Shaq Harrison is one of 23 free agents our Clark Schmutz sizes up ahead of Friday’s start to free agency. (Quinn Harris via USA Today)
With NBA Free Agency fast approaching, I spent the last several weeks examining every possible NBA free agent this summer and evaluating their fit with the Utah Jazz. To help me do this, I broke down their potential fits into 5 categories: offensive fit, defensive fit, availability, cost, and organization need and fit. If the player wasn’t restricted or rumored to be signing with another team already, their availability landed at a 5. The measure of a player’s cost is also obviously relative and their score indicated whether they were an overpay or a bargain. James Harden and Treveon Graham would get very different “cost” scores if they were both projected to make $10 million. Organizational fit depended on how much the current team needs that player’s skillset and allowed for extenuating factors. It pretty much keeps Malik Beasley from even making this list at all.
-Let’s assume the Jazz are not going to go into the luxury tax this offseason. They don’t have a proven winner yet, and it’s probably a bad business decision for them to delve too far into the tax at this point. The luxury tax line is $132 million.
-If the Jazz draft a player at #23 in the draft, they will have about $123 million committed to 14 players, which means they will only have $9 million to spend this offseason. The Jazz could trade players (Mike Conley, Tony Bradley, etc), or stretch salaries (Ed Davis), or waive unguaranteed contracts (Georges Niang, Nigel Williams-Goss, Juwan Morgan) to increase their spending ability, but I think it’s safe to assume that the Jazz can afford to either re-sign Jordan Clarkson, or spend the full Mid-Level Exception, but not both unless other moves are made.
-The next assumption is that the following players will either pick up their player options and avoid free agency or else not be a free agent option for the Jazz:
Anthony Davis- Opted out, but widely expected to re-sign in L.A.
DeMar DeRozan- Opted in
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Gordon Hayward
Nic Batum- Opted in
Otto Porter- Opted in
Andre Drummond
Kelly Olynyk
Evan Fournier- Opted in
Brandon Ingram- Will sign a max contract with the Pelicans and also not be a free agency option
Bogdan Bogdanovic- Will be acquired by Milwaukee in a sign-and-trade this weekend..
Jerami Grant- Will resign with Denver for $15-18 million/year.
Davis Bertans- Will sign with the Wizards
Robin Lopez- Would be a great backup for the Jazz, but maybe next summer. He should pick up his $5 million option (Surprise! He did not. He should be on this list somewhere right around 11.)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope- Given that the Lakers just traded Danny Green and KCP is a Klutch Sports client, the chances of him getting away from the Lakers are zero.
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Without further ado, here’s how I foresee the fit of 23 additonal free agents.
A familiar face
Offensive Fit: 5.0
Defensive Fit: 9.0
Availability: 9.0
Cost: 7.0 ($6-10 million/year)
Organizational Fit/Need: 9.0
Analysis: The mutual interest between Favors and the Jazz is very real and Favors is an ideal fit with the organization and community. However, even though the shooting is much improved throughout the roster since Favors was last on the Jazz, there is little proof that the Jazz would be able to navigate a Favors/Gobert pairing offensively and that may relegate him to 16 backup minutes a night. That’s not an ideal use of free agent capital. Defensively he would boost the Jazz back among the elite teams. If the Jazz have to pay Favors $8-10 million a year, they would need to shed Davis and Bradley’s money to justify the move. If the Jazz can get Favors for $5 or $6 million, he simply becomes one of the best possible offseason signings for the Jazz.
Harrison is an athlete and a defensive pest.
Offensive Fit- 5.0
Defensive Fit- 9.0
Availability- 8.0
Cost- 9.0 ($2-4 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 8.0
Analysis: Harrison brings three things the Jazz need: elite defense, athleticism, and relative affordability. He will no longer be a restrcted free agent, as the Bulls declined to extend him a qualifying offer. Harrison brings most of the defensive chops of his teammate Dunn, while also having more offensive game worth exploring. It’s hard to believe his 38% from 3 point land on only 1 attempt a game last season, but there’s something there. Harrison might just need an opportunity to become a defense-first spot up shooter for a playoff team. Plus he is in the upper upper echelon of athletes in the NBA. Jazz need some guys like that.
