What else might the Jazz be planning with Lauri locked up?

Markkanen is locked up for five years, but what else might the Jazz be planning? (Rick Egan, The Salt Lake Tribune)

The Utah Jazz have been at the center of the NBA conversation for totally understandable and obvious reasons. The biggest unsettled question of the NBA offseason for a matter of weeks now has revolved around a top-30 player the Jazz were likely to either extend or trade. That drama is seemingly resolved, with news surfacing that Utah will indeed renegotiate Lauri Markkanen’s salary upward using their 2024-25 cap space, and then extend him for four more seasons. The transaction won’t be finalized until after Tuesday, which will make the 27-year-old ineligible for trade during the upcoming season.

But there’s another mystery nobody seems to be talking about: why is Utah carefully protecting more cap space than it actually needs to renegotiate-and-extend the Finnish forward?

The Jazz are clearly being intentional about preserving spending power. By delaying the signings of free agent Drew Eubanks, incumbent wing Johnny Juzang, and second-round pick Kyle Filipowski, they’ve telegraphed that they have some other business they’d like to conduct before making those deals official. But here’s where it gets interesting: the amount they’re hoarding is more than they’ll need for Markkanen’s R&E — even if the intention is to go all the way up to his max salary.

Even the biggest raise Utah could possibly grant the 2023 All-Star would only require $24.1 million in cap room, taking Markkanen to his max salary of $42,176,400. The Jazz could accommodate that amount even without asking Eubanks, Juzang and Filipowski to wait. In fact, as of this writing, they have the ability to create upwards of $37 million in space, ignoring minimum roster holds.

The Jazz’s salary cap situation *before* the Markkanen R&E is factored in. (Note: I also neglected to include Jason Preston, who’s still under contract on a 2-way deal; no cap impact)

If the only business they want to conduct aside from the Markkanen R&E involved completing the reported signings, they could have done those already. So what else might the Jazz have up their sleeve? It’s the question too few people have thought to ask about the Jazz’s careful cap hoarding, but here are a few potential answers, ranging from flashy to boring.

Rent their cap space

The Jazz have undoubtedly already fielded some offers from teams interested in using their cap space to navigate a complex new set of financial rules. Salary dump trades usually yield extra draft compensation and/or cash, but such a move might need to be timed after Markkanen’s pact is official and before they carry out their other signings.

Eubanks and Juzang could fit into Utah’s room exception, a tool teams can use after exhausting their cap space, and draftee Filipowski can be signed regardless of the Jazz’s cap situation. So if the Jazz bumped Markkanen up to his max, they could still spend close to $14 million and still preserve the right to honor their agreements.

That’s enough to absorb — for an asset — someone like PJ Tucker, a move that would get the Clippers under the tax. The Miami Heat are above the tax and apron with a roster that’s not expected to be super competitive, and Duncan Robinson’s contract might be more palatable with just a year plus a partial guarantee on 2025-26 remaining. (The Jazz couldn’t absorb Robinson outright unless Markkanen’s renegotiated salary was for less than the max or unless they’re sending some salary out.) Taking on a Kevon Looney or Gary Payton II would get Golden State under the tax.

Or two apron teams hoping to deal might just need a place to stash a small salary for a deal to be legal. Trades between two apron teams are almost impossible without a facilitator because neither team would be permitted to increase salary by even a dollar over their outgoing guy(s). Finding a third team to take a small salary is going to become a de facto requirement for teams in that salary range to deal with one another.

In short, there’s a strong possibility that we’ll learn after the ink dries on Markkanen’s new contract that the Jazz already had a plan in place to score some nominal value by offering their cap space to other teams.

A “buyer” type trade

If hoarding cap space for PJ Tucker feels unexciting, there is also a chance the Jazz could be preserving space to make trades with actual basketball production in mind.

Utah is in a position asset-wise to make all kinds of swings. They can go after real difference-makers, like they reportedly tried to do when Jrue Holiday and Mikal Bridges were available. Or they could make a low-cost play like they did when they essentially got John Collins for free.

