Can John Collins make the Lauri Markkanen leap from last year?

Could health and a new partnership with Will Hardy revitalize John Collins’ career? (Francisco Kjolseth, The Salt Lake Tribune)

In a move that they almost had to do because of the low cost, the Utah Jazz kicked off their offseason by trading Rudy Gay and a future second round pick for former Atlanta Hawk John Collins. Collins had been in trade rumors seemingly every year since he signed a 5-year, $125 million contract with the Hawks, including interest from the Jazz. Despite the rumors, Collins appeared to remain professional through it all. As his role with the Hawks was lessened, his performance was certainly impacted. He went from averaging 21 points and 10 rebounds in the 2019-20 season, down to 15.5 points and 7 rebounds over the previous three. 

Being traded to the Utah Jazz and likely stepping back into a larger role like he originally had with the Hawks, we could see Collins take a leap back in production more in line to where he was in that 2019-20 season. The story of Collins reminds me of another current Jazzman, a player who was given room to shine after being a first-round pick, showed promise early, but then due to injuries started to become a second thought and saw his production suffer:

Lauri Markkanen.

Markkanen was drafted 7th overall in the 2017 draft by the Minnesota Timberwolves but was immediately traded to the Chicago Bulls as a part of the Jimmy Butler deal. Markkanen showed flashes and as a 21-year-old in his second season he averaged nearly 19 points and 9 rebounds. During the month of February those averages ballooned to 26 points and 12 rebounds per game. He season was cut short however due to concerns regarding a high heart rate. He then continued to miss games for a myriad of injuries over the next two season with Chicago, and after returning from a 12-game absense in his final season with the team, he was moved into a bench role. He was traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers where he did start 61 games and was able to get his first real opportunity to play the small forward position because the Cavs had both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

After his promising second season, Markkanen’s scoring and rebounding dipped to 14.3 points and 5.7 rebounds over the next three seasons. Clearly the talent was still there, but maybe he just needed the right situation and coach to unlock his full potential.

Then he was traded to Utah. Starting that summer with his play in the FIBA EuroBasket tournament, where he averaged 27.9 points, including a massive 43-point game verses Croatia, it was clear he could be in store for a bounce-back season. I don’t know if even the most optimistic Jazz fan could have anticipated the year he ended up having: 25.6 points per game to go with 8.6 rebounds, shooting 39 percent from three-point range, and earning his first All-star selection as a starter in Salt Lake City. 

To expect Collins to have that type of season is maybe too much to ask, but could he have a re-emergence as a 20-and-10 guy? A few things would have to happen, but a new environment could give him a fresh start. Throw in the pairing with impressive second-year coach Will Hardy, and Collins could be in for a big year. 

In the year that Collins averaged his 21 and 10, he was doing a few things extremely well that we would hope he can replicate with the Jazz. First, he had a career year with his three-point shooting. He shot 40 percent from three while attempting 3.6 per game. He actually shot better from above the arc as well, so he wasn’t just spotting up in the corner. He shot 37 percent from the corner and 40 percent from above the arc. Asking Collins to shoot 40 percent from three is likely asking too much, but prior to last season his career average was 37.6 percent from three. Then last season, thanks in large part to a mangled broken finger, that number plumbetted to just 29 percent. With the Jazz, I would expect him to be asked to space the floor a bit more by attempted closer to five three’s per game. If he can attempt a few more three-pointers while just getting back to his career average of 37 percent, that should provide a boost in his scoring average.

The next area is his rim finishing and shot attempts at the rim. During the 2019-20 campaign, Collins attempted 317 within 4ft of the basket. Since then, that number has steadily fallen and hit a career low of just 245 last season. He attempted only 39 percent of his shots at the rim last season, which was only in the 27th percentile amoung all bigs. When he gets to the rim, he is a fantastic finisher though. His career finishing at the rim is right around 75 percent. The Utah Jazz attempt a ton of three-pointers, but were only 24th in the NBA in attempts at the rim. I could see Collins fitting right in by not only upping his three-point attempts, but by also helping the Jazz put more pressure on the rim.

Especially above the rim. Between Kessler, Markkanen and Collins, this Jazz team is now loaded with lob threats. 

In his introductory interview, Collins share his excitement for a fresh start:

“It’s a big stress relief. Obviously, you know, my name has been in a lot of rumors and whatnot, and it hasn’t been easy. So it’s just been good to finally get it over with and, obviously, start anew in Utah. I’m really not trying to think about it too much, and just go for it and try to be the best player I can… I feel like I can be really successful here.”

I wouldn’t expect Collins to have the year Markkanen had last season, primarily because Markkanen is still on this Utah Jazz roster. But it is not hard to envision Collins having a similar re-emergence back into stardom. Behind Markkanen, he and Jordan Clarkson will likely be the next featured offensive scorers. In his 21 point scoring season, Collins attempted close to 15 shots per game. Last season, that number was all the way down to 10. Both Clarkson and Markkanen were at 17 shots per game, and surprisingly in third, Malik Beasley at 12.2. If Hardy can find an effective role for him and Clarkson and Collins split the shot attempts around 14 per game, with improved three-point shooting with a healthy finger, Collins should find success. My prediction? 18 points and 8 rebounds per game, with some of the best “In your face” dunks we’ve ever seen in a Jazz uniform.