Calm Before the Storm? Jazz Still Have Options After a Quiet Draft Night

Draft week passed without a Jazz move, but could an impact veteran like Bojan Bogdanovic or Mike Conley Jr. still be dealt? (Star Tribune)

The Jazz were unexpectedly quiet coming out of draft week. They ended the night without a drafted player for the first time in 30 years, and for the first time in 10 years they made no draft-adjacent trade. This may seem perplexing for a team primed for a roster shakeup. Draft day often brings a flurry of trade activity, and the rumor mill is running overtime with Jazz-related content. So why the quiet night?

One reaction might be a hands-in-the-air exasperation of: “Why aren’t the Jazz doing anything?!” But there are clues as to why. Let’s follow the bread crumbs to possible answers.

1) Why didn’t the Jazz trade into the first-round?

First, let’s look at the organization’s philosophical direction. We’ve heard the Jazz want to compete next season — they’re not blowing things up. The lack of draft night moves confirms that. If the Jazz really wanted to add a first-round talent, they could’ve done so. But any move returning a first-round pick likely requires a core player, and such a trade leads in the opposite direction from contention. So no moves into the first round could be a sign the Jazz are serious about staying in the race.

Contenders are always looking to improve, but the Jazz lack assets to make a big talent upgrade. They can retool laterally or make high-risk, high-reward moves. After all, their core is just a year removed from the league’s best record. A reshuffle and some lucky breaks could put them right back at the top.

While the ultimate goal of winning a title remains, they may not feel the need to push every chip in the center, like a LeBron-led contender would. They could still trade every possible first-round pick as well as pick swaps if they really wanted to mortgage their future. By not doing so, they preserve some options in case they decide to pivot later toward a more future-centric approach. For example, almost any trade scenario involving Rudy Gobert would result in the Jazz sending out the best player in the deal and almost assuredly taking a step back. Or even if they try to reunite Gobert with Donovan Mitchell and make changes to the core around them, if it doesn’t work, they could be forced to change gears at some point down the line. 

The nuanced take is that, with the right assets in hand, the Jazz can hope to contend in the short term while still protecting their options later. And in some scenarios, the Jazz could make moves that result in fewer regular season wins but put them in a stronger position to content. It also doesn’t have to be a contend-or-tank dichotomy, as much as mediocrity is a scary prospect in this league. The Jazz have more than enough talent now to swim well past that threshold — at least while Gobert and Mitchell are on the team.

So — while no move into the first-round was not interesting, it also wasn’t surprising. A middling pick in what most experts see as a weak draft probably wouldn’t have changed Utah’s competitive reality in the short or long term. Perhaps it could have been used as ammo for another deal, but given the lack of overall trade activity among the 29 other teams, it’s safe to presume those options weren’t really there, either.

2) Why didn’t the Jazz trade into the second-round?

The Jazz often find ways to sneak into the late second round using cash to acquire someone’s unwanted pick. It was reasonable to expect the Jazz to try the same this year, especially since Ryan Smith has gone on record as being willing to bankroll the Jazz searching for depth that way. Notice, though, that no team traded draft picks for straight cash this year. The Jazz might have wanted to buy in, but it appears those pick-for-cash swaps weren’t available.

Instead, the Jazz focused on acquiring the rights to a handful of undrafted free agents, signing UCLA’s Johnny Juzand to a two-way deal and then inking Exhibit 10 deals (basically camp contracts) with a few others. With recent success stories involving undrafted players like Gary Payton II, Alex Caruso, and Fred VanVleet, there’s increasing optimism of finding impact players among the undrafted ranks. Is a player drafted in the 50s that much more likely to turn into a rotation player?

3) Why didn’t the Jazz trade for a veteran?

This is another reasonable expectation, simply because many veterans are traded on draft day. Usually.