One name that has been discussed as a potential bargain-bin grab is 2020 All-Star Brandon Ingram, a 23-ppg scorer in five seasons as a Pelican. He’s a long 6’8″, a certified bucket-getter, and he’s still young (about to turn 27), but is potentially available for cheap as New Orleans looks to reimagine its identity. He’d be a rental (at $36M next season) in a year when the Jazz aren’t necessarily trying to be great, so on the one hand the fit looks questionable. But if the cost to get him creeps low enough, there’s probably a point at which it’s worth a low-cost gamble, particularly if the Jazz could move Collins in the same deal. That Collins hasn’t really taken off in Utah is no big crime since, again, they didn’t really give up anything to get him, but now he has 2/$53M left and just isn’t generating a ton of interest in a suddenly very cost-conscious NBA marketplace.

The Jazz have enough cap space to do Collins-for-Ingram straight up (plus whatever assets). Such a deal would actually fill a need for the Pelicans (a skilled 5) while giving them room under the tax to use their mid-level if they want. Utah would acquire Ingram’s cap rights to re-sign him in 2025 should they so desire, or they could look to flip him later. Regardless of how you feel about Ingram in a vacuum, turning Rudy Gay’s husk and a fake 2nd into an NBA All-Star in two trades is a pretty good asset pull.

I mention Ingram because the rumor is out there, but that’s just one possibility. One nice thing about having been at the center of the rumor mill for a month is that the Jazz are likely in a great position to know which guys are actually available and how different teams view specific players/assets. (FWIW, here’s a trade board I put together with every player who has at least three years remaining.)

Free agent signing

The Jazz are also the last team with spending power beyond the MLE to make a run at remaining free agents. That’s probably why they’ve been linked in rumors to Isaac Okoro, the best guy left as measured by 2023-24 EPM wins added. Okoro is a plus wing defender whose outside shot comes and goes, and the Jazz have the cap flexibility to force Cleveland into a tough decision on whether or not to match an offer for the restricted free agent.

Aside from Okoro, there just aren’t a ton of high-value free agents left. Dennis Smith Jr. is the second best remaining option, and he’s probably a minimum signing at this point. The only other free agents with a positive EPM wins figure last year are Lonnie Walker IV, Robert Covington, Jae Crowder, Tristan Thompson, Justin Holiday, Talen Horton-Tucker, Svi Mykhailiuk, Chimezie Metu, Lamar Stevens, Landry Shamet, Kenny Lofton Jr., JaVale McGee, Bismack Biyombo, Danilo Gallinari, Thaddeus Young, Javonte Green and Oshae Brissett. Our guy Mark Pereira has some ideas too, including Markelle Fultz who is coming off a $17M season in which he helped things congeal on a young Magic squad that surpassed expectations.

Most of those guys wouldn’t command enough salary that Utah would have to reserve a ton of cap space to make it happen, but who knows? Utah could also sign a veteran to a bigger number just so they have another salary they could stack in trades later on. Or for that matter, there could be a free agent who has been overseas that would merit a salary higher than the minimum.

But for the most part, I’ll be surprised if they spend a huge chunk of their remaining cap space on a free agent, other than maybe Okoro.

The boring answers

There’s also a chance that Utah doesn’t have anything specific lined up. I know that’s a boring way to conclude an article that starts with the premise of “what are the sneaky Jazz up to??” but it’s true. It’s not like any of those guys are needed on the basketball floor in late July, so there’s no drawback in taking a beat to see if an extra few million could be useful.

Maybe they were just waiting on the Eubanks/Juzang/Filipowski signings because they could, and because it never hurts to keep options open. Maybe they wanted to keep as many avenues open for trades in case the talks with Markkanen went differently. Maybe the way they’ve held those signings until ast means nothing at all.

But honestly, it’s hard to believe they don’t have some kind of plan. Their ordering of transactions looks intentional enough that it’s fair to think some other business might follow once Markkanen’s deal is done.