Salt City Seven: Tourney Time, Jazz Picks, Assist Watch & More

The Jazz have been getting big numbers from the guy on the left, and finally brought the guy on the right back to the hardwood. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick exploration of a big-picture topic

March is fun. There’s no doubt about it.

What can be debated, however, is how important the next three weeks’ worth of games are, especially for teams waiting to commit millions of dollars to teenagers. The reality is that it’s pretty tough to map NCAA Tournament success to long, productive NBA careers. Based at least on the recent past, the top performers from the Big Dance are just as likely to spend their pro career on the fringes as to become All-Stars.

That doesn’t mean performances don’t matter — just that, as with any small sample size, you can’t draw too much from the results of 1-6 spring games.

Some of the 2025 Draft’s top talents won’t even participate at all. Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey play for a Rutgers team that fell short of a tournament bid, and Cooper Flagg may or may not participate in Duke’s tourney run after turning at ankle in the SEC tournament. Nothing about that previous sentence should lessen the excitement about their NBA futures.

You have to go back 12 tournaments to find a Most Outstanding Player from the NCAA Tournament who went on to All-Star status. That was Anthony Davis, the top performer in the 2012 tourney, when Cody Williams was seven. Since then, there have been some NBA contributors for sure: Donte DiVincenzo (2018) is a do-it-all guard for the Wolves, and Shabazz Napier (2014) and Tyus Jones (2015) have enjoyed long careers since their respective shining moments.

Those are the best from that 11-year span since AD. Ryan Arcidiacono (2016) hung around on the fringes, with 257 career NBA games over seven seasons. Kyle Guy (2019), Luke Hancock (2013) and Joel Berry II (2017) didn’t really make it as pros. Jared Butler (2021) just made his way back to a regular roster after playing on 2-way contracts, and another former Jazz guy, Ochai Agbaji (2022) has shown some flashes here and there. Adam Sanogo (2023) and Tristen Newton (2024) have barely played.

A similar theme emerges if you look at recent All-Tournament selections. You’ll find some names like Paolo Banchero and Julius Randle, both of whom have been All-Stars. But you’ll find even more guys whose names an NBA-only fan just wouldn’t recognize: Armando Bacot, Kennedy Meeks, Phil Booth, just to name a few.

Again, this is still a fun time of year. Just don’t let your opinions about guys change all that much. The Jazz’ scouts and front office folks already probably have a pretty good idea who are the real prizes of this draft season, whether or not they even touch a basketball during the upcoming tournament.

And speaking of the big prizes, let’s end this section with our weekly check-in on Utah’s draft position.

Tracking Utah’s four 2025 picks

Utah has taken over the top pre-lottery draft position, but I keep insisting that they’re probably fine anywhere in the top three. Those three teams will have equal odd at a top-4 pick. And sure, the worst record assured you a floor of the No. 5 pick, but in this particular draft I don’t think the difference between 5th and 7th is as important as landing in the top 3-4, where Utah can only land as a result of ping pong ball bouncing.

The hope of a second lotto pick is vanishing quickly as Minnesota rips more wins. BPI views them as a pretty sure bet, but as long as they are in the play-in zone, there’s a chance of weirdness.

So anyway, go enjoy March Madness. Do your bracket, find your Cinderellas, have fun! Just know that the best Big Dancers aren’t necessarily the best eventual pros.

Telling or interesting words from Jazz people

“Fun to be back. Been waiting to get out there with my teammates. It’s an exciting night obviously. It sucks to be sitting out and watching games on the sidelines. So, a good day.”

-Lauri Markkanen via KJZZ, on his return to action after nine games inactive

Markkanen got back into action with games of 14, 16 and 16, after missing the previous nine. Finding the rhythm after more than two weeks off has been a challenge as he’s shooting 37% since coming back, but his presence undoubtedly helps the Jazz create a more authentic development environment for everybody else.

Markkanen’s return came just after the Jazz got a wrist slap for excessively resting the Finnish star, but honestly, it’s hard to blame them. The “player participation policy” is a maddeningly unspecific document. It’s filled with language about the league’s broad “discretion” on what constitutes an event worthy of investigation, and arbitrary definitions of “bona fide” injuries. It has to be frustrating for teams to manage to a very subjective moving target.

But hey, if it means the Jazz get to put Markkanen in front our eyeballs more, that makes the last 14 games a little more fun.

Stats that tell the story of the week

-7.0 to -7.1

Here’s the craziest thing about the Jazz’s now 9-game losing streak: despite dropping all these games in a row, their net rating has barely moved. After their February 28 win against Minnesota — the last time they tasted victory — their season-long net rating sat at -7.0. Nine losses later, it’s -7.1.

44

With 14 games left, that’s how many assists Collier needs to catch John Stockton for most assists in a Jazz rookie’s season. That would require just a 3.14 average over his last 14, and given that his average since January 7 is 8.2, I’d call that… likely.

40%

It’s only a 16-game sample, but Cody Williams is shooting exactly 40% from three over the last 16 game, since being reinstated in the regular rotation (and 43.3% over his last 10). The progression as this point is impressive: 18.9% through his first 16 games before heading to the G League, 28.6% over his next 11 as he bounced in and out of regular minutes, and now 40% in this last stretch.

<25

The two Toronto-Utah games in the past 10 day have been the two NBA games this season with the most under-25 players logging 18 minutes or more. In Canada on March 8, 14 guys logged serious minutes who haven’t hit their 25th birthday, and in this past Friday’s rematch, it was 13. There have only been six additional games with 12 such players logging as many minutes (all since February 4), and two of those involved the Jazz, as well: Jazz-Wiz on March 5 and Jazz-Pels on March 2.

