Big Wings Who Defend, Shoot Are In Short Supply

A precious few wings in the NBA are good at guarding the ball AND making shots.

It seems simple enough for the Jazz as they head toward August’s free agency period: after struggling to stay in front of Clipper ball handlers in a second-round playoff collapse, they merely need to add a ball-stopper with size. They’d obviously also prefer that said big wing stopper come in the form of a capable shooter who doesn’t compromise the club’s spacing or prolific shooting outcomes at the other end. That’s all, right?

Easier said than done. As 30 general managers know all too well, that specficic player prototype — a big wing who can shoot and defend — is in short supply in today’s NBA talent marketplace. Not many guys out there have the size, mobility and defensive chops to pester the league’s many dynamic ball handlers, and fewer still if you make solid 3-point shooting a prerequisite.

But some are out there, so let’s find them.

A capable on-ball defender will likely grade well on play types where the scorer has the ball in his hands — specifically, on possessions used by an iso scorer or pick-and-roll ball handler. Those aren’t the only play types that matter for modern perimeter defenders, but they will tell us who can impact a guy who has the ball and is hunting a shot. Play type data isn’t without its flaws, but if someone is at least average on both of those, that should point to some basic 0n-ball defensive ability.

The ideal target should also be a plus defender in overall terms. There is no perfect way to measure that, but since FiveThirtyEight makes D-RAPTOR data fairly easy to play with, we’ll start there.

And at bare minimum, it needs to be someone who won’t gum up the offense by giving opposing teams a player they can leave unattended. That means it needs to be a player who can at least hit catch-and-shoot threes generated by Quin Snyder’s offense.

So, our four criteria for this exercise:

• At least in the 50th percentile at guarding both iso scorers and P&R ball handlers at the end of the possession.
• A positive D-RAPTOR.
• At least 35% on a decent sample¹ of catch-and-shoot 3-pointers.

Only 26 NBA players met all of those criteria this past season. Three of them were already employed by the Jazz — and you may be surprised which three.

Only nine of the 26 are set to be free agents this offseason, and only four of those are wings at 6-foot-6 or bigger.

Free Agents Meeting the Criteria

Let’s start with the wings, in alphabetical order:

Trevor Ariza

82nd %ile vs. isos / 97th vs. P&R handler / 37% C&S 3pt / +2.78 D-RAPTOR

Ariza has played for a third of the league’s teams in his 16 seasons, but somehow is holding up pretty decently even at 36. His per-game and per-minute numbers were mostly right in line with his career norms during an abbreviated season with Miami. Can he still deliver those outcomes across 82 games? He’s coming off a $12.8M season, but his range at this point is probably exception money or even the veteran minimum on certain teams.

Rudy Gay

84th %ile vs. isos / 72nd vs. P&R handler / 40% C&S 3pt / +3.32 D-RAPTOR

Gay joins Ariza in the “mid-30s vets who are still better than most people realize” category. His minutes are way down, but the impact is still there, even if the 14-year veteran has only ever participated in three playoff series. He’s coming off of a $14 million season, but will likely sign for exception money (or maybe even the veteran minimum) going forward.

Danny Green

62th %ile vs. isos / 70th vs. P&R handler / 42% C&S 3pt / +2.08 D-RAPTOR

Green has won three titles (each with a different team) because he’s the perfect plug-and-play starter on a team that already has creators and just needs a plus defender whom opponents can’t leave open. At 34, he’s still playing starter minutes, which may put him in a slightly higher tier salary-wise than the similarly aged Gay and Ariza. He’s coming off $15.3M, and likely won’t have to settle for less than mid-level exception money unless he prioritizes the competitive situation over pay.

Georges Niang

82nd %ile vs. isos / 51st vs. P&R handler / 44% C&S 3pt / +0.44 D-RAPTOR

How many people would have guessed that Niang was one of Utah’s three players to hit these four stat thresholds? Sure, he only barely hit the minimums for P&R handler defense and overall defense, but the point here is that Niang might be more impactful than a casual fan realizes. While not particularly athletic in the traditional sense of the word, he does have good size at 6-foot-7. No, he’s not an on-ball stopper, but when ball handlers do try to go at him, he can often hold his own or at least leverage the team scheme to help himself. He’s coming off a minimum salary deal, but might get a piece of an exception from someone. (The Jazz can go past the minimum to keep him without using their MLE/BAE because they hold his Bird rights.)

Now let’s check out the guards and bigs who also met all four benchmarks.

Mike Conley Jr.

