Another Round of Jazz Q&A as Offseason Targets Come into Focus

Future teammates? (Nathaniel Butler via brooklynnets.com)

The draft and free agency are creeping closer, which means the operative questions in Jazz world are coming into focus. We’re also getting a better sense of which players might be truly available on July 1. For example, the noise out of Charlotte makes it sound like Kemba Walker is likely to stay put, while Brooklyn’s cap-clearing move might signal their plans to pursue a marquee free agent and take themselves out of the running for targets in whom the Jazz have interest.

So with those parameters taking shape, it’s time for another round of reader questions.

Which of the most realistic free agents the Jazz can get has the highest ceiling?

@clayson_searle

It’s a tricky question, because in this context “realistic” and “highest ceiling” kind of have an inverse relationship. By nature, the guys who would have the most impact on Utah’s trajectory as a franchise are going to be harder to get.

Case in point (and this will answer your question a little more directly): Riley Gisseman recently tweeted out some research about how the hypothetical acquisitions of Mike Conley, Kemba Walker, Tobias Harris and D’Angelo Russell would impact the title odds if added to a core of Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles. According to his numbers¹, Conley and Walker would take Utah’s championship odds to nearly 6%, but they are also the toughest guys to get. The next best odds came from ignoring this group altogether and keeping Derrick Favors, followed by a Russell acquisition and then Harris at a hair over 2%. So again, more realistic = less likely to change the ceiling in a meaningful way.

I find research like Riley’s to be an fascinating lens into the decision-making process, although the disclaimer on that is that building a contender is often more a chemistry experiment than an arithmetic problem. We tend to think about roster-building as being additive: Player X is worth this many wins, Player Y is worth that many… and then you add the cumulative impact and you either have a contender or you don’t. That’s a good place to start, but the Jazz’s brain trust will also consider roster constructions in ways that go beyond a “sum of its parts” assessment. What can certain guys unlock in each other? What can certain guys enable you to do differently from a system or X-and-O perspective? Definitely a priority will be adding a player who can accelerate Mitchell’s growth.

Percentage chance Utah lands the following: Harris, Walker, Russell, Malcolm Brogdon, Kris Middleton.

@pumpkinbandit

Similar question to Clayson’s, so let’s go ahead and answer that here. Walker was always a pipe dream, but his recent declarations of love for Charlotte have all but completely taken him off of my mental free agent board. Brooklyn is going to be Utah’s primary (but not only) competition for Russell and Harris, and their trade yesterday signals that they might have a preliminary commitment from someone big, which takes the likelihood that at least one of Russell/Harris is gettable up to 30 or 40% — assuming the Jazz want them. Middleton is another pipe dream, but a perfect on-paper fit. Milwaukee falling short of the finals with their tricky cap situation might entice them to get creative on personnel, but even if Middleton somehow became available in all that, Utah would still have a sub-5% chance of getting him. And I don’t get the feeling that Brogdon is a primary target because he’s not someone who takes them to another level all on his own. So that feels like an unlikely addition unless the Jazz strike out basically everywhere else and Brogdon is still hanging in the wind. 

While we spend so much time dissecting what FA target the Jazz *should* get, in the big picture view shouldn’t fans just be happy if they acquire ANY above average starter quality player that’s an improvement in a position of need?

@EJ_AyalaNBA

Totally fair point. If the Jazz sign anybody who is a proven starter still in his prime, then that guy instantly becomes the best free agent signing in franchise history, right? Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer were still up-and-coming guys when Utah signed them in 2004, and Joe Johnson was a short-term signing of a guy clearly on the downhill part of his career. So a long-term commitment from a high-level starter would jet right to the top of the list of FA acquisitions, and help to change the narrative that Utah is a non-destination for NBA guys.

If the Jazz can’t get a firm answer by Favors’ contract date will they automatically pick up his extension? Pros and cons of doing that? Pro: Favors as a trade piece during season. Con: lack of cap room for a big FA signing.

@LilBax

Yeah, that’s basically it, except that Favors’ guarantee date makes it so that the Jazz will essentially know if they’re going to need that cap space for a free agent before they have to make a final decision on Favors. So if no free agent has committed by then, I think it’s basically a no-brainer to hang onto Favors at the $17.7M. If July 6 arrives and they haven’t made a major signing and Favors is still on the team, I think it means that they’re working on a trade for someone like Conley.

Besides the Jazz, who are the best run front offices in the league? What makes them the best, and how can other not-so-good front offices start anew to work towards that?

@jazzfandanman

There are people out there who rank that kind of stuff, so I’m going to largely skirt the first part of your question. I mean, teams like the Spurs, Warriors, Heat and Celtics get a lot of recognition. The main basketball bosses in Portland and OKC are widely respected, but both franchises have also had missteps. There are a few things that the good ones all have in common.

