Salt City Seven: Big Lineups, Markkanen with the Ball & More

Markkanen’s Jazz are back to playing bigger. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz. 

A quick exploration of a big-picture topic

The Jazz all but completely abandoned the idea of 3-big lineups last year. After John Collins became available to them for next to nothing, they were almost obligated to try the combo big alongside rising star Lauri Markkanen and impactful youngster Walker Kessler.

To put it kindly, it didn’t work. The three started 13 games together, but were -18.1 per 100 possessions, and the Jazz quickly mothballed the idea.

But it’s a new season now, and 3-big lineups are making a bit of a comeback. It helps that the Jazz have in Markkanen a 7-footer who is spiritually a wing in terms of play style. But just as importantly, Kessler is bouncing back to a very impactful paint presence after a weird second year, and Collins has far more juice than in his inaugural Jazz campaign.

Add to that the fact the the Jazz have a precocious rookie big in Kyle Filipowski and not a ton of high-quality minutes coming from the small forward spot, and it just made sense to give it another go.

Let’s see how the three main versions of 3-big lineups are going, keeping in mind that samples are still really small.

Markkanen-Collins-Filipowski: 76 minutes

• 114.5 offensive rating
• 115.7 defensive rating
• -1.2 net rating

The most common version of Utah’s new 3-big configuration happened while Kessler was out with a hip issue. Lineups featuring these three rebound pretty well, and also have a true shooting of 61.1%, well above the team’s norm of 56.6%.

From a Four Factors standpoint, it’s obvious why this trio is playing pretty close to even basketball: the primary stats that fuel offensive and defensive efficiency are pretty close when these three play together, except that their shot defense is a little worse than their foes’, and they rebound a little better.

A huge chunk of these 76 minutes (52 of them) are with Collin Sexton and Keyonte George, and that fivesome is dragging down the trio’s average at -10.0 per 100. The next three most used variations are Jordan Clarkson-Isaiah Collier, Clarkson-Sexton and Sexton-Collier, and all three are wildly positive, albeit on tiny samples.

Markkanen-Collins-Kessler: 22 minutes

• 122.9 offensive rating
• 79.6 defensive rating
• +43.3 net rating

That’s an insanely good start, to the point that it’s clear that we need a ton more sample to see if this is remotely real. In fact, 18 of these 22 minutes came in Saturday’s surprise win against a listless Knick team. Obviously give the guys credit for taking it to a solid team — lineups with these three were +18 (raw) in that game — but I’m going to need more than 18 minutes in a day game with weird energy before I believe this trio’s issues are fixed.

The great offensive rating across the trio’s first 22 minutes has been fueled by insane true shooting (67.1%) and by grabbing 83.3% of available boards. But the main thing has been how impossible they were to score against in the New York game: opponents so far have just 37.5% effensive field goal percentage.

As with the group above, the lion’s share of this trio’s minutes are alongside the guard duo of Sexton and George — 19 of the 22 minutes. No other combination has appeared for more than a minute or two.

Markkanen-Collins-Drew Eubanks: 15 minutes

• 109.1 offensive rating
• 112.9 defensive rating
• -3.8 net rating

This lineup is doing well enough defensively to play close to net neutral ball (they’re +1 raw, but -3.8 per 100 because of possession allocation), and they and even shoot well at 69% true shooting, the best of these groups. But it doesn’t matter because the turnover rate is so high that it’s dragging the offense down. 

This trio gets to the line a lot (almost a third of their possessions) and out-shoots opponents, but can’t keep a hold of the basketball.

The minutes here are small to begin with, so parsing is by guard combos is pretty suspect as a data exercise. But for the sake of completeness: these three have mostly run with Clarkson and Patty Mills (with whom they’ve played winning basketball in seven total minutes) or with Sexton and George (with whom they’ve lost convincingly in just five minutes).

—

That’s it in terms of combos, and the data at this point is still too scant to conclude too much of anything. However, the most interesting thing isn’t the outcomes, but the fact that they’re trying it at all.

So far, the Jazz are only employing the gambit when Markkanen is on the floor to be the nominal three, and Collins has also appeared in all three. We haven’t seen Kessler-Filipowski-Collins or even Kessler-Filipowski-Markkanen yet, which would be somewhat interesting. The emergence of “Flip” started most earnestly after Kessler’s injury, and by the time the latter was back, the rookie was dealing with his own ankle turn.

In terms of big man duos, the production so far has looked like this (minimum 50 shared minutes):

• Kessler-Collins +5.0 (OK offensively, pretty good on defense)
• Markkanen-Kessler +4.0 (average offensively, decent on D)
• Markkanen-Collins +0.8 (pretty average on both ends)
• Collins-Eubanks +0.4 (slightly pesky defensively, underwhelming offensively)
• Markkanen-Filipowski -2.5 (OK on defense, anemic offensively) 
• Collins-Filipowski -11.9 (just can’t get stops)
• Markkanen-Eubanks -14.0 (pretty rough on both ends
• Kessler-Filipowski -30.4 (defense isn’t terrible, but just can’t score)

Just some stuff to keep an eye on.