This season was different. The only veterans traded on draft day this year were the three involved in salary-motivated maneuvers: Kemba Walker, Danny Green, and De’Anthony Melton. The Jazz aren’t in a position to absorb Walker’s salary, and Green will be recovering from injury. Melton was acquired in that Green move and cost the 23rd pick, a price the Jazz could not match.

Everyone else stayed put. That includes many of the names rumored to be connected to Utah:

The following players were NOT traded today: Gobert, Murray, Brogdon, Turner, Collins, Capela, Russell, Anunoby, Vucevic, Conley, Bogdanovic (x2), Smart, Hayward, Burton, M.Morris, E.Gordon, Kennard, Westbrook, Randle, Thybulle, C.Johnson, Barnes, Kuzma, KCP, Crowder, etc.

— David J. Smith (@davidjsmith1232) June 24, 2022

While trading veterans on before the draft makes sense since draft picks can even the scales, the market wasn’t busy this time.

4) What did the draft reveal about potential trade partners?

Let’s start with a caveat: navigating trade rumors requires a healthy dose of skepticism and caution. Measuring the validity of a trade rumor requires guesswork, and the truth is that most rumor sources are operating behind several layers of removal. Our Dan Clayton illustrated this with an example from last year:

Here’s a little lesson about trade rumors, as told through a parable…

Last summer, I had people from mutliple angles tell me a GSW-Jazz trade was imminent. These were all folks who were a couple of steps removed from the horse’s mouth, but they’d heard enough to be sure. 1/

— dan c. (@danclayt0n) June 23, 2022

That said, there’s a lot of smoke this offseason. It feels likely that some sort of shakeup happens, with the Jazz fairly likely to change a couple of high-level rotation roles. Let’s run through some of the rumored trade partners.

• Sacramento. The Kings took 6-foot-8 Keegan Murray over point guard Jaden Ivey. Could this point to increased availability of Harrison Barnes? The Kings are short on forwards, so interest in Bojan Bogdanovic or Royce O’Neale makes sense. I don’t think the No. 4 pick was ever in play for the Jazz.
• Washington. The Wizards are a logical landing spot for Mike Conley, and remain so. They kept their No. 10 pick, and if I were the Jazz, I’d be more interested in the Wizards players anyway. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, and Rui Hachimura are all intriguing fits and some combination of those players presents a good framework for a Conley deal that helps the Jazz get bigger and younger.
• New York. The Knicks appear to be maneuvering their cap space, presumably for a run at free agent Jalen Brunson. The Knicks lack the assets to make a compelling offer for Mitchell, and the rumor about moving Evan Fournier into Boston’s trade exception makes them a less likely Conley suitor. A trade with the Knicks feels unlikely.
• Charlotte. The Hornets need a center upgrade, and they drafted two centers in Jalen Duren and Mark Williams. I don’t see them as a compelling Gobert trade partner, and they seem less so now. And while they seem eager to trade Gordon Hayward, I wouldn’t count any Utah reunions. I remain interested in P.J. Washington if any deal can be made.
• Cleveland. The Cavs didn’t select a point guard and remain a potential Conley suitor, though they’re not flush with lengthy wings. Perhaps a multi-team deal is a possibility.
• Atlanta. We’ve heard plenty about the Gobert trade possibility — we’ll come back to that. The word is that John Collins remains likely to be traded. The Hawks drafted an offensive-minded wing in A.J. Griffin which could portend such a move. Whether or not Gobert is involved, the Hawks are an intriguing trade partner. One, they’re a franchise in need of a shakeup of their own. Two, they have multiple wings who could help Utah. Any of Collins, Kevin Huerter, and DeAndre Hunter would make the Jazz younger and longer.
• Chicago. The Bulls took 6-foot-7 Dalen Terry, who projects to be a solid role player from the get-go. Does Terry entice the Jazz at all in Gobert discussions? If I’m the Jazz, I’m not interested in Nikola Vucevic or Coby White, so who else can the Bulls offer in addition to Patrick Williams? Caruso or Lonzo Ball would bolster Utah’s perimeter defense, but there’s a massive talent gulf between Gobert and whoever the Bulls send back in a hypothetical deal.
• Minnesota. The Wolves have recently popped up in the list of teams interested in Gobert. It’s… interesting? I’d love to see how Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns fit just for curiosity’s sake. But I don’t see how the Wolves put together a compelling offer. They drafted 7-foot-1 Walker Kessler and 6-foot-6 Wendell Moore, but I wouldn’t count either as a big needle mover in trade talks.
• Toronto. While the Raptors picked up a 7-footer in Christian Koloko, they should still be in search of a starting center. If the Jazz do trade Gobert and want to remain competitive, the Raptors have some interesting pieces. For example, a framework centered around O.G. Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr gives the Jazz two solid starters. I still think this kind of deal takes the Jazz a step back, but it’s less risky than other rumored frameworks that feature wings still on rookie deals. It’s also noteworthy that the Raptors didn’t move Anunoby for a lottery pick as was rumored.

