An Improved Clarkson Leads Early 6MOY Race Behind Elite Shooting Season

Clarkson, shown here attacking the hoop, has cleaned up his shot profile and is red hot to start the year. (via ESPN.com)

Jordan Clarkson is in the midst of one of the hottest starts in the NBA,  averaging 17.5 ppg on 50-43-94 shooting splits. He’s the 20th best ranked player in 538’s RAPTOR ratings (one spot ahead of All-Star teammate Rudy Gobert). The reserve guard has made significant changes to his game and may be bringing home some hardware for it if he keeps his production anywhere near his current level.

Of course, there are some obvious facts to temper the excitement. First, the Jazz have only played 13 games. Players also have hot streaks and slumps over the course of a season. And this season is particularly funky and unusual.

Based on those caveats, it may be unreasonable to expect Clarkson to finish the season above the vaunted 50-40-90 shooting thresholds. We’ll explore just how difficult that is. But at this point it’s more than reasonable to expect Clarkson to compete for the Sixth Man of the Year award. Perhaps the most important question is: what is Jordan doing differently and is it sustainable for the rest of the season?

How Has Clarkson’s Game Changed?

The most simple explanation for Clarkson’s improvement is that he’s replaced long twos with threes and rim attempts. This is the way in the modern NBA. Jordan started his transformation last season and is continuing it now.

First, let’s talk about frequency. Per Cleaning the Glass, before last year Clarkson took roughly 20% of his shots as long twos and 30% as threes. This season he’s taking 1% of his shots as long twos and 53% as threes. That’s about as drastic a shot profile change you can make. Is the amount of threes sustainable? Well, for reference the Jazz are shooting 43% of their shots from three (second in the league), up from 38% last year. Duncan Robinson shot 85% of his shots as threes last year. So yeah, if anything Clarkson can continue pushing the limits rather than revert back.

Clarkson hasn’t eliminated mid-range shots altogether: 26% of his shots are classified as short mid-range, or shots from four to 14 feet, generally push shots, floaters and short pull-ups. He is really good at them, usually in the 80th to 90th percentile for a wing. This part of his game is a juxtaposition from Utah’s offensive style as you watch him methodically break down his defender with pump fakes, crafty footwork, and athletic contortion.

I like how particularly on drives toward his strong hand, he’s been driving *in front* of the rim (making it a harder shot for trailing defenders to legally block), then jump-stopping to change his momentum and jump toward the rim. pic.twitter.com/cTVF5kXHhm

— dan clayton (@danclayt0n) December 31, 2020

The efficiency numbers are more impressive when you consider that Clarkson does not get to the line often. He’s currently averaging 1.2 FTA per game, down from his career average of 2.3. While Clarkson is good at floaters, those shots don’t result in free throws very often (a problem Mike Conley shares). While Jordan is skilled enough to get buckets through slithery maneuvers instead of brute strength, perhaps the next evolution of his game involves drawing more contact around the rim.

Clarkson’s shot profile is trending the right direction, but his accuracy may regress toward the mean. Then again, 43% from three is not an outlandish number, and he’s shot 40% from three for a season before. Conley’s strong year and a bolstered bench might enable Clarkson to sustain a higher percentages.

Can Clarkson Win the Sixth Man of the Year Award?

Traditionally, the 6MOY is given out largely based on points per game. Look at winners from the last ten years:

Clarkson fits the mold. What’s impressive is that he’s only playing 25 minutes per game. He averaged 24.3 mpg last season with the Jazz, so barring a rotation shakeup, that’s likely to hold. Extrapolate his scoring per 29.8 minutes (the average mpg of the last ten 6MOY winners) and you get 20.9 ppg, good for second best in the past decade.

Where does Jordan fit among the top bench scorers this season?

Per https://en.hispanosnba.com/stats/players/bench-players

LaVert was a strong contender for the award — a bona fide scorer on a high profile team. Unfortunately a small mass was found on his kidney as the forward was being traded from Brooklyn to Indiana, and he may miss too many games to qualify.

