Answering questions about Utah’s recent moves

Collins’ arrival answers — and creates — questions for the retooling Jazz. (Rick Bowmer via sltrib.com)

With free agency only double digits hours away, things are happening in Jazzland almost faster than we can respond to them. Just in the last week:

• The Jazz drafted Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George, and Brice Sensabaugh;
• Then traded Rudy Gay and a second-round pick for John Collins; and
• Talen Horton-Tucker opted in to the final year of his contract at over $11 million.

As the dust settles on those pieces of news (and before the avalanche of free agency takes over), let’s take a look about what Utah’s recent flurry of transactions means.

What role will the rookies play?

What we know: Will Hardy does not give rookies minutes until they are earned. Rookie of the Year award finalist Walker Kessler didn’t start until midway through the season, and former lottery pick Ochai Agbaji had more than 20 nights he didn’t step on the floor.

Best guess: No. 9 selection Hendricks likely plays the biggest role in the coming season — not due to his draft position (reportedly the Jazz considered taking George with the same pick), but because his skillset is easy to plug and play. Hendricks’ defense and three-point shooting should be immediately useful. I wouldn’t pencil him as a game one starter, especially with the addition of Collins. But I suspect he’ll be a key rotation player and may even challenge for a starting position at some point.

George and Sensabaugh may not be in the immediate rotation. The former will need to shift from shooting to point guard, and that’s notoriously tough for rookies to pick up. The latter will need to show that he can defend at an NBA level. That said, both possess elite offense skills that will earn them opportunities. Just be patient with their playing time.

What impact will John Collins make?

What we know: There are different ways to view Collins. The negative view is that he’s seen a statistical decline and reduced role in the last two years. He’s suffered a finger injury (Google if you dare) that coincided with a shooting slump. His 2022-23 production does not match his $25 million salary. The positive view is that Collins a very athletic, 6-9 wing, who can contribute on both sides of the floor. He’s just a few years removed from 20-10 production. And even his worst season from an efficiency standpoint was still well above league average (.593 true shooting).

Best guess: There’s a lot of variance to how Collins could impact the Jazz. There are a lot of reasons to be hopeful — perhaps a healed finger will bring his 3-point shooting back to the 35-40% range; maybe Hardy unlocks Collins in new ways; or maybe the simple change of scenery invigorates a leap. After all, we saw what happened with Lauri Markkanen once he got into a new environment. We shouldn’t put those expectations on Collins, though. There’s a chance the fit between Markkanen and Kessler takes some finessing. There’s also a good chance Collins produces similarly to his past few seasons. And that’s fine — 16 points, 8 rebounds, above average efficiency, and good defensive effort should help the Jazz win more games. 

Who will play point guard?

What we know: Who plays starting point guard is Utah’s biggest roster question. There are a few options.

Horton-Tucker, Collin Sexton, and George are all shooting guards who ideally can shift to point guards to make up for other weaknesses (lack of shooting, size, and size respectively). We’ll see how they develop as table setters this coming season.

Kris Dunn was frankly awesome relative to expectations last season. He is the “purest” point guard on the current roster, in the traditional sense. He may be better suited as a bench guard, but he could be a good option as a temporary starter. We’ll see how his surprising shooting numbers hold up, as his improvement in that area was a big reason for his successful year.

Best guess: The starting point guard may not be on the roster yet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jazz target a point guard in free agency or in the trade market. Ideally a player that fits Utah’s timeline and can hold down the fort as a starter but also gracefully transition to the bench if one of the younger options is ready to take over.

Another path is that the Jazz make “push in the chips” trade for a star-level point guard. The issue is that those sort of stars need to first be made available. I wouldn’t count on the Jazz getting their “number one guy” type player until the opportunity is right.

What sort of free agents should the Jazz target?

What we know: We can parse out Jazz preferences from moves made so far and press conference soundbites. We’ve heard the Jazz brass mention the importance of positional size and shooting, and saw that manifest in their draft selections and the Collins deal. The Collins move also leads us to guess that the Jazz would like to be competitive next season, and indeed Tony Jones of The Athletic has reported that the Jazz would prefer that their 2024 first-round pick owed to Oklahoma City conveys next draft, meaning the Jazz would need to finish outside the bottom 10.

We also look at Utah’s positional depth. With Collins, Markkanen, Kessler, Hendricks — and presumably Kelly Olynyk, whose contract guarantee we should know more about imminently — the front court is pretty well locked in. The shooting guard position is fairly full as well, with Agbaji, Sexton, Horton-Tucker, and Sensabaugh as options there, as well as Jordan Clarkson, who may or may not return. The Jazz might look for a point guard as mentioned above, or a backup small forward.

Best guess: There are other factors in play. For example, it makes sense that the Jazz would prioritize players that match their timeline. But what does that mean exactly? Does it mean every acquired player should be in their thirties? How does that balance with the goal of being competitive next season?

There’s also the question of whether Utah is looking for more ready-to-play rotation players, reclamation swings, second-draft opportunities, restricted free agent bids, or more salary dumps in exchange for assets. Honestly, there are a myriad of routes the Jazz could go here, and making a guess is very difficult.

If I had to make a guess, I think the Jazz see if they can acquire one of Washington’s veteran point guards in Monte Morris or Delon Wright. The Jazz roster is set well enough they could also afford the risk of making an offer for a restricted free agent. For example, LA’s Austin Reaves is only 25 years old and has a 3-and-D skillset that every team covets, despite playing Utah’s most loaded position. And if LA matches the offer sheet (which they reportedly are willing to do), it gives the Lakers some tricky cap problems to deal with a year before they owe Utah their first-round pick.

Since the Jazz moved on from Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell last summer, the theme of the new era is optionality — and the Jazz still have that. They’re building a team with flexible lineups, open cap space, and hoarded assets ready to cash in at the right moment. We’ll see what moves they make in the coming days, but they are positioned to make moves opportunistically rather than reactively, and that’s a welcome change.