Holiday has averaged 25 to 31 minutes per game the past three seasons.
Offensive Fit- 8.0
Defensive Fit- 10.0
Availability- 4.0
Cost- 6.0 ($8-10 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 9.0
Analysis: Other than Kris Dunn, Justin Holiday is probably the best defensive fit the Jazz could ask for this offseason. Holiday has a long wingspan which he uses to disrupt passing lanes and defend the rim. Offensively, his elite spot up 3 point shooting fits the Jazz offense as well, although his ability to put the ball on the court and create for himself and others appears to be very low. He is almost like a Royce O’Neale that is better at defending guards. That would be a pretty slick fit with the Jazz. It’s hard to see the Jazz convincing him to sign, however, because there will be multiple teams trying to get Holiday to sign for their Mid-Level Exception. And while $8-10 million/year feels like the right price range for a player of his ability, I do wonder if he would live up to that contract over 3 or 4 years. He could feel like Tony Snell in a season or two. Jazz had Holiday on their summer league team in 2013 and it’s hard to know if that would help or hurt the Jazz’s chances of signing him back this summer.
The melhor amigo of Utah’s Gobert is also a pretty good bench guard.
Offensive Fit- 8.0
Defensive Fit- 6.0
Availabiltiy- 8.0
Cost- 8.0 ($2 million)
Org Fit/Need- 7.0
Analysis: In an offseason that turned out to have its fair share of missteps last summer, letting Raul Neto go and replacing him with Emmanuel Mudiay was maybe worst on the list. Neto is an elite spot up shooter and an excellent creator of offense for his teammates. He’s small and his health is an issue, but he competes on defense and willingly guards opponents’ best players. For the minimum, the Jazz will be hard pressed to find a better player. Plus, he might be the backup point guard if Conley moves on in the next 6 to 12 months. On top of that, if the Jazz are serious about keeping Rudy Gobert long term, they should bring back his best friend. This is a no brainer offseason move. Make up for the mistake.
Temple was involved in a Jazz rumor during Quin Snyder’s first season in Utah.
Garrett Temple- G
Offensive Fit- 5.0
Defensive Fit- 7.0
Availability- 8.0
Cost- 9.0 (vet min, $2.5 million)
Org Fit/Need- 7.0
Analysis: Temple is a solid veteran who has been linked to the Jazz in offseasons past. What he lacks in spot up and off the dribble 3 point shooting, he makes up with better than average playmaking. And although he’s an average wing defender, his age also means he can’t be relied on to guard the opponents best players. Temple is likely going to the team of his choice at the vet minimum and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in a Jazz uniform next season. He wouldn’t be the difference between winning a championship, but he would be a good 8th or 9th man.
Another former Jazzman who makes sense.
Offensive Fit- 7.0
Defensive Fit- 8.0
Availability-6.0
Cost- 6.0 ($3-5 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 7.0
Analysis: Wesley Matthews is only an average 3 point shooter on both spot ups and pull ups, but his willingness to take open 3s is at the top of the league and opens up space for offenses. He is willing to guard the opponents best wing players and was effective at doing so last season with the Bucks. I thought he guarded Jimmy Butler well in their playoff matchup, for instance. Matthews has already declined his player option and rumors have him going to the Lakers. He would be a good fit there, but the Bucks or any Western Conference team with title aspirations, should trump their offer and pay Matthews something along the lines of 3 years, $12-15 million with a player option on the 3rd year. If the Jazz landed Matthews, it would allow them to draft the best player available in the draft and not feel pressured to get a defensive wing.
Dunn is elite defensively… and not at all a threat on offense.
