Trade Board: Difference Makers With Years Left

Difference makers with years left under contract.

The free agent board is up, just in time for the NBA’s busiest transaction window. But it’s just as likely that the Utah Jazz make their biggest summer splash on the trade market — as early as around this week’s NBA Draft.

So to accompany the free agent tracker, here’s a board with players who have enough remaining contract to be particularly interesting to the Jazz. Any parameters we put on contract length would be somewhat arbitrary, but since there’s no way we’re tracking all ~350 players under contract leaguewide, let’s zoom in at first cut on anybody with at least three team-controlled years left on their deal. That gives a team in a non-glamour market enough time to sell a player on their vision and culture.

There are around 100 players in the league who have contracts spanning three or more seasons past this one, not counting PO/ETO years. Those players are grouped below in a way that makes sense by tier and/or macro situation, and then ordered within their cohort by 2023-24 EPM wins added.

Down below, we’ll also take a quick look at the best guys with two years remaining.

Last updated 7/31 at 2:12 p.m. MDT.

Young MVP candidates

The guys in this category are virtually untouchable. There are seven players who appeared on multiple MVP ballots, and they’re all under 30. Jalen Brunson and Jayson Tatum each have one year plus a player option (PO) remaining. The other five are:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 20.5 EPM wins, 3/$115M remaining
• Luka Doncic, 19.6 EPM wins, 3/$138M remaining
• Nikola Jokic, 18.6 EPM wins, 3/$166M remaining (+ a PO)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo, 18.4 EPM wins, 3/$169M remaining (+ a PO)
• Anthony Edwards, 13.6 EPM wins, 5/$246M remaining

We’re not going to waste a ton of ink analyzing this group. It’s supremely unlikely Utah gets a readymade top-10 player via trade, because players like this don’t really move unless they force the issue. What this group does do is inspire hope that a non-lottery pick (like Jokic or Giannis) could ascend to stardom, or that the Utah could acquire a player who still has superstar upside… like when OKC got a 20-year-old prospect coming off a 10.8-ppg season after being picked 11th. Now he’s one of the game’s top stars.

Awesome, but older

Next comes the tier of guys who do have 3+ years of contract left and are star-level players, but might not be ideal Jazz targets because of their age.

• Kawhi Leonard, 13.8 EPM wins, 3/$150M remaining, 33 years old
• Anthony Davis, 13.8 EPM wins, 3/$163M remaining (+ a PO), 31 years old
• Jrue Holiday, 7.2 EPM wins, 3/$97M remaining (+ a PO), 34 years old
• Draymond Green, 5.3 EPM wins, 3/$78M remaining, 34 years old

Leonard and Davis were both second-team All-NBA this season, while Holiday and Green are past All-Stars who still imprint their identities on their teams, especially on defense. But once you acquire a 30-plus star, you’re pretty committed to the near term. So the question here probably boils down to whether any of these guys makes the Jazz seriously competitive when paired with Lauri Markkanen. If the answer is no, then you’re putting yourself in a tricky spot having to hasten the search for a third star before the health and/or starpower of the new acquisition fades. 

The legit stars

Next we come to the group of top 20ish players. All of these guys have made multiple All-Star teams. They’re also all 28 or younger. One of these seven hitting the market is only slightly less of a pipe dream than SGA, Giannis, Luka, Joker or Ant.

• Devin Booker, 12.9 EPM wins, 4/$223M remaining
• Tyrese Haliburton, 12.8 EPM wins, 5/$246M remaining
• Domantas Sabonis, 11.3 EPM wins, 4/$186M remaining
• Jaylen Brown, 9.4 EPM wins, 5/$288M remaining (can’t be traded until 7/26)
• Zion Williamson, 7.8 EPM wins, 4/$163M remaining
• Karl Anthony Towns, 7.6 EPM wins, 4/$221M remaining
• Ja Morant, 1.1 EPM wins (but for… reasons), 4/$163M remaining

Let’s not overthink it: if Utah gets a legitimate chance at acquiring a multiple-time All-Star with a long-term contract, they’re going to consider it. KAT (who Minnesota reportedly prefers to keep anyway) might be the most questionable fit next to Markkanen. Morant is complicated and Williamson has injury stuff. But if anybody here is gettable, the Jazz would think long and hard about any of these opportunities, just from a talent upgrade standpoint.