1. They are principled. They have a defined way of looking at things and a values-based approach to personnel decisions. Think Gregg Popovich’s draft mantra of liking guys who “are over themselves.”
2. Role clarity, with empowered basketball people who are closely aligned in philosophy with the coaching staff. Meaning that ownership doesn’t get unnecessarily involved with the basketball side of things, but the FO and staff operate almost as one.
3. They look for different kinds of information and base decisions on a balanced view. For example, they are willing to invest in analytics programs that help challenge their thinking, but they don’t over-rely on them and instead make decisions based on a rich tapestry of insights from basketball people, data points, old-fashioned scouting and even some healthy gut work. (Remember, Gobert didn’t statistically rate as a top prospect, but won the Jazz over (and secured the endorsement of former coach Jerry Sloan) by displaying a pathologically competitive nature in his interview.)   

If Jazz strike out with Harris, what do you think of targeting a player like TJ Warren? Is he gettable? Better fit than Favors? What would it take to get him?

@MarshallDjm

Warren is under contract, so the Jazz would have to offer assets that the rebuilding Suns would value. Those are specifically the assets Utah is light on at this stage, although I suppose a package highlighted by a 1st round pick might get them interested if they add a scorer in free agency. That said, I’m not a big Warren guy. He’s not someone who takes the Jazz to the next level — which sounds crazy since he has average 18-plus for two straight seasons, but he rates as a replacement-level player in several advanced stats. He’s also not a very efficient scorer with the ball in his hands.

What does the year two to three jump look like for players comparable to Mitchell?

@zarinf

This should be every Jazz fan’s #1 question, since Utah’s ceiling in the short to medium term will likely have more to do with Mitchell’s growth than with any other single factor.

Dwyane Wade had a nice year-three leap in both counting stats and advanced metrics, and he wound up with a ring and a Finals MVP that season. Allen Iverson saw a major rise in scoring in his third season, but his efficiency got worse, and also that was a lockout season so the circumstances were atypical. Year three was a huge leap for Russell Westbrook, as he crossed the 20-ppg threshold in his first All-Star season. Michael Jordan went supernova in year three (37 ppg!!), but he’s not the best comp for Mitchell. James Harden and Clyde Drexler both got modestly better in year three, although both were still complementary stars at that stage in their career. (Side note: there isn’t a lot of precedent for someone at Mitchell’s age being the main guy on a good team.)

Thought experiment based on @Lockedonsports’s talk with @DavidDJJames: if you traded Gobert for an all-NBA caliber guard/wing like Bradley Beal, then kept Favors at center and signed a mid-tier FA forward, would you have a net talent increase?

@joel_hiller

First of all, Beal has never made All-NBA. He’s a very good player, top-30 for sure, but I’m not sure you could convince me that he impacts games more than Gobert does. Gobert is just so unique and dominant, and the Jazz have built their whole identity around him. So no, I think any trade where Rudy leaves is a bad trade for Utah (unless it returns a certified megastar). The path you’re describing would raise the talent level in one or two specific areas, but overall would give the Jazz a core that’s not that different from the version of the Wizards that got stuck in 45-win territory for five years.

Can it work under cap rules to acquire both Tobias and Goran Dragic? Either by trading Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver and No. 23 for Dragic on draft day before signing Harris, or by sequencing the trade afterwards, during free agency? 

@iPrinceJester

Crowder-Korver-23 for Dragic isn’t legal on draft night, unless Dragic opts in early AND Utah gets Korver to agree to amend his contract by then to guarantee more of his salary. So in all likelihood, this would be a deal that would go down after Korver becomes guaranteed (July 7). But yeah, that scenario is legal. Waive Favors, rescind the three veteran free agents, and you have enough cap space to sign Tobias, then do the trade you proposed with a fully guaranteed Korver. Now, the question is would the Heat want those pieces in exchange for Dragic? The Jazz would then have Dragic-Mitchell-Joe Ingles-Harris-Gobert as starters with a bench of Dante Exum, Raul Neto, Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, Georges Niang, Tony Bradley and whomever they could sign with the Room exception and minimum deals. That’s not a very deep team, so they’d have to decide how good that starting lineup is.

What’s the more likely scenario:
-Jazz waive Favors and sign a big money FA (Harris, Kemba, Russell, etc.)
-Jazz waive Favors and sign 2+ mid-money FAs (Darren Collison, Al-Farouq Aminu, Danny Green, etc.)
-Jazz keep Favors and sign 1+ mid/low-money FAs (Collison, Pat Beverley, Thabo Sefolosha, etc.)

@shumekot

Everything I’ve heard is that their plan is to add a big money FA, either by waiving Favors or by offloading some salary elsewhere. But it all depends on if any of those guys say yes to them. That’s not really an answer to your question, but that’s just the reality. The Jazz are going to try to tell their story to some star-level players, and then they’ll work their way down the list.

