Salt City Seven: Injury Hits Hot Jazz, Lottery History, Ode to Conley’s Passing & More

November 21st, 2022 | by Dan Clayton

Clarkson, celebrating here during a clutch win in Portland, will have more of a role while Conley heals. (Craig Mitchelldyer via sltrib.com)

Every Monday during the regular season here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven, with a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

After a relatively healthy first month of the season, the Utah Jazz finally got their first taste of bad injury luck. Despite a bout with COVID-19 and other illnesses that hit their deep bench, the main group has been mostly healthy up until now. Jarred Vanderbilt is the only one of Utah’s top eight rotation guys to miss multiple games so far, and Mike Conley Jr. had sat only once, for rest. 

But now the veteran guard is facing a longer absence: while he avoided any serious ligament damage in a non-contact injury to his left knee on Saturday, the one-time All-Star will be on the shelf for at least two weeks, Shams Charania reported.

Conley’s raw numbers won’t blow anybody away: he’s averaging the fewest points per game since he was 20, and he’s not having the same universally positive impact on guys’ net ratings. But Conley is in many ways the glue binding the Jazz team together. That starts with his playmaking, but it’s always gone way beyond the quantitative realm when it comes to Conley’s impact. His smarts, maturity and reads just make the Jazz better. That’s why impact stats still love him even during what otherwise looks like a down statistical year: he has the team’s best individual RAPTOR rating, second best EPM, third highest Total Points Added, and so forth.

Part of it is the monster season he’s having as a facilitator. We’ll pay homage to his passing later on in this column, but it’s worth examining just how perfectly Conley realizes Will Hardy’s basketball vision. The Jazz’s offense so far is built on a Princeton-esque foundation of screening, passing and constant motion.  In particular, they love to run multiple-screen sets on the side opposite the basketball and then cut off of the defense’s mistakes. Watch how often the initial action is something like this, with two, three or even four non ball-handlers converging away from the ball to start the play.

This clip doesn’t even show the early pindown screen set on Lauri Markkanen’s man. It slows down Torrey Craig just enough that he and Mikal Bridges botch their communication on the switch/stay decision as Markkanen approaches Conley. Then Markkanen fakes two screens, and because he doesn’t really make contact either time, the Suns aren’t on the same page as to whether to scheme the screen or just stick with their respective guys. This was in the final three minutes of a 2-point game!

On another play a quarter earlier, it was Markkanen who set the pindown for Clarkson. Then both guys went straight into a right-side stagger for Conley with the ball, but both slipped the pick. Defenders are still rushing to play catch-up from off-ball actions when they get thrown into fake on-ball screens, and it almost always results in confusion.

By the time enough defensive miscommunications occur, it looks like it’s easy work for Conley: just wait to see who goofs up on defense and deliver the ball. But when you consider all the different ways each player can react to each individual screening actions, the variables really add up. The Jazz offense is working so pristinely right now precisely because of who’s directing the orchestra. Conley has a running, innate sense for how the options are changing as the play unfolds.

For at least a little bit, those reads will belong to someone else. After Conley, the guys who generally possess the ball the most are Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton and Talen Horton-Tucker, three combo guards that are all at their best as ball-wielding drivers. But Clarkson and THT have both seen an increase in their playmaking duties, and both are posting career highs in per-minute assist rates. (Sexton still mostly drives to get to the rim or draw fouls, and that’s OK too.)

Further, the job of reading the defense and setting the table for others isn’t just a guard responsibility on this squad. Kelly Olynyk and even Vanderbilt spend a lot of time with the ball in their hands. Both bigs have more potential assists (passes that would have resulted in an assist if the shot had gone in) than anybody outside of Conley and Clarkson.

So the Jazz will see if they have enough of that specific brand of decision making expertise for their offense to remain elite — they have the #4 offensive rating head into Monday.

It’s a relief to the Jazz and their fans that Conley dodged a more serious injury. But after a month of wondering if the Jazz are real, we finally get to see how they’ll hold up against some tribulations.

In the words of Jazz players/people

“Lauri Markkanen is an All-Star. That’s it.”