Telling or interesting words from Jazz people

“Everybody eats.”

-Markkanen, after Utah’s third 30-assist game, a win against New York 

First of all, this is an incredibly fitting thing to say just days before Thanksgiving.

But in all seriousness, the Jazz have been moving the basketball better: from 21.7 assists per game during their 0-6 start, to 25.9 during the 4-6 stretch that has followed.

And it’s not just because more shots are going in, either. Their raw passing numbers have gone from 294.7 to 318.2, per NBA.com tracking.

Will Hardy likes to say that the Jazz aren’t constructed in such a way to let one guy create all their looks. The fact that their best player is primary an off-ball scorer makes that even more true. The Jazz almost have to succeed this way, which is why they average 433 distinct “touches” per 48 minutes, the fourth most in the league.

Stats that tell the story of the week

110

It’s quite obvious that any stats about 3-point volume are going to favor modern players, based on the rapid proliferation of that weapon. But still, I liked the Jazz’s find that Markkanen has more games with four or more 3-pointers than any 7-footer in history. He’s had two more such games since that tweet, meaning he’s at 110 overall, a dozen games ahead of Dirk Nowitzki — and Lauri’s still just 27.

9

Dalton Knecht became just the 12th player to hit nine threes against the Jazz in franchise history, and the only to ever do so as a rookie. Only Keegan Murray (12) and Fred VanVleet (10) have done more damage to the Jazz from beyond the arc.

3

The Jazz had their lowest half of the season for turnovers (3) against the Spurs on Thursday, but then proceeded to give away the ball 11 times after the break as their 20-point lead evaporated. Their shooting also declined from half to half, both in general (50% to 34%) and from outside (39% to, yikes, 12%).

65-45

Teams are 6-20 this year when they give up 30 or more points off turnovers, but Utah got a rare win on Saturday despite 36 such points by New York. Only Milwaukee (37) has given up more turnover points in a win. How did Utah do it? By outrebounding the Knicks 65-45 (including team rebounds) and holding their guests to just 50.3% true shooting.

0-2

I guess we should spend a minute at least acknowledging that the In-Season Tournament exists. Utah is 0-2, which means their only chance at advancing to the knockout round is in a multi-team tie scenario where Utah has beat both the Spurs and OKC and by a bunch of points. Utah currently trails Group B in point differential at -14, so they’d have to win two, the Lakers would have to lose two, and even still they’d need at least one other team tied at 2-2 to trigger a point differential tiebreaker.

Dissecting a Jazz scoring play from the week

Markkanen is on a pretty nice tear right now, partially because he’s shooting 47.5% from three over a five-game stretch. Deploying him as a wing in the lineups explored above gives him the chance to shoot right over the top of people.

But he’s also putting the ball on the floor lately, and those forays have been going well. Early on the season, teams were able to merely flash an extra body at him, but lately, he’s reading those helps better and getting craftier. Like these plays where he spins away from the help:

In the first clip, he surveys the floor before the drive and sort of pre-assesses where the help is likely to come. Harrison Barnes squeezes in first, so Lauri just spins the opposite direction. This also gives the backline defender more ground to cover, so by the time Charles Bassey gets to the shot, it’s a goaltending violation. Similar story on the second clip. Before the ball even gets to him, Markkanen has mapped out the floor and knows that the helper is coming from the top side, so when he catches, he goes straight into a baseline spin knowing that nobody’s getting to him.

Or there’s stuff like this:

Markkanen knows the help is coming when a smaller wing has to guard him with two feet already in the paint. That’s a given. But here, he buys himself an extra second to see where the *second* help is going to come from. In this case, it’s the weakside guy who’s supposed to sort of zone-cover both Collins and Johnny Juzang. When that defender panics and overhelps, Lauri knows exactly where the ball goes.

Reading the second help like this is exactly the type of read that constitutes a major next step for Lauri as a ball-in-hands creator. 

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win

A lot of Utah’s best player looking like Utah’s best player this week…

Jazz 121, Knicks 106: Lauri Markkanen. I was really close to giving this one to Kessler, who got a cherry-picked dunk in the final minute to wrap up an 11-and-10 double double. The reason was defense: New York didn’t score a single bucket at the rim on Kessler (0-for-4), but what was even more noticeable was the 23 total shots contested and the deterrance aspect. I’m just not sure how we can possibly keep this one from Markkanen on a night with 34 points on 11-for-15 shooting (!!). Both of them (and Sexton) were +30 or better, but it’s hard to ignore 34-and-9 to recognize 11-and-10.