Borderline stars & very good role players

Here’s where it starts to get interesting — because some of these guys might be more realistic targets.

These might not feel on the surface like what Danny Ainge described as “big-game” targets, since they are largely non-star players (there are a few 1-time All-Stars in here). But some of these guys really contribute to winning. This group is where you’d go hunting for a guy who might have another level in him, like Markkanen did when the Jazz traded for him in 2022. (Markkanen posted 5.3 EPM wins in the pre-trade season, so right around the median for this tier.)

Because of that, we’re going to give this group of players the same treatment we gave the free agents: here’s a Jazz-focused line of analysis on each one, which we’ll update if/when more info comes out about anybody’s potential availability.

• Bogdan Bogdanovic, 8.7 EPM wins, 3/$49M remaining (last is TO): He’s one of the league’s very best reserves, a playmaking wing who can shoot — but he’ll also be 32, so he doesn’t have a ton of unexplored upside left.
• Michael Porter Jr., 7.8 EPM wins, 3/$115M remaining (last is partially guaranteed): He’s only been in Denver, so it could be interesting to see if the 26-year-old can do more than thrive in the Jokic ecosystem.
• Dejounte Murray (traded to New Orleans), 7.6 EPM wins, 4/$114M remaining: Nobody met Atlanta’s asking price in February, and my guess is the Jazz’s interest was and is price-dependent since he might not elevate a team by himself. He’ll be 28.
• Max Strus, 7.5 EPM wins, 3/$48M remaining: He’s not going to suddenly become a star at 28, but Strus has shown in two spots now that he can really help a team in a 5th starter/high-end reserve type of role.
• Herb Jones, 7.4 EPM wins, 3/$42M remaining: He’s not a star in the traditional sense, but a first-team All-Defense selection and a top-5 DPOY vote getter can affect games in his own right, and he’ll be just 26.
• Donte DiVincenzo, 7.1 EPM wins, 3/$36M remaining: He’s historically been a 4th/5th starter type, but injuries in Gotham opened the door for him to show more: he averaged 21-4-3 since turning 27.
• Devin Vassell, 6.5 EPM wins, 5/$135M remaining: Nearly 24, Vassell showed more versatility this year as the Spurs increasingly put the ball in his hands and he answered with 4 assists a game, in addition to his gravity as a shooter.
• Lu Dort, 5.8 EPM wins, 3/$52M remaining (last is TO): The 25-year-old is more of a bruiser than a stopper (he’s never made all-defense, for example), but he just had his best 3-point shooting season at 39.4%.
• Aaron Nesmith, 5.6 EPM wins, 3/$33M remaining: Nesmith just made a fun jump, showing more defensive prowess and knocking down 42% of his threes… which is why Indy probably values him too much heading into his age-25 season.
• Desmond Bane, 5.5 EPM wins, 5/$197M remaining: Bane’s raw scoring was up but his efficiency dipped as he had to shoulder a heavier load with Morant and others ailing, but he’s a borderline star at 26.
• Grayson Allen, 5.5 EPM wins, 4/$64M remaining: The former Jazz pick will turn 29 before the season, and just led the league in 3-point percentage while scoring a career-high 13.5 a game.
• Deni Avdija (traded to Portland for two 1sts), 5.4 EPM wins, 4/$55M remaining: He had a heck of a close to the season (19-9-4 after the trade deadline) and he’s still just 23, although his profile does overlap with Markkanen’s some.
• Payton Pritchard, 4.8 EPM wins, 4/$30M remaining: If his size doesn’t bother you (he’s listed 6’1″), this is a value contract, because he’s a 26-year-old guy who consistently plays winning ball in limited minutes.
• Josh Hart, 4.3 EPM wins, 4/$81M remaining (last in TO): Like Bogdanovic above, he’s a little older (29) and more of a high-minute reserve, but he’s an elite rebounder for his size and a do-it-all scrapper. 
• Tyler Herro, 4.2 EPM wins, 4/$93M remaining: A 24-year-old who has averaged 20+ in three straight seasons has some value, it didn’t seem like the Jazz were salivating when he was reportedly available last summer.
• Darius Garland, 4.1 EPM wins, 4/$163M remaining: Another Cleveland reclamation project seems unlikely, though it’s worth noting that the trio of Garland (24), Markkanen and Collin Sexton only played six games together due to injury.
• RJ Barrett, 4.0 EPM wins, 3/$83M remaining: The Jazz either really liked Barrett in 2022 or just wanted him in a trade package for asset reasons — either way, he’s 24 and has average 20-5-3 over three seasons.
• Vince Williams Jr., 4.0 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (last is TO): Memphis’ situation makes it hard to know what’s real here, but the almost-24-year-old really responded to opportunity with an efficient, all-around season.
• Jaden McDaniels, 3.7 EPM wins, 5/$131M remaining: Like Herb above, McDaniels is good enough defensively (second team All-D as he approaches 24 years old) to warrant attention here, and he’s a bit ahead of Jones as an attacker.
• Cameron Johnson, 3.6 EPM wins, 3/$69M remaining: He has statistically plateaued a bit, which isn’t super encouraging since he’s older than some in this group (28), but teams love 6’8″ guys who can shoot like him.
• Dillon Brooks, 3.5 EPM wins, 3/$63M remaining: The 28-year-old just completed his best season from outside, but also posted a career-low usage rate.
• Toumani Camara, 3.4 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (all 3 years non-guaranteed): He was an older rookie (just turned 24), which is part of why he slipped to #52, but he has a chance to be a really special defender.
• Kyle Kuzma, 3.3 EPM wins, 3/$64M remaining: He’ll be 29 in July and he overlaps some with Markkanen, but the most encouraging thing about the former Ute’s year was his 79% rim finishing, a career best.
• LaMelo Ball, 3.0 EPM wins, 5/$206M remaining: This is a tough one: the star potential is there, and he’s just turning 23 with an elite combination of size and playmaking; but he’s missed two thirds of the games the last two seasons.