-Vanderbilt, in a tweet after Markkanen’s 38-point performance vs. Phoenix

Holy Smokes, Lauri. Just when the Finnish big man was starting to look a little human with three consecutive games in the teens for scoring (all were losses), he just came alive. His 38 against Phoenix were a Jazz season high, and he has now gone over 30 more times in a month as a Jazzman (four) as he did in two seasons with the Cavs (three).

SCH writer Zarin Ficklin will have more to say soon about Markkanen and his All-Star case. For now, I’ll just leave you with some of his league ranks1 in a few all-in metrics:

  • EPM wins added: 8th
  • Win probability added: 13th
  • Win shares: 13th
  • TPA: 16th
  • VORP: 17th
  • EPM raw: 20th
  • RPM: 21st
  • RAPTOR WAR: 27th

At some point, what Vando said is not hyperbole: Markkanen absolutely deserves to be in the All-Star conversation.

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

47.9%

Another player who is red hot right now: Malik Beasley. The shooting specialist has hit nearly 48% of his threes in the last seven games, and is averaging 19.4 points per game in that span. He has scored 229 of his 253 points this season off the bench, more than anybody other than Indiana rookie Bennedict Mathurin and Dallas supersub Christian Wood.

52%

The Jazz turned 52% of their live defensive rebounds on Friday night into transition opportunities, a season high. Then one night later, they turned just 16.1% of rebounded Portland misses into transition plays, tied for a season low. But here’s what is interesting: they won both games. It just goes to show that the Jazz can adjust their game plan and can win in a variety of ways.

10.1

Nobody gives up fewer opponent threes per game than Utah’s 10.1. The degree to which that number holds up might well be what determines exactly how good this spunky Jazz are.

+32.8

Utah’s most used lineup that features at least three starters but no Conley is when Sexton supplants him next to Clarkson, Markkanen, Vanderbilt and Olynyk. That group has only played 42 possessions together, but if +32.8 so far, including a scorching offense and a shaky defense. The same group with THT in Sexton’s place is +79.1 in just 29 possessions, with an unsustainably hot offense and a really solid defense. It’s too early for those numbers to hold any predictive value, but one of those two is likely to be the new starting lineup when the Jazz suit up without Conley this week. Another option is to shift more ball-handling duties to Clarkson and activate Beasley, but that group has only played three possessions together.

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

At some point if you’re still debating whether the Jazz should shift their focus to maximizing draft odds, you’re asking the wrong question. At this point, the real question might be: could they, even if they wanted to?

With 18 games under their belt and a top-7 efficiency differential, the sample size on the best-in-the-west Jazz is getting fairly solid. They also have an increasing résumé of impressive wins, and lead the league in clutch victories after closing out eight of their 11 close games.

But mostly, it’s just really rare for teams to start this way and then fall apart. Only eight teams this century have started as well as the Jazz through 18 games and then missed the playoffs in that same season.

Only a few teams to start 12-6 or better missed the playoffs this century. (Click to view larger)

Of the eight teams to start this well, almost all had some major personnel changes and/or star injuries along the way. But more to the point, five of the eight landed in the late lottery, with records that would give them a 0.5 to 2.0% chance at the top pick in today’s lottery system.

Three teams started 12-6 and still landed themselves in the middle of the lotto odds chart, but all three saw their trajectory change at essentially this exact point of the season. And would ~5-8% odds at the top pick be worth spoiling all the fun and growth this Jazz team is experiencing? Maybe. Our own Riley Gisseman has hypothesized that the 7-10 range in pre-lottery draft order is the sweet spot for maximizing value.

But to even land there, these precedents tell us, the Jazz’s luck would have to change rather quickly. The ’05-06 Warriors went 2-8 immediately after their 12-6 start, flirted with the .500 mark for a month or so, then shut down Baron Davis early. That year’s Timberwolves went 3-11 after their 12-6 start, then traded multiple starters. Conley’s Grizzlies went 7-25 after their nice opening salvo, and then traded multiple key players and selectively rested Conley.

In other words, even mid-tier odds at moving up in the lottery probably depend on the Jazz getting much worse in a hurry, and there is nothing to indicate that’s about to happen — unless Conley’s two-week absence puts a dent in the invincibility of the league’s fourth best offense.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

Both of our Game Ball recipients this week are repeat performers.