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 118, Lakers 124: Lauri Markkanen. A late flurry by the Finn (7 points in the final two minutes, 10 in the final seven minutes) made this a little easier, because it stretched his total to 25 (on 16 shots) to go with eight boards. Otherwise, the question would have been whether to award George for coming on late with 18 after an 0-for-5, 7-turnover start… or Clarkson for doing the inverse, starting strong but having a quiet fourth… or Sexton who was consistently good throughout with 19. Markkanen saved us the headache of sorting through that.
• Jazz 118, Spurs 126: Lauri Markkanen. Chalk up his -19 to playing with a pretty flawed bench unit. With no Jordan Clarkson, Utah’s second unit was a pretty rag-tag group, but Markkanen was actually pretty awesome in Texas. He dealt with doubles and late helps better, often spinning away from the extra defender just in time to make a solid play, or reading the direction of the help to find a teammate. He finished with an efficient 27. Honorable mention to Brice Sensabaugh for his season-high 18, Collins was again solid (16 and 14), and George and Sexton both finished in the high teens.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of action

The Jazz just started the longest homestand they’ll have before the All-Star break, which continues this week with two sets of back-to-backs.

• Tuesday, November 26: Jazz vs. Spurs. Believe it or not, the Jazz will wrap their season series with San Antonio before cutting the bird. So far the Spurs have won two of three, and they have Victor Wembanyama back in the lineup (25-7-9 on Saturday). However, three of the top eight guys in their rotation are questionable or out on Tuesday. Both teams will be on the front end of a back-to-back.
• Wednesday, November 27: Jazz vs. Nuggets. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic quite simply looks like the best basketball player alive again, leading the league in rebounds AND assists, while sitting second in points at 30.3. He has seven triple-doubles already this season, bringing his career total to the fourth highest in league history — only Russ, Oscar and Magic have more. And yet the Nuggets are plugging along in sixth as of this writing, because Aaron Gordon has been hurt and Jamal Murray has been struggling: it’s his lowest outside shooting percentage since his rookie year, and his lowest scoring average since year two.
• Saturday, November 30: Jazz vs. Mavs. There are seven teams within a game of ninth-placed Dallas, which just shows how crazy the West is going to be yet again this season. It also shows how actually harmful it was when the Mavs let Collins slip behind them for a game-winning dunk in Salt Lake a couple of weeks ago. The Mavs have won five of six since that night, but the news of Luka Doncic’s extended absence due to a wrist injury is pretty inconvenient for last season’s runners-up.
• Tuesday, December 1: Jazz vs. Lakers. L.A. weathered a too-late run by Utah in the last meeting, part of a 6-game win streak for the Lake Show that since snapped with consecutive losses to Orlando and Denver at home. LeBron James (24-8-9) and Anthony Davis (30-11-3) are both playing superb basketball for a team that’s suddenly somehow fourth in offense after being perfect average at #15 last year.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

Purple is officially back, as SCH alum JazzUniTracker points out:

5 of the next 6 games in purple guys 💜 https://t.co/dNTRQSShuO

— Jazz Uniform Tracker (@JazzUniTracker) November 21, 2024

The Jazz played 13 of their first 14 games in jerseys that didn’t feature a single purple stitch: the black-and-yellow ones came out seven times and the white ones with black and yellow accents were used in six games. The first evidence that purple was part of the Jazz’s palette didn’t come until November 14.

But now fans can expect a hard pivot to purple. The purple mountain jersey will have been used nine times by New Year’s Day, and then the black-and-purple will entire replace black-and-yellow, which won’t be used again after this Tuesday’s game against the Lakers (unless it’s used on one of the two yet-unscheduled games during NBA Cup week in December). All of which is kind of a funny reminder of the U-turn away from the spotlight yellow era.

So back to Purple Mountain Majesty it is. The explanation that Utah couldn’t possibly encroach on the Kings’ and Lakers’ hold on purple never really tracked, especially when you look around the league. Here’s every team’s top three official colors in a snaking chart that has like colors grouped together. I didn’t include white or black except where I couldn’t get to three colors without including them.

Every team’s three top official colors (without white/black, unless getting to three required including them)

The line of thinking was that purple would be too repetitive, but only five teams use any shade of purple at all. Meanwhile, there are 31 different applications (among these 90 squares) of some monochromatic shade, and for that matter, nine teams currently use some form of yellow — although certainly none quite like the Jazz’s current yellow. There are 21 shades of blue, 14 shades of red… hell, even cream/gold tones are roughly as prominent in the league right now as purple.

But regardless of all that… purple is — for real now, it seems — back, baby!

Have a very happy Thanksgiving week!