Active October as Jazz Weigh Decisions

Jared Butler and other young Jazzmen are competing for roster spots as the regular season approaches. (Rick Egan via sltrib.com)

With all due respect to the trade deadline and the summer transaction window, these few weeks in October are by far the busiest in the NBA year when it comes to the sheer volume of business that gets done. Over the next few days, teams will sign, waive, sign-and-waive, convert and even trade dozens of NBA players as they get ready to finalize their rosters. Then there is the extension window and option-year decisions for rookie scale players. There’s just a lot going on transactionally, even if most of it won’t have the tectonic impact of a big July free agent commitment or an in-season blockbuster trade.

The Jazz will be party to this flurry of activity. They have some decisions to make by Monday, others they’ll need to make by Halloween, and still others that could linger on into the season.

The first set of important decisions must be made in the next five days: which 15 guys will still be on standard NBA contracts when the deadline for finalizing the roster passes on Monday?

Camp cuts: 15+2

The Jazz currently employ 20 professional basketball players: 17 with guaranteed contracts, a pair of two-way players, and the non-guaranteed contract of Cody Zeller.

Twenty is the maximum roster limit, so they can’t sign anybody else until they first open up a roster spot. But just as importantly, they have to bring their roster to 15 standard NBA deals — plus the two two-ways — by Monday. Because 17 guys have guaranteed contracts, that means they’ll likely have to eat the money tied to at least two players… unless they can trade one or two (more on that in a minute).

The Jazz are not interested in waiving somebody if it means having their salary sit on the books beyond this season. That rules out some potential targets. Guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker appears to be safe despite an expiring contract, after ingratiating himself to a new coaching staff and earning rotation minutes.

That leaves an unlucky foursome of young guys fighting for two roster spots: the Jazz can likely only keep two of Udoka Azubuike, Leandro Bolmaro, Jared Butler and Stanley Johnson. All four appear to be outside the main rotation as of today, and all four have no financial guarantees beyond this season. Each one makes between $1.5 and 2.5 million, making them the lowest-paid Jazzmen with guaranteed salaries. For all those reasons, it’s extremely likely the final two cuts come from that group. (The Jazz will also likely cut Zeller, a move which won’t cost them anything on the cap sheet.)

Bolmaro and Butler are both guards trying to lock up spots on an already guard-heavy roster, so it seems unlikely that both of them will survive final cuts. Each guy has arguments in favor: Butler has more innate scoring ability and was an in-house draft project who has been in the Jazz’s program for a year; Bolmaro is bigger, possesses some more tradiitonal point guard skills, and is a first-round talent. Ultimately, neither guy has established himself as a rotational player — both stayed under the 400 minute mark as rookies. Both were inefficient shooters, but Butler’s per-shot efficiency was closer to respectable territory, and he passed the ball better. Bolmaro rebounded better and showed a bit more defensive ability — unsurprising on both counts given his 6-foot-6 frame.

It’s close. But for a front office that is said to value positional size, the tie might go to the bigger guard.

If one of the guards winds up sacrificed at the altar of roster balance, then that means one of Azubuike/Johnson likely has to go, too. This writer’s guess at the moment: “Dok” lands the 15th roster spot for now.

Johnson is the closest thing to an established NBA player in this quartet, and I’ve heard that he has been great influence in training camp. But he arrived in Utah mostly as salary ballast in a summer trade, and the Jazz are already swimming in guys who are 6’6″ and under. He’s a non-shooter, non-passer and non-ballhandler, all skill sets that you ideally want in your wings in a modern offense. He has generally been a plus defender throughout his career and he plays with energy, but it’s not clear where he’d find minutes.

Dok can at least be slotted as a third-string center. He has struggled to stay healthy, but had some success in a winter stretch where injuries opened the door for him: he average 10 & 8 over a 6-game stretch in February, on 77% shooting.