98th %ile vs. isos / 72nd vs. P&R handler / 41% C&S 3pt / +2.97 D-RAPTOR

At 6-foot-1, Conley doesn’t necessarily bottle up ball handlers across all positions. But the fact that he’s on this list underscores just how devastating it would be for the Jazz to lose him. In addition to all he does as a creator and defense-solver, he’s also one of the best on-ball defenders on the team, even at his size.

Jordan McLaughlin (restricted)

88th %ile vs. isos / 63rd vs. P&R handler / 41% C&S 3pt / +0.16 D-RAPTOR

We’ll keep the tiny guard here for the sake of completeness, but at 5-foot-11, McLaughlin is going to be at a size disadvantage anytime he’s asked to guard anybody other than the opposing point guard. Still, credit him for acquitting himself well after earning backup PG minutes on a two-way contract.

Cameron Payne

84th %ile vs. isos / 66th vs. P&R handler / 49% C&S 3pt / +1.04 D-RAPTOR

Payne is another small guard, but his stock has risen sharply after his first season as a rotation regular on a good team. He’s coming off a minimum deal, and Phoenix only has “Early Bird” rights, so a team could attempt to poach him away and see what he could do in an expanded role. He’s not the answer for Utah as a big lockdown wing, but the Jazz could also use another ball handling guard at the right price.

Bobby Portis (PO)

57th %ile vs. isos / 61st vs. P&R handler (tiny sample) / 47% C&S 3pt / +1.08 D-RAPTOR

Portis will likely decline a $3.8 million player option, so it feels appropriate to list him here with the free agents. His improvement at guarding the ball makes him worth mentioning. He’s also just 26. But after spending a ton of resources last offseason to shore up big man depth, I’m not sure if it’s wise for the Jazz to use their only exception on a guy who played 80% of his minutes at center last year, unless they really feel he can guard on the ball more regularly. 

Derrick Rose

64th %ile vs. isos / 79th vs. P&R handler / 41% C&S 3pt / +1.49 D-RAPTOR

Another guard, and frankly another surprising name. But Rose is too small to be classified as a wing stopper, and he’s unlikely to land in Utah anyway. 

Trade Targets?

That leaves 17 others who met our 3-and-D critiera but aren’t free agents. The Jazz could sniff around their availability via trade, but stars like LeBron James and Julius Randle will certainly be off limits. Same goes for the recently traded Aaron Gordon and for Fred VanVleet, who appears poised to take over full-time PG duties in Toronto. It was surprising to see Andrew Wiggins and Kemba Walker — not usually thought of as stoppers — make the cut, but the Jazz don’t have a realistic way to acquire their $30 million-plus contracts anyway.

That leaves 11, but one of those is a player the Jazz can’t trade for — because they already employ him. Joe Ingles is the third Jazz man to appear on this elite 3-and-D list. And sure, we all saw Ingles look a bit more mortal in the playoffs, perhaps the result of carrying such a large load while Utah dealt with multiple guard injuries throughout April and May. But just know that the Jazz already have a 6-foot-8 wing who can guard ball handlers and shoot.

Ten left, in alphabetical order:

Grayson Allen ($4.1M)

It was a bit surprising to find the 2018 Jazz draftee on this list, and honestly he was barely positive in D-Raptor (+0.02). Even if he were on firmer ground, the 6-foot-4 guard probably doesn’t quite fit the bill from a size perspective, and it’s hard to imagine the Jazz reacquiring him anyway.

Patrick Beverley ($14.3M)

PatBev fancies himself a multi-positional stopper, but at 6-foot-1 he’s mostly successful at hounding guards, not wings. He’s also 33 and missed half the season with injuries. The Clippers would probably consider moving him, but his salary would require the Jazz to give up a real piece.

Chris Boucher ($7M non-guaranteed)

We highlighted Boucher last offseason as a guy with some upside, and he didn’t disappoint in his first crack at being a rotation player. He has some stretch capabilities as a big but also protects the rim, and his presence on this list means he can also hold his own when guarding the ball in space (small sample, though). But for all those reasons, the Raps will likely hang on and see what they’ve got. 

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($13M)

KCP is commonly thrown into trade machine deals when people start imagining how the Lakers could pry Conley away from the Jazz in a sign-and-trade transaction. Utah could do a lot worse if Conley decides to leave. Caldwell-Pope is only 6-foot-5, but has a history of guarding some of the league’s best wing creators.