How do draft pick contracts/holds work towards the cap during the summer?

@jazzies12

As soon as the Jazz use the No. 23 pick to select a player, a salary hold will go on their cap sheet for 120% of the “scale” amount for that pick, or about $2.3M. As soon as the draftee signs a contract, his actual salary amount replaces that cap hold, but since draftees basically always sign for the 120% figure, it won’t make any difference. Just slot $2.3M for the Jazz’s pick, unless they trade it.

(Minutia for the nerds: the Jazz sign draftees for the 120% amount like every other team, but they generally like to have some portion of the rookie’s salary tied to incentives for things like participation in development programs. Since those types of incentives are always termed as “likely,” it doesn’t affect the cap hold, but technically requires players to check some boxes to earn the full amount. This is why it took forever for the Jazz to sign Trey Lyles back in 2015; as a lottery talent, Lyles didn’t want to have his salary be conditional, but the Jazz insisted that he agree to participate in certain development activities.)

Should the Jazz go over the cap? How does the luxury tax work? Can they pay their top three guys (Gobert, Mitchell and whoever the third guy is)?

@CurtisHulet

The salary cap is not really a cap at all. It’s just a line that determines what avenues are available to teams as they try to add players from outside the organization: cap space or exception. Being over the cap doesn’t mean you’re done spending, as there are enough exceptions available to teams that they can easily stay competitive even after going over. The cap will never preclude a team from retaining its own free agents². The luxury tax is just meant to deter teams from spending like crazy by applying a charge to all salary past a certain level. And teams that are past the luxury tax threshold by a certain amount also have more stringent limits on the exceptions they can use to add players via trade or free agency.

Short version: Jazz will be able to keep their talent, but the salary commitments that will kick in once Mitchell gets his extension are exactly why they are trying to strike now to add an impact player. 

If you could have your pick of Tobias or D’Lo who would you take and why? Is Brogdon even going to be an option or will the Bucks match any offer?

@awesomdestroyer

Both guys have their liabilities. Russell is a really inefficient player who frequently makes questionable decisions. He’s dynamic and has a high ceiling, but the same fans who got frustrated every time Crowder pulled up early in the shot clock or when Ricky Rubio turned the ball over on a gutsy pass might get heartburn from some of Russell’s decisions. And Harris is interesting and a great positional fit, but most guys who are that good don’t get moved to five different teams in their first eight years, so that’s a watch-out. Personally, I’d take Harris. It makes me pretty nervous to pair Russell and Mitchell, two high-usage guards who are still learning how to value possessions and make sound decisions, as the primary offensive engines.

There are scenarios where I could see the Bucks declining to match, but I’m not sure Brogdon is a prime target. This could be Utah’s last chance to add a true difference-maker, so if you’re going to use that opportunity up on Brogdon, you have to really believe he’s got a couple levels of growth still in him.

What are the chances the Jazz make a move on draft night?

@JazzNationBr

History would indicate that the chances of SOME kind of deal are pretty high, right? The Jazz have made some kind of draft-adjacent move every year during Dennis Lindsey’s tenure so far. Granted, some years it was just moving around in the second round or selling a pick, but Lindsey has historically not been the kind of executive who just waits for his turn on draft night and then calls the commish with a name. And this year, they might pounce on an opportunity to restructure their cap sheet heading into free agency, particularly if they have gotten any early indications from someone they like. 

How many new faces should we expect by the trade deadline next season??

@Gustavo44954827

There’s a good chance that something like a third to a half of the rotation is made up of new players next year. Expect Mitchell, Gobert and Ingles back for sure. O’Neale too, and I get the sense they won’t include Exum in a deal unless they absolutely have to. Niang is unlikely to move because they like him and he’s a low-cost guy with team control for two more years. Outside of that, I don’t feel comfortable guaranteeing anything. Crowder? Probably back, but who knows. Favors? 50-50. Rubio? Probably not. Korver? We’ll see. This could be a summer that defines Jazz basketball for the next decade.

Who are some centers the Jazz could target in free agency to replace Ekpe Udoh. Do you think Raul Neto is back next year or will they look to upgrade?

@newbymiles89

Dwayne Dedmon gets a lot of chatter from Jazz fans because he can both block and make shots, but I think he’ll be out of Utah’s price range after they use up their cap space. In all likelihood, they’ll have to find Gobert a backup using the minimum salary exception, which means they’re looking at guys like Daniel Theis, Salah Mejri, Ivan Rabb, Amir Johnson or Thomas Bryant… in other words: Gobert had better stay healthy.

Neto is a solid third point guard whose salary ($2.15M non-guaranteed) matches his role. I think he’ll be back unless they need to clear a little bit of extra room by waiving him. Even then, I think he would be open to re-signing at the minimum if another team doesn’t claim him off waivers first.

That’s it for this batch. More to come!