Offensive Fit- 3.0
Defensive Fit- 10.0
Availability- 6.0
Cost- 6.0 ($8-10 million/year)
Organization Fit/Need- 9.0
Analysis- Kris Dunn is simply one of the best defensive guards in the NBA, so his need and defensive fit with the Jazz are about as good as it gets. He’s now an unrestricted free agent, which makes him available and probably lowers his cost a bit. Dunn’s career lack of three point attempts (1.8/game) and efficiency (30.6%) make him a difficult fit offensively. But he can defend and that probably makes him worth a look alone from a Jazz standpoint. He also moved from 13th to 6th on this list when the news broke that he was now an unrestricted free agent.
Crowder was a fan favorite during a brief stint in Utah.
Offensive Fit- 7.0
Defensive Fit- 8.0
Availability- 5.0
Cost-5.0 ($8-15 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 8.0
Analysis: Jae Crowder would be welcomed back to Utah with open arms and although he doesn’t make a high percentage of his three pointers, his willingness to shoot creates space for offenses. Even as a slightly overrated defender, he does compete and guards multiple positions effectively. He’d cost the full Mid-Level Exception, but if Miami wants to bring him back for 1 year at $15ish million, his availability is probably zero.
Jones is young, tough and athletic.
Offensive Fit- 5.0
Defensive Fit- 8.0
Availability- 8.0
Cost- 6.0 (6-8 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 6.0
Analysis: Derrick Jones Jr provides the type of elite athleticism that the Jazz desperately need. Add the fact that he is only 23 years old, and Jones makes for a good target for the Jazz this offseason. Jones would help the Jazz defensively with his versatility and willingness to guard the opponent’s best players. However, Jones poses very little threat from beyond the three point line and has yet to earn 25 minutes per game with a good team. Jones is an elite rim finisher with some tantalizing physical gifts and room to grow as an offensive player, but there is no question that the Jazz would be making a somewhat risky move if they targeted him with their MLE.
Ibaka can protect the paint and knock down corner 3s.
Offensive Fit- 9.0
Defensive Fit- 8.0
Availability- 3.0
Cost- 6.0 ($10 million/year; full MLE)
Org fit/Need- 6.0
Analysis: It was probably a bit of an outlier season, but Ibaka shot 40% from 3 point land last year. His perimeter defense isn’t terrific for a big man, but he could play alongside Rudy for some of the game and would make for a defensive nightmare for opponents at the rim both as a 4 and a backup center. He will most likely stay with Toronto for a one year $15-20 million deal, but if he hits the open market, I think he jumps up to one of the most 3 desirable players for the Jazz in the offseason. He’s the type of guy that could change championship outcomes for somebody this offseason.
Clarkson played a huge role for the 2019-20 Jazz.
Offensive Fit- 9.0
Defensive Fit- 3.0
Availability- 7.0
Cost- 4.0 ($12-14 million/year)
Organizational Fit/Need- 8.0
Analysis: I think we all know Clarkson’s strengths and weaknesses, having seen them up close and personal. He fits the Jazz bench better than you’d think as a possession eater and bucket getter. His defense leaves something to be desired, but doesn’t kill the team as much as other sixth man types. Clarkson is also a great teammate and fun guy to have represent the team. The Jazz want him back, but at some point his asking price becomes prohibitive. I suspect the Jazz will offer a 2-3 year deal in the $12-14 million a year price range, and if Clarkson prefers that over a Mid-Level offer with one of the California teams, he stays in Utah.
The 2011 Jazz lottery pick is now a solid bench veteran.
Offensive Fit- 8.0
Defensive Fit- 3.0
Availability: 6.0
Cost: 8.0 (2 years, $8 million)
Organizational Fit /Need: 6.0
Analysis: Burks would give the Jazz 80% of Jordan Clarkson’s value at potentially 33% of the price tag. That extra 20 percent matters though. Burks especially lags behind Clarkson in his ability to finish at the rim and makes shots harder than they need to be in the restricted area. He does draw a significantly higher amount of shooting fouls and is a good free throw shooter. Burks is not the spot up shooter that Clarkson is, but has a better off the bounce game. I’d also argue that neither is a great defender, but Burks has more defensive tools and potential. If Clarkson chooses elsewhere, Burks becomes a very viable backup option.
Baynes can roll, spot up, and defend decently.