Another thing Butler and Johnson have in common: they are both on true minimum contracts, meaning any NBA team could acquire them without having to match salary. If the Jazz find an interested team that wants one of them for free (technically for cash or a top-55 protected second or something like that, since teams in a trade have to send *something* for a trade to be legal), they don’t have to eat the salary associated with that player. That has to increase the likelihood of Butler/Johnson being the guy(s) that don’t make the final roster, because all 29 teams could theoretically add them outright, whereas only teams with cap room or an exception could acquire the other two.

(No, they’re not going to waive Rudy Gay, who is owed salary next season. Also no on the idea that’s been picking up social media steam that they might cut Simone Fontecchio. Just… no.)

The reality here: it’s highly likely this decision won’t matter much in the long run. Whoever the Jazz hang onto for now could eventually be cut for roster flexibility or could lose his job later as Utah adds talent via the grundle of draft picks they own. It still behooves them to factor in which guys have a better chance of “hitting” and offering some value to their rebuild, which is why my guess is they keep the less redundant Bolmaro and Dok for now.

Still time to trade? 

Broadly speaking, this is a difficult time of year to pull off substantial NBA trades. Most teams are focused on finalizing their roster, not reshaping it. The most likely Jazz trade to happen before the start of the season would be the type described above: the Jazz offer a player they were going to move on from anyway to an interested team for virtually nothing in return, and in so doing they avoid a dead cap hit.

That said, not everybody is done answering larger (or at least medium-sized) questions about their construction. And for a team in “seller” mode like the Utah Jazz, that could mean there is still a chance to elbow their way into something that solves a roster math problem and/or produces an asset for the war chest.

The most obvious opportunity might be the ongoing Jae Crowder situation. The veteran forward wants out of Phoenix, but ideally the competitive Suns need to get something usable in return for him, and bonus points if it cuts their tax bill. The teams interested in a 9-month Crowder rental are at least borderline contenders, meaning by definition they don’t want to send out valuable pieces. The Jazz could help both teams get what they want by taking some salary and supplying Phoenix with one of their veterans.

A Jordan Clarkson-to-Phoenix rumor surfaced on Wednesday, but honestly, it feels like Phoenix is one of those teams that could actually use a productive version of Gay. He’d play the exact role/position that Crowder vacated in the rotation, and he’d be $18-19 million cheaper than Crowder when factoring in luxury tax costs. A construct where Phoenix gets Gay, a team like Memphis or Atlanta gets Crowder, and the Jazz wind up with a contract they could cut and a small asset doesn’t seem all that crazy. (My theory is that the Jazz would probably consider cutting Gay if not for the $6.5M player option for next season, so trading his two years for even a slightly larger 1-year salary they could cut actually makes some sense.) Of course, that’s all very contingent on whether the Suns believe Gay can access his pre-Utah performance level.

Even a direct Gay-Dario Saric swap would save the Suns $14 to $15 million without too much basketball cost, and they haven’t really been using Saric. But again, it’s unclear whether Phoenix has any interest whatsoever in Gay, who struggled last season.

And then there’s the Laker stuff. Los Angeles would still likely be open to surrendering a single unprotected pick to get off of Russell Westbrook’s $47 million expiring contract, but supposedly doesn’t have interest in Mike Conley, whose contract could hurt their 2023 cap flexibility. The Jazz would almost need to include Conley in a Westbrook swap, but maybe there is a team out there who could use Conley and would flip an expiring to L.A. Washington addressed its point guard need by adding two floor generals, but neither is a solid starter type. Would they send Will Barton to Hollywood in order to upgrade their playmaking? Dallas still seems like a team that needs another offensive creator, but it looks like they may instead talk themselves into the unspectacular Facundo Campazzo. Chicago makes some sense as a Conley spot with Lonzo Ball’s injury, but they have few tradable contracts in that range.

All told, it seems fairly unlikely the Jazz will solve their roster math issue with a major trade in the next 4 days. More likely, they will waive/trade two guaranteed guys to get their roster to 15+2 and then they will continue to monitor the market for possible trades as the season goes on.

Contenders’ needs will be clearer after 15-20 games anyway, and trades get considerably easier to engineer in mid December through January, when most recent free agent signees become trade-eligible again.