Terrence Ross is another solid candidate with a hot start to the season, but previous winners tend to be on contending teams and the 9–4 Jazz project to finish above the 6–7 Magic. Chris Boucher and Shake Milton are having breakout seasons and are worth keeping an eye on.

Patty Mills, Goran Dragic, Eric Gordon, and Derrick Rose are all proven veterans whose reputations could fortify their chances. Rewarding a former MVP who buys into a new role is a feel good story. But previous winners tend to be career bench players, rather than repurposed starters.

Again, it’s only been 13 games, but Clarkson was a contender last year, and the competition is different this season. Former Thunder supersub Dennis Schroder is now starting for the Lakers, reigning 6MOY winner Montrezl Harrell has had a slow start, and 3-time 6MOY Lou Williams appears to be slowing down.

Can Clarkson Join the 50-40-90 Club?

While trophies are fun, and especially appreciated by a small market fanbase starved for national recognition, joining the 50-40-90 club would be a much more significant achievement. It’s also an improbable expectation. But hey, anomalies, happen. Let’s explore how rare an accomplishment it is, just for kicks.

The club members are: Larry Bird, Mark Price, Reggie Miller, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzski, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, and Malcolm Brogdon. That’s it.  Even the most consistently great shooters tend to miss one of the three metrics by a hair. Steph Curry — arguably the best shooter of all time — has qualified only once in his twelve seasons.

To throw another wet blanket on the fire, Clarkson’s career shooting splits are 45-35-82. Even last years improved numbers under Quin Snyder were 46-37-79. It’s not fair to expect this year’s accuracy numbers to hold, and he can still have a tremendous season on the whole with or without hitting those thresholds. But sure, if Clarkson joins that group, pop the corks and throw a well-deserved party.

What Kind of Player Should We Expect?

Coming back to earth, there’s reason for optimism. Clarkson is on track for a career year. Last season with the Jazz he averaged 15.6 ppg on 46-37-79 shooting. Even if he shoots last year’s averages for the remaining 59 games, his splits end up at 47-38-81 and 16 ppg. But this feels like a low bar, and the counting stats don’t tell the whole story. He can taken even more threes and work on getting to the free throw line. He has more experience with Snyder’s system, and continues to have his coach’s confidence.

If that confidence, along with role and shot selection stay on course, I’d wager he ends the year closer to 48-39-82 splits and at 16.5 ppg. Those are really good statistics for a 25 mpg player! Zoom out from individual numbers and look at his impact on the team. If Jordan sustains his smart shot selection and gravity, then Conley and Donovan Mitchell have more room to play with. The Joe Ingles-Derrick Favors pick-and-roll that Clarkson often plays with is more potent. An efficient game that bends opposing teams’ defense is good for the Jazz, not just Clarkson’s personal reputation.

Utah’s coaching staff deserves praise. They allowed Clarkson to be who he is, a freelancing scorer who can manufacture points on multiple levels. They gave him confidence and a green light. They also transformed his shot selection and found a way to balance his unusual playstyle with Utah’s regimented system (and yes, Clarkson could still stand to pass a little more). But give Jordan credit too. He bought in, and so far both he and the team are reaping dividends.

It’s also worth noting that Clarkson proved playable in the playoffs. We saw what happened to Harrell last postseason, with his minutes, shots and scoring all dropping from his regular season levels. In contrast, Jordan averaged 16.7 ppg, 3.4 rpg, and 2.1 apg with 57% TS in 28.6 mpg during the Jazz’s seven playoff games. This was a massive improvement from his 4.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg, and 0.7 apg with 35% TS in 15.1 mpg during his only other playoff run with the Cavs. His defense is never going to be his strength, but the eye test shows increased  effort this season. Concerns about playoff performance were put to rest last year. To make a deep playoff run, the Jazz will need him to remain an efficient volume producer off the bench.

Once a polarizing figure, Clarkson has made real progress on his game, and is on pace to live up to his new $50 million-plus contract.