Modest value (<3.0 wins added)

Just to be completist about it, here’s every other player with at least three years of contract left:

• Isaiah Stewart, 2.9 EPM wins, 4/$60M remaining (last is TO): He’s an undersized bruiser at center, and probably not someone who changes your reality, unless he’s not done developing at 23.
• Jerami Grant, 2.8 EPM wins, 3/$96M remaining (+ a PO): He has missed 25 games a year on average over the last four, which is worrisome at 30 except that he was also on non-competitive teams those years.
• De’Andre Hunter, 2.3 EPM wins, 3/$70M remaining: There hasn’t been a ton of year-to-year growth in his counting stats, and a lot of all-in metrics don’t particular view the 26-year-old as being hugely helpful to winning.
• Keldon Johnson, 2.2 EPM wins, 3/$54M remaining: He was featured a lot more in his third and fourth seasons than last year, but still managed 16 a game on average efficiency, mostly off the bench; he’ll be 25.
• Trayce Jackson-Davis, 2.2 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (2nd non-guaranteed, last is TO): GSW likely keeps the 24-year-old, who on a team-friendly deal gave them another smallball center option and had solid per-36 numbers (17 & 11)
• Julian Champagnie, 2.2 EPM wins, 3/$9M (all 3 years non-guaranteed): Here’s another guy who grabbed a bigger role while playing on one of those team-friendly contracts, and is now approaching 23 years old.
• Miles McBride, 2.1 EPM wins, 3/$13M remaining: The young PG (he’ll be 24 soon) didn’t play a ton under Tom Thibodeau early on, but delivered nice stats when injuries moved him up the depth chart in the spring.
• Jock Landale, 1.9 EPM wins, 3/$24M remaining (all non-guaranteed): The Aussie has been a low-minute backup for three Western Conference teams, and will be 29 when the season starts.
• Onyeka Okongwu, 1.5 EPM wins, 4/$62M remaining: He’s small for a center (6’8″), but the 23-year-old is clearly still developing, and had career highs in points, minutes and threes taken and made.
• Jordan Poole, 1.5 EPM wins, 3/$97M remaining: “Empty calories” might be a bit harsh, but the 25-year-old had similar stats in Washington compared to his 4-year GSW averages, yet his efficiency dropped significantly.
• Cole Anthony, 1.4 EPM wins, 3/$39M remaining (last is TO): He’s spirited, and suddenly a young vet with 250 games under his belt at just 24, but he hasn’t gotten a ton better on the macro in four pro seasons.
• Kenrich Williams, 1.2 EPM wins, 3/$21M remaining (last is TO): The 29-year-old had a smaller role last season, and the free throw shooting remains a real problem if he ever wants to be part of crunch-time lineups.
• Grant Williams, 1.0 EPM wins, 3/$41M remaining: At 25, he got to do more for the hapless Hornets (14-5-3 after the trade), but ultimately had to watch his two prior teams fight for a ring.
• Jarred Vanderbilt, 0.5 EPM wins, 3/$46M remaining (+ a PO): He missed 53 games last season after signing that extension, but the Jazz aren’t likely bringing the 25-year-old back again anyway.
• John Konchar, 0.3 EPM wins, 3/$18M remaining: It was a career-low shooting year for the now-28-year-old, which is why he had a fairly minor role even despite Memphis’ injury woes.
• Brandon Clarke, 0.1 EPM wins, 3/$38M remaining: He only played six games, so the EPM wins are misleading: at his best, he’s a value-adding role player, though he’s not an outside shooter and he’ll be 28.
• Josh Green (just traded), -0.2 EPM wins, 3/$41M remaining: The 23-year-old is no longer someone defenses want to leave open behind the stripe (39% the last two years), but his game hasn’t massively transformed beyond that.
• Nassir Little, -0.3 EPM wins, 3/$22M remaining: He showed promise at times in four Portland seasons, but the 24-year-old had career lows almost across the board in Phoenix last year. 
• Zeke Nnaji, -0.5 EPM wins, 3/$25M remaining (+ a PO): The 23-year-old has never cracked 800 minutes in a season, and this past year saw his minutes and role get smaller.

