Salt City Seven: Pick Watch, Evaluation Season, Jazz Madness & More

The Jazz are heading into their final four weeks of the season.

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz. 

OK, at 6.5 games out of the play-in, it’s probably safe to admit that the standings watch exercise is now fully about the Jazz’s pick, which they’ll keep if they’re inside the top 10 *after* the May 12 draft lottery.

So how’s it looking?

Tracking all three Utah draft assets

All of the teams immediately around Utah have motivation to win: Atlanta and Chicago because they’re still in the play-in range, and Brooklyn and Houston because they don’t control their own picks. The next closest teams to the Jazz are across a 6.5-game chasm: GSW and LAL in one direction, Memphis and Toronto in the other. Even counting those four, Utah has the hardest remaining schedule by far of the nine teams with records between .338 and .530.

Meanwhile, the OKC/LAC pick won’t realistically slip lower than #29, with Boston sitting six full games ahead of the Thunder. That pick could get marginally better if Denver and/or Minnesota catches the Thunder. Also root for Cleveland to keep some pressure on Milwaukee for the #2 seed.

Neither Washington nor Detroit should care too much about winning or losing. Both teams owe their second-round picks, and since the lottery odds are flat across the top three, their chances at the #1 overall pick aren’t going to get any worse (or better) than they are today. At any rate, the Pistons and Spurs are trending up, and the Wiz are… not.

A quick look at the big, burning question of the moment in Jazzland

If, per the section above, we assume that the goals for the rest of this season are clear, then it’s now fully evaluation season.

For the last two games, the Jazz have fielded a 10-man rotation that included three rookies and three two-way players. Add in second-year center Walker Kessler and 70% of the rotation in recent games has been made up of “show me” minutes.

Brice Sensabaugh (16), Taylor Hendricks (15), Johnny Juzang (19) and Micah Potter (11) have all posted career scoring nights in the past 10 days, and Keyonte George is getting used to life as a primary weapon. Sprinkle in some Jason Preston and it’s been a full-on youth movement.

That may change as All-Star Lauri Markkanen prepares to come back from a quad contusion, but the Jazz have embraced this opportunity to learn more about some guys who have either been on the fringes or have been operating in lesser roles. The timing is great, because the Jazz actually have some decisions to make in the next few months. As odd as it feels to start talking about offseason stuff with 15 games to go, the reality is that the Jazz have to use these final 4 weeks to inform some transactional decisions that will have to be made in the not-too-distant future.

Teams can’t keep the same guy on a 2-way contract for more than two seasons, which mean that the Jazz have to decide soon whether to bring Potter and Juzang back on standard NBA contracts. They can retain matching rights to both players, but only if they issue them a qualifying offer (QO) of a standard contract with a little over $93K guaranteed.

Preston can be made a restricted free agent with a QO of just a two-way contract with a cap-neutral $78K guaranteed, so the need to 

2. Free agents

The Jazz probably have the information they need to make decisions about pending free agents like Kris Dunn and Talen Horton-Tucker, who are or have been in the rotation. By contrast, Luka Samanic has 237 minutes, and the Jazz might want to collect a little more information about him at some point. In the last two games, the Jazz shifted those opportunities to Sensabaugh after Samanic had shot 32% and 23% from three in his previous five, but the Croatian forward may get another shot at some point to bolster his case. All three are unrestricted free agents.

Kira Lewis Jr. on the other hand could be made a restricted free agent, but only if the Jazz tender him a $7.7 million contract that he could (and likely would) simply sign on sight. Lewis’ NBA résumé doesn’t really justify that kind of offer, and the fact that he’s only played seven total minutes with the Jazz is probably an indication that he might not be a major part of the plan moving forward anyway.

3. Non-guaranteed contracts

The Jazz also have three decisions to make relating to non-guaranteed contracts. Omer Yurtseven is fully non-guaranteed at $2.66 million. He’s been fairly solid when he’s been called upon, so much so that it would frankly be difficult to find a much better third center at what is basically veteran-minimum money. The only real argument against keeping him on the roster is the opportunity cost: you could instead choose to use that roster spot to take another swing with upside in mind.