Offensive Fit- 6.0
Defensive Fit- 7.0
Availability- 6.0
Cost- 6.0 ($4-6 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 6.0
Analysis: Baynes would provide better than average defense and average shooting at the backup center spot. Much like with Favors, if the Jazz paid $5-7 million to Baynes in Free Agency, they would need to clear some money from either Davis or Bradley or both to justify this move. The Jazz could always use more Australians on their team, though.
Harkless is a combo forward with middling 3-point numbers.
Offensive Fit- 5.0
Defensive Fit- 8.0
Availability- 5.0
Cost- 6.0 ($7-10 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 6.0
Analysis: Harkless has been a name that has been tied to the Jazz for years on blogs and social media. I wonder if the idea of Harkless is better than the reality though. Harkless is a very good defensive player who impacts games and would be a good option to guard the LeBron James and Kawhi Leonards of the world, but wouldn’t be a huge help against Damian Lillard, James Harden,Devin Booker or Jamal Murray. The Jazz need to decide, or probably have decided, which type of defensive stopper they need. Lots of teams will be interested in Harkless for either the taxpayer or non-taxpayer MLE, so the Jazz may have to offer him the full MLE at multiple years to get him to Utah.
Once consider the better of the Morrii, Markieff could be a bargain this year.
Offensive Fit- 7.0
Defensive Fit- 5.0
Availability- 6.0
Cost- 6.0 ($4-6 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 5.0
Analysis: Markieff is not the player that his brother is, but he is a little bit better at defense and rebounding and passing. Markieff will probably cost a third of what Marcus garners on the open market and would be a decent fit for the Jazz at the Bi-Annual Exception, should they use it. He would increase the size and defense of the Jazz from day 1.
Wood has been centrally featured in Detroit.
Offensive Fit- 8.0
Defensive Fit- 8.0
Availability-3.0
Cost- 5.0 ($12-14 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 4.0
Analysis: Christian Wood is like Derrick Favors with a little less rim protection but a lot more floor spacing. I’m not sure he could play with Gobert, but it would be possible. Wood most likely stays in Detroit for more than the MLE, but if he gets to the open market and $10 million a year is his price tag, he will be a great get for some team in free agency. I am fairly certain that the Jazz would have a hard time getting Wood to choose them over every other team that can offer the same.
A 3-and-D prototype who was overpaid on his last deal.
Offensive Fit- 3.0
Defensive Fit- 8.0
Availability- 6.0
Cost- 5.0 ($3-5 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 6.0
Analysis: Bazemore is a really terrible shooter and only decent in other aspects of offense that the Jazz would need. With that said, very few NBA players are as effective on the perimeter as Bazemore was last season. Bazemore is probably your prototypical average NBA player and the thought of the Jazz signing him certainly elicits no excitement. But if you were only paying Bazemore the Bi Annual Exception or part of the Mid-Level, he would feel a lot better than the $19 million player he was last season. I thought Torrey Craig would be a good target for the Jazz, but Bazemore is a better overall defender and not as bad at shooting. Plus he’s not restricted like Craig is, making him a more valuable free agent target.
A career 37% shooter from outside.
Offensive Fit- 7.0
Defensive Fit- 7.0
Availability- 5.0
Cost- 4.0 ($5-6 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 5.0
Analysis: Like Wes Matthews, Green is an average catch and shoot 3 point shooter, but he is absolutely willing to let it fly. He’s a surprisingly effective interior defender who provides some rim protection. The only downside is that Green has a player option for $5 million with the Clippers this season so the Jazz would have to match or exceed that value in a contract. The Jazz could certainly offer a bigger role than either of the LA teams and a possible starting job. He would be a nice fit in Utah.
A former second-round find by Utah, Millsap became a star in Atlanta.