Jazz 134, Suns 133: Lauri Markkanen. Easy. His 38 were a career high, a Jazz season high, and ridiculously versatile. His 15 buckets were: a righty drive, three catch-and-shoot threes, four easy finishes off cuts, a post iso jump hook, two gorgeous twisting finishes in traffic off the cut, a tip-in, a pull-up J, a lefty drive (spinning right), and of course that silly spin-move-to-fader to clinch it. Mali Beasley was also unconscious: 27 points, seven threes. Mike Conley deserves mention for busting things open early and logging his sixth 10-assist game already, and Jarred Vanderbilt’s 6-11-8 line catches the eye.

Jazz 118, Blazers 113: Jordan Clarkson. It feels brutal for Beasley to come up empty in the Game Ball department after scoring 56 points on consecutive nights. Clarkson’s finish was simply too good: eight points in a 64-second span after the Blazers had taken a late lead. Beasley was probably the actual game MVP by a nose (he had one more point than Clarkson on five fewer shots). But nobody impacted Utah’s likelihood of winning more than JC, and when we think of this game a month from now, we’ll think of Clarkson beating his chest during that closing run. Markkanen (23 and 10) is second runner up, and the other player Will Hardy called out by name was Horton-Tucker, who steadied things after Conley exited.

Strong in Defeat:

  • Jazz 111, Knicks 118: Kelly Olynyk. KO was a pretty easy choice as top performer in this one: the 27 and 11 were both season highs, and he also had the highlight of the night. Meanwhile, Conley’s shot was off, but 10-4-7-4 is a pretty fun line. And Simone Fontecchio instantly fit in during a 16-minute stint in Rudy Gay’s absence.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

This might be the toughest week of Utah’s schedule to date, with four games in four cities in six nights, and three of those against teams with top talent.

Monday 11/21, Jazz @ Clippers: The Jazz were spared the ordeal of facing Kawhi Leonard in their 110-102 victory earlier this month. Now Leonard is back, although he’s still playing a limited role as he eases back in. A bigger worry is that the Clips’ shooting has returned to form. Through that Jazz game, they had a bottom-5 percentage from outside at 32%, but they are shooting over 41% as a team during a 5-2 surge. Five rotation players are shooting between 40 and 50% during that 7-game span, with Paul George at 39.6%. 

Wednesday 11/23, Jazz vs. Pistons: What’s better on Thanksgiving weekend than reuniting with old friends? Bojan Bogdanovic makes his first return to Utah after a 3-year Jazz stint, and Alec Burks also comes back to his old stomping grounds. Those two average a combined 36 points per game as Detroit’s first and fourth leading scorers, but the Pistons have struggled this season. They’ve lost seven straight, 10 of 11, and 15 of 17. They own the league’s second-worst defense overall.

Friday 11/25, Jazz @ Warriors: The Jazz get their first crack at the champs, but this Warrior team has wobbled so far. They started 3-7 but since have won five of seven, mostly because Steph Curry is playing out of his mind. The 2-time MVP is averaging 34-6-8 (rounded) in this 5-2 spurt, with 59-49-85 shooting splits and a +13.7 net rating. Per Cleaning the Glass, GSW has had a top-5 offense and defense over the past two weeks, which corresponds roughly with them exiling former No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman. The departures of multiple rotation veterans from their championship squad has them relying more on young guys.

Saturday 11/26, Jazz @ Suns: This past week’s Jazz-Suns showdown was maybe the most entertaining game of the season thus far. But it didn’t feature Chris Paul, who is day-to-day and may find his way back by Saturday’s rematch. CP3 has had a career-worst year so far in terms of scoring, efficiency and box plus-minus, but some of that could be related to the heel that’s kept him out since November 7. Meanwhile, four of the Suns’ six losses have been a 1- or 2-point margin, so Phoenix is likely a better team than their record would indicate — and certainly better than their 4-5 record in the last nine.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

Conley’s 134 assists through 17 games are the most by a Jazz guard to start a season since Deron Williams in 2010, and only Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton has created more points with his assists this season than Conley’s 354.

Since that number will likely be frozen for a little while, this is a good time to recognize the veteran guard’s generosity and see who has benefitted most from his table-setting prowess.

Conley’s passing has generated a decent chunk of the Jazz’s top-4 offense.

Get well soon, Mountain Mike!

For those who celebrate, enjoy a safe and happy Thanksgiving!

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