Justin Holiday ($6M)

Holiday was the player I kept mentioning last offseason in the event that the Jazz decided to use their larger exception on a defensive wing and then fill the backup center role with a cheaper option. Instead, they used the full MLE on Derrick Favors and that took them out of the Holiday running, but the latter is right back here on the list of 3-and-D specialists. He’s 6-foot-6, although somewhat slight of build to be wrestling with Kawhi/LeBron types full-time. It’s also hard to say whether Indy’s expected retool may make him available.

Maxi Kleber ($8.8M)

Kleber is really interesting, because people tend to mostly think of him as a stretch big (he’s 6-foot-10), but he has become one of the Mavs’ better on-ball defenders against bigger wings. He had mixed results as Kawhi’s primary defender in the first round, but the fact that the Mavs gave him that assignment at all is a sign of some defensive abilities. He was in the 90th percentile at limiting P&R ball handlers who tried to use the possession against him. That said, I’m not sure why Dallas would move him.

Chuma Okeke ($3.3M)

Okeke made the list as a rookie, which is impressive. It’s also why the rebuilding Magic would be wise to hang on and see what the 6-foot-6 combo forward turns into.

Yuta Watanabe ($1.8M NG)

Could be mildly interesting. Watanabe is a wiry 6-foot-9 and has only been a fringe rotation player up to this point. A contender definitely shouldn’t be thinking he’ll be the answer as a designated LeBron-stopper overnight. And yet, pick-and-roll handlers only score 0.54 points per possession against him. Maybe if Toronto is selling (or if they release him prior to his guarantee date) he could be an interesting project.

Grant Williams ($2.6M)

Williams mostly played the four for Boston, but at 6-foot-6 he could reasonably look after certain wings. Like Watanabe, he’s better in P&R contexts (91st percentile) than against iso handlers, and he barely made the D-RAPTOR cut (+0.18).

Delon Wright ($8.5M)

The former Utah collegiate star is only barely above average at guarding the ball in P&R, but is an iso stopper with a great percentage off the catch (44%). Depending on what happens with Conley’s free agency, they could keep an eye on the 6-foot-5 combo guard as an option to add some creation while also bolstering the perimeter D. If Conley stays, he doesn’t make as much sense for Utah.

It is hard to tell what’s realistic in that group of potential trade targets. But it’s worth knowing who out there fits the description of an on-ball defender with shooting abilities, in case someone can be shaken loose at some point in the offseason.

Almost There

These statistical parameters are obviously somewhat arbitrary and imperfect. There are good players who might have missed the cut somewhere, so let’s take a look at what happens if we relax each of the four criteria.

Negative D-RAPTOR

Even the best all-in defensive metrics are noisy, so if a player has good numbers in certain specific contexts and can also shoot, the Jazz might not get hung up on a sub-zero D-RAPTOR figure. Free agent wings like Evan Fournier and Reggie Bullock might be worth a look. Both are 6-foot-7 veterans around their prime (28 and 30, respectively). Bullock offers a bit more on defense, but Fournier can handle the ball and create.

Guards Jeff Teague, Lou Williams and Malik Monk (restricted) all missed on D-RAPTOR while hitting the other three criteria, as did big man Trey Lyles, although a reunion there seems unlikely.

Wings under contract in this category include Oshae Brissett ($1.7M NG), Jeremy Lamb ($10.5M), Jalen McDaniels ($1.8M NG) and Paul Watson ($1.7M NG). The rest are stars likely out of Utah’s reach: Jerami Grant, Gordon Hayward, Brandon Ingram, Michael Porter Jr. and Jayson Tatum.

Below average guarding on one of the play types

The most interesting name here is Victor Oladipo, whose all-league and all-defense career was thrown off course by a series of injuries. He was one of the very worst defenders against P&R ball handlers last season, but if a team thinks they could get him back to something even close to his 2-time All-Star level, Oladipo is unrestricted. Fellow free agents Alec Burks, Semi Ojeleye and Alex Caruso are smaller wings, but all of them just barely missed the P&R threshold while meeting the other three.

Free agent-to-be Abdel Nader missed the isolation D threshold (32nd percentile) while making the other three marks, but at 6-foot-5 he’s another mid-sized wing.

Raul Neto, Ish Smith and Devonte’ Graham (restricted) are small guards who were below average guarding P&R ball handlers at the end of the play. Dennis Schroder is below average guarding isos, while Frank Ntilikina didn’t guard enough iso possessions to qualify.

