As Rubio Lineups Continue to Struggle, the Guard Remains a Focal Point

NBAE via utahjazz.com

While most of Jazz Nation is wondering if Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors can coexist, the question may actually be better phrased around guard Ricky Rubio.

With Rubio navigating the ship and both bigs anchoring down low, the Jazz are simply unable to keep up with the current. Early in the season, it looked like Rubio’s marriage with the Jazz would be smooth sailing. Rubio initially led the team in points and surprised the NBA world by knocking down 16 threes in his first eight Jazz games. However, the regression soon caught up and left lineups with multiple non-shooters raging and thrusting down a swift current, out of control and unsustainable.

In a rather large sample size — the three have now played over 200 minutes together — the trio gets outscored by the widest margin of any of Utah’s most used three-man combinations. Of the nine common trios that net a positive point differential, Rubio is part of only one, alongside rookie Donovan Mitchell and stretch forward Jonas Jerebko. By contrast, Rubio appears in nine of the 12 common three-man lineups that are negative overall.

Ricky Rubio’s first eight games: 17.5 PTS, 6.5 AST, 4.9 REB, 2.1 STL, 43.7 FG%, 37.2 3P%

Ricky Rubio’s last six games: 8.5 PTS, 4.3 AST, 2.3 REB, 1.7 STL, 25 FG%, 4.3 3P%

— Andy Bailey (@AndrewDBailey) November 16, 2017

I’m not quite there yet, but Rubio is certainly struggling (still battling injury woes?). Hard to ignore his career-lows in AST% (26.9), PER (13.1) and WS?48 (.064) with career-highs in 3PAr (.398) and USG% (23.2). https://t.co/zkg9bRWJcz

— David J. Smith (@davidjsmith1232) December 7, 2017

Notice what David points out: assist percentage is the lowest of his career, even though he has a lob partner down low and shooters on the outside. On top of that, PER which measures all his stats combined into one number is currently 13.1, where the baseline, average player PER is set for 15.0. David is also showing that Rubio is shooting more three-pointers than ever before (but at a very low percentage) and controls the ball and offense more than ever before in his Usage Percentage.

Compared to The Other Point Guards

A common sentiment being shared is that perhaps it’s time to bring Rubio off the bench. Many fans are clamoring for Mitchell to run the point, as the Jazz are a +25 with him, Favors, and Gobert playing together. If Mitchell is to become Damian Lillard 2.0, he’ll need to handle the ball and become the offensive leader. In due time, Mitchell will become the floor general.

Another point guard on the roster that could surpass Rubio is Raul Neto.

I am not totally convinced Ricky Rubio is better than Raul Neto at basketball right now.

— Andy Bailey (@AndrewDBailey) December 5, 2017

According to the numbers, an argument can be made. First, take a look at their respective per-36 numbers.

Not only would Neto provide similar assist and point numbers, his turnovers would be less and 3-point percentage, naturally, higher. Defense is Ricky’s specialty so there would be a drop off there (see the steals average above) as Rubio’s defensive rating is 103 and Neto’s is currently 107. However, Neto’s Offensive Rating is off the charts – 111 – while Mitchell is at 101 and Rubio 97.

The advanced stats make a point, too. Notice Rubio is lowest amongst his peers in PER, True Shooting Percentage and Win Shares Per 48 minutes, but highest in Turnover Percentage, which isn’t ideal when combined with his Usage Rate.

Point Guard Revolving Door

Since Deron Williams left in 2010, the Jazz have had the following as starting point guards:

• Devin Harris
• Earl Watson
• Jamaal Tinsley
• Mo Williams
• Trey Burke
• John Lucas III
• Dante Exum
• Shelvin Mack
• Neto
• George Hill
• Rubio

That’s 11 names in six years, basically a new starter every half season or so. The Jazz didn’t send a 2018 first-round pick (lottery protected, via OKC) for Rubio just so they could engage in Neto or Rubio debates. They didn’t let Hill walk and trade for Rubio just so that two months into the season Jazz twitter could start up the Trade Machine to entertain swapping the two.  They didn’t trade a valuable asset, a decent draft pick, for another PG to be listed in their revolving door.

Instead, the Jazz envisioned Rubio’s wizardry as a ball-handler and passer to complement Gordon Hayward and take some pressure off his shoulders. The plan changed quickly with Hayward’s departure, but many were still expecting Rubio to thrive as the pass-first point guard the Jazz needed. He could run the offense, set up easy shots for Rodney Hood, throw up lobs to Gobert, and be a stickler and hustler on defense. He was young, fit the Jazz schedule, timeline, and identity, and had a favorable contract that would keep him Utah for awhile to help them compete. It seemed to be a good fit.

Right now, it’s not.

When’s the last time you felt like Ricky Rubio REALLY made the Jazz a better team? Still the 30-point game on Nov 1? Since then, he’s averaging 9.6 PTS & 4 AST, w/ a .461 TS%. He’s been better in the last three games, but it’s still tough to see a positive impact.

— Andy Bailey (@AndrewDBailey) November 29, 2017

He still has time to figure it out. The Jazz front office is probably concerned, but they are also rational and will give Rubio time to adjust to his new teammates and new role. For Jazz fans, on the other hand, that same patience is running out.