Athletic Ranking Features Three Jazz Bigs — But Omits a Dynamic Guard

Markkanen and Kessler are two of the three Jazz bigs ranked highly by The Athletic. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

The player rankings that start to pop up at this time of year are time-consuming endeavors and very subjective, but they also do a fantastic job of sparking conversation. I would imagine that even those who compile the rankings would admit that you could easy change or adjust certain rankings, and they wouldn’t blame you. It does start to give you a good idea of each team’s potential and starpower, though. For example, heading into the 2020-21 season, the Utah Jazz finished had more players in Sports Illustrated’s ranking than any other team. They also finished with the league’s top record that season, after having seven of their players named in SI’s top 100: Derrick Favors, Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley, Joe Ingles, Bojan Bogdanovic, Donovan Mitchell, and Rudy Gobert.

In one of the first player rankings of the year, The Athletic’s Seth Partnow does things a little differently. Instead of just ranking players for his top 125, he does 5 player tiers, and then breaks those groups into three sub-tiers. That’s right, it’s tiers on tiers on tiers! Here is what he said on what is most important to him in these player rankings or tiers:

“These are not intended as rankings for a “franchise redraft” exercise, nor are they meant to represent trade value. Rather, the specific question being asked is: Assuming the player is healthy and paired with competitive teammates, which players provide the most value toward winning a title?”

Three Jazz players made Seth’s cut. Let’s dig into how we feel about their rankings, and maybe most importantly, touch on a Jazzman who was not included in the list.

Walker Kessler – Tier 5

Others in tier: De’Anthony Melton, Trey Murphy III, Malik Monk, Ivica Zubac, Grant Williams

Partnow on Tier 5:

“This tier is a mixture of promising youngsters on the way up (Bennedict Mathurin and Walker Kessler, for example), stars still finding ways to contribute at a moderately high level later in their careers (such as Klay Thompson and Kyle Lowry) and a group of excellent-but-not-quite-elite role players (including Quentin Grimes, De’Anthony Melton and Tobias Harris).”

Kessler even making this list says a lot of what people around the NBA think of him as a player and prospect. As Jazz fans, we maybe didn’t think much of Kessler being a monster on defense because we had just watched Gobert play in a similar style for the nine seasons prior. The Gobert trade appears to have brought the Jazz a younger version of Gobert, who seems to have a higher upside offensively. What was likely missed by some is that rookies don’t typically have the type of positive impact on defense that Kessler had.

Kessler was dominant as a starter through the end of the season. In those 34 games, he posted raw numbers of 12 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 3 blocks in only 28 minutes per game. Kessler had a +6.2 net differential overall, but a +4.6 differential on defense. That +4.6 defensive impact is in the top 15 percent of the league amoung bigs — not just rookies. He finished as one of the best interior defenders in the NBA. When on the floor, opposing teams attempted 2.8 percent fewer shots at the rim, which was in the 89th percentile for bigs. When on the floor, opposing teams shot 8.4 percent worse at the rim, and that was in the 99th percentile among bigs. Within six feet, opponents shot just 51.3 percent, which was fourth best in the league behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bismack Biyombo, and Jaren Jackson Jr.

We know what to expect from Kessler defensively. He has the talent and ability to be on one of the All-Defense teams as early as this upcoming season, and if the Jazz start winning, we should see him getting votes for Defensive Player of the Year.

The big question mark for Kessler will continue to be what constantly was asked about Gobert: can he do more on offense than just dunk? As a rookie, Kessler already showed an effective touch around the basket. He also did attempt a decent amount of shots in the mid-range (4ft-14ft), shooting 27-for-56 or 46% in that area on the floor. There have also been videos of him working on his three-point shooting stroke while playing for Team USA. 

Partnow said he automatically assumes sophomore players will make a jump in production and he factors that into his rankings. If Kessler can put up similar if not even slightly better numbers than he did as a starter last season, he could easily jump into one of the next two tiers in next seasons edition.