There are plenty of wings under contract who met the mark on catch-and-shoot 3s, are net positives on defense per D-RAPTOR, and are above average on ONE of the two play types in question. Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3.3M), Bogdan Bogdanovic ($18M), Mikal Bridges ($5.6M), Pat Connaughton ($5.3M), Jae Crowder ($9.7M), Kevin Huerter ($4.3M), and Naji Marshall ($1.5M) were below average on isos, while OG Anunoby ($16M), Dillon Brooks ($12.2M), Lu Dort ($1.7M), Dorian Finney-Smith ($4M), Juan Toscano-Anderson ($1.7M) and Kenrich Williams ($2M NG) missed the mark against P&R handlers.

(That’s without counting All-Stars like Leonard, Khris Middleton or Kevin Durant, who aren’t really gettable.)

PJ Washington ($4.2M) and Larry Nance ($10.7M) are technically fours (or even small-ball fives), but both are 6-foot-7 forwards who made the grade on catch-and-shoots and have some defensive prowess in space, too.

Catch-and-shoot 3s under 35%

Or maybe the Jazz choose to go the Royce O’Neale route: find a player with the requisite defensive chops and work on the shot over time.

If they do, the 6-foot-5 David Nwaba and the 6-foot-9 Jarred Vanderbilt (restricted) are possibilities The former has had good shooting seasons in the past, while Vanderbilt rarely takes (let alone makes) anything outside the paint. Garrett Temple is 6-foot-6, but at age 35 it’s unlikely he develops much more as a shooter.

Guard TJ McConnell and center Richaun Holmes are also free agents who missed the catch-and-shoot criterion but hit the other three.

Some wings who are under contract and fit that criteria: Al-Farouq Aminu ($10.2M), Kyle Anderson ($9.9M), Jarrett Culver ($6.4M), De’Andre Hunter ($7.8M), Cody Martin ($1.8M NG) and Matysse Thybulle ($2.8M).

The rest

A few random thoughts as I scanned the list of other free agents who missed the threshold in more than one area:

• Everybody loves to talk about how Nic Batum might have fit, but he is way below average guarding the ball at this point: 11th percentile guarding isos, 30th against P&R handlers. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent, at 32.
• Bruce Brown (restricted) shot ununusually low on catch-and-shoot threes this year, and just missed the cut on P&R defense (42nd %ile). Maybe the Jazz trust the larger sample with Brown, although he’s only 6-foot-4.
• Wesley Matthews only missed the shooting threshold by a few tenths of a percentage point, and he’s decent enough at the other threshold he missed (41st %ile P&R defense). But the free agent to be will be 35 soon and just posted careeer lows across the board.
• I shot down the idea of James Ennis III last summer based on a shaky shot, but he shot 47.5% on catch-and-shoot threes this past season. He is also barely below average at both of our pet play types on defense.
• Doug McDermott is a popular name right now, but he had one of the worst D-RAPTORS in basketball last season. 
• Kelly Oubre Jr. was better on P&R defense than I would have thought (73rd percentile), but his shot really abandoned him this season (33.5% catch & shoot), and the Warriors were better when he wasn’t playing.
• Known defensive ace Gary Trent Jr. (restricted) was somewhat surprisingly one of the worst P&R ball defenders in the league this season.
• Denzel Valentine remains great on the ball defensively (96th and 84th %ile in our two pet play types), but doesn’t add a lot of size at 6’4″ and remains an unconvincing shooter.
• Spencer Dinwiddie only played three games, so his 2020-21 stats don’t mean much. Over time, he’s been a decent guard defender and someone who can shoot and create.  The problem here: it sounds like he has pretty sky-high salary expectations.
• Free agent and former Jazz lotto pick Dante Exum once again bottled up pick-and-roll ball handlers this past season (99th %ile in brief action before his latest injury), but that 11% catch-and-shoot number is so bad it looks like a typo. (Only nine attempts, but still.)
• Same goes for Justise Winslow’s 19% off the catch. Yikes. He just missed the P&R D threshold, but is great at stopping guys in isolation and has a good overall D-RAPTOR. He’ll likely have his $13M team option declined.

Now a couple more under-contract wings worth checking in on:

• Harrison Barnes was barely negative on D-Raptor (-0.12) and barely missed the cut on P&R defense (47th %ile), but if there were a way to acquire his $20.3M salary without parting with a core piece, he seems to match a lot of what Utah is looking for in terms of size, athleticism and an ability to create his own shot.
• Brandon Clarke has made this list before, but he had a bad year from three and a really bad year guarding the ball in pick-and-roll. After mostly disappearing from Memphis’ rotation, there’s a chance the 6-foot-8 forward could be available via trade at $2.7M.