Offensive Fit- 5.0
Defensive Fit- 8.0
Availability- 5.0
Cost- 5.0 ($8-10 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 4.0
Analysis: Millsap would give a needed boost to the overall defense of the Jazz and while his 3 point percentages are pretty good, his timidity from distance would record scratch the offense on occasion. He’s like the anti-Jae Crowder in this regard. In all likelihood the Jazz just witnessed up close and personal, the end of Paul Millsap as a playoff starter. It’s also unclear how Millsap’s departure from the Jazz would affect his willingness to return. I’d welcome Paul back in Utah with the MLE, but there are probably better fits out there as well.
A double-digit scorer for six straight seasons.
Offensive Fit- 9.0
Defensive Fit- 3.0
Availability-5.0
Cost- 4.0 ($10-12 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 5.0
Analysis: With his elite spot up and pull up 3 point shooting (41% and 39% respectively), Marcus Morris is a nearly perfect offensive fit with the Jazz. His unwillingness to pass is his major offensive weakness in Jazz terms, although it has worked for Clarkson. Defensively, Morris offers very little, other than having a proper power forward sized body. He is a terrible rebounder and offers little in terms of perimeter or interior defense. Morris will likely garner a full mid level from someone as a low point, unless he wants to play for less for a tax paying championship team. Marcus Morris would allow Bogdanovic to slide to the 3 which would be ideal, but I’m not convinced the Jazz’s defense would improve enough with Morris as it needs to.
Teeague was involved in the Jazz’s 3-team trade for George Hill.
Offensive Fit- 7.0
Defensive Fit- 2.0
Availability- 5.0
Cost- 9.0
Organizational Fit/Need- 2.0
Analysis: The last few seasons have featured great former players who took surprisingly small amounts of money and ended up becoming impact players. Teague has a chance to follow in the footsteps of Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo. The 12 year veteran is a decent offensive player, especially off the bounce, but is also a terrible defender. Unless the Jazz trade Mike Conley in the next month, Teague makes very little sense for them. Plus there’s the whole Ricky Rubio incident which will still be a sore spot for some Jazz fans. But I bet some team gets him for the veteran minimum.
The wiry forward can score.
Offensive Fit- 8.0
Defensive Fit-2.0
Availability- 6.0
Cost- 4.0 ($6-8 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 4.0
Analysis: Portis had a very good 3 point shooting season last year for a big man and is legitimately 7 feet tall. That is where the intrigue for the Jazz probably ends, however. Portis rates as one of the worst defensive big men that this free agency has to offer. He can’t get out and defend on the perimeter and he doesn’t defend the rim particularly well. He’s an above average rebounder on both sides of the ball, but it’s hard to imagine effectively playing him with Rudy Gobert in most matchups. He isolates quite a bit, but isn’t particularly effective and turns the ball over as much as almost anyone in the league. If the Jazz paid Portis anything more than the bi-annual exception, it would be an overpay.
An elite backup big whom the Jazz saw up close in the playoffs.
Offensive Fit- 3.0
Defensive Fit- 7.0
Availability- 3.0
Cost- 4.0 ($8-10 million/year)
Org Fit/Need- 4.0
Analysis: Plumlee is one of the best backup centers in the league. He brings high energy, high defense and especially high offensive rebounding. He isn’t highly skilled offensively, but rolls hard to the rim and is a decent passer and playmaker. He makes very little sense for the Jazz, since he can’t play even a minute with Rudy in the modern NBA, but I’d expect a team like the Blazers, Hawks, or Hornets to use some or all of their Mid-Level type money on Plumlee. (Plumlee is destined to play in a Jazz uniform, but it will most likely be when he is well passed contributing at an NBA level. But admit it, he belongs in Utah at some point.)
Harris is a known shooter who’s underrated in other areas of the game.
Offensive Fit- 9.0
Defensive Fit- 4.0
Availability- 2.0
Cost- 3.0 ($15-18 million/year)
Organizational Fit/Need- 2.0
Analysis: Harris would fit in very comfortably in a Jazz offense and of course the Jazz would love to have him. But Harris is a popular free agent in a somewhat shallow free agency class, meaning he scores terribly in availability and cost. The Nets are going to bring him back. The other issue for the Jazz is that Harris is basically an A- version of Bojan Bogdanovic, so the Jazz could use Harris, but don’t really need him.
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