Five Schedule Observations & A Prediction

The Utah Jazz schedule kicks off on October 25. (Francisco Kjolseth via sltrib.com)

The NBA has just released the full schedule for the 2023-24 season, and it’s starting the feel like the season is just around the corner! Not including the Summer League, we haven’t seen the Utah Jazz on the court in just over four months. September is fast approaching and will bring media day and training camp, and then preseason games start in early October. In all, we’re just over two months from October 25, when the Jazz will kick off the season against the Sacramento Kings.

This upcoming season holds a lot of question marks. You can make the argument that the Jazz have one of the biggest swings in potential outcomes for record than any other team. You could tell me they are going to win 25 games, 35 games or 45 games and you could make a legitmate argument to support your case. Having the schedule does start to shed some light on what to expect during this upcoming season, including stretches that could be easier or harder than others. 

Here are 5 things to know about the 2023-24 Utah Jazz schedule, along with my prediction for their record.

art imitates life, as they say 🖼️👨🏻‍🎨

you are now entering the 2023/24 schedule release exhibit:#TakeNote | @artbutsports pic.twitter.com/ksSIxKUv8W

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) August 17, 2023

A compact version of the Jazz schedule.

1. Season begins on October 25 versus the Sacramento Kings

The Utah Jazz will kick off the preseason on October 10 in Seattle, playing against the Los Angeles Clippers. After four preseason games, the season will begin with a home game verses the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings were one of the feel good stories of last season. After 16 seasons, the longest playoff drought in NBA history, the Kings finally turned things around and made the playoffs as a 3-seed. They lost to the Golden State Warriors, but behind All-Stars De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, to go along with rising second year forward Keegan Murray, the Kings are set up to continue being successful for the next several seasons. 

Last year, the Jazz only went 1-3 against the Kings, but every game was extremely entertaining. The point differential in the four games was only a 2-point margin in favor of the Kings. It also included the heartbreaker where Lauri Markkanen seemingly won the game with a buzzer beater that was unfortunately a fraction of a second too late and got waved off.

The Kings scored 120.7 points per game and had an offensive rating of 119.4 last season, which both ranked first in the NBA. This will be a great early test for the Jazz, and will be a nice opportunity to learn how they can match up defensively against an elite offensive team. 

2. In-Season Tournament games

This season will mark the beginning of the In-season tournament for the NBA. There will be two stages: Group Play and the Knockout Rounds. The Utah Jazz will be a part of West Group A, along with the Grizzlies, Lakers, Suns and Blazers. 

Throughout the month of November, there will be “Tournament Nights” where all the regular season games played in the NBA will also count towards their group play record. The Jazz Tournament Night games will be the following dates:

• November 10 – @Memphis
• November 14 – vs. Portland
• November 17 – vs. Phoenix
• November 21 – @LA Lakers

Then during the week of December 4, and the team with the best record from each group and then two additional wild card teams will advance to the Knockout Rounds. Those eight teams will participate in a single-elimination tournament that will also count on their regular season win total, while the other 22 teams will get extra regular season games assigned to them that week. The only game that won’t double-count is the In-Season Tournament championship game on December 9, which will determine the winner of the NBA Cup. 

A lot of fans either don’t know much about the In-Season Tournament, or they think it is pointless. Just wait. The Jazz’s first two tournament games are against Memphis (without Ja Morant) and Portland (with Damian Lillard’s future unsure). If they win both, it’ll be hard to get swept up in the excitement and root extra hard for a win against the Phoenix Suns in a game that happens to be on ESPN and could put them in a position to be one of the eight teams to advance. 

3. Christmas Road Trip and Wemby

The Utah Jazz have a long standing tradition of typically spending the Christmas holiday in the midst of a long road trip. This season, that road trip will go from Decemer 20 through December 28, and the Jazz will play the Cavaliers, Pistons, Raptors, Spurs and Pelicans. The road trip starts off with a bang as the Jazz will face former face of the franchise Donovan Mitchell. The Jazz split the series with the Cavs last season, but Mitchell did average 34.5 points. That included a dazzling 46-point performance in his return to Utah, but the Jazz did win that game 116-114.

The next most intriguing game of the Christmas Road Trip is Utah’s first matchup against 2023 top pick Victor Wembanyama. Standing 7’5″ but somehow having the handles of a guard and the defensive prowess of Rudy Gobert, Wemby looks primed to be a generational talent for years to come. That said, his rookie season could bring a lot of up and down moments as he adjusts to the NBA size and talent. The Utah Jazz are actually one of the few team that can employ a variety of legitmate big men to give him a fits defensively. Between Walker Kessler (7’1″), Lauri Markkanen (7’0″), Kelly Olynyk (6’11”), Omer Yurtseven(6’11”), John Collins (6’10”), and Taylor Hendricks (6’10”), they have the size, length and athleticism to make life difficult for Wemby as a rookie.

The Jazz won’t get to see Wemby at home until February 25.

4. Who do the Jazz only play 3 times?

One thing I always take a look at when the new season schedules are released is which Western Conference teams the Jazz only have to play three times. The hope is that you get lucky and only have to play some of the best teams three times, thus maximizing your chance at winning more games. This season, the teams that the Jazz will only play three times are:

• Dallas Mavericks
• San Antonio Spurs
• Los Angeles Clippers
• Los Angeles Lakers
• Memphis Grizzlies
• Sacramento Kings

That plays out very well for the Jazz. Outside of the Spurs, every one of those teams is viewed as a playoff-level team, even Dallas. Which means they are still going to have four games against more beatable teams like Houston, Portland, and OKC. 

5. Home-heavy second half

Depending on how the first half of the season goes and if the Jazz are in a position to make a strong playoff/play-in push, the schedule looks like it is much lighter during February and March. They play 25 games in February and March, and 16 of those games will be played at home. Of the 9 road games, four are against teams that did not make the playoffs last season, and only three were better than a play-in team.

After the trade deadline and All-Star break is always an interesting time in the NBA. You start to see more and more teams writing off the season as a loss and willing to sacrifice a few games in an effort to drop in the standings and improve their draft position. The Jazz could theoretically be one of those teams. They do owe their first-round pick in next year’s draft to the OKC Thunder, but it is top-10 protected. Could be an incentive to lose if things start to spin the wrong direction, similar to last season.

Couple of things with that though. This upcoming draft is viewed as a weaker draft. If the Jazz were going to make a heavy push to make at least the play-in tournament, even knowing they would lose their pick to OKC, they are probably more comfortable with that outcome this season. So if they reach the trade deadline with a record hovering around .500, the schedule is set up nicely for them to make a strong push for the playoffs.

Jazz Record Prediction: 37-45

I usually keep it pretty simple when working to predict a team’s record for the season. First, I go through each opponent in order, and depending on how many times we play them that season, I decided what I would expect their record to be verses that one team. For example, if the Jazz play the Houston Rockets four times this season, I would guess they’ll have a 3-1 record. After doing that with every team, I go back through the actual schedule, so that I can start to factor in where home/road and rest advantage might factor in and swing a game the other way. 

After going through both those steps, and assuming health and no major impactful trades, I landed on the Jazz simply matching last season’s record of 37-45.

We’ll find out if I’m right, starting October 25.