Does a Dejounte Murray trade make sense?

Could Murray take the Jazz to the next level? (Scott Cunningham via hawks.com)

With the trade deadline imminent, it’s worth remembering that most rumored deals don’t happen, and the deals that do happen often are not always forecast. Remember both the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell deals happened with surprise partners despite heavy speculation pointed toward other franchises.

Another factor when evaluating trade rumors is the source — does a given reporter have a reputation of being plugged in with the Jazz? If not, could the rumor be driven by an agent or a rival team for their own motives?

With those caveats out of the way, one player who’s been consistently connected to the Jazz in the rumor mill is Atlanta’s Dejounte Murray. Certain outlets suggest the Jazz are one of the few teams to make an offer for the guard, and Vegas betting odds include Utah as one of his top possible landing points. Rather than focusing on how accurate these statements are, let’s look at whether Murray is worth targeting altogether.

The key stats on Murray:

• 6’5” height, 6’10” wingspan, 180lbs
• 27 years old
• Averaging 21.4 pts, 5.1 reb, 5.2 ast this season
• 47/37/83 shooting splits, 53.1 eFG%
• Will begin a 4-year, $120 million contract extension next season
• 1x time All-Star, 1x time All-Defensive team

At a glance, he looks a like a great fit. He’s young and locked into a long-term deal. He matches Lauri Markkanen’s timeline, and his extension helps the Jazz circumvent the free agency circus.

Murray has a well-rounded game. This is his third season averaging over 20 points per game, and on his best efficiency. He’s only two seasons removed from averaging over 9 assists, and the recent drop is due to playing next to another lead ball handler in Trae Young. He also has a defensive reputation and is a dogged competitor.

His length, passing, and defense gives him flexibility to play the lead guard role, as he did in San Antonio, or a combo guard like he plays in Atlanta. You could see him coexisting in a lineup with Collin Sexton or Keyonte George. Sexton has thrived as a small shooting guard in the starting lineup, so finding a complementary player is a nice-to-have. Murray has experience with former teammate John Collins. And further, Markkanen can only benefit from a pass-focused point guard, even though he improbably remains uber-efficient in the Jazz’s post-Mike Conley Jr. era.

Jazz coach Will Hardy was also on the Spurs’ staff for the first five years of Murray’s career, so he would have a unique perspective on Murray’s fit in more intangible areas.

It appears like Murray is a slam-dunk target. But there are other factors to consider.

While Dejounte can score, his efficiency is still below league average: .561 true shooting. While he’s averaging a career best in three-point percentage and attempts per game, he’s more comfortable in the mid-range.

As often happens, his defensive numbers have dropped since he’s become a 20ppg scorer. Steal rate, block rate, and defensive box plus minus are all much lower in Atlanta than his peak San Antonio seasons.

Some of this could be chalked up to his role in Atlanta. He’s playing next to the heliocentric Young, and always tasked with the toughest guard assignment. In Utah, he’d likely be the lead point guard and may have less of defensive burden depending on the lineups (for example, Murray’s improved shooting ability over Kris Dunn may allow for Walker Kessler to return to the starting lineup).

The other factor is cost. The Jazz have accumulated a war chest of assets that they can cash in the right time. Given Markkanen’s current level, it seems like the Jazz would like to compete as soon as they can, something the rumored Jrue Holiday interest would corroborate. There’s also argument to seed well enough this season to allow their first rounder to convey to Oklahoma City this season, in a weaker draft. We can also surmise that the Jazz don’t want a premature rebuild that lands them in perpetual competition for the playoffs, but not good enough to truly contend. You could argue the Jazz should be sellers or buyers in this deadline. So it’s complicated.

How does Murray fit into that tangled situation? In theory, he’s a young complementary player on a long-term deal. He can do a lot of useful things on the court, and still has room for growth. I can absolutely see him as a potential core piece. That said, I wouldn’t bet on Murray and Markkanen alone headlining a championship roster. So acquiring Murray should be done with enough trade capital left over to target a capital-S Superstar in the future.

A core of Murray, Markkanen, George and Kessler could be an excellent supporting cast for a dynamic wing star — whenever one becomes gettable.

But price is likely the biggest question mark. What do the Jazz find palatable? Is a young player and multiple firsts too pricy? At some level the Jazz can afford to be patient, but there are arguments to cash in chips when a young All-Star player who checks a lot of boxes becomes available. If the Holiday intel is accurate, it would suggest that the Jazz aren’t afraid to kick the tires on the right kind of win-now deal.