On Markkanen’s Impact, Value and Potential All-Star Trajectory

Markkanen’s making a case for All-Star consideration. (Rick Egan, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen is having an incredible year. Even on surface level stats, it’s already a career season for the Finnisher (one of the league’s best nicknames, by the way):

A group of Salt City Hoops writers agreed before the season that Markkanen would probably be Utah’s most productive player. But it’s unlikely that anybody foresaw this level of production. Only nine other players are averaging at least 20 points and 8 rebounds per game, and of those nine, only two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokic is scoring more efficiently. Markkanen is eighth overall in Win Shares, and appears on many of the advanced stat leader boards. His rebound, assist, block, and foul-drawing rates are all up from last season.

Even beyond the raw numbers, a few things stand out about his game:

Usage and shot assisted

While Markkanen is putting up the scoring stats of a number one option, it still looks a little different from the prototypical wing-scoring superstar. Lauri has a usage rate of 24% (64th in the league) and 70% of his shots are assisted. For comparison, Donovan Mitchell had a usage rate of 33% in his final Jazz season, and only 29% of his shots were assisted.

Markkanen is getting his points within the framework of the offense, one that is designed to be more egalitarian than the Jazz’s Mitchell-focused system from last year. That makes sense since Mitchell is a clear tier above Markkanen as a pure offensive weapon, as good as Markkanen has been. But it also shows that Markkanen has plenty of opportunity to increase his ceiling. As the season goes on, we may see Markkanen increase his usage and create his own shot more often.

Whether he can be a number-one-guy on a contender remains to be seen, but he definitely looks like a number two or three guy. He takes advantage of the on-ball creation done by guards like Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson’s, playing off penetration as an elite finisher — ahem, “Finnisher.”

Mismatches

Markkanen has become a true mismatch nightmare for opposing teams. The idea of Lauri-at-5 lineups where he’s surrounded by four shooters remain intriguing, but so far he has split most of his time at the small and power forward positions. This allows the Jazz to generate mismatches, because when he is generally deployed with another seven-footer like Kelly Olynyk or Walker Kessler, he is often guarded by a smaller wing. Take his 38-point performance against the Suns last Friday: Torrey Craig was too short, Mikal Bridges too light, and Dario Saric too slow. Few players have the physical profile to effectively guard Lauri. Especially since he’s developed three-level scoring ability, with crafty moves at each level. You could see his diverse game on display against Phoenix.

oh and this @markkanenlauri guy had the clutch bucket + a 💜 CAREER HIGH 💜#TakeNote | @ZionsBank pic.twitter.com/6hTRXoRTn0

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) November 19, 2022

His role as a small forward in Cleveland felt off, but this may have been more about his limited offensive duties than his sharing the court with other seven-footers.

The defense!

Markkanen was not known as rim protector before his Jazz tenure. As our Dan Clayton pointed out earlier, Markkanen is a surprise newcomer to the top rim protectors list.

Last year – 67.8% allowed at the rim
'20-21 – 60.1%
'19-20 – 66.7%
'18-19 – 66.1%
'17-18 – 64.3%

So uh yeah, this new.

— dan c. (@danclayt0n) November 16, 2022

Markkanen still has one of the highest numbers of rim contests in the NBA at 104, although since Dan’s tweet his percentage has slipped slightly: to 55.8% opponent shooting, still sixth lowest among players who have challenged at least 90 shots at the rim. This is a big jump from his previous years, when he allowed between 60.1% and 67.8% at the rim.

Even if this continues to regress, Markkanen as an above-average rim defender is a huge development, especially as he’s proving the ability to play at the forward position. The previous iteration of the Jazz always longed for secondary rim protection, and Markkanen may be able to provide that.

All-Star Case

Multiple teammates have started the All-Star campaign for Lauri. What seemed like a fun longshot at the beginning of the season has become a real possibility. Beyond his incredible impact, Lauri has several things going for him:

• The Jazz are the story of the season, with the best record in the West. If the All-Star voting ended today, the Jazz would demand an All-Star representative for that alone.
• Utah is hosting the All-Star game. It’s not the strongest justification for All-Star status, but it doesn’t hurt.
• All-Star voting happens early in the season, and favors players with hot starts.
• There’s less competition for frontcourt spots.

Let’s look at who filled those frontcourt positions last year:

There are also two wildcard spots and potential injury replacement opportunities.

James and Jokic figure to be locks. Beyond them, the field is open. Neither Wiggins or Green are likely to return, with the struggling Warriors in 11th place. This could change, but it’s an uphill battle. Likewise, Gobert’s and Towns’ team has disappointed relative to expectations. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, or Anthony Davis are a few other household names whose teams have started slow and/or missed time.

Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are former All-Stars in the conversation. Fellow budding star Keldon Johnson is also knocking on the door.

It’s still early, but Markkanen is very much in the race. If voting happened today I think he’d make the team.

Markkanen’s Value

Markkanen is providing incredible value for his salary:

If he were a free agent next summer, he’d have a solid case for demanding a max contract deal starting around $40 million, with 8% raises each year. Instead, Utah has him locked in with team control at a range that is less than half what All-Stars make.

Building a championship contender requires both talent, and maximizing cap space with valuable deals. Markkanen’s contract situation provides Utah with a window of opportunity. If they can return to contention in the next few years they can take advantage of his value before he commands a bigger chunk of the salary cap.

While he looks to be a foundational piece to the Jazz, if traded he’d likely bring back multiple first-round picks. That makes the Mitchell trade even better for the Jazz in retrospect.

Whatever happens, the official Utah Jazz Twitter account said it well: the best is yet to come.

the best is yet to come🇫🇮#TakeNote | @MarkkanenLauri pic.twitter.com/NgESX7Ggr6

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) November 19, 2022