Exhibit 10 shuffle

The other thing we’ll see the Jazz do a bit more of over the next few days is rotate some non-guaranteed guys through on what are referred to as “Exhibit 10” deals.

Players who are cut from an NBA team’s training camp roster can be claimed by that team’s G League affiliate using something known as “affiliate player” rights, as long as they didn’t get more than $50K in guaranteed salary from the NBA club. So signing a player and then waiving him is often a way for teams to send talent to their G League team. Teams will often approach guys they think would fit well with their G League squad early in the summer with an offer to guarantee most or all of that $50K figure. Since the standard G League salary if just $37K, players are generally glad to commit to a specific affiliated squad if it means more than doubling their income.

Up to six guys can be acquired by each G League team in this manner, and the SLC Stars can already claim affiliate player rights to Paris Bass, Jeenathan Williams and Darryl Morsell because of their brief Jazz contracts. It was reported earlier this summer that Kofi Cockburn would get similar treatment, and then the Jazz/Stars can still perform that operation up to two more times.

This won’t have a huge direct impact on the Jazz’s team. Once the Exhibit 10 guy has been waived and becomes a Stars player, the Jazz no longer have any kind of exclusive rights, and any team in the Association can call that player up for a contract. But it’s still a useful maneuver for the NBA parent clubs: they want good players on their G League team, too. When the Jazz inevitably send players down to play or practice with the Stars, they want the basketball reps those guys get there to produce authentic and meaningful development. So they’ll try to fill the Stars’ roster with guys who will allow coach Nathan Peavy to run a similar system and philosophy.

Expect them to sign (and then waive) Cockburn and potentially a couple of other G League-bound prospects in the next few days. But since they’re currently at 20 roster spots, they’ll first need to waive Zeller or make one of the cuts/trades we speculated about up top.

Rookie contract options & decisions

Unless they have already moved on from Azubuike and/or Bolmaro by then, the Jazz also have to make decisions about their 2023-24 team options before the end of the month. Dok’s fourth-year option would pay him $3,923,484 if exercised, and Bolmaro’s third year would earn him $2,588,400.

Those aren’t huge amounts, except when you consider that those men have played 32 and 35 NBA games, respectively. That’s why it’s not a no-brainer that they’ll give themselves an extra year with either guy. Since the deadline isn’t until 10/31, those dudes still have a week’s worth of preseason practices plus eight regular season games to make their case for having their 2023-24 salaries picked up.

If the Jazz decline those options and then one of Azubuike/Bolmaro pop this upcoming season, they’ll still have free agent rights that enable them to re-sign them next summer, but they will be unrestricted free agents at that point.

This month — October 18, to be exact — also brings the deadline for players entering the fourth season of their rookie scale contract to agree to an extension. The only player the Jazz have in that situation is Alexander-Walker, and it’s unlikely he gets an extension given that the Jazz value flexibility as they rebuild. They can still make the Canadian guard a restricted free agent next summer if they choose to.

Two-way spots

Johnny Juzang and Micah Potter will occupy the two “two-way” roster spots, a special contract type that allows the Jazz and Stars to more freely share those players.

It’s technically still possible that another player on a non-guaranteed deal could play their way past Juzang/Potter and bump them out of a 2-way spot. The Jazz could theoretically still waive one of their 2-way guys and convert the prevailing player to a 2-way deal (as allowed by the “Exhibit 10” contract provision). But it doesn’t sound like they will. (Also remember: none of the players who are candidates to have their guaranteed salaries cut are eligible to play on 2-way contracts.)

So yeah, it will be a busy few days for the Jazz front office and coaching staff as they make roster decisions, weigh trade options, usher young guys to the Stars, and more.

While it seems that few if any of these decisions will reverberate through the ages, remember that it was an October transaction that landed beloved Joe Ingles in Utah, and a 2009 training camp decision put Wesley Matthews on the Jazz roster. Some of this stuff winds up mattering.

Either way, the next few days will be an extremely active time, and one that will have some bearing on the team Jazz fans engage with for the next several months.