Darius Bazley and Kenneth Lofton Jr. are also both guaranteed, at least until late July when both guys get part of their salaries locked in. As of now, the Jazz appear to want to kick the tires on them in a G League context so they can get closer looks at Juzang and Potter. That makes sense. A lot of teams actually converted their two-way guys and then backfilled them with guys who would accept the resulting open two-way spot. But by the time the Jazz signed Bazley and Lofton, the date had passed to sign new two-way deals, and at any rate, the Jazz were able to use their room exception to juice both guys’ salaries for this season, something they couldn’t have done on a two-way. For Potter and Juzang, there’s no financial difference between getting converted on the prorated minimum or simply spending the rest of the season up with the Jazz; they’ll get the same per-day pay either way. So signing Bazley and Lofton and then assigning them to the G League allowed the Jazz to accomplish essentially the same thing but perhaps get better players than those who might have said yes to a two-way.

Of course, there is one other non-guaranteed contract on next season’s books, but that’s an easy decision…

4. Renegotiate and extend Markkanen

The Finnish forward’s partially guaranteed $18 million figure is a bargain for a top 30 player. The Jazz guaranteeing that amount is the easiest decision they’ll make all year.

The larger question with Markkanen is about how to wield the renegotiate-and-extend tool to lock Lauri in long term. The Jazz could have tens of millions in cap room, which they can use to increase his 2024-25 salary and then extend him based on that new cap figure for as many as four additional years. The earliest they could formalize such an agreement is August 6.

Again, this is pretty early to go into full-blown offseason mode. Even though the Jazz are playing out the string, I’m not mentally ready to skip over 720 minutes of basketball, but I have heard the requests and I will do this soon. Short version for now: unless some opportunities come along before August 6 that are simply too good to pass up, the Jazz will likely have the ability to make Markkanen a very happy long-term Jazzman.

Those aren’t the only things. There are dozens of other questions, big and small, about how this guy fits with that guy, whether Player X will have a more promising future in this role or that role. But the guys above are tied to actual contractual decisions that have fast-approaching dates attached to them. That’s why I’m not terribly surprised to see them lean more into minutes for the likes of Juzang, Samanic, Potter, Yurtseven, etc.

Telling or interesting words from Jazz people

“Stats don’t mean shit… There will not be free minutes in this program. So you’re either going to start learning, and you’re going to start playing the right way, and you’re going to start participating with your teammates, or you’re not going to play.”

-Will Hardy, particularly perturbed after a Jazz loss to Minnesota

The Jazz had just fallen to 3-12 in their previous 15 when Hardy uncorked this in his postgame presser on Saturday. So there were probably a lot things he could have been pointing to. But what seemed to bother the second-year coach more than anything was the lack of ball movement.

“Plain and simple: tonight we did not pass the ball,” he said. “There’s 30 possessions you could point out where there’s multiple people open and we’re just forcing it.”

He said there were specific approaches discussed in shootaround and film sessions in terms of how to deal with Minnesota’s top-ranked defense, and they weren’t applied to the game. Specifically, Jazz attackers were repeatedly testing good, long defenders when teammates were open. As the DNews’ Sarah Todd pointed out, there were plenty of culprits.

At the same time, it’s hard not to notice that this tirade came in a game when George got pulled early after an 0-for-5 fourth quarter that included a couple of possessions matching that “multiple people open and we’re just forcing it” description. Hardy mentioned that at one point, George failed to execute a specific action out of a timeout.

George has been on a special run lately: 25.8 points in his last five games, not counting the one where he left early due to injury. It’s pretty meaningful that Hardy is choosing, even in the middle of a hot stretch, to send the rookie a stern message about how to play the right way.  

“I hold Keyonte to a high standard,” the coach said.

Stats that tell the story of the week

0

We saw a lot of completely new Jazz iterations this week, including a 4-guard lineup (George, Dunn, Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson) that had never shared the court together, or the three rookies who had played together but never started in the same opening five until doing so in the latest two games.

14

The Jazz allowed Boston to make 14 threes in the first half alone, the third straight game in which their opponent scored at least 39 from behind the arc in the first half. In all, six straight Jazz opponents made 10 or more before the break, until Minny managed just six on Saturday. Boston shot 17 more threes than the Jazz for the game, which allowed them to secure a +15 advantage in that department despite the fact that Utah shot a much higher percentage (46.9% to 40.8%).

56-34

Utah’s 22-point paint point advantage against Atlanta was just enough to offset the Hawks’ 18-point advantage in points scored from deep. Ironically, it was guard George who accounted for the biggest chunk of those 56 paint points (12). Utah’s 24 fast break points (fifth most this season) also had a lot to do with their paint prowess, and Sexton was the primary contributor there, with eight on the break.