John Collins – Tier 4C

Others in tier – Jerami Grant, Tyler Herro, Bojan Bogdanovic, Zach Lavine, DeAndre Ayton

New to the Jazz this season, Collins’ ranking may have been a surpirse to some. After all, since his fantastic 2019-20 season, where he averaged 21 points and 10 rebounds per game, his scoring has dropped each season from 17.6, to 16.2, to 13.1 last season. Specifically, Collins was in Tier 4C, in a section titled, “Numbers over Impact.” Here is how he introduced this section of players:

“In general, I’m less enamored with guys who profile as moderately efficient scorers without offering much else. While this doesn’t perfectly fit this group of players — it doesn’t not do so. If there is another commonality here, it’s questionable defense…”

Seth did explain though that this list is a projection for next season. An argument can be made that Collins decline in play was more in part due to the envirmornment around him, coupled with a finger injury that limited his three-point shooting. Collins was a career 37.4 percent three-point shooter, but then shot just 29 percent last season due to his recovering broken finger. If his shooting comes back and Will Hardy puts him in a better position to utilize his strengths. I wrote a whole piece detailing the parallels of Lauri Markkanen and Collins, and the way Collins could potentially make a leap back to who he once was.

Can John Collins revitalize his career in Utah the way Markkanen did? Might sound like lightning striking twice, but @john_keeffer does the math in his latest for @saltcityhoops on why it wouldn't be crazy to see Collins get back to 18ppg territory.https://t.co/fe8NAmKNJp

— dan c. (@danclayt0n) July 28, 2023

For the optimist out there that believe the Jazz can be an above .500 team and compete for a playoff spot and not just a play-in spot, you likely have to believe Collins is going be closer to the player he was during the 2019-20 season. A better coach and a fresh start may be just the recipe for that to happen.

Lauri Markkanen – Tier 3B

Others in tier: Trae Young, Kyrie Irving, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Draymond Green, Pascal Siakam, Zion Williamson, Jalen Brunson, Lauri Markkanen

Prior to the start of last season, Markkanen was in Tier 5 of this list. The season before that? Not ranked. It has been an increble ascent for Markkanen into stardom for the Utah Jazz. 

I mentioned earlier the parallels between Collins and Markkanen. In his second season, the Finnish forward averaged 18.7 points and 9 rebounds. Between injuries and coaching doubt, Markkanen’s scoring and rebounding dipped to 14.3 points and 5.7 rebounds over the next three seasons. Clearly the talent was still there, but maybe he just needed the right situation and coach to unlock his full potential.

Then he was traded to Utah, and levies were opened. Starting last summer with his play in the FIBA EuroBasket tournament, he averaged 27.9 points, including a massive 43-point game verses Croatia. Apparently his play with the Finish National Team was just a preview of things to come, as he went on to average 25.6 points per game to go with 8.6 rebounds, shooting 39 percent from three-point range, and earning his first All-Star selection as a starter in Salt Lake City. 

Partnow on Markkanen:

“Lauri Markkanen was the breakout player in the NBA last year. He scored in multiple ways and at multiple levels…He continued to show some of the surprising defensive prowess that allowed him to survive and even thrive as a “small” forward in Cleveland’s monster starting unit in 2021-22, while his ability to move seamlessly across frontcourt positions promises Utah a wide variety of possible lineup options going forward. I would not be surprised to see him continue to climb in future editions if these improvements can translate to a postseason environment.”

One of the most impressive stats from Markkanen’s fantastic season is he became the first player in NBA history to make over 200 three-pointers while also finishing over 100 dunks. With the additional of Collins, plenty of shooting surrounding him, and another year to feel confortable being the number one option in Hardy’s offense, Markkanen may have the best chance at climbing even higher on this list.

Jordan Clarkson – Not Ranked

The hardest thing about making any list like this is that you have to set the cutoff line somewhere. There is always going to be an outraged fanbase because clearly you have it out for their team and players. That said, it is shocking to me that Clarkson did not make this list. 

Clarkson is coming off the best season of his career. Setting career highs in points (20.8), assists (4.4), and rebounds (4.0). Last season, 34 players averaged over 20 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assist per game. To be on a list that only features 34 players, but then to not be in a tier ranking that features the top 125 players just seems like a miss. 

To be fair, The Athletic’s ranking is based on what they are projecting for the upcoming season, so perhaps Partnow thinks this season will be a step back for Clarkson due to the addition of Collins, and maybe the expected rise in usage from other young players. Or, maybe they are heavily influenced by analytics, which have not always shown Clarkson in the brightest of lights. All thaty said, as someone who has watched nearly every game that Clarkson has played for the Jazz, he is certainly one of the top 125 players in the NBA.