.

Rather than bemoan the woes of voter fatigue and narratives surrounding guarding 1–5, let’s take this opportunity to appreciate Gobert and his impact, and in so doing make the case for why he still belongs in the conversation.

Overall impact

If you’re judging defensive impact by any sort of reputable statistics, Rudy is the clear leader. If you’re reading this, you probably already know that. Charts like this for numerous stats show Gobert as an outlier.

One stark number is the impact on the scoreboard when Rudy plays and Rudy sits. If you’ve watched the Jazz this season, you probably already know that too.

While this should be an argument benefiting Rudy, the truth is that Gobert would probably still be the frontrunner if Jazz’s overall defense or team record was better.

Perhaps no stat encapsulates Gobert’s imapct more than this one. This season Rudy’s guarded the second most shots in the league, while also holding opponents to the second closest field goal percentage. This is comparable to an offensive star shooting the second most shots at the second best efficiency. Only MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic is close to that.

A few of Gobert’s applicable season rankings are:

  • 14.7 Rebounds per game (1st)
  • 2.2 Blocks per game (3rd)
  • 36.4 Defensive rebounding percentage (1st)
  • 25.1 Total rebounding percentage (1st)
  • 4.1 Defensive win shares (3rd)
  • .265 Win shares per 48 minutes (3rd)
  • 103.5 Defensive rating (2nd)
  • 6.8 Defensive RAPTOR (1st)
  • 3.57 D-LEBRON (2nd)

And while they aren’t defensive numbers, Gobert is also ranked 1st in Field Goal Percentage, True Shooting Percentage, and Effective Field Goal Percentage. He’s having the most efficient season of all-time while scoring 15.5 points per game and improving his free throw shooting to a career high 69%.

Defensive versatility

Much ado has been made about defensive versatility and how many positions a player can guard. Other candidates have campaigned on this platform, and many try to detract from the French center’s case by claiming he’s not a versatile defender. This is simply not true.

According to NBA.com’s defensive dashboard, Gobert contests 5.2 3-pointers per game, holding opponents to 33.3% accuracy.

PlayerDefended 3-point field goal attemptsOpposing 3P%
Rudy Gobert5.233.3
Draymond Green5.035.8
Giannis Antetokounmpo5.036.0
Marcus Smart4.833.0
Mikal Bridges4.734.2
Bam Adebayo4.530.5

Not only does he contest more 3 pointers than any of his competitors, he allows one of the lowest field goal percentages. Of course there are other factors in defensive versatility beyond 3-point defense. If you watch the Jazz, you know he can guard any position. The Jazz system tries to keep him in the middle because that’s where he’s the most impactful, but he lockdown defense on Luka over multiple possessions was a good example of what he can do:

A quick word about the other candidates

All of Smart, Adebayo, Bridges, and Antetokounmpo are excellent defenders. In a breath of fresh air, Rudy himself acknowledged the strengths of other candidates. But I maintain the award should go to the player with the biggest defensive impact, and that is still Rudy Gobert.

Smart is an incredible perimeter defender, who is both quick and strong. While we’ve discussed the impact of perimeter versus interior defense, the biggest factor in Smart’s case is that he’s on the league’s best defensive team. There’s an argument teammate Robert Williams III has a bigger defensive impact. Williams was once a strong contender for the award, but after his injury Smart took the mantle. You could even argue Al Horford is the defensive leader of the team in Williams’ absence. But if voters want to reward the Celtics as a team with an individual award, Smart makes sense. If voters simply want to vote a different player archetype for variety’s sake, Smart makes sense. And to be clear, I have nothing against Smart. In fact, I had held hope the Jazz could make a trade for him before the Celtics instead regrouped and shot up the standings.

Bridges has a case similar to Smart’s. He’s an excellent perimeter defender who can guard multiple positions, and he’s doing it on the league’s second best defensive team. Adebayo is one of the league’s best centers and best defenders. His impact is better than both previously mentioned candidates. His team ranks fourth in overall defense. But compare him individually to Gobert and it’s hard to argue he’s a better defender.

If there’s going to be a non-Gobert winner, I’d pick Giannis, personally. He has much better defensive support than Gobert, but the fact that he impacts the defensive end so much while averaging nearly 30 points per game is really impressive. His overall effort is a big reason he’s a multiple MVP and NBA champion.

Gobert may not win the award this season, but once again, the numbers reveal him to be the most impactful defender, and deserving of a fourth Defensive Player of the Year honor.

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