State of the Jazz: Losses keep adding up

The struggling Jazz don’t have a guaranteed win left on the schedule, writes Steve Godfrey. (Francisco Kjolseth, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Even with a generational talent on their roster, the San Antonio Spurs were still just 16-56 heading into a game against the not-as-lowly home team. 

Yet, it was still a loss for the Jazz, their seventh straight. 

Maybe you’ve heard: the Jazz have the worst record in the league since the All-Star break (3-14). They are moving players on and off the injury report, calling up dudes from the G League, filling empty roster spots with minimum contracts, and changing up their rotation nearly every game. During Wednesday’s loss, the Jazz couldn’t find any rhythm, so 12 different dudes played minutes in the first quarter alone. 

On paper, the Spurs should have been another mark in the win column for the Jazz. While it ended up as their closest loss in this skid, 118-111, they only led the game once and were down by double-digits for most of the 48 minutes. Victor Wembanyama was sensational with 19 points, eight rebounds, six assists, and five blocks, but other Spurs players truly roasted the Jazz, such as Devin Vassell scoring 31 points or the entire team shooting nearly 50% from deep. It was a team win, and it was a team loss for the Jazz. 

A few weeks ago, the Jazz beat the Hawks by two. It was March 15. Could that be their last win of the season? 

A month ago, it would have been easy to see Friday’s matchup against Houston as another winnable game. But now, the Rockets are on a surge. They’ve won 10 straight, averaging 124.3 points each game while shooting 49.3% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 110.2 points. A prime example of Houston’s firepower came in a 147-119 victory over Utah just a few games ago. Burgeoning star Jalen Green popped off for 41 points, steady point guard Fred VanVleet added 10 made threes, while veteran Jeff Green was dusted off the shelf for 21 points. 

Conversely, during the last 10 games for the Jazz, they can barely get to 110 points and allow opponents to hit 123 a game. Just like the rotational pieces, the team defense has been in and out, shaky and rusty, with no cohesion. In the high-scoring NBA, allowing 27 made threes (like they did against Houston) or 40 assists on 44 field goals (like against the Spurs) is no recipe for success. Team defense wasn’t necessarily the strongest in the league before the All-Star break, but the leaks are certainly more pronounced now. Opponent field goal percentage, opponent three-point percentage, and opponent assists and rebounds are all higher than at the beginning of the season. 

It seems like the playoffs have faded from the Jazz’s road map, with a tank job seemingly in the works since the trade deadline. If the Jazz’s own draft pick lands outside the top 10 after the lottery, they’d have to send it to OKC to satisfy a 2021 salary dump. Utah’s 3-16 slide seems to have made that possibility less likely as the Jazz are currently slated with the ninth best lottery odds, and they have a high probability to pick 8th when the draft rolls around. The loss to San Antonio officially eliminated a play-in dance as an outcome for this season. 

March ends with a date in Sacramento, another team that can score and move the ball, and then April will test the Jazz with seven games before the season ends. The lineup for those seven games includes all teams above them in the standing: the Cavs, Clippers twice, Warriors twice, Nuggets, and another round with the Rockets. Only the Cavs, Nuggets and Rockets games are at home.

Making it worse, don’t expect those teams to sit down the stretch, either. The Clippers are fighting to rediscover their groove and secure homecourt advantage, currently sliding and only a game ahead of the streaking Pelicans. The Cavs are getting Donovan Mitchell back, and are hoping to nail down the third seed and avoid the Boston Celtics’ side of the playoff bracket. The Rockets are making an unlikely run to a play-in berth, hoping to oust Golden State out of the last spot in the west. Perhaps the Nuggets will lay low, but they are also in playoff seeding rodeo, flip-flopping with both Minnesota and OKC for the first spot in the west. Granted, ESPN’s projections currently predict the Jazz’s end-of-season record to be 31-51. 

The Jazz went 37-45 last year, with most predictions giving the o/u on 2023-2024 wins at a modest 34.5. Ever the optimistic Jazz fan, I thought the over was likely. With 29 wins on the record now, I’m not confident like ESPN and feel especially nervous about 30. Looking at the last stretch, is there a game that should pencil in a soft win? If you’ve watched any Jazz basketball lately, that’s a tough task to do.