There are also a bunch of guys on team-friendly minimum contracts who haven’t really shown much yet. Team sign guys to low-risk deals with partial guarantees and team options like this so that if they pop (like Williams, Camara, Jackson-Davis and Champagnie in the group above), they have the ability to keep them. But so far, nobody in this next group has popped:

• Jordan Walsh, 0.0 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (2nd non-guaranteed, last is TO)
• Jalen Pickett, 0.0 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (last is TO)
• Leonard Miller, 0.0 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (2nd non-guaranteed, last is TO)
• Mouhamed Gueye, -0.1 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (2nd non-guaranteed, last is TO)
• Craig Porter Jr., -0.1 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (all 3 non/partial guaranteed, last is TO)
• Chris Livingston, -0.1 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (2nd non-guaranteed, last is TO)
• Colby Jones, -0.2 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (2nd non-guaranteed, last is TO)
• AJ Lawson, -0.3 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (all 3 non-guaranteed)
• Maxwell Lewis, -0.4 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (2nd non-guaranteed, last is TO)
• Julian Phillips, -0.5 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (last is TO)
• Andre Jackson Jr., -0.9 EPM wins, 3/$7M remaining (all 3 non/partial guarantee, last is TO)

Rookies

Technically, the 2023 first-round picks all have three years left under contract, but we’re going to save our breath in that category. Any player who has shown anything close to impact-player value just one year into his rookie deal is going to be incredibly unlikely to get traded. The best rookies by EPM wins were Victor Wembanyama (duh), Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Brandon Miller.

This year’s rookies can have their rights traded before they sign; once they sign, they cannot be traded for 30 days.

Recent signings

Of course, more players are getting added to the “3 years left under contract” category as they sign new contracts/extensions. But most of them can’t be traded until December or January as the result of their recently signed deals.