5) If the Jazz trade a veteran, who will it be?

The truth is, I don’t know. We’ve talked a lot about Gobert and Conley — a Conley trade seems more likely of the two. The Athletic’s Tony Jones has repeatedly said that the Jazz want to shift the point guard reins to Mitchell, which would in turn open the opportunity for a backcourt mate with more size and length. That could involve moving Conley to a bench role, but it makes a lot of sense to explore trades that bring back a starting-caliber wing.

Signs point to the Jazz exploring Gobert’s value, but the Jazz clearly value him highly themselves. Zach Lowe recently said so on his podcast. “Minnesota being reportedly linked to Gobert and Capela, I’ve heard that those links were exaggerated particularly in the case of Capela but that the interest in Gobert was semi-real but that Utah was asking for too much,” the ESPN scribe said. “I don’t think Utah got in the 50 yard line for any Gobert trade.”

The Jazz should ask for a lot in return for Gobert. My gut says he stays on the team, because he’s more likely to result in wins than potential trade returns. If the right offer comes along, it’s worth consideration, but the Jazz have no reason to trade Gobert at a discounted rate right now.

We haven’t talked much about Bogdanovic or O’Neale, and Jordan Clarkson’s name almost never comes up. All remain valuable to the Jazz, but should also draw interest from numerous teams. Similarly to Gobert, they shouldn’t be traded for the sake of making a move if the return isn’t sufficient. But I wouldn’t be shocked if any of them are dealt. The reality is that if the Jazz want to acquire a decent player, they’re going to have to send a decent player in return.

6) So when is a trade going to happen?

Free agency begins this Thursday afternoon. However you parse the trade rumors, it appears the Jazz have been active in some sense. They’re in a unique position: they’re already a talented team, they are in need of some kind of change, and yet their backs are not yet against the wall. I do think it’s very likely one of the core players are traded before July, but there are a few considerations:

• Increased clarity on a head coach decision could inform roster moves. For example, some candidates make more sense if Gobert is not moved and the Jazz are signaling a desire to compete. Incoming free agents will want to know how a coach envisions their role, and free agent signings overlap with trade needs.
• Every team in the league wants more wings. The Jerami Grant trade — to Portland for a single future first-rounder — impacts the market for veteran wings like Barnes and Collins. We’ll see which teams move first, and how the Kings and Hawks value their players. While the Jazz really need length, the competition will be fierce.
• A handful of teams are looking for veteran centers and point guards. Those teams may be waiting for other dominos to fall before upping their offer to the Jazz.
• The Jazz could be holding back on a move until they know what their $6.2m taxpayer mid-level exception and $9.7m trade exception might get them.

So even though a trade didn’t happen on draft night, a significant move could still be imminent — just don’t expect the Jazz to make a move for the sake of making a move. Prudence may be boring, but it is an important front office virtue.