-39

On the other hand, there was no overcoming the 57-18 deficit from deep on Saturday night. Only five teams this year have outscored their opponents by more than those 39 points from the 3-point line in a road game: the Bucks (twice), Pacers (twice), Warriors, Cavs and Celtics.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win

Just one Game Ball this week

Jazz 124, Hawks 122: Keyonte George. Two-way players Juzang (19) and Potter (11) had career highs, but giving this to anybody other than Keyonte would be overthinking it. Actually, my runner-up would be Sexton anyway: 21-4-6, and his steal-and-reverse-jam sequence in the final three minutes was a back-breaker. But George’s superb 12-point quarter was what turned the game around, and the Jazz never trailed after that. In all, a 25-point, 5-assist effort for the rook. John Collins also deserves mention after posting 18 and 11.

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 107, Celtics 123: Collin Sexton. Utah’s two leading scorers in this one (George and Clarkson) were both minus-twenty-something for the game, which is as much about the mean, green machine and the timing of the 20-0 Celtics run that put the game away. Still made it hard to justify going to those two, who had 26 and 21, respectively. Sexton was a big part of making it close again in the third quarter (before that monster run) and finished with 20-7-5 and a livable minus-8.
• Jazz 100, Wolves 119: Collin Sexton. Sexton tied for his second-best assist output of the season. Even thought a few of those came late when the result was obvious, it felt notable that he was looking to move the ball on a night his coach railed a lack of passing. (Actually, Collin was the first player Hardy mentioned as having played well.) The other candidates were Hendricks (15 and 10) and Yurtseven (6-for-7 shooting for 14).

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of action

Utah wraps up a homestand with a Jazz-Wolves sequel and then heads out on the road for three straight. Here are a couple of sentences about each of this week’s games.

• Monday 3/18: Jazz vs. Wolves. Quarters 5 through 8 of this 96-minute affair could look vastly different from Saturday’s portion, as both Markkanen and Rudy Gobert have been upgraded to questionable. Utah hung with Minny through the first half on Saturday, but has now lost four straight overall to the Wolves, including all three meetings this year.
• Wednesday 3/20: Jazz @ Thunder. OKC will be riding a 12-3 wave and benefitting from three solid days of rest by the time they host Utah on Wednesday. Markkanen’s 33-and-11 helped the Jazz sneak from behind before the trade deadline, which snapped a 5-game skid to these youthful contenders.
• Thursday 3/21: Jazz @ Mavericks. The Mavs’ Sunday night squeaker against the champs made them 5-1 in their last six (the only loss being a game Luka Doncic sat), but right before that they were 1-5. Similary, the Jazz-Mavs matchups this year have been wildly hot-and-cold: a 50-point Mavs victory followed by the Jazz winning by 37.
• Saturday 3/23: Jazz @ Rockets. Houston has won seven of its last eight, including a 4-0 starting with the game in which their best player, Alperen Sengun, got hurt. That’s partially because Jalen Green has been hooping (24.6ppg in the surge), but Houston’s still a bottom-7 offense even though they’re plucky at the other end.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

It’s tradition: here’s where the Jazz’s alma maters will be big-dancing when the NCAA Tournament starts this weekend.

• Among Jazz players, Kessler is associated with the highest 2024 seed, but only sort of. He played a very small role for #1 seed UNC before transferring to Auburn for his sophomore season. Auburn’s a #4 seed.
• Markkanen’s Arizona and Horton-Tucker’s Iowa State are both #2 seeds. In fact, the Wildcats will open in Salt Lake City, but Markkanen and the Jazz will be on a 3-game road trip. If Arizona makes it to the Sweet 16, Markkanen and George could have some friendly trash talk because…
• …George’s Baylor program is a #3 seed in the same West quadrant of the bracket.
• Juzang is better known for his time at UCLA, which won’t be dancing this year, but he also came off the bench for a year at powerhouse Kentucky, and they’re also a #3 seed.
• Sexton’s (and Lewis’) Alabama is a #4 seed, like Kessler’s more recent school, Auburn.
• Potter’s (and Sensabaugh’s) Ohio State didn’t make it, but Potter more recently attended Wisconsin, which will enter the tournament as a #5 seed.
• Yurtseven’s most recent school, Georgetown didn’t make it, but he actually played twice as many years at NC State, which is an #11 seed this year.

Collins’ Wake Forest, Dunn’s Providence, Sensabaugh’s (and Potter’s) Ohio State and Hendricks’ UCF are all NIT-bound instead.

Clarkson (Tulsa/Missouri), Preston (Ohio) and Lofton (Marshall) won’t have any direct rooting interest in this year’s NCAA or NIT brackets. Juzang’s UCLA and Yurtseven’s Georgetown are also done for the year. Samanic and Bazley didn’t play college ball.

Just 15 left for the Jazz.