• Jalen Brunson (16.6 wins) now has 5/$182M left after an extension
• Paul George (14.8 wins) will sign for 4/$212M
• Jayson Tatum (13.8 wins) now has 6/$347M left after an extension
• Tyrese Maxey (11.8 wins) will sign for 4/$204M
• Derrick White (11.8 wins) now has 5/$146M left after an extension
• Donovan Mitchell (11.3 wins) now has 4/$185M left after an extension
• Isaiah Hartenstein (9.9 wins) will sign for 3/$87M
• Pascal Siakam (9.2 wins) will sign for 4/$190M
• DeMar DeRozan (9.0 wins) will sign for 3/$76M
• Bam Adebayo (8.5 wins) under contract for 5/$238M after extension
• Jarrett Allen (8.2 wins) under contract for 5/$131M after extension
• OG Anunoby (7.1 wins) will sign for 4/$213M
• Klay Thompson (5.8 wins) will sign for 3/$50M
• Immanuel Quickley (4.9 wins) will sign for 5/$175M
• Obi Toppin (4.9 wins) will sign for 4/$60M
• Sam Hauser (4.5 wins) has 5/$47M left after an extension
• Miles Bridges (4.4 wins) will sign for 3/$75M
• Buddy Hield (4.2 wins) will have 3/$21M left after a S&T.
• Jonathan Isaac (4.1 wins) will have 5/$85M after an R&E.
• Jonas Valanciunas (3.5 wins) will sign for 3/$30M
• Kris Dunn (3.5 wins) will sign for 3/$17M
• Derrick Jones Jr. (3.4 wins) will sign for 4/$30M
• Nic Claxton (3.4 wins) will sign for 4/$100M
• Jalen Smith (3.4 wins) will sign for 3/$27M
• Andrew Nembhard (3.2 wins) has 4/$61M left after an extension
• Malik Monk (2.9 wins) will sign for 4/$78M
• Goga Bitadze (2.9 wins) will sign for 3/$25M
• Royce O’Neale (2.8 wins) will sign for 4/$44M
• Naji Marshall (2.8 wins) will sign for 3/$27M
• Saddiq Bey (2.6 wins) will sign for 3/$20M
• Aaron Wiggins (2.4 wins) will sign for 5/$47M
• Isaiah Joe (2.4 wins) will sign for 4/$48M
• Kyle Anderson (2.2 wins) will sign for 3/$27M
• Patrick Williams (1.8 wins) will sign for 5/$90M
• Caleb Martin (1.8 wins) will sign for 4/$40M
• Vit Krejci (0.1 wins) will sign for 4/$10M
• Shake Milton (-0.9 wins) will sign for 3/$9M
• Max Christie (-1.1 wins) will sign for 4/$32M
• Cade Cunningham, 4.7 EPM wins, 6/$236M remaining after extension (tradeable with Poison Pill)
• Evan Mobley, 4.9 EPM wins, 6/$236M remaining after extenstion (tradeable with Poison Pill)
• Scottie Barnes, 7.7 wins, 6/$235M remaining after extension (tradeable with Poison Pill)
• Franz Wagner, 10.3 wins, 6/$277M remaining after extension (tradeable with Poison Pill)
• Johnny Juzang, 0.3 wins, 3/$12M remaining after extension (but they employ him)

—

Other players linked to the Jazz

• Zach LaVine, 2.1 EPM wins, 2/$89M remaining (+ a PO): The Jazz are going to get floated in a lot of rumors because of their cap space, but I’m not surprised that water has quickly been thrown on this one, by Tony Jones, Marc Stein and others.

Other impactful players on shorter contracts

I just can’t see the Jazz spending major assets for someone who is (or could be) just 82 games away from unrestricted agency, unless the cost is crazy low or other pieces are involved.

But in the right situation, they might roll the dice on someone with two guaranteed years left, or even a 2021 draftee who will become a restricted free agent next summer.

Here are the best players (by EPM wins) in those categories:

• Two plus a PO (>3 EPM wins): Damian Lillard, Joel Embiid, Trae Young, Bradley Beal, Austin Reaves, Jakob Poeltl, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (just signed)
• Two years, no PO (>4 EPM wins): De’Aaron Fox, Fred VanVleet, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Jarrett Allen, Jusuf Nurkic, Kristaps Porzingis, Mikal Bridges (just traded), (Collin Sexton), Mike Conley, CJ McCollum, Daniel Gafford, Coby White, Jaren Jackson Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Rui Hachimura, Tobias Harris, Moritz Wagner (just signed)
• One year, then restricted (>3 EPM wins): Jalen Suggs, Alperen Sengun, Trey Murphy III, Jonathan Kuminga, Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, Josh Giddey (just traded), Jalen Johnson