21-20

Despite the stat above about the Jazz usually remaining competitive even in losses, here’s how poorly it went for Utah early on in Minnesota: Anthony Edwards outscored them all by his lonesome in terms of first-quarter points, 21 to 20.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win

The Game Ball department has been quiet lately, but we can still recognize the best from Utah’s week of performances.

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 108, Celtics 114: Brice Sensabaugh. Collins’ 28 and 10 nearly qualify him as the automatic recipient here, except that it came on 30 shots and Sensabaugh was just too good in that fourth quarter surge. The Jazz came all the way back from a fourth-quarter deficit of 23 in a matter of minutes because of the forward’s 17-point quarter outburst. He also grabbed three boards and assisted five more points. After Sensabaugh and Collins, Sexton’s 13 assists deserve mention, although he too had a rough shooting night. 
• Jazz 115, Grizzlies 122: Walker Kessler. Sexton flirted with a triple double (22-7-8) and Collins was solid in his first game back (also 22), but this was one of those games where Kessler just visually changed the game. The Grizzlies shot 6-for-18 when Kessler was the primary defender (per tracking), and that’s in addition to a unique stat line: 9 points, 14 boards, 5 assists and 6 blocks.
• Jazz 118, Raptors 126: Kyle Filipowski. Markkanen looked great early, but it’s hard to give this to someone who didn’t have a reason to take the warmups off after halftime. Jordan Clarkson had an important flurry that helped Utah make it interesting again, but Flip had a 18-11-3-2-1 line and a team-best +14, so we’ll go with him.
• Jazz 102, Wolves 128: Collin Sexton. This was a tough one because nobody really had it going. Kessler had another nice double-double (15 and 19), but it was also his least efficient volume shooting night of the season. Markkanen looked great in the first half (16), but then turned in an 0-3 second half. So we’ll default back to Sexton, the Jazz’s leading scorer who also did a bunch of other stuff (22-4-4) and had the best (or, least negative) plus-minus among the starters.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of action

The Jazz’s next six are in Salt Lake City. Here are the next seven nights worth of games:

• Monday, March 17: Jazz vs. Bulls. Chicago was sitting 13 game under .500 until a couple of weeks ago when they randomly turned it on for a 6-4 stretch. Nikola Vucevic is finally back at it after a 3-week absence, and he and Coby White are the offensive leaders of the post-Zach LaVine era with season averages of 19 apiece. Josh Giddey has missed the last two, and Lonzo Ball hasn’t played in March, so the Bulls are seeing more of rookie Matas Buzelis instead.
• Wednesday, March 19: Jazz vs. Wizards. Max scorer Jordan Poole missed part one of Jazz-Wiz, but has played every game since and it shooting 48-44-87 splits. The Wiz have someone won six of 10, including a surprising 3-point victory in Denver, in which rookie Alex Sarr poured in 34. Bilal Coulibaly may miss the rest of the season with what the team is calling a 4-6 week hamstring pull.
• Friday, March 21: Jazz vs. Celtics. Boston had to sweat the stretch run in a 114-108 victory against the Jazz last week (without Jayson Tatum and his 27-9-6 averages), but they’ve still won six of seven, the lone loss coming in a tightly contested potential Finals preview against OKC. Utah will be their first stop on a 6-game roadie with only one opponent currently in playoff position. Al Horford and Derrick White didn’t play in Saturday’s win, and Jaylen Brown left early.
• Sunday, March 23: Jazz vs. Cavs. Donovan Mitchell’s (and Georges Niang’s!) lone visit back to the Beehive State comes just days after Cleveland’s 16-game win streak was finally halted by the Magic. But this is a wildly good team, with a historically great offensive efficiency and a top-5 defense. The Cavs are +11.3 per 100 when their three 2025 All-Stars (Mitchell, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley) share the court. And they improved the supporting cast, too, at 13-1 since adding De’Andre Hunter, who’s shooting over 48% from deep since arriving from Atlanta. 

Random stuff from the Jazz community

Bracket time! Here’s our annual look at which Jazz players’ alma maters head into the tourney as favorites.

• Two No. 1 seeds are represented by alumni on the Utah Jazz: Filipowski’s Duke in the East Region, and Kessler’s Auburn in the South. (Kessler also played for UNC, which needs to win a “First Four” game to claim 11th.)
• Sexton’s Alabama and Jaden Springer’s Tennessee are both No. 2 seeds.
• Markkanen’s Arizona is the No. 4 in the East.
• Jordan Clarkson’s Missouri in No. 6 in the West, and his previous school (Tulsa) didn’t make it.
• Johnny Juzang’s UCLA will face off against Utah State as a 7th seed, with the winner taking on Springer’s alma mater. (Juzang also played sparingly for Kentucky, a No. 3 seed.) Svi Mykhailiuk’s Kansas is also a 7th seed.
• Keyonte George’s Baylor is seeded ninth, also in the East — meaning that only of his his, Markkanen’s and Filipowski’s alma maters can make it as far as the Elite Eight.
• Collier’s USC, Brice Sensabaugh’s Ohio State, Williams’ Colorado, John Collins’ Wake Forest and Taylor Hendricks’ UCF didn’t make the tourney. KJ Martin didn’t play collegiately, spending his gap year instead at the IMG Academy.

Happy March!

That does it for this week. We have four of these things left, followed by a pretty pivotal offseason.